Name: "大多數人都不知道房價會發生什麼變化 (“Most People Have No Idea What’s About To Happen To House Prices”)
Uploaded: 2025-08-20T18:21:48.000Z
Duration: 15 min 43 s

過去簡單式

Am I the only one who is wondering why houses got so extremely expensive to the point where most people cannot afford one?

難道只有我一個人在想，為什麼房子會變得如此昂貴，以至於大多數人都買不起？

情態助動詞 A2

You could buy a house for 23 thousand dollars back in 1970.

在 1970 年，2.3 萬美元就能買一棟房子。

The exact same house today would cost you 500 thousand dollars.

今天，同樣的房子需要花費 50 萬美元。

Some people say that, as the price of houses kept increasing, so did the average income.

有人說，隨著房價不斷上漲，平均收入也在增加。

Well, let's simply take a look at the numbers.

好吧，讓我們簡單看看這些數字。

The median household income in the US was around 10 thousand dollars back in 1970, while the median house price was around 22 thousand dollars.

1970 年，美國家庭收入中位數約為 1 萬美元，而房價中位數約為 2.2 萬美元。

So the median house price was a little over twice the household income, which means that over the last 50 to 60 years, the median house prices increased twice faster than the median household income.

是以，房價中位數是家庭收入的兩倍多一點，這意味著在過去五六十年間，房價中位數的增長速度是家庭收入中位數的兩倍。

Why house prices grew much faster than household income?

為什麼房價增長速度遠高於家庭收入增長速度？

Who is buying all of these houses when housing got so extremely expensive?

房價如此昂貴，誰還會買這些房子？

And will housing ever become affordable again?

If you are ready, give this video a thumbs up and let's dive in.

如果您準備好了，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們一起深入瞭解。

Home ownership wasn't always popular in the United States.

在美國，居者有其屋並不總是很流行。

If you go back to 1970s, when it was much more affordable, it was less popular than it is today.

如果你回到 20 世紀 70 年代，那時的價格要便宜得多，但卻沒有今天這麼受歡迎。

It started growing after that, maybe because people realized that we have to buy a house.

也許是因為人們意識到我們必須要買房子，所以從那時起，我們的生意開始越做越大。

That's when the idea of home ownership probably started rising, but it peaked back in 1980s and started falling down.

自置居所的觀念可能就是從那時開始興起的，但在 20 世紀 80 年代達到頂峰後開始回落。

So if you are wondering what exactly has happened in 1980s that led to the collapse of the housing market, all you have to do is to take a look at the mortgage rates.

是以，如果你想知道 20 世紀 80 年代究竟發生了什麼導致了房地產市場的崩潰，你只需看看抵押貸款利率。

Back in 1975, mortgage rates were as much as they are today at around 7.5 percent, but then there was a high inflation back in 1980s and mortgage rates increased to around 20 percent.

1975 年，房貸利率和現在一樣，約為 7.5%，但上世紀 80 年代通貨膨脹嚴重，房貸利率上升到 20%左右。

So if you are complaining about mortgage rates today at around 7 to 8 percent, then you haven't lived back in 1980s and a single percentage in your mortgage rate is going to have massive influence in the price of the house that you buy.

是以，如果你抱怨現在的抵押貸款利率約為 7%至 8%，那麼你就沒有經歷過 20 世紀 80 年代的生活，抵押貸款利率的一個百分點都會對你所購買房屋的價格產生巨大影響。

Let's say for the sake of example, that you are going to buy a $300,000 house, $300,000 wouldn't actually get you much in a place like California or New York, but it's a decent amount of money to buy a house.

比方說，你要買一棟價值 30 萬美元的房子，在加州或紐約這樣的地方，30 萬美元實際上買不了多少東西，但買一棟房子還是一筆不錯的錢。

So at 3 percent interest rate, the total price of the house is going to be around $450,000, so you are overpaying by around $154,000 over a period of 30 years.

是以，按照 3% 的利率計算，房屋總價約為 450,000 美元，所以 30 年內您多付了約 154,000 美元。

If we take the exact same house, but at an interest rate of 7 percent, suddenly your monthly payments are going to grow to around $2,000.

如果我們選擇一模一樣的房子，但利率為 7%，那麼您的月供將突然增加到 2000 美元左右。

In a place like California or New York, where you can easily make 4-5 thousand dollars, it might not be a big problem, but you can't actually get a house for $300,000, you can only get for something really great or something really decent for at least a million dollars.

在加利福尼亞或紐約這樣的地方，你很容易就能賺到四五千美元，這可能不是什麼大問題，但實際上你不可能用 30 萬美元買到一棟房子，你只能用至少一百萬美元才能買到真正好的或真正像樣的房子。

In places where houses are around $300,000, so are incomes at around 3-4-5 thousand dollars at best.

在房價在 30 萬美元左右的地方，收入最多也就在 3-4-5 萬美元左右。

But look at what happens at the total price that you pay at the end of 30 years, it grows to around $718,000.

但看看 30 年後你所支付的總價，會增長到約 71.8 萬美元。

So you are paying more than double the price of the house, because the initial price is around $300,000, but this is the money that you pay, because your mortgage rate have increased to 7 percent.

是以，你要支付的錢是房價的兩倍多，因為最初的房價約為 30 萬美元，但這是你支付的錢，因為你的抵押貸款利率已提高到 7%。

And now let's compare that to what was happening back in 1980s when mortgage rates were 18 percent.

現在，讓我們將其與 20 世紀 80 年代抵押貸款利率為 18% 時的情況進行比較。

Your monthly payments would go to $4,000, in fact, it's 4 and a half thousand dollars, and the total price of the house will cost you at the end of 30 years, 1.6 million dollars.

你的月供將增加到 4000 美元，實際上是 450 美元，而 30 年後房子的總價將達到 160 萬美元。

So when you are buying a house, the most important factor that you should be paying attention to isn't always just the price of the house, but the mortgage you get.

是以，在購買房屋時，您最應該關注的因素並不總是房屋的價格，而是您獲得的抵押貸款。

Even a single percentage will cost you hundreds of thousands of dollars.

即使是一個百分比，也會讓你損失數十萬美元。

And now imagine if you are buying not a $300,000 house, but you are actually buying a million dollar house, the difference is going to be substantially bigger.

現在想象一下，如果你買的不是 30 萬美元的房子，而是一百萬美元的房子，那麼差價就會大大增加。

And here is where everything gets interesting, around 60 to 80 percent of all the houses that are being purchased in the entire United States are being financed by a bank.

有趣的是，全美國約有 60% 至 80% 的房屋是由銀行貸款購買的。

Most people cannot afford to buy a house, that was the case back in the 1970s, 80s, and that's the case today.

大多數人買不起房子，上世紀七八十年代是這樣，今天也是這樣。

So when an average person goes to buy a house, they don't go with a suitcase of cash in order to buy that house, they would go to the bank, get a mortgage, and then buy that house.

是以，當一個普通人去買房子時，他們不會帶著一箱現金去買房子，而是會去銀行辦理抵押貸款，然後再買房子。

That's the vast majority of the United States.

So when mortgage rates started going down over the next couple of decades, it seems great, people buying houses, people making a lot of money, and everybody is getting rich.

是以，在接下來的幾十年裡，當抵押貸款利率開始下降時，人們買房，人們賺大錢，每個人都發財了，這似乎很不錯。

That's exactly what we want in the United States to happen, everybody can afford a house.

這正是我們希望在美國發生的事情，每個人都能買得起房子。

But it turned out into a complete disaster that almost wiped out the entire US economy.

但結果卻是一場徹底的災難，幾乎摧毀了整個美國經濟。

By the year 2004 and 2005, mortgage rates were at around 5 percent, which is actually not really fantastic compared to what we got in 2020 and 2021, but that's way better than 10, 12 or 15 percent.

到 2004 年和 2005 年，抵押貸款利率約為 5%，與 2020 年和 2021 年的利率相比，這其實並不算高，但總比 10%、12% 或 15%要好得多。

Mortgages became so popular back in the days that in 2006, 92 percent of all the houses in the market have been financed by a bank.

抵押貸款在當時非常流行，2006 年，市場上 92% 的房屋都是通過銀行貸款的。

So 9 out of 10 houses that are being purchased in the market have been backed by a bank.

是以，在市場上購買的房屋中，每 10 套就有 9 套得到了銀行的支持。

Wall street started taking these mortgages, they packed them in a really great package and started selling them as securities to other investors.

華爾街開始接受這些抵押貸款，把它們包裝得非常漂亮，然後開始把它們作為證券賣給其他投資者。

Those securities have been selling like cakes.

So because the demand for these securities were so high, the banks kept giving more and more loans to the point where the entire market was financed by a bank.

是以，由於對這些證券的需求如此之高，銀行不斷提供越來越多的貸款，以至於整個市場都由銀行提供資金。

Everyone believed that, we can keep giving these loans, as long as there is demand for these houses, to the point where one day everybody will have a house in the United States and houses no longer will be a problem, everyone can afford right now.

每個人都相信，只要對這些房子有需求，我們就可以繼續發放這些貸款，直到有一天，每個人都能在美國擁有一棟房子，房子不再是問題，每個人現在都能買得起。

But then the 2008 financial crisis actually happened.

但是，2008 年的金融危機真的發生了。

The crash of the housing market led to the collapse of the banks because nobody is actually paying their mortgages right now.

房地產市場的崩潰導致了銀行的倒閉，因為現在實際上沒有人在支付他們的抵押貸款。

And when people stopped paying their mortgages, the banks actually collapsed.

當人們停止支付抵押貸款時，銀行實際上已經倒閉了。

When the banks collapsed, they took down with it the entire economy.

當銀行倒閉時，整個經濟也隨之崩潰。

When the entire US economy went down, it took with it the entire global economy.

當整個美國經濟下滑時，整個全球經濟也隨之下滑。

So the 2008 financial crisis didn't just hurt the United States, it hurt the entire world, especially when we talk about Europe, whose economy very depends a lot on the US economy.

是以，2008 年的金融危機不僅傷害了美國，還傷害了整個世界，尤其是當我們談到歐洲時，因為歐洲經濟在很大程度上依賴於美國經濟。

It didn't literally hurt much China, because China was actually at its prime and it was growing tremendously.

這對中國的傷害並不大，因為當時的中國正處於鼎盛時期，發展勢頭迅猛。

They didn't see the outcome or the consequences of the 2008 financial crisis, even though that they suffered to a certain extent as well.

他們沒有看到 2008 年金融危機的結果或後果，儘管他們也在一定程度上遭受了損失。

The blue color is monthly supply of new houses in the US.

And as you can see that, as the demand for houses back in the year 2000 started growing, so did the supply.

可以看到，隨著 2000 年住房需求的增長，供應量也在不斷增加。

Everybody saw an opportunity to build a house.

When you see that people want houses, you as a builder start a business in order to build a house.

當你看到人們需要房屋時，作為建築商，你就會為了建造房屋而開始創業。

If you have a business, you realize that there is demand for houses, you start building more houses.

如果你有一家企業，你意識到對房屋有需求，你就會開始建造更多的房屋。

And the demand or the supply of houses back in 2006 and 2007 went tremendously high.

2006 年和 2007 年的房屋需求量或供應量非常大。

It has never been as high as it was back in 2007.

And then in 2010, it collapsed and nobody wants actually to build new houses because nobody was actually buying houses.

然後到了 2010 年，房地產崩盤，沒有人願意建造新房，因為實際上沒有人買房。

When the government realized that the housing market is crushing the entire economy, they had to step in and do something.

當政府意識到房地產市場正在壓垮整個經濟時，他們必須介入並做些什麼。

First of all, we have to save all of these corporations that are actually being drowning in all of these debts, especially when you talk a lot about the banks.

首先，我們必須拯救所有這些被債務淹沒的企業，尤其是當你談到銀行時。

And what does the government knows how to do the best?

That is the best thing that the government can do.

The Fed printed 3.7 trillion dollars in quantitative easing program.

美聯儲在量化寬鬆計劃中印製了 3.7 萬億美元。

The second program was Emergency Lending Program.

But since 6 trillion dollars was already a lot of money, the government started creating new type of programs in order not to call it direct printing money, but they actually started loaning and lending money to the economy or injecting money to the economy through different kind of programs.

但是，由於 6 萬億美元已經是一筆不小的數目，政府開始制定新的計劃，雖然不能說是直接印鈔票，但實際上他們開始貸款給經濟，或者通過不同的計劃向經濟注入資金。

One of these programs was TARP, Troubled Asset Relief Program. 700 billion dollars throw it into the economy and save these assets.

其中一項計劃是TARP，即問題資產救助計劃。7000 億美元投入經濟，拯救這些資產。

Another popular program was American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, where the government directly started investing in businesses at around 831 trillion dollars.

另一項廣受歡迎的計劃是《美國復甦與再投資法案》，政府直接開始向企業投資約 831 萬億美元。

If you take all other programs individually and combine them in total, they would worth around 2 trillion dollars.

如果將所有其他項目單獨計算，其總價值約為 2 萬億美元。

So if you look at all these numbers, suddenly you realize that the government printed something between 8 to 10 trillion dollars.

是以，如果你看一下所有這些數字，你會突然意識到政府印製了 8 到 10 萬億美元的東西。

The median house price back in 2007 was around 257 thousand dollars and it fell to a little over 200 thousand dollars.

2007 年的房價中位數約為 25.7 萬美元，現在已降至 20 多萬美元。

If the government did not step in and the market was flooded with more houses but very little demand, prices would have actually fallen to the point where everybody could buy a house.

如果政府不介入，市場上充斥著更多的房屋，但需求卻很少，那麼房價實際上會下降到人人都能買到房子的地步。

People with an income of 1 year could take their income and simply buy a house.

有 1 年收入的人可以用他們的收入直接買房。

That could be the situation back in the days, but the government did not allow that to happen by over flooding the market with so much money.

這可能是當年的情況，但政府並沒有允許這種情況發生，而是讓大量資金充斥市場。

And all of these trillions of dollars didn't actually fix the problem, because for the next 8 years or so, home ownership kept falling down.

而所有這些數萬億美元實際上並沒有解決問題，因為在接下來的 8 年左右時間裡，住房擁有率一直在下降。

And back in 2016 when the shift happened and home ownership began to rise.

而早在 2016 年，轉變就已經發生，住房所有權開始上升。

This was 2020 when they actually dropped the interest rates to almost like 0 percent and you could get a mortgage for like 2.5 percent.

那是 2020 年，利率幾乎降到了 0%，你可以用 2.5%的利率獲得抵押貸款。

In 2008, the government decided that we have to take a long list of actions in order to make sure that the US economy is not going to suffer something like that again.

2008 年，政府決定我們必須採取一系列行動，以確保美國經濟不再遭受類似的損失。

They introduced some regulations or maybe a lot of regulations that made it much harder to build.

他們出臺了一些規定，或許是很多規定，使得建造難度大大增加。

If you want to build a house, then you have to do A, B, C, D.

如果你想建一棟房子，那麼你必須做 A、B、C、D。

In these cities, you can only build these kind of houses.

在這些城市裡，你只能建造這樣的房子。

These are extra safety measures that you have to do.

這些都是您必須採取的額外安全措施。

But before building a house, you have to take permits.

但在建房之前，你必須獲得許可。

And these permits will take forever for you to actually take them.

而這些許可證需要你花很長時間才能真正拿到。

And it's not just one permit, 2, 3, 4, 5 and for every single thing.

這不僅僅是一個許可證，還有 2、3、4、5 以及每一件事的許可證。

So when you are doing business and building houses, suddenly the cost of building a house is going to rise because of these permits.

是以，當你在做生意和建房時，由於這些許可證的存在，建房成本會突然上升。

Suddenly you have to follow these regulations, which makes the cost even much higher and house prices are going down.

突然之間，你必須遵守這些規定，這使得成本大大增加，而房價卻在下降。

Suddenly you will abandon this business and you will do something that is much more profitable.

突然之間，你就會放棄這個行業，去做更賺錢的事情。