Name: 戰爭越打經濟越好？烏俄戰爭開打超過三年，普丁遲遲不收手的原因何在？ (How Much Longer Can War Prop Up Russia's Economy? | WSJ)
Uploaded: 2025-08-06T21:01:30.000Z
Duration: 5 min 32 s

Despite more than three years of war, huge military expenses and waves of sanctions,

儘管戰爭持續了三年多，軍費開支巨大，制裁一波接一波，

俄羅斯的經濟似乎正在蓬勃發展。

But as President Trump threatens harsh economic sanctions…

但是，由於美國總統川普威脅要實施嚴厲的經濟制裁...

We just don't see any progress being made.

…and cracks begin to show, how long can it last?

......開始出現裂縫，還能持續多久？

War's been a huge stimulus for the Russian economy, but they can't continue doing this forever.

戰爭極大地刺激了俄羅斯的經濟，但他們不可能永遠這樣做下去。

Since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has ramped up its military spending.

自全面入侵烏克蘭以來，莫斯科加大了軍費開支。

If we go back to 2022, Russian defence spending was about $50 billion a year.

如果我們回到 2022 年，俄羅斯每年的國防開支約為 500 億美元。

They are now spending close to $150 billion a year on their military.

他們現在每年的軍費開支接近 1500 億美元。

As the war continues, President Trump has vowed to turn up the economic pressure on Moscow, threatening tariffs and secondary sanctions if a ceasefire isn't reached.

隨著戰爭的持續，川普總統誓言要加大對莫斯科的經濟壓力，威脅說如果不能達成停火，將徵收關稅並實施二級制裁。

Russia could be so rich right now, instead they spend all their money on war.

俄羅斯現在本可以富得流油，但他們卻把錢都花在了戰爭上。

They spend everything on war and killing people and it doesn't make sense.

他們把一切都花在戰爭和殺戮上，這毫無意義。

But Russia has shown it can adapt to economic pressure.

但俄羅斯已經證明，它能夠適應經濟壓力。

Since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it has become the most sanctioned major economy on the planet.

自全面入侵烏克蘭以來，它已成為全球受制裁最多的主要經濟體。

We had statements from Western leaders like turning the ruble to rubble.

西方領導人曾發表聲明，說要把盧布變成廢墟。

This was intended to bring the Russian economy to a complete halt.

這樣做的目的是使俄羅斯經濟完全停頓下來。

It was meant to make the continuation of the war completely unpalatable.

這是為了讓戰爭的繼續變得完全令人難以接受。

Despite this, in 2024, Russia's economy outpaced the growth of most advanced nations, including the US.

儘管如此，在 2024 年，俄羅斯的經濟增長速度超過了包括美國在內的大多數先進國家。

There was a deep economic contraction in 2022.

It was 2% of GDP and by the way, that's about the same as the impact of COVID on the Russian economy.

這是國內生產總值的 2%，順便說一下，這與 COVID 對俄羅斯經濟的影響差不多。

But what's interesting is that they bounce back very, very quickly.

但有趣的是，它們反彈得非常非常快。

Analysts say Russia was able to avoid the impact of current sanctions by reorienting its economy.

分析人士稱，俄羅斯通過調整經濟方向避免了當前制裁的影響。

The EU was lost as an export market almost entirely.

歐盟幾乎完全喪失了出口市場。

The two big export markets for Russia are China and India.

俄羅斯的兩大出口市場是中國和印度。

Effectively, they have reorientated towards the export of fuels to China and India.

實際上，它們已調整方向，向中國和印度出口燃料。

Because that reorientation was possible, that's one of the reasons the sanctions haven't really beaten as much as we might expect.

因為這種調整是可能的，這也是制裁並沒有像我們預期的那樣真正起作用的原因之一。

In addition, Moscow turned its economic focus on supplying its war effort in Ukraine.

此外，莫斯科還將經濟重點轉向為其在烏克蘭的戰爭提供物資。

With even the most unlikely companies focusing on war, Russian state TV broadcast a segment about a bread factory that swapped dough for drones.

連最不可能的公司都在關注戰爭，俄羅斯國家電視臺播出了一段關於一家麵包廠將麵糰換成無人機的報導。

它們仍然聞起來像新鮮的麵包！

They're spending a tremendous amount of money on armaments.

他們在軍備上花費了鉅額資金。

So there's been the expansion of the military industrial complex.

So we've seen unemployment in Russia actually fall to a 30-year low.

我們看到俄羅斯的失業率實際上已降至 30 年來的最低點。

Russia has largely been able to sustain these high levels of spending thanks to its oil and gas sector, which makes up around 20% of Russia's GDP.

俄羅斯之所以能夠維持如此高的支出水準，在很大程度上要歸功於其石油和天然氣行業，該行業約佔俄羅斯國內生產總值的 20%。

But analysts warn this can't last forever.

但分析師警告說，這種情況不可能永遠持續下去。

By rights, Russia should have a budget surplus at the moment.

按理說，俄羅斯目前應該有預算盈餘。

That surplus should be going into their national wealth fund.

這些盈餘應該進入他們的國家財富基金。

What we've seen is that they're spending far more than they're bringing in.

我們看到的是，他們的支出遠遠超過他們的收入。

And the way they are supplementing that is by running down their remaining reserves.

而他們的補充方式就是消耗剩餘的儲備。

So at the present burn rate, we see them running out at about 2030.

按照目前的燃燒速度，我們認為它們將在 2030 年左右耗盡。

With President Trump threatening to come down hard on Russia, concerns are growing that this could have far-reaching consequences.

隨著川普威脅要嚴厲打擊俄羅斯，人們越來越擔心這會產生深遠的影響。

There's been a suggestion of 100% secondary tariffs.

有人建議徵收 100% 的二次關稅。

So those who buy from Russia, say buy Russian oil, would be hit with tariffs entering the US market.

因此，那些從俄羅斯購買產品的人，例如購買俄羅斯石油的人，在進入美國市場時將會受到關稅的打擊。

China and India are the main buyers of Russian oil.

中國和印度是俄羅斯石油的主要買家。

They collectively account for almost half of Russian exports.

它們加在一起幾乎佔俄羅斯出口的一半。

Let's imagine if they were to stop buying Russian oil completely.

讓我們想象一下，如果他們完全停止購買俄羅斯石油。

That would be catastrophic for the Russian economy.

這對俄羅斯經濟將是災難性的。

Russia looks to oil and gas receipts for anything from a third to half of its annual budget.

俄羅斯每年預算的三分之一到一半都依賴於石油和天然氣收入。

More broadly, this would create a tremendous oil shock in the world.

更廣泛地說，這將給世界帶來巨大的石油衝擊。

Trump's threats also come as cracks in Russia's economy are beginning to show.

川普的威脅也正值俄羅斯經濟開始出現裂痕之際。

Now inflation has been high, but wage inflation has been even higher.

現在的通脹率很高，但工資通脹率更高。

So if anything, the standard of living of Russians has improved.

如果說俄羅斯人的生活水準有所提高的話。

The problem, of course, is that this is not sustainable.

當然，問題在於這種做法是不可持續的。

Eventually, Russia is going to hit the fiscal buffers.

最終，俄羅斯將面臨財政緩衝。

Despite the economic risks, experts believe Russian President Vladimir Putin remains committed to his goal of seizing as much of Ukraine as possible.

儘管存在經濟風險，但專家認為，俄羅斯總統普丁仍致力於實現其儘可能多地佔領烏克蘭的目標。

And that Russia will try to sustain its military economy for years to come as it buys conflicts beyond Ukraine.

而且，俄羅斯將在未來數年內努力維持其軍事經濟，因為它要在烏克蘭之外的衝突中買單。

If you look at Russian defence expenditure, 2025 is likely to be a peak, but that's on the basis that at some point there will be a ceasefire.

如果你看看俄羅斯的國防開支，2025 年很可能是一個高峰，但這是建立在某個時候會停火的基礎上的。

At that point, we'd expect defence spending to moderate.

屆時，我們預計國防開支將有所放緩。

But we don't see spending going back to the 2022 or 2021 level.

但我們認為支出不會回到 2022 年或 2021 年的水準。

Russia would say that it still faces threats.

俄羅斯會說，它仍然面臨威脅。

It would argue that NATO is a threat, so they need to be prepared.

它認為北約是一個威脅，所以他們需要做好準備。

I think they do understand that at some point this war will have to come to an end.

我想他們也明白，這場戰爭總有一天會結束。

But of course, politically, Russia is going to seek to do that on its own terms.

當然，在政治上，俄羅斯將尋求以自己的方式實現這一目標。