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What’s better: Knowing the price of something or knowing with perfect information how much something should cost?
比較一下哪個好:知道某物的價格或了解某物成本是多少?
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It's a trick question.
這是個很妙的問題
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Suppose there are two farmers Al Trewis and Moe Cashferme. Each of them has 500 acres of land
假設有兩個農夫- Al Trewis和Moe Cashferme. 他們每個人各有500畝的地
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that could grow either corn or soybeans. Suppose I ask what their plans are. Both of
可以種植玉米或是大豆. 假設我問他們的種植計畫為何? 兩人皆回答
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them text back, “I don’t know.” Now suppose we borrowed a crystal ball from
“我不知道” 現在, 假設我們跟精靈借了個水晶球
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some genie and we know everything. Among the things the crystal ball can tell us are that
然後我們知道所有事情. 而其中, 水晶球告訴我們
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Brazil has had a terrible summer with drought then late floods that wiped out 40% of their
巴西前陣子在夏天時有嚴重乾害, 而近期發生水災使得大豆產量少了40%
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soybean crop. It also tells us that new uses for soybean curd have pushed up consumer demand for
另外我們得知豆腐的新吃法使得豆瓣醬在全亞洲的需求提升.
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soy paste all over Asia. Meanwhile, corn crop yields have hit record highs all over the world and,
此時, 玉米的產出在全世界創新高,
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At the same time, several countries ended their corn-based ethanol programs leading to an extraordinary corn surplus.
然而, 許多國家不再施行以玉米釀酒精的計畫,因而造成大量玉米剩餘.
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Our first farmer, Al, has to decide what to
第一位農夫, Al, 必須決定要種植什麼.
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plant. Al never wanted anything for himself. All he cares about was doing what’s best
Al 這位農夫從未為自己設想. 他關心的盡是做什麼才對人類最有利.
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for all of humanity. He does research trying to decide which crop would be better for humanity
他試著做研究來決定哪種作物整體來說對人類最好,
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as a whole, but it’s hard for Al to determine what information is most relevant because
但對Al來說很難去判定哪個資訊最為相關, 因為
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he doesn’t trust price information and the knowledge that he needs is too dispersed, too
他不信任價格資訊而且他握有的知識又過於分散,
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specific, and too hard to learn. Now Al knows a lot – but still not enough.
太特定,也不好學習. Al現在即使懂了很多,卻還是不夠.
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He’s stuck at, “I don’t know.” So he makes a guess, plants corn. Al’s put
他陷入一個不知所措的泥淖, 於是他跟它賭了一把-種玉米.
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a tremendous amount of time and resources into his research instead of focusing on what
Al 花了多數時間和大量資源在他的研究上而非專注在
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he’s good at – running a farm. As a result, he doesn’t get much corn planted, has a
他所擅長的-經營農場. 結果想當然爾, 他在玉米收成不佳,
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hard time selling the corn he does produce. He has to sell for very little and he ends up
在販售玉米時困頓不堪.他得用很低的價格來賣,而最終
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bankrupt. Let’s look at Moe’s experience.
破產. 接下來,我們來看看Moe的情形.
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Since he cares only about profits, he focuses on prices. In early February, the price of corn futuresfalls sharply.
因為他只關心獲利, 他專注在價格上. 在二月初, 玉米期貨價格
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But soy futures indicate that prices for soy delivered in August should
大幅下跌, 但八月時發表的大豆期貨顯示大豆的價格
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be excellent. Why did this happen? Moe has no idea and he
很樂觀. 為什麼會發生這樣的事呢?Moe對此毫無頭緒而且他
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couldn’t possibly care less. Moe sells a large soy futures contract to lock in the
或許毫不在乎.Moe以高價簽訂了許多大豆期貨契約
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high price and plants soy on every square inch of land that he owns. It’s a selfish
且在他所擁有的每一吋每一畝的土地種植大豆. 這是個自私的
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bet, one that’ll make Moe a lot of money. Instead of trying to be an expert in all the
賭注, 但也因為這樣讓Moe賺取大把鈔票, 而非試著在他所需
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disparate subjects he’d need to master to have perfect information about the marketplace,
專精有關不同領域的市場資訊裡成為專家
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he just focused time and resources on running his farm. And the only other information he
他只專注在時間和資源在經營他的農場. 而價格是他唯一會額外使用的資訊.
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used was prices. So he produced a lot of soybeans and did well for himself.
所以他生產大量的大豆並為自己帶來好處.
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Which of the two did the right thing, the better thing for society? What would the genie
他們兩個人誰對社會較有貢獻呢?精靈的水晶球
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with the crystal ball have told us? The genie would have looked at the glut of corn and
可能會跟我們說了什麼呢? 精靈當初看到大量的玉米和
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the shortage of soy that made it so valuable and told us what people need is more soy.
短缺的大豆, 使得大豆價值不斐, 這也訴說著人們比較需要大豆
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But of course, there’s no such thing as genies in the real world. Information is too
但當然, 現實世界裡沒有精靈這種東西. 資訊過於
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dispersed, too complicated, to solve the "IDK" problem through research. There's just too
分散,且太複雜, 以致於無法經由研究來解決"I do not know"的問題. 太多東西
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much to know. Fortunately, farmers don’t need a crystal
需要了解清楚了.還好, 農夫不需要一個水晶球
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ball because prices do exactly what we were hoping that the genie would do. Farmers don’t
因為價格恰好與我們所希望精靈所做得相同. 農夫
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need to know why a price is high or low, and in fact no single person could possibly explain
不需要知道為什麼價格高或低, 事實上沒有人能充分解釋原因.
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it fully. But by growing the crop that produces the greater profit, farmers can produce the
但藉由增加生產利潤較高的作物, 農夫能生產此作物
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crop that solves the shortage, meets the demand, and satisfies the requirements of innovation.
來解決短缺的問題, 迎合需求, 以及滿足創新的需要
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It’s impossible to attain perfect information about the entire marketplace, which is changing
不可能拿到整個市場精確無誤的資訊, 價格隨時都在改變.
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all the time. Prices are a way of condensing all that information into one easily understood
價格是一個簡化所有相關資訊讓人ㄧ看就懂的簡單信號
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signal. Almost like magic.
就像魔法一樣.