Name: 機不可失，時不再來 (An Opportunity Like This Won't Come Again)
Uploaded: 2025-08-08T18:19:03.000Z
Duration: 23 min 41 s

形容詞最高級

I have been in the market for over 10 years, and this is probably one of the greatest opportunities that I have ever seen in the entire time that I have been in the market.

我已經在市場上摸爬滾打了 10 多年，這可能是我在市場上摸爬滾打的這段時間裡見過的最好的機會之一。

Usually what happens is that when there is any kind of crisis, it happens in an instant.

通常情況下，任何危機都是瞬間發生的。

現在完成式

And only the real professional investors who have been preparing for that crash and could see that crash could have actually prepared for that crash and took advantage out of it.

而只有那些真正的專業投資者，他們一直在為那場暴跌做準備，並能預見到那場暴跌，才能真正為那場暴跌做好準備，並從中獲利。

Just take any crisis in the last 100 years, the 2008 financial crisis, the 1999 dot com bubble or even the 2020 covid, a lot of people or a lot of professional investors took advantage out of it.

就拿過去 100 年中的任何一場危機來說，2008 年的金融危機、1999 年的網絡保麗龍，甚至 2020 年的科維德危機，都有很多人或很多專業投資者從中獲利。

Now, the problem with taking advantage out of the crisis is because if you don't know that it's happening pretty soon, there is no way for you to prepare for it.

現在，從危機中獲益的問題在於，如果你不知道危機很快就會發生，你就沒有辦法做好準備。

Just go back to 2008, Michael Burry took advantage out of it because he was actually looking at that crisis and he knew that it is happening and he started shorting the entire real estate market.

回溯到 2008 年，邁克爾-伯裡（Michael Burry）利用了這一機會，因為他實際上一直在關注這場危機，他知道危機正在發生，於是他開始做空整個房地產市場。

But the crisis that we have right now is literally happening so slowly and it's so predictable that you know for a fact that anybody can actually make a lot of money out of this crisis.

但是，我們現在面臨的危機發生得如此緩慢，而且可以預見，任何人都可以從這場危機中賺大錢。

So here in this video, I'm going to explain to you why this is probably the most predictable crisis that we actually have had seen in the entire history, probably of the stock market and why the crash is still happening even though it's so predictable.

是以，在這段視頻中，我將向大家解釋，為什麼這可能是我們在整個歷史上，可能是股市歷史上最容易預測的危機，以及為什麼在如此容易預測的情況下，暴跌仍在發生。

So if you are ready, let's get right into it.

所以，如果你準備好了，就讓我們開始吧。

There is an economic war going on between China and the United States, and that's not a surprise.

中美之間正在進行一場經濟戰爭，這並不令人意外。

It's literally an economic war because the United States have already imposed 245% tariffs on China.

這簡直就是一場經濟戰爭，因為美國已經對中國徵收了 245% 的關稅。

There are, of course, some exemptions, but 245% tariff literally means that there is no any kind of trade that is going to be between those two countries.

當然，也有一些豁免，但 245% 的關稅實際上意味著這兩個國家之間不會有任何貿易往來。

At the end of the day, one of the reasons that those US companies moved manufacturing outside China is because, because of the infrastructure that China has built and because the cost of labor in China is significantly lower than the United States, they could build those things at scale at a fraction of the price that they could do them in the United States.

歸根結底，這些美國公司將製造業轉移到中國之外的原因之一是，由於中國已經建立了基礎設施，而且中國的勞動力成本大大低於美國，是以他們可以以在美國生產的一小部分價格大規模生產這些產品。

But when you have to pay a 250% tax to get into the United States, then there is essentially no trade between those two countries.

但是，當你必須支付 250% 的稅才能進入美國時，這兩個國家之間基本上就沒有貿易往來了。

And part of the reason that is happening is because United States is trying to raise the stakes as much as possible in order to have the best negotiation leverage when it comes to the negotiations.

出現這種情況的部分原因是，美國正試圖儘可能提高賭注，以便在談判時獲得最佳的談判籌碼。

At the end of the day, they will actually sign a trade deal.

最後，他們會真正簽署一份貿易協議。

And that's why the markets are reacting very strangely.

這就是市場反應非常奇怪的原因。

If you look at the S&P 500, it has already crashed by about 18% in the last month or two, or probably since the day that they call it liberation day, the 2nd of April that's supposed to liberate the United States.

如果你看看標準普爾500指數，在過去的一兩個月裡，它已經下跌了大約18%，或者說，可能是從他們稱之為解放日的那天起，也就是4月2日，這一天應該是解放美國的日子。

If you look at the Nasdaq, it's much worse than that, the crash has been at around 18%.

如果你看看納斯達克指數，情況要比這糟糕得多，暴跌幅度一直在 18% 左右。

Now if you compare this number to what happened in 2020, it's pretty close to that, because in 2020, the crash was around 30%.

現在，如果把這個數字與 2020 年的情況相比，就非常接近了，因為 2020 年的崩潰率約為 30%。

So on one side, you have 18%, on the other side, you have like 30%.

Now the difference is that we're not over yet with this crash.

現在不同的是，這次撞車事件還沒有結束。

It could actually get significantly worse than it's right now.

實際上，情況可能會比現在更糟。

But 18% isn't actually the worst, because if you compare this number to the lowest point that we got in April, then that crash is probably closer to 25% or maybe even 30%.

但事實上，18% 並不是最糟糕的，因為如果把這個數字與 4 月份的最低點相比，那麼那次暴跌可能接近 25%，甚至 30%。

So you can confidently say that the crash that we are having right now is as big as the crash of covid, and if it continues throughout the entire 2025, then there is a very great chance that this crash is going to be way worse than covid.

是以，你可以自信地說，我們現在所經歷的崩盤與科維德的崩盤一樣大，如果這種情況持續到整個 2025 年，那麼這次崩盤很有可能比科維德的崩盤還要嚴重。

And there is a good possibility of that happening.

But it's not just the United States that is imposing all of these tariffs, there is always going to be retaliation, especially when you are talking about one of the largest countries in the world, which is called China, the second world's largest economy.

但是，不僅僅是美國在徵收這些關稅，總會有報復的，尤其是當你談論的是世界上最大的國家之一--中國，世界第二大經濟體的時候。

And that's why, since they retaliated, US companies are losing billions of dollars.

這就是為什麼自從他們實施報復以來，美國公司損失了數十億美元。

And there was always this mentality that US companies, after conquering the market in the United States, they can go to the world's second largest market, which is China, and start selling there, and that's how they will make billions of dollars in extra profits that is going to raise their valuations in the market.

人們總是抱著這樣一種心態，認為美國公司在征服了美國市場之後，就可以到世界第二大市場，也就是中國，開始在那裡銷售，這樣他們就可以賺取數十億美元的額外利潤，從而提高他們在市場上的估值。

But because of these tariffs, NVIDIA is predicting that it is going to lose 5.5 billion dollars worth of sales that they could actually could got from China, but because of these tariffs, they cannot possibly do that.

但由於這些關稅，英偉達預計將失去價值 55 億美元的銷售額，而這些銷售額本可以從中國獲得，但由於這些關稅，他們不可能做到這一點。

Because China retaliated to the United States, and right now, the tariffs on Chinese goods or the US goods are 125%.

因為中國對美國進行了報復，現在，中國商品或美國商品的關稅是 125%。

Now, they haven't actually risen to 250% like the United States did, because there is no point in that, nobody is going to buy those chips or any kind of products when you have to pay a 225% in tariffs, or even anything more than 100% makes no sense.

現在，關稅實際上並沒有像美國那樣上升到 250%，因為這樣做毫無意義，如果你必須支付 225% 的關稅，沒有人會購買這些芯片或任何種類的產品，甚至任何超過 100%的關稅都沒有意義。

Like have you wondered why there are no Chinese EVs in the United States, even though the Chinese EVs are significantly cheaper than US EVs, and that's because there has always been a tariff of 100%.

比如你有沒有想過，為什麼美國沒有中國的電動汽車，儘管中國的電動汽車比美國的電動汽車便宜得多，那是因為美國一直徵收100%的關稅。

If you remove that tariff, suddenly we have a flood of Chinese EVs into the US market, and companies such as Tesla are going to go bankrupt and out of business, and not a single auto car manufacturer in the United States can compete with China when it comes to EVs.

如果取消這一關稅，中國電動汽車就會突然湧入美國市場，特斯拉等公司就會破產倒閉，美國沒有一家汽車製造商能在電動汽車方面與中國競爭。

Chinese airlines to stop buying or suspend the deliveries of Boeing.

中國航空公司停止購買或暫停交付波音飛機。

And the Chinese consumer market is one of the largest markets for Boeing, so don't be surprised if you look at the Boeing stock price and it's going down, because suddenly they have actually prevented themselves from having hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue over the next 5 to 10 years, since as the Chinese economy is developing and more people are flying, the Chinese airlines are buying hundreds of planes from the United States, and where else are you going to get your planes, it's either Boeing from the United States or Airbus from the European Union.

中國消費市場是波音公司最大的市場之一，是以，如果你看到波音公司的股價下跌，不要感到驚訝，因為突然之間，他們實際上阻止了自己在未來 5 到 10 年內獲得數千億美元的收入，因為隨著中國經濟的發展和越來越多的人乘坐飛機，中國的航空公司正在從美國購買數百架飛機，你還能從哪裡獲得飛機呢，要麼是美國的波音公司，要麼是歐盟的空中客車公司。

Yes, China is manufacturing their own planes, but still, it's not that that pays Boeing, because Boeing have been in the market far longer than any Chinese aircraft producer.

是的，中國正在製造自己的飛機，但這仍然不是波音公司的專利，因為波音公司在市場上的時間遠遠長於中國的任何飛機制造商。

And that's why the stock market have actually already lost like 9.6 trillion dollars worth of wealth since the inauguration date, since president Trump has taken office.

這就是為什麼自特朗普總統就職以來，股市實際上已經損失了價值 9.6 萬億美元的財富。

Of course, some of that wealth have already been recovered, but overall, it's over 5 trillion dollars.

當然，其中一些財富已經收回，但總體而言，已超過 5 萬億美元。

Right now, it's something between like 5 to 7 trillion dollars, and it is going to get a lot worse than that, most likely, until a deal is going to be reached.

現在，資金大約在 5 到 7 萬億美元之間，在達成協議之前，情況很可能會比這更糟。

I wouldn't be surprised if Trump is going to keep escalating this crisis in order to push their Chinese counterparts and come to the negotiation table, because Trump doesn't want to pick up the phone and call Xi Jinping and ask him for a deal, the one who is going to surrender first is going to accept the terms of the stronger side.

如果特朗普為了逼迫中國同行走上談判桌而不斷升級這場危機，我也不會感到驚訝，因為特朗普並不想拿起電話打給習近平，要求他達成協議，誰先投降，誰就會接受強勢一方的條件。

So if China is going to call United States first and they will ask for a deal, then the United States can simply just unleash all the terms that they want.

是以，如果中國先打電話給美國，要求達成協議，那麼美國就可以隨心所欲地開出所有條件。

We want the entire Chinese consumer market, and that will be great for the US companies.

我們想要整個中國的消費市場，這對美國公司來說是件好事。

But if the United States is going to pick up the phone first and call China, then it is going to be disastrous for China, or I mean, for the United States, because it will be a sign to China that the United States is about to give up.

但是，如果美國首先拿起電話打給中國，那麼這對中國來說將是災難性的，或者我是說，對美國來說將是災難性的，因為這將向中國發出美國即將放棄的信號。

But United States is far more powerful economically than China, and that's why the US is not going to make the first call, which is why it's most likely going to be China.

但美國的經濟實力遠遠超過中國，這就是為什麼美國不會首先做出決定，這就是為什麼最有可能做出決定的是中國。

But the greatest news is that Trump made it clear that this trade war isn't about war, this trade war is about making a deal.

但最大的消息是，特朗普明確表示，這場貿易戰不是戰爭，而是要達成協議。

So the end game of this trade war is actually making a deal with China even if it doesn't seems like that.

是以，這場貿易戰的最終結果實際上是與中國達成協議，即使看起來並不是這樣。

I know that all of this seems catastrophic right now, but the final goal is to make a deal with China no matter what.

我知道這一切現在看起來都是災難性的，但最終目標是無論如何都要與中國達成協議。

Because stopping the global trade is going to hurt everybody.

因為停止全球貿易會傷害所有人。

That includes the United States, that includes China, the European Union, everybody.

這包括美國、中國、歐盟和所有人。

The United States wants the global trade to continue, it just wants to tweak the rules slightly so that the rules continue working in the favor of the United States.

美國希望全球貿易繼續下去，只是希望稍微調整一下規則，使規則繼續對美國有利。

And that's why the deal is going to be reached.

The question is that when will that deal is going to be reached?

問題是，什麼時候才能達成協議？

Is it going to be within the next couple of weeks, maybe the next couple of months, or maybe by the end of the year, or maybe by the end of the next year?

是在接下來的幾周內，還是在接下來的幾個月內，還是在今年年底前，還是在明年年底前？

The same thing is being said about China.

The president of China or the chairman of the Communist Party of China, Xi Jinping, also says that China is willing to be a partner and a friend to the United States.

中國國家主席或中國共產黨主席習近平也表示，中國願意成為美國的夥伴和朋友。

He made it clear that we're not trying to overthrow the United States, we're not trying to replace the United States, we're not trying to take this place of the United States.

他明確表示，我們不是要推翻美國，不是要取代美國，不是要取而代之。

Being a global leader is not a joke, it's not something that you can easily do unless you're economically so powerful, so superior, that you can actually take that role on you.

成為全球領袖並不是一個玩笑，除非你的經濟實力非常強大，非常優越，能夠真正承擔起這個角色，否則這並不是一件容易做到的事情。

And China is not in a position to do that.

Maybe they want to do that sometime in the future, maybe 20 years from now, 30 years from now, but not now.

也許他們想在未來的某個時候這樣做，也許是 20 年後，也許是 30 年後，但不是現在。

So they're sending a very clear message, we're also ready to make a deal.

是以，他們發出了一個非常明確的資訊：我們也準備好做交易了。

But China understands that this deal is extremely important, which is why they don't want to surrender easily and they want to literally also escalate it as much as Trump is escalating it so that when they come to the negotiation table, they have something to give in order to get something more.

但中國明白，這項協議極其重要，是以他們不想輕易投降，而且他們也希望像特朗普一樣將協議升級，這樣當他們來到談判桌前時，他們就能有所付出，從而獲得更多。

China even said that China never bets against the United States and has no intention to do that.

中國甚至表示，中國從不與美國打賭，也無意與美國打賭。

But that could actually be a strategy from the art of the war, which is one of the best books that I have ever read.

但實際上，這可能是《孫子兵法》中的一個策略，而《孫子兵法》是我讀過的最好的書之一。

If you want to read the book, go and read the art of the war.

如果你想讀這本書，那就去讀《戰爭的藝術》吧。

That book is literally going to provide you with the best strategies on war.

這本書將為您提供最好的戰爭策略。

It literally tells you how you should actually do war.

它實實在在地告訴你，你應該如何進行戰爭。

And one of the best quotes from that book is that appear weak when you are strong and strong when you are weak.

這本書中最精彩的一句話是：當你強大時，你會顯得軟弱；當你軟弱時，你會顯得強大。

And maybe that's exactly what China is trying to do here.

It's trying to appear like it's weak, when in reality, it could actually be strong.

它試圖讓自己看起來很弱，而實際上，它可能很強。

Because the best way to win any war, and it doesn't matter what kind of war we are talking about, is to the supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.

因為贏得任何戰爭的最佳方式，不管我們談論的是哪種戰爭，都是不戰而屈人之兵，這才是最高的戰爭藝術。

The best way for you to win any kind of war is to finish that war without even fighting, without actually starting that war in the first place.

要想贏得任何一場戰爭，最好的辦法就是不戰而屈人之兵，從一開始就不發動戰爭。

Because at the end of the day, even if you're a stronger side in that war, you're going to lose something.

因為到最後，即使你是戰爭中更強大的一方，你也會失去一些東西。

So if you can actually reach a deal without picking any kind of fight, then you have won.

是以，如果你能在不挑起任何爭執的情況下達成交易，那麼你就贏了。

And that's why China is sending the signals that we know that we are powerful, but we want to make a deal.

正因如此，中國發出了這樣的信號：我們知道我們很強大，但我們想達成協議。

And if that means that saying that the United States is such a powerful country, and you're not trying to bet against the United States, we will say that.

如果這意味著說美國是一個如此強大的國家，而你並不想與美國對賭，我們就會這麼說。

But we want this deal, because the current global order, even though that it has benefited the United States mostly, it has also benefited mostly China.

但我們希望達成這項協議，因為當前的全球秩序雖然主要有利於美國，但也主要有利於中國。

Because without this global world order that we have seen over the last, I don't know how many years, probably the last 50 to 60 years has also mainly benefited China as well.

因為如果沒有這種全球世界秩序，在過去，我不知道有多少年，大概是過去的 50 到 60 年裡，我們所看到的主要受益者也是中國。

If it wasn't for this global world order, China wouldn't be in the position that they are right now.

如果沒有這個全球世界秩序，中國就不會有現在的地位。

Because China hasn't been this powerful probably in the last 2 to 3 centuries.

因為中國可能在過去兩三個世紀都沒有這麼強大過。

And this global world order has allowed China to build the second most powerful economy in the world, and right now they can project power to the rest of the world.

這種全球世界秩序使中國成為世界上第二強大的經濟體，現在他們可以向世界其他國家投射力量。

So the deal that both countries are going to make right now is going to reshape the next 20 to 30 years, maybe even the next 40 years.

是以，兩國現在要達成的協議將重塑未來 20 到 30 年，甚至是未來 40 年的格局。

So if you're going to make such an important deal that is going to reshape how your country is going to look like in 40 years from now, are you going to rush into that deal?

所以，如果你要做一筆如此重要的交易，它將重塑你的國家 40 年後的面貌，你會匆忙達成這筆交易嗎？

Or you are going to use every single leverage or power that you have in order to get into this deal with the most powerful tools that you have and get your terms?

或者，你打算利用你所擁有的每一個籌碼或力量，以你所擁有的最強大的工具進入這筆交易，並獲得你的條件？

Because United States understands that if the trend continues the way that the previous global world order was, then China would have overtaken it.

因為美國明白，如果按照以前的全球世界秩序的趨勢發展下去，那麼中國就會超越它。

Because China has mastered this game even better than the United States, even though that the United States benefits enormously.

因為中國比美國更善於玩這個遊戲，儘管美國從中獲益匪淺。

Without the current world order, you have to understand that the current world order was built first by the United States after 1945, and after the cold war when the Soviet Union was collapsed, it was clear that the United States is the final winner of this global world order.

如果沒有當前的世界秩序，你就必須明白，當前的世界秩序是美國在1945年後首先建立起來的，冷戰後蘇聯解體，美國顯然是這個全球世界秩序的最後贏家。

But China has mastered the game so much that they were on the way to actually take over the United States.

但是，中國已經完全掌握了這個遊戲，以至於他們即將真正接管美國。

And that's why both sides will keep escalating.

這就是為什麼雙方會不斷升級。

Now their escalation are going to keep hitting the stock market.

現在，他們的行動升級將不斷衝擊股市。

Their escalations are going to force those investors to sell their investments.

他們的升級將迫使這些投資者出售他們的投資。

See, if you're investing with a couple of thousands of dollars, it makes no sense, even if you're investing with a few million dollars.

你看，如果你用幾千美元投資，即使你用幾百萬美元投資，也沒有任何意義。

But let's say we're talking about some hedge funds with hundreds of billions of dollars.

但假設我們談論的是一些擁有數千億美元的對沖基金。

We're talking about sovereign wealth of some countries that are over a trillion dollars.

我們談論的是一些國家超過萬億美元的主權財富。

They cannot afford to take such a risk, even if it looks very clear that this is just a negotiation tactic.

他們承擔不起這樣的風險，即使這看起來很明顯只是一種談判策略。

They have investors to be accountable to.

They have entire countries to be accountable to.

So because they are managing such a huge amount of money, their tolerance for risk is much much smaller.

是以，由於他們管理著如此鉅額的資金，他們對風險的承受能力要小得多。

字幕列表影片播放

機不可失，時不再來 (An Opportunity Like This Won't Come Again)

literally

entire

opportunity

access