Name: 為什麼人工智能保麗龍尚未崩潰--銀行不想讓你知道的事 (Why The AI Bubble Hasn't Crashed Yet - What Banks Don't Want You To Know)
Uploaded: 2025-06-17T18:31:04.000Z
Duration: 21 min 1 s

If there is one stock that everybody wished that they have purchased back in 2022, it would be Nvidia.

如果說大家都希望在 2022 年買入一隻股票，那一定是英偉達。

程度副詞

The company has grown so much that it replaced Apple as the most valuable company in the world.

公司發展迅速，已取代蘋果公司成為全球最有價值的公司。

Back in 2020, nobody have thought that there is a company that will be capable to take over Apple in just a couple of years.

早在 2020 年，沒有人想到有一家公司能在短短几年內取代蘋果。

And the greatest part is that it has grown by over a thousand percent.

最重要的是，它已經增長了一千多個百分點。

Which means that for every thousand dollars that you would have invested in Nvidia back in 2022, it would have earned you today an extra 10 thousand dollars.

這意味著，如果你在 2022 年向 Nvidia 投資每千美元，今天就能多賺 1 萬美元。

Imagine if you spent all of your savings into Nvidia.

想象一下，如果你把所有積蓄都花在了 Nvidia 上。

But it's not just Nvidia, it's literally every AI company that is taking over the world.

但不僅僅是 Nvidia，簡直所有的人工智能公司都在佔領世界。

Palantir early investors are freaking happy because they are making so much money that everyone else is looking at them and they are like, I wish I had invested in Palantir.

Palantir 的早期投資者非常高興，因為他們賺了很多錢，其他人看著他們都會說：我要是投資 Palantir 就好了。

But if you actually look at it, it seems like AI is turning into one giant bubble.

但如果你仔細觀察，就會發現人工智能似乎正在變成一個巨大的保麗龍。

Just like the dot com bubble was formed back in 1990s.

就像 20 世紀 90 年代形成的網絡保麗龍一樣。

And the nature of all bubbles is that they burst and they turn into a massive crash.

而所有保麗龍的本質都是破滅，並演變成大規模崩盤。

And that allows a lot of people to buy those stocks at a fraction of the price.

這樣一來，很多人就能以低廉的價格買到這些股票。

So some people are looking at the AI and they are like, it's not a big deal that we have missed the train because it's going to collapse and we will have another opportunity.

是以，有些人在看待人工智能時就會想，我們錯過了這趟列車也沒什麼大不了的，因為它會垮掉，我們還會有機會的。

But after giving it a very close look, it seems like the AI bubble is not going to burst.

但經過仔細研究，人工智能保麗龍似乎不會破滅。

And the AI bubble is very different from the dot com bubble.

人工智能保麗龍與互聯網保麗龍截然不同。

So here in this video, I want to answer a couple of questions.

是以，在這段視頻中，我想回答幾個問題。

Why AI bubble is not going to burst, so it's not going to give you an opportunity to buy those stocks at pennies on the dollar.

為什麼人工智能保麗龍不會破滅，所以它不會給你一個以幾分錢買入這些股票的機會。

Secondly, how different the AI bubble is from the dot com bubble.

其次，人工智能保麗龍與互聯網保麗龍有何不同。

And finally, how can you profit from it regardless.

最後，無論如何，你都能從中獲利。

If you are ready, give this video a thumbs up and let's get right into it.

如果您準備好了，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們開始吧。

Internet was created back in 1969, but it truly took off in 1990s when Netscape created the first browser that made it easy to interact with the internet.

互聯網早在 1969 年就誕生了，但它真正的騰飛是在 20 世紀 90 年代，當時網景公司創造了第一個瀏覽器，使人們可以輕鬆地與互聯網互動。

Internet was this mysterious technology that an average person had no idea about.

互聯網是一種普通人完全不瞭解的神祕技術。

You could talk about what the internet could help you with, but if you cannot use it, if an average person cannot easily use that technology, then it's pointless for the vast majority of the populace.

你可以談論互聯網能幫你做什麼，但如果你不能使用它，如果一個普通人不能輕鬆使用這項技術，那麼它對絕大多數人來說就毫無意義。

But then in 1995, Netscape comes out and they create the first browser that changed the entire world.

但在 1995 年，網景公司橫空出世，他們創造的第一個瀏覽器改變了整個世界。

And when they went on their IPO back in 1995, their stock on the first day of trading went from $28 per stock to as much as $58.

而在 1995 年首次公開募股時，他們的股票在交易的第一天就從每股 28 美元漲到了 58 美元。

If Netscape could go from $28 to as much as $60 in a single day, imagine what every other technology company can do.

如果網景公司能在一天之內從 28 美元漲到 60 美元，那麼可以想象其他所有技術公司能做到什麼。

The largest companies back in the 1990s started integrating internet into their entire business model.

早在 20 世紀 90 年代，最大的公司就開始將互聯網融入其整個業務模式。

And in just two years, from 1995 to 1997, the venture capital investment into the internet went from $1.3 billion to as much as $10 billion.

從 1995 年到 1997 年，短短兩年時間，風險投資對互聯網的投資就從 13 億美元增加到 100 億美元之多。

And a company such as Amazon, their stock went from $1.5 in 1997 to as much as $113.

而像亞馬遜這樣的公司，其股價從 1997 年的 1.5 美元漲到了 113 美元。

It was basically the Palantir of its days.

The Amazon stock was going through the roof.

And it wasn't just Amazon, you had all of these companies coming out and adding .com at their name and then they saw their stock prices surge.

不僅僅是亞馬遜，所有這些公司都在自己的名稱中添加了 .com，然後它們的股價就一路飆升。

Because the vast majority of people who are speculating and investing in the stock market, they have no idea how stocks work, they have no idea how to pick great stocks.

因為絕大多數在股市投機和投資的人，根本不知道股票是如何運作的，也不知道如何挑選優秀的股票。

So when they saw .com at the end of their names, they realized that or they thought maybe this is the stock that is going to be the next Amazon, the next Netscape and I want to profit out of it.

是以，當他們看到名字末尾的 .com 時，他們就會意識到這一點，或者他們會想，也許這就是下一個亞馬遜、下一個網景的股票，我想從中獲利。

So they started speculating and buying those stocks.

於是，他們開始投機，購買這些股票。

Stock market literally shoot to the roof.

And in just a couple of years, it went from less than 500 points to 1500.

在短短几年內，它從不到 500 點漲到了 1500 點。

That's a triple increase in such a short period of time.

在如此短的時間內，增長了三倍。

Yahoo back in the days was literally the Google of the time.

雅虎當年簡直就是當時的谷歌。

Its stock price went from less than $5 to as much as $118 in just a couple of days.

其股價在短短几天內從不到 5 美元漲至 118 美元。

I remember back in the days, my first email that I have ever created was in Yahoo.

我還記得，我創建的第一封郵件是在雅虎網站上發送的。

I mean, I don't literally remember the password and I haven't logged into that account for more than 15 years, so I have no idea if it's active or not.

我的意思是，我根本不記得密碼，而且我已經超過 15 年沒有登錄過這個賬戶了，所以我不知道它是否還在使用。

But back in the days, when you look at Yahoo and you look at Google, you know that Yahoo is the boss.

但在過去，當你看雅虎和谷歌的時候，你就會知道雅虎才是老大。

And it's very interesting how the market works, that one company fell off the grace while the other company dominated the market.

市場的運作方式非常有趣，一家公司一蹶不振，另一家公司卻在市場上佔據主導地位。

And right now, we are yet in that period of history when we are having another major shift.

而現在，我們正處於又一次重大轉變的歷史時期。

I find myself using, for example, ChatGPT much more often than Google, and I couldn't have imagined that to happen just a couple of years ago.

例如，我發現自己使用 ChatGPT 的頻率遠高於谷歌，而就在幾年前，我還無法想象會發生這種情況。

And that speculation drove so much money into the market that it turned it into a bubble.

這種投機行為使大量資金湧入市場，最終導致市場泡沫化。

And a couple of years later, as the nature of any bubbles, the bubbles burst and the entire stock market just collapsed.

幾年後，正如任何保麗龍的本質一樣，保麗龍破滅，整個股市崩盤。

Of course, the internet did not end there and it recovered after that.

當然，互聯網並沒有就此結束，它在那之後又恢復了。

By 2007, the stock market fully recovered and some of those companies are some of the largest companies today.

到 2007 年，股市全面復甦，其中一些公司已成為當今最大的公司。

If you look at the top 10 largest companies, Amazon was created during the dot-com bubble, Google was founded during the dot-com revolution.

如果你看一下排名前十的大公司，亞馬遜是在網絡保麗龍時期創建的，谷歌是在網絡革命時期成立的。

Other companies emerged a couple of years later, but the dot-com revolution or the internet revolution did not disappear, it was simply a massive stock market crash that allowed investors to buy those stocks at a fraction of the price.

幾年後又出現了其他公司，但網絡公司革命或互聯網革命並沒有消失，只不過是股市大跌，讓投資者以極低的價格買到了這些股票。

But I want you to take a look at this right now and compare it to what's happening today.

但我想讓你們看看現在的情況，並與今天發生的事情進行比較。

Since chat gpt came out in 2022, the stock market has been growing like by almost 70%.

自 2022 年推出哈拉 gpt 以來，股市增長了近 70%。

But AI is nothing new, AI has been around since like 1950s.

但人工智能並不是什麼新鮮事物，早在上世紀 50 年代，人工智能就已經出現了。

But we truly started using AI in 2010 or in 2011 when Steve Jobs came out with Siri.

但我們真正開始使用人工智能是在 2010 年或 2011 年，當時喬布斯推出了 Siri。

Remember iPhone 4s, you could literally just ask Siri questions and it will automatically give you answers from the internet.

還記得 iPhone 4s 時，你只需向 Siri 提問，它就會自動從互聯網上給出答案。

Of course, Siri is falling behind everyone else today and Apple literally lost the opportunity to capitalize on AI.

當然，如今 Siri 已經落後於其他人，蘋果公司也是以失去了利用人工智能的機會。

Maybe they have some time to take advantage out of it, but if you look at the market today, then AI or Apple is far behind everyone else on AI.

也許他們還有一些時間來利用它，但如果你看看現在的市場，那麼人工智能或蘋果在人工智能方面遠遠落後於其他人。

But back in 2011, Siri was literally the AI model that everybody wanted to replicate.

但早在 2011 年，Siri 簡直就是人人都想複製的人工智能模型。

Another company started coming out with their voice assistants.

另一家公司開始推出語音助手。

However, what truly made AI so famous was chat gpt in 2022, that's when every company in the world started integrating AI into their models.

然而，真正讓人工智能聲名鵲起的是 2022 年的哈拉 gpt，也就是從那時起，全球所有公司都開始將人工智能整合到他們的模型中。

As if chat gpt is the exact same thing as Netscape that has happened to the internet back in 1995.

就好像聊天工具 Gpt 和 1995 年互聯網上出現的 Netscape 是一回事一樣。

Internet was this complicated world, but now with an easy to use interface that Netscape created, everybody could use internet and profit and benefit out of it.

互聯網曾是一個複雜的世界，但現在有了網景公司創造的簡單易用的界面，每個人都可以使用互聯網，並從中獲利和受益。

The same thing with chat gpt, before it came out, people have heard about AI, they understood in theory how AI can help them improve their jobs and make them more productive, but nobody could truly use AI and integrate it within their lives.

哈拉金沙國際娛樂網址也是如此，在它問世之前，人們聽說過人工智能，理論上了解人工智能如何幫助他們改善工作，提高工作效率，但沒有人能真正使用人工智能，並將其融入生活。

But since 2022, AI is everywhere, look at every company in the world, they are trying to use AI and integrate it within their entire system that will allow them to become more  I mean, I remember like last year, I logged into my notion IC, notion AI, I log into my Google Drive, and there is Google AI Drive or whatever they call it.

但自 2022 年以來，人工智能無處不在，看看世界上的每家公司，他們都在嘗試使用人工智能，並將其整合到整個系統中，這將使他們變得更加 我的意思是，我記得去年，我登錄了我的 notion IC、notion AI，我登錄了我的 Google Drive，那裡有 Google AI Drive 或他們稱之為的任何東西。

And everything that I use today has AI integrated within itself.

如今，我所使用的一切產品都集成了人工智能。

Even the last Apple event that happened in the last September was all about AI, even though that later on that people purchased those iPhones, they realized that most of these AI features that Apple bragged about in their conference didn't actually exist in iPhones yet, and they are about to come sometime in the future, I guess they are not even yet there, but nonetheless, Apple is also focused on making AI the core part of their business.

儘管後來人們購買了這些 iPhone，但他們意識到，蘋果在發佈會上吹噓的這些人工智能功能，實際上大部分還沒有出現在 iPhone 上，它們將在未來的某個時候出現，我猜它們甚至還沒有出現，但儘管如此，蘋果也在專注於讓人工智能成為其業務的核心部分。

But the biggest similarity is that whoever adds AI at the end of their name sees their stock price surge, and that drives a lot of speculation.

但最大的相似之處在於，誰在名字後面加上人工智能，誰的股價就會飆升，從而引發大量投機活動。

And NVIDIA is one of the greatest examples of AI application, in 2023, their revenue was 26 billion dollars, fast forward to 2025, their revenue is 130 billion dollars, that's a massive increase, and according to different estimates, it's only going to grow and within the next couple of years, it is going to double.

英偉達是人工智能應用的最佳範例之一，2023 年，他們的收入是 260 億美元，快進到 2025 年，他們的收入是 1300 億美元，這是一個巨大的增長，而且根據不同的估計，它只會增長，在未來幾年內，它將翻一番。

And that is amazing, we don't have such expectations for Apple, which is the most successful company in history, we don't have the exact same expectations with Microsoft or Google.

令人驚訝的是，我們對史上最成功的蘋果公司沒有這樣的期望，我們對微軟或谷歌也沒有完全相同的期望。

The only company that we can have similar estimations is NVIDIA, because everybody wants their GPUs, without their GPUs, you cannot build the most advanced AIs, Amazon wants to build their AI models, but without the NVIDIA GPUs, it's impossible.

我們唯一能做出類似估計的公司是英偉達，因為每個人都想要他們的 GPU，沒有他們的 GPU，你就無法構建最先進的人工智能，亞馬遜想要構建他們的人工智能模型，但沒有英偉達的 GPU，這是不可能的。

And that's why we have these companies investing in other businesses, in other NVIDIA alternatives and competitors, in order to diversify the market and not let NVIDIA have an entire monopoly on this industry.

這就是為什麼我們讓這些公司投資其他業務，投資英偉達的其他替代產品和競爭對手，以實現市場多元化，不讓英偉達完全壟斷這個行業。

As of today, they have spent over a hundred billion dollars in AI, and a hundred billion dollars is not a joke, that's a lot of money, it's literally the kind of money that some governments have their entire annual budget, and this is probably the lowest estimate, if we include other factors, it's probably much more than that, it's probably in hundreds of billions of dollars.

到今天為止，他們在人工智能上的投入已經超過了千億美元，千億美元可不是開玩笑的，這是一筆不小的數目，簡直就是一些國家政府的全部年度預算，這可能是最低的估算，如果加上其他因素，可能遠不止這個數字，很可能是上千億美元。

This is just the beginning of the road, what is going to happen in a year from now, 2 years from now, 5 years from now, this number could easily go to 1 trillion dollars.

這僅僅是道路的開始，一年後、兩年後、五年後會發生什麼，這個數字很容易就會達到 1 萬億美元。

And it's interesting that some companies are rebranding themselves in such a way that they are calling themselves entire AI companies, such as Tesla, Tesla is a car company, then they turned themselves into a software business, and now Elon Musk claims that Tesla is the largest AI company in the world.

有趣的是，一些公司正在以這樣一種方式重塑自己的品牌，他們稱自己是整個人工智能公司，比如特斯拉，特斯拉是一家汽車公司，後來他們把自己變成了一家軟件企業，現在埃隆-馬斯克聲稱特斯拉是世界上最大的人工智能公司。

Now, we can call them an AI company to a certain extent, because the initial goal of Tesla was to build the first ever self-driving car, and you cannot possibly build that without having AI technology, but nonetheless, this entire rebranding is very interesting, and it's not just happening with Tesla, it's happening with everybody.

現在，我們可以在一定程度上稱他們為人工智能公司，因為特斯拉的最初目標是打造史上第一輛自動駕駛汽車，而如果沒有人工智能技術，就不可能打造出這樣的汽車，但儘管如此，整個品牌重塑過程還是非常有趣的，而且這不僅發生在特斯拉身上，也發生在每個人身上。

But the biggest question is that, all of that drives a lot of speculation, because everybody wants to invest in the stock market, and they want to make a lot of money, but most people have no idea which of these stocks are going to survive.

但最大的問題是，所有這些都推動了大量投機活動，因為每個人都想投資股市，都想賺大錢，但大多數人都不知道哪些股票能存活下來。

The question is that, will it ever pay off, will these companies make the 500 billion dollars back?

問題是，這些公司是否能賺回 5000 億美元？

Yes, maybe AI is going to make everybody more productive, maybe AI is going to make it much easier to use, but in the world of investing, it's all about money, it's all about whether your investments are going to pay off or not, and if they're not going to pay off, then it turns into a bubble, and that's when some of the investors realize that maybe it's time to sell our stocks, because we want to make money at the end of the day, and when that sell-off happens, then we have a massive stock market crash.

是的，也許人工智能會讓每個人的工作效率更高，也許人工智能會讓人們更容易使用，但在投資領域，一切都與錢有關，一切都與你的投資是否會有回報有關，如果投資沒有回報，那麼它就會變成保麗龍，這時一些投資者就會意識到，也許是時候賣掉我們的股票了，因為我們最終還是想賺錢，而當拋售發生時，我們就會迎來大規模的股市崩盤。

While there are so many similarities between the dot-com revolution and the AI revolution, there are fundamental differences between the two, which is why the AI bubble is not going to burst like the dot-com bubble burst.

雖然網絡公司革命與人工智能革命有很多相似之處，但兩者之間也有本質區別，這就是為什麼人工智能保麗龍不會像網絡公司保麗龍破滅那樣破滅的原因。

First of all, the internet revolution primarily happened in the United States, yes, it was across the globe, it was happening in some part of Europe, in Japan and other countries, but if you look at the entire dot-com revolution, you will see that most of these companies emerged in the United States, and most of the capital that wanted to invest in the internet companies, it was invested in the United States.

首先，互聯網革命主要發生在美國，是的，它遍及全球，在歐洲、日本和其他國家的某些地區也有發生，但如果你看一下整個互聯網革命，你會發現這些公司大多出現在美國，想投資互聯網公司的大部分資本都投在了美國。

If you compare that to AI, AI today is not seen as the internet, it's seen as the next space race, and countries are rushing into the AI to make sure that they take full advantage out of it, which is creating a fundamental difference in the way they are being financed.

與人工智能相比，如今的人工智能已不再被視為互聯網，而被視為下一場太空競賽，各國都在匆忙投入人工智能，以確保充分利用人工智能，這就在融資方式上產生了根本性的差異。

Internet was primarily funded by private institutions who wanted to profit out of it, so you have hedge funds, investors, investment banks investing in different internet companies with the goal of profiting out of it.

互聯網的資金主要來自希望從中獲利的私人機構，是以有對沖基金、投資者、投資銀行投資不同的互聯網公司，目的是從中獲利。

But AI is also driven to a certain extent by private investors, but it's mostly being driven by governments.

但人工智能在一定程度上也是由私人投資者推動的，但主要是由政府推動的。

Look at China that is rivaling the United States.

Most of the investments that are getting into AI are being funded by government, or maybe indirectly by different kind of institutions that get their funds from the government in the first place.

人工智能領域的大部分投資都是由政府資助的，也可能是由首先從政府獲得資金的各類機構間接資助的。

The same thing that you can see is happening in India, European Union, and the rest of the world, because all these governments understand the importance of AI and they are not willing to simply gamble it on the United States or some private investors.

你可以看到，同樣的事情也發生在印度、歐盟和世界其他地方，因為所有這些國家的政府都明白人工智能的重要性，他們不願意簡單地把它賭在美國或一些私人投資者身上。

Secondly, back in the days, United States was at the top of the game, it was literally the only country that could dominate the world and nobody could say anything to the United States.

其次，在美國處於巔峰的年代，它是唯一一個可以稱霸世界的國家，沒有人可以對美國說三道四。

The US had so much power back in the 1990s that it could literally establish any kind of rules anywhere and nobody could say anything to the United States, so the US could simply relax and let the free market do its thing.

上世紀 90 年代，美國擁有強大的實力，它可以在任何地方制定任何規則，沒有人可以對美國說三道四，是以美國可以放鬆警惕，讓自由市場做自己的事情。

Now compare that to today where we have real competition from China, EU and India.

如今，我們面臨著來自中國、歐盟和印度的真正競爭。

The entire geopolitical tensions that you see in the world today between United States and the European Union, United States and China, between China and the EU is that all those countries became so increasingly strong that all of them want to dominate the world and when you are having so many real competition, you cannot let the free market do its thing.

當今世界，美國與歐盟、美國與中國、中國與歐盟之間的地緣政治緊張局勢，就是因為所有這些國家都變得越來越強大，都想主宰世界。

Now compare that to 1990s, China was barely being integrated into the global economy, European Union was not even formed so you simply had like the western part of Europe that was heavily dependent on the United States, Japan was a good power back in the days but it was also heavily dependent on the United States especially for military, Russia was literally trying to get its economy together after the collapse of the Soviet Union and India was barely feeding its population and that left the United States at the top of the game.

與 20 世紀 90 年代相比，中國幾乎沒有融入全球經濟，歐盟甚至還沒有成立，是以歐洲西部嚴重依賴美國，日本在當時也是一個不錯的強國，但它也嚴重依賴美國，特別是在軍事方面，俄羅斯在蘇聯解體後正試圖振作經濟，印度則勉強養活自己的人口，這使得美國處於遊戲的頂端。

Today you have China, the second world's largest economy and they are literally saying that we are going to compete, we are going to make sure that we are going to lead the world in AI and the emergence of DeepSeek last year was a great example.

如今，中國已成為世界第二大經濟體，他們確實在說，我們要參與競爭，我們要確保在人工智能領域引領世界，去年 DeepSeek 的出現就是一個很好的例子。

It shook the entire world especially Silicon Valley that they could accomplish with less than 6 million dollars what Chad GPT did with over a billion dollars.

他們用不到 600 萬美元就完成了查德-GPT 用超過 10 億美元完成的工作，這震驚了整個世界，尤其是硅谷。

That's a huge difference in how much they have invested.

Imagine where the competition is going to be a couple of years from now.

試想一下，幾年後的競爭對手會在哪裡？