Name: 我分析了喬治-索羅斯是如何賺取數十億美元的，結果比你想象的還要糟糕 (I Analyzed How George Soros Made his Billions, It’s Worse Than You Expect)
Uploaded: 2025-07-20T19:25:34.000Z
Duration: 15 min 4 s

基礎被動語態

George Soros is known for breaking the bank of England and making billions of dollars.

喬治-索羅斯因搗毀英格蘭銀行並賺取數十億美元而聞名。

But not many people know that he also broke the bank of Japan and made billions of dollars while keeping the Japanese economy poor.

但沒有多少人知道，他還砸了日本的銀行，賺了數十億美元，卻讓日本經濟一蹶不振。

George Soros is one of the brightest minds in the financial world.

喬治-索羅斯是金融界最聰明的人之一。

And he found a real-life money glitch that allowed him to make billions of dollars while keeping Japan very poor.

他發現了一個現實生活中的金錢漏洞，使他能夠賺取數十億美元，卻讓日本非常貧窮。

It's like literally in GTA where you write down a cheat code and billions of dollars will flood your bank account.

就像《GTA》裡寫的那樣，只要寫下作弊代碼，數十億美元就會湧入你的銀行賬戶。

So here in this video, let's figure out how exactly did George Soros made billions of dollars out of thin air while the economy of Japan suffered as a result of that.

是以，在這段視頻中，讓我們來弄清楚喬治-索羅斯究竟是如何憑空賺取數十億美元，而日本經濟卻是以遭受損失的。

If you are ready, give this video a thumbs up and let's dive right into it.

如果您準備好了，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們直接進入主題。

The Japanese economy was one of the fastest-growing economies of the 20th century.

日本經濟是 20 世紀增長最快的經濟體之一。

The country that suffered the most as a result of World War II quickly recovered and started booming.

這個在二戰中遭受損失最大的國家很快就恢復了元氣，並開始蓬勃發展。

It literally went from the poorest country in the world to the country that challenged the United States as the world's largest economy.

它確實從世界上最貧窮的國家變成了挑戰美國世界最大經濟體地位的國家。

At some point, the US was afraid that if Japan will overtake the United States, the US dollar might lose its status as the global reserve currency.

美國曾一度擔心，如果日本超過美國，美元可能會失去全球儲備貨幣的地位。

At its peak, the imperial palace in Japan used to worth a lot more than the entire state of California.

日本皇宮在鼎盛時期的價值曾遠遠超過整個加利福尼亞州。

I want you to think about that for a moment.

The wealthiest state in the United States does not worth as much as a small piece of land in central of Japan.

美國最富裕的州還不如日本中部的一小塊土地值錢。

但所有人都知道，這是一個保麗龍。

Prices were inflated to the point, and all of that was made because people borrowed a lot of money and bought assets thinking that the prices of these assets will continue growing forever.

價格膨脹到了極點，而這一切都是因為人們借了很多錢，買了很多資產，以為這些資產的價格會永遠增長下去。

However, in 1990s, the entire economy collapsed, and since then, the stagnation of the Japanese economy began.

然而，20 世紀 90 年代，整個經濟崩潰，自此日本經濟開始停滯不前。

In fact, the economy until today hasn't even recovered.

事實上，直到今天，經濟都還沒有復甦。

When prices grow so fast, what do central banks do?

當價格增長如此之快時，央行該怎麼辦？

They instantly get into the economy and start hiking interest rates to stop the supply of  Because if people have less money to borrow, they will stop borrowing money, which means that they will stop buying a lot of these assets, which means that the demand for the assets will fall down, which means that prices will not rise that much, and the bubble will stop.

因為如果人們可借貸的錢減少了，他們就會停止借貸，這意味著他們將停止購買大量這些資產，這意味著對這些資產的需求將下降，這意味著價格不會上漲那麼多，保麗龍就會停止。

By the time the bank of Japan has increased the interest rates, it was too late already.

當日本銀行提高利率時，為時已晚。

The bubble has ballooned to the point where nobody could stop it, and in 1990s, it completely collapsed.

保麗龍膨脹到無人能阻止的地步，到了 20 世紀 90 年代，保麗龍徹底崩潰。

The entire economy went into a deflationary environment.

Prices started falling down dramatically fast.

And when prices fall, people stop spending money, because people imagine that prices will continue falling down.

當價格下跌時，人們就會停止消費，因為人們想象價格會繼續下跌。

Why would I buy a house today if I know that the price of the house will worth a lot less next year?

如果我知道明年房子的價格會便宜很多，為什麼還要在今天買房子呢？

Why would I buy it next year when I see that the prices last year has fallen and they will continue falling down?

我看到去年的價格已經下跌，而且還會繼續下跌，為什麼明年還要買呢？

If you want to buy this house, and you know that the price of this house is falling down, will you buy it today or you will wait until the price will reach the bottom line?

如果你想買這套房子，而你知道這套房子的價格正在下跌，你是今天就買呢，還是等到價格達到底線時再買？

If you wait until next year and the prices are still falling down, you are probably going to continue waiting until the price falls to the rock bottom and then you are going to buy it, because that's when you get the best deal.

如果你等到明年，價格還在下跌，你可能會繼續等待，直到價格跌到谷底，然後再買，因為那時你會得到最好的交易。

While at first glance falling prices seems like a great idea, in reality, it shrinks the economy and prevents the economy from falling down.

乍一看，物價下跌似乎是個好主意，但實際上，它卻會使經濟萎縮，防止經濟下滑。

So the central bank intervenes and lowers down interest rates to make borrowing money much cheaper, so that people borrow money, start buying assets, start spending, and prices start growing again and the economy recovers.

於是，中央銀行進行干預，降低利率，使借貸成本大大降低，這樣人們就借到了錢，開始購買資產，開始消費，物價又開始增長，經濟復甦。

That's why the central bank of Japan has lowered down interest rates to 0.5% by 1995.

是以，日本中央銀行在 1995 年之前將利率下調至 0.5%。

And that's when George Soros realized one of the best opportunities in history.

這時，喬治-索羅斯意識到了歷史上最好的機會之一。

George Soros quickly realized that the interest rates on the other side of the ocean are much higher than the interest rates in Japan. 0.5 interest rates or super low interest rates were one of the few unique things in the world and nobody saw anything like that.

喬治-索羅斯很快意識到，大洋彼岸的利率遠高於日本的利率。0.5 的利率或超低利率是世界上為數不多的獨一無二的東西，沒有人見過這樣的東西。

So you could basically borrow money from one country where the interest rates are low and you could be investing in another country where interest rates are high and you will make a difference.

是以，你基本上可以從一個利率較低的國家借錢，而在另一個利率較高的國家投資，這樣你就會有所收穫。

One of the main reasons why businesses borrow money is when they have a proven business model.

企業借錢的主要原因之一是它們擁有成熟的商業模式。

So if apple has a proven business model and they know that by borrowing money and investing in this project, they can make a 10% rate of return by producing iPhones for example.

是以，如果蘋果公司有一個成熟的商業模式，而且他們知道通過借錢投資這個項目，他們可以通過生產 iPhone 等產品獲得 10% 的回報率。

They will borrow a billion dollars, let's say, at a 3% interest rate.

比方說，他們將以 3% 的利率借貸 10 億美元。

They don't care about the 3% interest rate because they are making 10% out of their business.

他們不在乎 3% 的利率，因為他們能從生意中賺 10% 的錢。

But in this case, you don't have to invent anything.

但在這種情況下，你不需要發明任何東西。

It's simply one country is loaning money at a lower interest rate and the other country is ready to borrow that money at a higher interest rate.

簡單地說，就是一個國家以較低的利率借錢，而另一個國家準備以較高的利率借錢。

Which means that you can simply pocket the difference.

這意味著，您只需將差價收入囊中即可。

Borrow money at 0.5% in Japan, lend it to the US government at 5% interest rate or lend it to the British government at 5% interest rate.

在日本以 0.5%的利率借錢，以 5%的利率借給美國政府，或以 5%的利率借給英國政府。

You take the money back, you pay Japan the lower interest rate and you pocket the difference.

你把錢拿回來，向日本支付較低的利率，然後把差額收入囊中。

Let's say that George Soros borrows 100 million yen at 0.5% interest rate.

假設喬治-索羅斯以 0.5%的利率借入 1 億日元。

He takes that money and instantly converts it to the US dollar.

他拿著這筆錢立即兌換成美元。

If you want to loan money to the US government, you will have to loan it in the US dollars.

如果你想貸款給美國政府，就必須用美元貸款。

Let's consider in this case that the conversion rate is 1 dollar equals to 111 yen.

在這種情況下，我們假設 1 美元兌換 111 日元。

And that will be roughly around 900 thousand dollars.

I am rounding out the numbers to make it easier to understand.

為了便於理解，我對數字進行了四捨五入。

And then you will take the 900 thousand dollars and you look at the treasurer bills of the United States and the United Kingdom.

然後，你再拿著這 90 萬美元，看看美國和英國的國庫券。

Interest rates in the US are around 5.5 to 6%.

Interest rates in the United Kingdom are roughly around 5.5%.

Governments usually offer an interest rate that is equal to the interest rate of the Federal Reserve or above that in order to compete with commercial banks.

政府為了與商業銀行競爭，通常會提供與美聯儲利率相等或高於美聯儲利率的利率。

If you can get a much higher interest rate by loaning your money to JP Morgan, for example, at 5%, why would you loan your money at 1% interest rate to the US government?

如果你把錢借給摩根大通（JP Morgan），例如 5%，可以獲得更高的利率，那你為什麼要把錢以 1%的利率借給美國政府呢？

And that's why the government often borrows money at the exact same rate that the Federal Reserve sets.

這就是為什麼政府經常按照美聯儲設定的利率借錢。

Which means that you could be borrowing money at 0.5% in Japan and loaning it and buying treasurer bills in the United States and the United Kingdom at 5.5%. 5% or 900 thousand dollars is 45 thousand dollars.

也就是說，你可以在日本以 0.5%的利率借錢，然後在美國和英國以 5.5%的利率貸款和購買國庫券。5％ 或 90 萬美元就是 4.5 萬美元。

You are going to pay back Japan 0.5% or 4500 dollars and you will end up with a profit of a little 40 thousand dollars.

你要償還日本 0.5% 或 4500 美元，最後你將獲利 4 萬美元。

While this doesn't seem like a lot of money, this is just a small example of what you could do with 900 thousand dollars.

雖然這筆錢看起來並不多，但這只是 90 萬美元能做什麼的一個小例子。

Take the exact same strategy, apply it to billions of dollars and suddenly you will find yourself making hundreds of millions of dollars.

採取完全相同的策略，將其應用於數十億美元，你會突然發現自己賺了數億美元。

The problem with this strategy, while it seems very simple, it presents a very huge risk.

這一策略的問題在於，它看似簡單，卻存在著巨大的風險。

If you make one mistake, you could be losing billions of dollars.

如果你犯了一個錯誤，你可能會損失數十億美元。

And that's because exchange rates change so fast that if you are not very careful, you could be losing your entire fortune.

這是因為匯率變化太快，稍有不慎，就可能傾家蕩產。

Suppose you borrow 100 million yen, and the exchange rate is 1 dollar equals to 111 yen when 100 million yen would equal 900 thousand dollars.

假設你借了 1 億日元，匯率是 1 美元等於 111 日元，而 1 億日元等於 90 萬美元。

If the yen is going to appreciate, that means that yen is going to become stronger compared to the dollar, that means that the demand for yen is going to increase while the demand for the dollar is going to decrease.

如果日元升值，這意味著日元相對於美元將變得更加堅挺，這意味著對日元的需求將增加，而對美元的需求將減少。

If the yen will appreciate where 1 dollar will equal to 50 yen, now it means that the 100 million yen that you have borrowed will equal to 2 million dollars.

如果日元升值，1 美元等於 50 日元，這意味著你借的 1 億日元將等於 200 萬美元。

Because you are paying back the bank of Japan not in US dollars but you are paying the bank of Japan in the local currency.

因為你償還日本銀行的不是美元，而是當地貨幣。

Every central bank has the right to print money, but they only have the right to print their own local currency.

每個中央銀行都有印鈔權，但它們只有印製本國貨幣的權利。

The federal reserve in the United States has the right to print the US dollars.

美國聯邦儲備局有權印製美元。

The bank of Japan in Japan has the right to print the Japanese yen, and they will only accept the Japanese yen.

日本的日本銀行有權印製日元，而且他們只接受日元。

So if you are paying back the bank of Japan, then you have to pay them back in the Japanese yen.

是以，如果你要償還日本銀行，那麼你就必須用日元償還。

So if you miscalculate and the Japanese yen suddenly appreciates, you will find yourself losing billions of dollars.

是以，如果你計算錯誤，日元突然升值，你會發現自己損失了數十億美元。

但這正是他的策略奏效的原因。

When you lower down interest rates to 0.5%, that means that borrowing money is cheap now.

當你把利率降到 0.5%，這意味著現在借錢很便宜。

Now everybody rushing to the banks and borrowing a lot of yen.

現在，每個人都衝向銀行，借入大量日元。

That increases the supply of yen in the market.

這就增加了市場上的日元供應量。

When the supply rises while the demand is the same, that creates or devalues the currency.

當供應增加而需求不變時，貨幣就會產生或貶值。

The Japanese yen began to depreciate against the dollar and other currencies which allowed this strategy to happen.

日元開始對美元和其他貨幣貶值，使這一戰略得以實施。

And the only reason this strategy worked is because George Soros was convinced that Japan is not going to get out of the deflationary environment any time soon.

而這一策略奏效的唯一原因是，喬治-索羅斯堅信日本不會很快擺脫通貨緊縮的環境。

But George Soros was not ready to take the risk.

但喬治-索羅斯不願意冒這個險。

And he purposely did everything possible to continue the yen to depreciate and the only way he could do that is by pressuring the yen.

他故意想盡一切辦法讓日元繼續貶值，而唯一的辦法就是對日元施壓。

And the best way to pressure any security is to short it massively.

而對任何證券施壓的最佳方式就是大規模做空。

Shorting any currency means simply borrowing that currency.

做空任何貨幣都意味著借入該貨幣。

If I want to short the Tesla stock, then I am borrowing the Tesla stock from the broker but I have to give it back some time in the future.

如果我想做空特斯拉股票，那麼我就是從經紀人那裡借來了特斯拉股票，但我必須在未來某個時候還回去。

I might give it back tomorrow or next year or a few months from now.

我可能會在明天、明年或幾個月後把它還回去。

但我只能把這種安全感還給你。

I cannot pay back with a different security, I have to return back the exact same Tesla stock.

我不能用不同的證券還款，我必須退還完全相同的特斯拉股票。

Which means that if the price of Tesla stock is going to rise tomorrow, I have to buy back that stock at a much higher price which means that I will make a loss.

這意味著，如果明天特斯拉股票的價格上漲，我就必須以更高的價格買回股票，這意味著我將蒙受損失。

So in this case, when you are borrowing a lot of yens, you are again flooding the market with a lot of yens which means that the supply of yen in the market is rising which is devaluing the yen.

是以，在這種情況下，當你借入大量日元時，你又會讓大量日元充斥市場，這意味著市場上的日元供應量在增加，從而使日元貶值。

But at the same time, I am taking my yen and I am instantly selling it in the open market.

但與此同時，我也拿著我的日元在公開市場上立即拋售。

Let's imagine for a moment that the exchange rate is 1 dollar equals to 100 yen.

讓我們設想一下，現在的匯率是 1 美元等於 100 日元。

I took my 100 yens and I sold it in the open market for 1 dollar.

我把 100 日元拿到公開市場賣了 1 美元。

I no longer have the yens but I have my single dollar.

我不再有日元，但我還有我的一美元。

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我分析了喬治-索羅斯是如何賺取數十億美元的，結果比你想象的還要糟糕 (I Analyzed How George Soros Made his Billions, It’s Worse Than You Expect)

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