Name: 大多數人都不知道房地產市場將發生什麼變化 (Most People Have No Idea What’s About To Happen To Housing Market)
Uploaded: 2025-07-28T18:14:45.000Z
Duration: 25 min 51 s

情態副詞

This is probably your last chance to buy a house because house prices are about to explode and nobody will be able to afford the house.

這可能是你買房的最後機會了，因為房價即將暴漲，沒人買得起房子。

The white house is trying to force the federal reserve to lower down interest rates so that you will be able to afford the house.

白宮正試圖迫使美聯儲降低利率，這樣你們就能買得起房子了。

But what if I told you that is only going to make the situation so bad that the vast of people won't be able to afford the house.

但如果我告訴你，這隻會讓情況變得更糟，以至於絕大多數人都買不起房子呢？

You might think that it should be the other way around.

But what if I told you that it's not the fed that determines your mortgage rate and even if the fed lowers down the interest rates to 0 percent, that is not going to bring down the mortgage rates.

但如果我告訴你，決定抵押貸款利率的不是美聯儲，即使美聯儲將利率降至 0%，也不會降低抵押貸款利率。

If you think that I am exaggerating and house prices are about to explode, then watch the video till the end because I will explain everything step by step and by the end of the video, you will be amazed that house prices are about to explode.

如果你認為我在誇大其詞，房價即將爆炸，那麼請把視頻看完，因為我會一步一步地解釋一切，到視頻結束時，你會驚訝地發現房價即將爆炸。

If you are ready, give this video a thumbs up and let's dive right into it.

如果您準備好了，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們直接進入主題。

A lot of people imagine that if the federal reserve lowers down interest rates, then mortgage rates should go down as well.

很多人認為，如果美聯儲降低利率，那麼抵押貸款利率也應該隨之下降。

That's not just what an average person believes, that's what the president of the United States thinks.

這不僅是普通人的想法，也是美國總統的想法。

And that's why they are trying to push the federal reserve to lower down interest rates because they want to serve the average American.

這就是為什麼他們試圖推動美聯儲降低利率，因為他們想為普通美國人服務。

They want to serve the people, the average people who are working hard so that they will finally be able to afford the house.

他們希望為人民服務，為那些努力工作的普通人服務，讓他們最終能夠買得起房子。

A lot of people imagine that we have a bank, and the bank borrows money from the federal reserve and then loans that money to you in form of credit card debts and also a mortgage.

很多人想象我們有一家銀行，銀行從聯邦儲備局借錢，然後以信用卡債務和抵押貸款的形式把錢借給你。

So if the federal reserve will lower down interest rates to 1 percent in this case, then the bank will be able to loan that money at 2 percent interest rate and that's how we bring down the mortgage rate.

是以，在這種情況下，如果聯邦儲備局將利率下調至 1%，那麼銀行就能以 2% 的利率貸款，這就是我們降低抵押貸款利率的方法。

This sounds great, this is how it's supposed to be, but unfortunately, it doesn't work like that.

這聽起來不錯，應該是這樣的，但不幸的是，事情並非如此。

Because if it works like this, then why don't you go and open a bank.

因為如果是這樣的話，那你為什麼不去開一家銀行呢？

Opening a bank would be the best business in the world because you can simply open a bank, borrow money from the federal reserve and loan it to everybody else at a lower interest rate.

開銀行將是世界上最好的生意，因為你只需開一家銀行，從聯邦儲備局借錢，然後以較低的利率借給其他人。

If it's so easy and so simple, why don't you go and do it.

既然這麼容易，這麼簡單，你為什麼不去做呢？

I promise you that I will be your first client and I will go and borrow trillions of dollars out of your bank if you can provide that money at 2 percent interest rate.

我向你保證，我將是你的第一個客戶，如果你能以 2% 的利率提供資金，我將從你的銀行借到數萬億美元。

I will become a trillionaire, you will become a trillionaire, and we will together invite Elon Musk and tell him, listen, you had to build spaceships, you had to build Tesla cars, but we became trillionaires just by opening a bank.

我會成為萬億富翁，你也會成為萬億富翁，我們會一起邀請埃隆-馬斯克，告訴他，聽著，你必須建造宇宙飛船，你必須建造特斯拉汽車，但我們只需開一家銀行就能成為萬億富翁。

Unfortunately, it doesn't work like that, which is why this system is not going to work.

不幸的是，事情並非如此，這就是為什麼這個系統行不通。

The banks are basically the middlemen and they are in the business of borrowing money from people who have money and loaning that money to people who don't have money at a higher interest rate.

銀行基本上是中間人，他們的業務是從有錢人那裡借錢，然後以更高的利率把錢借給沒錢的人。

This is me, this is you, this is anybody who has money.

這就是我，這就是你，這就是所有有錢人。

It can be a big financial institution or it can simply be an average person.

它可以是一家大型金融機構，也可以只是一個普通人。

This could be you who saved a hundred thousand or barely ten thousand dollars.

這可能是你省下的十萬美元，也可能是勉強省下的一萬美元。

Would you be willing to give that money for free to anybody?

你願意把這筆錢免費送給任何人嗎？

Of course not, but you are more than willing to invest that money so that it works on behalf of you and makes you more money.

當然不是，但你更願意投資這筆錢，讓它為你工作，讓你賺更多的錢。

On the other side, we have people who want to borrow money.

另一方面，我們有想要借錢的人。

So these are the people who don't have money but they want to buy a house so they would get a 30-year loan, which we call a mortgage, and buy that house.

是以，這些人沒有錢，但他們想買房子，所以他們會申請 30 年期貸款，也就是我們所說的抵押貸款，然後買房子。

It also could be a person who wants to buy a car and he doesn't have the money so he wants to go and borrow an auto loan and buy that fancy BMW.

也可能是一個人想買車，但他沒有錢，於是他想去借汽車貸款，買一輛高級寶馬。

So all the bank does is that it takes the money from the people who have money and gives the money to people who don't have the money and then they will pocket the difference.

是以，銀行要做的就是從有錢人那裡拿錢，然後把錢給沒錢的人，再把差額收入囊中。

Now, for this transaction to work, this deal must be profitable.

現在，這筆交易要想成功，就必須有利可圖。

So the bank would go to the investors and ask them, are you willing to loan your money?

是以，銀行會去問投資者，你們願意貸款嗎？

The investors will say, oh, kind of a business is that?

投資者會說，哦，這算什麼生意？

Well, so he will think about the risks and the return that the business will do.

那麼，他就會考慮企業的風險和回報。

If it's a business type of a business and the investors doesn't know if this business will be successful or not, he will ask a much higher interest rate.

如果是商業類型的企業，投資者不知道這個企業是否會成功，那麼他要求的利率就會高得多。

But if it's a debt, which means that the money will be returned bank guaranteed, then he will ask for a lower interest rate.

但如果是債務，也就是由銀行擔保還錢，那麼他就會要求降低利率。

The second thing he will ask is, of course, rate of return that we just talked about.

他要問的第二件事當然是我們剛才談到的回報率。

But the most important thing when it comes to debt that investors care about is inflation rate.

但說到債務，投資者最關心的還是通貨膨脹率。

Inflation is how much the value of the dollar devalues annually.

通貨膨脹是指美元每年貶值的幅度。

So if the dollar devalues by 2% annually and I make 2% as an investor, then I made no money or whatsoever because I made 2% and I lost 2% because this money was devalued.

是以，如果美元每年貶值 2%，而我作為投資者賺了 2%，那麼我就沒賺到錢或什麼都沒賺到，因為我賺了 2%，而我損失了 2%，因為這筆錢貶值了。

So if I want to make a real return, my real returns are anything that I make above the rate of inflation.

是以，如果我想獲得實際回報，我的實際回報就是我所賺取的高於通脹率的收益。

是以，這一切又回到了通貨膨脹的問題上。

If inflation is 2%, then investors are willing to accept 3% or 4%.

如果通脹率為 2%，那麼投資者願意接受 3%或 4%。

If inflation is 10%, then nobody will accept 2% because investors are losing money on that deal.

如果通脹率為 10%，那麼沒有人會接受 2%，因為投資者在這筆交易中會虧損。

But banks have to make a profit on the investments that they make.

And banks do not have a lot of cash in their hands.

Because this is a bank and the bank borrowed money from investors and quickly gave it away to people who want that money, which means that the bank doesn't have a lot of cash.

因為這是一家銀行，銀行從投資者那裡借錢後，很快就把錢分給了想要這筆錢的人，這意味著銀行並沒有很多現金。

That is why we created something called fractional reserve banking.

這就是為什麼我們創造了一種叫做部分準備金銀行業務的東西。

It allows the bank to show that you have your money in the bank and it also gave that money away to someone else in the form of a mortgage.

它可以讓銀行證明你的錢存在銀行裡，同時也以抵押貸款的形式把錢給了別人。

There is a lot of conspiracies about fractional reserve banking and that it shouldn't exist in the first place.

關於部分準備金銀行業務有很多陰謀論，認為它本來就不應該存在。

But what do you think the bank is supposed to do?

The bank is in the business of borrowing the money and loaning that money to someone else.

銀行的業務就是借錢，然後把錢借給別人。

If the bank will simply take your money and keep it in the bank, then the real question is that, why would the bank do that?

如果銀行只是把你的錢存入銀行，那麼真正的問題是，銀行為什麼要這樣做？

Do you think people have nothing else to do that they will simply build an entire financial system only to keep your money safe?

你以為人們閒來無事，就會為了保證你的資金安全而建立整個金融體系嗎？

I mean, if you want to do charity, if you want to do that kind of a business for free to everybody, go ahead and do that.

我的意思是，如果你想做慈善，如果你想免費為所有人做這種生意，那就去做吧。

We live in a free market, capitalistic society.

我們生活在一個自由市場、資本主義社會。

So the bank will take the money and give it to other people, which means that the bank doesn't have a lot of cash.

是以，銀行會把錢拿去給其他人，這意味著銀行沒有很多現金。

Well, you might say, well, the bank should keep some cash.

你可能會說，銀行應該留些現金。

Let's imagine that the bank will take that money and will keep that cash in the bank account.

讓我們設想一下，銀行會收下這筆錢，並將現金存入銀行賬戶。

So the value of the cash that the bank keeps becomes less and less valuable.

是以，銀行保存的現金價值越來越低。

So the bank is losing money by keeping that cash in the bank, which is why for these two reasons, banks never keep money in their bank accounts.

是以，銀行把現金存在銀行裡是在賠錢，這就是為什麼出於這兩個原因，銀行從不把錢存在銀行賬戶裡。

I mean, they keep a portion of the cash, of course, but most of the money is being loaned to people so that this money is working on behalf of investors and making the investors rich and the bank rich.

我的意思是，他們當然會保留一部分現金，但大部分錢都貸給了別人，這樣這些錢就代表了投資者的利益，讓投資者發財，銀行也發財。

But how do we solve this problem if somebody, if suddenly some people will come to the bank and will ask for money back?

但是，如果突然有人來銀行要求退錢，我們該如何解決這個問題呢？

So imagine we have loaned, we have like a hundred investors and we have a hundred people to whom we give the money.

想象一下，我們貸款給了 100 個投資者，我們又把錢給了 100 個人。

Now, tomorrow, 20 people will come to the doors of Bank of America and will say, we want our money back.

現在，明天會有20個人來到美國銀行門口 說，我們要拿回我們的錢。

The Bank of America will say, well, your money is not there in the bank.

美國銀行會說，你的錢不在銀行裡。

So the Bank of America will start calling the people to whom lend the money.

所以，美國銀行會開始給借錢的人打電話。

For example, you who took a mortgage and will tell you, listen, Michael, we actually gave you a 30-year mortgage, but unfortunately, this investor wants his money back.

例如，你接受了抵押貸款，我們會告訴你，聽著，邁克爾，我們實際上給了你一個 30 年的抵押貸款，但不幸的是，這個投資者想要回他的錢。

Can you please give us back the $500,000 we gave you?

你能把我們給你的 50 萬美元還給我們嗎？

You will reply and say, listen, I don't have the $500,000 and we agree that it's a 30-year mortgage.

你會回答說，聽著，我沒有 50 萬美元，而且我們同意是 30 年抵押貸款。

So please respect your terms of the agreement and let's just do it the way it was agreed in the first place.

所以，請尊重你們的協議條款，讓我們按照當初的約定來做吧。

But on the other side, this investor wants his money back.

但另一方面，這位投資者想要回他的錢。

So how do we solve this complicated situation?

那麼，我們該如何解決這一複雜局面呢？

The banks, in order to function, they have to have a lot of treasurer bills.

銀行為了運作，必須有大量的司庫鈔票。

This is the debt that the government of the United States has created.

而這些財務賬單是要付利息的。

So on one side, we keep this treasurer bills and we're not losing money to inflation because we are getting interest on these treasurer bills.

是以，一方面，我們保留了這些財務賬單，我們並沒有因為通貨膨脹而虧損，因為我們從這些財務賬單上獲得了利息。

If inflation is 2%, the treasurer bills provide us with 3 to 4% interest rate, which means that yes, we're keeping this treasurer bills and we're making money on this treasurer bills.

如果通貨膨脹率為 2%，那麼財務主管賬單將為我們提供 3% 至 4% 的利率，這意味著是的，我們將保留這些財務主管賬單，並通過這些財務主管賬單賺錢。

So even though that inflation is eating away money, we are making more than inflation on this treasurer bills.

是以，儘管通貨膨脹正在吞噬資金，但我們在財務主管賬單上的收益卻超過了通貨膨脹。

是以，我們並沒有因為通貨膨脹而虧損。

On the other side, because we have this treasurer bills, we have the Fed as well.

另一方面，因為我們有這個財務主管法案，我們也有美聯儲。

Now, the job of the Fed here is that if we have such a situation where a lot of people get into the bank to ask for their money back, the bank can use the treasurer bills as a collateral to borrow money from the Federal Reserve in the short run and give it to the investors.

現在，美聯儲在這裡的工作是，如果我們遇到這種情況，很多人進入銀行要求拿回他們的錢，銀行可以用國庫券作為抵押，在短期內從美聯儲借錢，然後把錢給投資者。

The bank will call the Fed and will say, listen, Fed, I have this 20 investors who want their money back and I don't have cash, but I have these treasurer bills, which are super safe investments.

銀行會打電話給美聯儲說，聽著，美聯儲，我有20個投資者想要回他們的錢，我沒有現金，但我有這些國庫券，這是超級安全的投資。

字幕列表影片播放

大多數人都不知道房地產市場將發生什麼變化 (Most People Have No Idea What’s About To Happen To Housing Market)

entire

discipline

period

crisis