It's a trick question.

這是個很妙的問題

Suppose there are two farmers Al Trewis and Moe Cashferme. Each of them has 500 acres of land

假設有兩個農夫- Al Trewis和Moe Cashferme. 他們每個人各有500畝的地

that could grow either corn or soybeans. Suppose I ask what their plans are. Both of

可以種植玉米或是大豆. 假設我問他們的種植計畫為何? 兩人皆回答

them text back, “I don’t know.” Now suppose we borrowed a crystal ball from

“我不知道” 現在, 假設我們跟精靈借了個水晶球

some genie and we know everything. Among the things the crystal ball can tell us are that

然後我們知道所有事情. 而其中, 水晶球告訴我們

Brazil has had a terrible summer with drought then late floods that wiped out 40% of their

巴西前陣子在夏天時有嚴重乾害, 而近期發生水災使得大豆產量少了40%

soybean crop. It also tells us that new uses for soybean curd have pushed up consumer demand for

另外我們得知豆腐的新吃法使得豆瓣醬在全亞洲的需求提升.

soy paste all over Asia. Meanwhile, corn crop yields have hit record highs all over the world and,

此時, 玉米的產出在全世界創新高,

At the same time, several countries ended their corn-based ethanol programs leading to an extraordinary corn surplus.

然而, 許多國家不再施行以玉米釀酒精的計畫,因而造成大量玉米剩餘.

Our first farmer, Al, has to decide what to

第一位農夫, Al, 必須決定要種植什麼.

plant. Al never wanted anything for himself. All he cares about was doing what’s best

Al 這位農夫從未為自己設想. 他關心的盡是做什麼才對人類最有利.

for all of humanity. He does research trying to decide which crop would be better for humanity

他試著做研究來決定哪種作物整體來說對人類最好,

as a whole, but it’s hard for Al to determine what information is most relevant because

但對Al來說很難去判定哪個資訊最為相關, 因為

he doesn’t trust price information and the knowledge that he needs is too dispersed, too

他不信任價格資訊而且他握有的知識又過於分散,

specific, and too hard to learn. Now Al knows a lot – but still not enough.

太特定,也不好學習. Al現在即使懂了很多，卻還是不夠.

He’s stuck at, “I don’t know.” So he makes a guess, plants corn. Al’s put

他陷入一個不知所措的泥淖, 於是他跟它賭了一把-種玉米.

a tremendous amount of time and resources into his research instead of focusing on what

Al 花了多數時間和大量資源在他的研究上而非專注在

he’s good at – running a farm. As a result, he doesn’t get much corn planted, has a

他所擅長的-經營農場. 結果想當然爾, 他在玉米收成不佳,

hard time selling the corn he does produce. He has to sell for very little and he ends up

在販售玉米時困頓不堪.他得用很低的價格來賣,而最終

bankrupt. Let’s look at Moe’s experience.

破產. 接下來,我們來看看Moe的情形.

Since he cares only about profits, he focuses on prices. In early February, the price of corn futuresfalls sharply.

因為他只關心獲利, 他專注在價格上. 在二月初, 玉米期貨價格

But soy futures indicate that prices for soy delivered in August should

大幅下跌, 但八月時發表的大豆期貨顯示大豆的價格

be excellent. Why did this happen? Moe has no idea and he

很樂觀. 為什麼會發生這樣的事呢？Moe對此毫無頭緒而且他

couldn’t possibly care less. Moe sells a large soy futures contract to lock in the

或許毫不在乎.Moe以高價簽訂了許多大豆期貨契約

high price and plants soy on every square inch of land that he owns. It’s a selfish

且在他所擁有的每一吋每一畝的土地種植大豆. 這是個自私的

bet, one that’ll make Moe a lot of money. Instead of trying to be an expert in all the

賭注, 但也因為這樣讓Moe賺取大把鈔票, 而非試著在他所需

disparate subjects he’d need to master to have perfect information about the marketplace,

專精有關不同領域的市場資訊裡成為專家

he just focused time and resources on running his farm. And the only other information he

他只專注在時間和資源在經營他的農場. 而價格是他唯一會額外使用的資訊.

used was prices. So he produced a lot of soybeans and did well for himself.

所以他生產大量的大豆並為自己帶來好處.

Which of the two did the right thing, the better thing for society? What would the genie

他們兩個人誰對社會較有貢獻呢？精靈的水晶球

with the crystal ball have told us? The genie would have looked at the glut of corn and

可能會跟我們說了什麼呢? 精靈當初看到大量的玉米和

the shortage of soy that made it so valuable and told us what people need is more soy.

短缺的大豆, 使得大豆價值不斐, 這也訴說著人們比較需要大豆

But of course, there’s no such thing as genies in the real world. Information is too

但當然, 現實世界裡沒有精靈這種東西. 資訊過於

dispersed, too complicated, to solve the "IDK" problem through research. There's just too

分散,且太複雜, 以致於無法經由研究來解決"I do not know"的問題. 太多東西

much to know. Fortunately, farmers don’t need a crystal

需要了解清楚了.還好, 農夫不需要一個水晶球

ball because prices do exactly what we were hoping that the genie would do. Farmers don’t

因為價格恰好與我們所希望精靈所做得相同. 農夫

need to know why a price is high or low, and in fact no single person could possibly explain

不需要知道為什麼價格高或低, 事實上沒有人能充分解釋原因.

it fully. But by growing the crop that produces the greater profit, farmers can produce the

但藉由增加生產利潤較高的作物, 農夫能生產此作物

crop that solves the shortage, meets the demand, and satisfies the requirements of innovation.

來解決短缺的問題, 迎合需求, 以及滿足創新的需要

It’s impossible to attain perfect information about the entire marketplace, which is changing

不可能拿到整個市場精確無誤的資訊, 價格隨時都在改變.

all the time. Prices are a way of condensing all that information into one easily understood

價格是一個簡化所有相關資訊讓人ㄧ看就懂的簡單信號

signal. Almost like magic.

就像魔法一樣.