knowing the price of something or knowing with perfect information how much something should cost?

知道某物的價格，還是有完整的資訊來了解其成本應該要是多少？

It’s a trick question.

這是個陷阱題。

Suppose there are two farmers, Al Trewis and Moe Cashferme.

假設有兩個農夫——Al Trewis 和 Moe Cashferme。

Each of them has 500 acres of land that could grow either corn or soybeans.

他們各擁有 500 畝地，可種植玉米或大豆。

Suppose I ask what their plans are.

假設我問他們種植計畫為何。

Both of them text back, "I don’t know."

兩人都回：「我不知道」。

Now suppose we borrowed a crystal ball from some genie, and we know everything.

現在，假設我們跟精靈借了水晶球，所以我們無所不知。

Among the things the crystal ball can tell us are that Brazil has had a terrible summer

水晶球能告訴我的其中一件事是，巴西剛經歷了淒慘的夏天，

with drought, and then late floods that wiped out 40% of their soybean crop.

發生了乾旱以及晚夏的水災，摧毀其百分之 40 的大豆作物。

It also tells us that new uses for soybean curd have pushed up consumer demand for soy paste all over Asia.

神燈也告訴我們，豆腐的新用法提升了亞洲各地消費者的豆醬需求。

Meanwhile, corn crop yields have hit record highs all over the world,

同時，玉米產量在世界各地都創下新高。

and at the same time, several countries ended their corn-based ethanol programs,

在此同時，許多國家終止了用玉米製造乙醇的計畫，

leading to an extraordinary corn surplus.

造成大量玉米過剩。

Our first farmer, Al, has to decide what to plant.

第一位農夫 Al 必須決定要種植什麼。

Al never wanted anything for himself.

Al 從不為自己著想，

All he cares about was doing what was best for all of humanity.

他唯一關心的是做什麼對人類群體最有利。

He does research trying to decide which crop will be better for humanity as a whole,

他做了些研究來決定哪種作物整體來說對人類最好，

but it’s hard for Al to determine what information is most relevant

但對 Al 來說，判定哪些資訊相關很困難，

'cause he doesn’t trust price information,

因為他不信任價格資訊。

and the knowledge that he needs is too dispersed, too specific, and too hard to learn.

而他需要的知識又過於分散、太特定，還很難學習。

Now, Al knows a lot, but still not enough.

現在，即使 Al 懂了很多，仍舊不夠。

He’s stuck at "I don’t know."

他陷入不知所措的泥淖，

So he makes a guess, plants corn.

於是他隨便選了一個，那便是種玉米。

Al's put a tremendous amount of time and resources into his research

Al 花了大量時間和資源在研究上，

instead of focusing on what he’s good at, running a farm.

而非專注於他所擅長的——經營農場。

As a result, he doesn’t get much corn planted, has a hard time selling the corn he does produce.

結果，他沒種出多少玉米，在玉米銷售上也困頓不堪。

He has to sell for very little, and he ends up bankrupt.

他必須低價拋售，最終宣告破產。

Let’s look at Moe’s experience.

接下來，我們來看看 Moe 的狀況。

Since he cares only about profits, he focuses on prices.

由於他只關心獲利，他只專注於價格。

In early February, the price of corn futures falls sharply,

在二月初，玉米期貨的價格驟降，

but soy futures indicate that prices for soy delivered in August should be excellent.

但大豆期貨顯示，八月交割的大豆價格應該很樂觀。

Why did this happen?

為何如此？

Moe has no idea, and he couldn’t possibly care less.

Moe 毫無頭緒，也毫不在乎。

Moe sells a large soy futures contract to lock in the high price

Moe 賣出許多大豆期貨以鎖住高價，

and plants soy on every square inch of land that he owns.

且他在擁有的每吋土地上都種植了大豆。

It’s a selfish bet, one that’ll make Moe a lot of money.

這是個自私的賭注，可讓 Moe 賺取大把鈔票。

Instead of trying to be an expert in all the disparate subjects he’d need to master to have perfect information about the marketplace,

他沒有為了取得市場全面資訊，而去嘗試精通所有領域，

he just focused time and resources on running his farm,

而是將時間和資源投入在經營自己的農場，

and the only other information he used was prices,

他唯一會使用到的資訊就是價格，

so he produced a lot of soybeans and did well for himself.

所以他生產大量大豆，並為自己謀得好處。

Which of the two did the right thing, the better thing for society?

這兩人誰做對了？誰又對社會較有貢獻呢？

What would the genie with the crystal ball have told us?

水晶球精靈會給我們什麼答案？

The genie would have looked at the glut of corn and the shortage of soy that made it so valuable,

精靈應該會看看玉米過剩情況及造成大豆價值不斐的短缺問題，

and told us what people need is more soy.

然後告訴我們，人們比較需要大豆。

But of course, there’s no such thing as genies in the real world.

但當然，現實世界裡沒有精靈。

Information is too dispersed, too complicated to solve the "IDK" problem through research.

資訊過於分散、太複雜，以致於無法經由研究來解決「我不知道」這個問題。

There’s just too much to know.

有太多資訊得知道了！

Fortunately, farmers don’t need a crystal ball because prices do exactly what we were hoping that the genie would do.

幸好，農夫不需要水晶球，因為價格恰好會做我們希望精靈能做的事。

Farmers don’t need to know why a price is high or low,

農夫不需要知道為什麼價格高或低，

and in fact, no single person could possibly explain it fully,

事實上，沒人能完整解釋其原因。

but by growing the crop that produces the greater profit,

但透過種植利潤較高的作物，

farmers can produce the crop that solves the shortage, meets the demand, and satisfies the requirements of innovation.

農夫能生產可解決短缺、符合需求，又能滿足創新需要的作物。

It’s impossible to attain perfect information about the entire marketplace, which is changing all the time.

我們不可能取得全市場的完整資訊，資訊隨時都在變。

Prices are a way of condensing all that information into one easily understood signal, almost like magic.

價格能將所有資訊濃縮成一個讓人一看就懂的信號，就像魔法一樣。

Keep Learning Liberty, click on one of our other videos to watch more.

請繼續使用 Learning Liberty，點擊其他影片觀看。

If you wanna do more than watch videos, click on the link for student opportunities and more resources.

如果不只是想看影片，也可以點擊連結獲取學習機會和更多資源。