Name: BEST OF MARGIN 第 4 次電話會議 - 高級合作伙伴緊急會議 (BEST of MARGIN CALL #4 - Senior Partners Emergency Meeting)
Uploaded: 2025-09-06T14:19:48.000Z
Duration: 9 min 49 s

動名詞

I must apologize for dragging you all here at such an uncommon hour, but from what I've been told, this matter needs to be dealt with urgently.

很抱歉這麼晚了還把大家叫來，不過據我所知，這件事急需處理。

So urgently, in fact, probably should have been addressed weeks ago, but that is spilt milk under the bridge.

事實上，這些問題本應在幾周前就得到解決，但現在卻如此緊迫。

So, why doesn't somebody tell me what they think is going on here?

那麼，為什麼沒有人告訴我他們認為這裡發生了什麼？

Mr. Tullda, as I mentioned earlier, if you compare the figure at the top of page 13...

圖爾達先生，正如我剛才提到的，如果您比較一下第 13 頁上面的數字...

賈裡德，現在說這些還太早了點。

In fact, I'd like to speak to the guy who put this together.

事實上，我很想和把這一切整理出來的人談談。

I'd like to speak with the analyst who seems to have stumbled across this mess.

我想和那位似乎是偶然發現了這個混亂局面的分析師談談。

That would be Peter Sullivan, right here.

那就是彼得-沙利文，就在這裡。

Maybe you could tell me what you think is going on here, and please, speak as you might to a young child or a golden retriever.

也許你可以告訴我你認為這裡發生了什麼，請像對小孩子或金毛尋回犬那樣說話。

It wasn't brains that got me here, I can assure you of that.

我可以向你保證，我不是靠腦子才來到這裡的。

Well, um, sir, as you may or may not know, I work here for Mr. Rogers as an associate in the risk assessment and management office at MBS.

嗯，先生，你可能知道，也可能不知道，我在羅傑斯先生這裡工作，是MBS風險評估和管理辦公室的助理。

Please, just relax, stand up, tell us in a clear voice what is the nature of the problem.

請放鬆，站起來，用清晰的聲音告訴我們問題的性質。

Okay, uh, well, as you probably know, over the last 36 to 40 months, the firm has begun packaging new MBS products that combine several different tranches of rating classification in one tradable security.

好吧，你們可能都知道，在過去的 36 到 40 個月裡，該公司已經開始包裝新的 MBS 產品，將幾個不同等級的評級分類組合在一個可交易的證券中。

This has been enormously profitable, as I imagine you noticed.

我想你們也注意到了，這已經帶來了巨大的收益。

Well, the firm is currently doing a considerable amount of this business every day.

目前，該公司每天都在開展大量此類業務。

Now, the problem, which is, I guess, why we are here tonight, is that it takes us, uh, about a month to layer these products correctly, thereby posing a challenge from a risk management standpoint.

現在的問題是，我想這也是我們今晚在這裡的原因，我們需要大約一個月的時間才能將這些產品正確分層，是以從風險管理的角度來看，這也是一個挑戰。

沙利文先生，這個挑戰是什麼？

Well, we have to hold these assets on our books longer than we might ideally like to.

是以，我們不得不在賬面上保留這些資產，而不是像理想中那樣。

But the key factor here is these are essentially just mortgages, so that has allowed us to push the leverage considerably beyond what you might be willing or allowed to do in any other circumstance, thereby pushing the risk profile without raising any red flags.

但這裡的關鍵因素是，這些本質上只是抵押貸款，是以我們可以將槓桿率大大提高，大大超出你在任何其他情況下可能願意或允許的槓桿率，從而在不引起任何警示的情況下提高風險狀況。

What I'm guessing your report here says, and give me some rope here.

我猜你的報告是這麼說的，給我點提示。

What I'm guessing it says is that, considering the, shall we say, bumpy road we've been on the last week or so, that the figures your brilliant co-workers up the line ahead of you have come up with don't make much sense anymore, considering what's taking place today.

我猜它說的是，考慮到過去一週左右我們所走過的，可以說是崎嶇不平的道路，考慮到今天所發生的事情，你前面的同事們所得出的數字已經沒有什麼意義了。

Actually, not what's taking place today, but what's already taken place over the last two weeks.

其實，不是今天發生的事情，而是過去兩週已經發生的事情。

So, you're saying this has already happened?

And, Mr. Sullivan, what does your model say that that means for us here?

沙利文先生，你的模型認為這對我們意味著什麼？

Well, that's where it becomes a projection.

好吧，這就是它成為投影的地方。

Well, sir, if those assets decrease by just 25% and remain on our books, that loss would be greater than the current market capitalization of this entire company.

好吧，先生，如果這些資產只減少 25%，而且還留在我們的賬簿上，那麼損失將超過整個公司目前的市值。

So, what you're telling me is that the music is about to stop, and we're going to be left holding the biggest bag of odorous excrement ever assembled in the history of capitalism.

所以，你的意思是說，音樂就要停止了，而我們將抱著資本主義歷史上最大的一袋臭烘烘的排洩物。

Sir, I'm not sure that I would put it that way, but let me clarify, using your analogy, what this model shows is the music, so to speak, just slowing.

先生，我不確定我是否會這麼說，但讓我澄清一下，用你的比喻來說，這個模型所顯示的是音樂，可以說，只是放慢了速度。

If the music were to stop, as you put it, then this model wouldn't be even close to that scenario.

如果像你說的那樣，音樂停止了，那麼這個模型就根本不可能出現這種情況。

沙利文先生，讓我告訴你一件事。

Do you care to know why I'm in this chair with you all?

你們想知道我為什麼和你們一起坐在這張椅子上嗎？

I'm here for one reason and one reason alone.

I'm here to guess what the music might do a week, a month, a year from now.

我在這裡是為了猜測一週、一個月、一年後的音樂走勢。

And standing here tonight, I'm afraid that I don't hear a thing.

今晚站在這裡，我恐怕什麼也聽不到。

So, now that we know the music has stopped, what can we do about it?

那麼，既然我們知道音樂已經停止，我們又能做些什麼呢？

Mr. Cohen, Ms. Robertson, I'm afraid I think this is where you are supposed to step back in.

科恩先生、羅伯遜女士，恐怕這時候你們應該退後一步。

Lord knows we've relied enough on Mr. Sullivan tonight.

天知道我們今晚已經夠依賴沙利文先生了

What have I told you since the first day you stepped into my office?

從你踏進我辦公室的第一天起，我就告訴過你什麼？

There are three ways to make a living in this business.

And although I like to think we have some pretty smart people in this building, it sure is a hell of a lot easier to just be first.

雖然我認為我們這棟大樓裡有不少聰明人，但做第一個肯定要容易得多。

Sam, I don't think you seem to understand what your boy here has just said.

山姆，我覺得你似乎沒聽懂你兒子剛才說的話。

Well, you call the traders in for the normal 6.30 meeting, and you be honest with them, because they're going to know it's the end either way.

好吧，你把交易員叫來參加 6 點半的例行會議，對他們實話實說，因為他們會知道不管怎樣都是個結局。

So you're going to have to throw them a bone and a pretty big one.

所以，你必須給他們一根骨頭，而且是一根很大的骨頭。

And then you've got to come out of the gate storming.

By 11 o'clock, all your trades have to be gone, because by lunchtime, word's going to be out.

到 11 點鐘，你所有的交易都必須結束，因為到午餐時間，消息就會傳出去。

And by 2 o'clock, you're going to be selling at 65 cents on the dollar, if you're lucky.

到了兩點鐘，如果運氣好的話，你能賣到 65 美分。

And then the feds are going to be in here, up your ass, trying to slow you down.

然後聯邦調查局的人就會來這裡 想方設法拖你後腿

They can slow you down. They can't stop you.

它們可以拖慢你的速度。它們無法阻止你。

But John, even if we manage to pull that off, and that's saying something, the real question is, who are we selling this to?

但約翰認為，即使我們能做到這一點（這還不算什麼），真正的問題是，我們要把它賣給誰？

Same people we've been selling it to for the last two years, and whoever else will buy it.

過去兩年我們一直在賣給同樣的人，還有其他願意買它的人。

But John, if you do this, you will kill the market for years. It's over.

但是約翰，如果你這麼做，你會扼殺市場好幾年。結束了

And you're selling something that you know has no value.

We are selling to willing buyers at the current fair market price, so that we may survive.

我們以當前公平的市場價格出售給有意願的買家，這樣我們才能生存下去。

You will never sell anything to any of those people ever again.

你再也不會向這些人出售任何東西了。

就是它了我告訴你，就是它了！

Jared, you've got till five to break this down and draw me up a plan.

賈裡德 五點前你得給我分析一下 給我制定一個計劃

Is there anybody else who knows what's in here at the moment, block by block?

還有誰知道這裡現在有什麼，一個街區一個街區的？