Name: 帕斯卡爾的賭注在你與上帝打賭之前先看看這個 (Pascal’s Wager: Watch This Before You Bet on God)
Uploaded: 2025-04-01T17:38:40.000Z
Duration: 22 min

Today I want to talk about a bet that fooled the world, an apologetic argument that relies on a gamble, a misuse and misunderstanding of probability, and many of you know this by the term Pascal's Wager.

今天，我想談談一個愚弄世人的賭局，一個以賭博為基礎的辯解論證，一個對概率的誤用和誤解，很多人都知道帕斯卡爾賭注這個詞。

轉承詞

And it is so much more interesting than you probably imagine, because to really understand this argument, as well as its flaws, you need to first understand the man who made it.

這比你想象的要有趣得多，因為要真正理解這一論點及其缺陷，你首先需要理解提出這一論點的人。

未來進行式

So today we're going to be looking at Blaise Pascal, a mathematical prodigy who had a night of fire, as he called it, a two-hour experience with the divine, where he became obsessed with the afterlife.

今天，我們將探討布萊斯-帕斯卡，一位數學天才，他曾有過一個所謂的 "火之夜"，一次長達兩小時的神性體驗，在那裡，他對來世產生了濃厚的興趣。

Imagine this man feverishly riding by candlelight as the world outside him is changing.

想象一下，這個人在燭光下狂熱地騎行，而他外面的世界正在發生變化。

This is at the same time as Baruch Spinoza, who I covered just a couple weeks ago.

這與我幾周前剛剛介紹過的巴魯克-斯賓諾莎（Baruch Spinoza）同時出現。

This is at a time when philosophy and science and rationalism is changing much of Europe.

而此時，哲學、科學和理性主義正在改變歐洲的大部分地區。

But inside that tiny little room, Pascal is utilizing a different kind of reasoning.

但是，在那個狹小的房間裡，帕斯卡爾用的卻是另一種推理方法。

A bet, a wager is being placed, not with dice, not with cards, but with eternity.

賭注、賭注下的不是骰子，不是紙牌，而是永恆。

And Pascal was a genius, no doubt about it.

毫無疑問，帕斯卡爾是個天才。

But like so many other geniuses, we see how close it was to madness.

但是，就像其他許多天才一樣，我們看到了他離瘋狂有多近。

Add in a spiritual experience, and you have everything you need for this greatest gamble.

再加上精神體驗，你就擁有了這場最大賭博所需的一切。

This argument that has been used for centuries to try and justify faith, an argument so deceptively simple that even believers today throw it around like it's some kind of a trump card.

這個論點幾個世紀以來一直被用來為信仰辯護，這個論點如此簡單，以至於今天的信徒也把它當作王牌一樣到處亂扔。

But was it really a winning hand, or was Pascal just bluffing?

但這真的是一手好牌嗎，還是帕斯卡在虛張聲勢？

So today for the agenda, I want to talk about Blaise Pascal.

所以今天的議程，我想談談布萊斯-帕斯卡爾。

I want to talk about who he was, what he accomplished, what his night of fire was, how it changed him, and what he was working on when he died.

我想談談他是誰，他取得了哪些成就，他的 "火之夜 "是怎樣的，"火之夜 "如何改變了他，以及他去世時正在做什麼。

Which is where we get the wager, by the way.

順便說一句，這就是我們的賭注。

Then for anyone that doesn't know, I'll make sure that we understand what the wager is.

那麼對於不知道的人，我會確保大家明白賭注是什麼。

Then we will thoroughly cover why it fails.

然後，我們將全面介紹失敗的原因。

And then we'll cover the legacy of this bet, and why it still remains today, and what it really says about faith.

然後，我們將介紹這場賭局的遺產，以及為什麼它至今仍然存在，以及它對信仰的真正意義。

So, though this topic, Pascal's wager, has been handled many times, I hope to bring something new to the table with it today.

是以，雖然帕斯卡爾的賭注這個話題已經被討論過很多次，但我希望今天能給大家帶來一些新的東西。

Again, so important to understand, he's born in 1623 in France.

同樣重要的是，他於 1623 年出生在法國。

A mathematical prodigy, he develops Pascal's theorem at just age 16, laying the groundwork for projective geometry.

他是數學神童，年僅 16 歲就提出了帕斯卡定理，為投影幾何奠定了基礎。

He pioneered probability theory, which is ironic, as it is the same field that would fuel Pascal's wager.

他開創了概率論，這具有諷刺意味，因為正是這一領域助長了帕斯卡爾的賭注。

He built one of the first mechanical calculators, contributed to fluid mechanics and pressure laws, Pascal's law.

他製造了最早的機械計算器之一，對流體力學和壓力定律、帕斯卡定律做出了貢獻。

And then later in life, again after his night of fire, he turns toward religion.

後來，在經歷了 "火之夜 "之後，他又轉向了宗教。

He abandons most of his scientific work at this point, and moves on to defend Jansenist Christianity.

此時，他放棄了大部分科學工作，轉而為詹森主義基督教辯護。

It's a form of Catholicism that more closely resembles the Protestant Calvinist, hated by the Pope and the Jesuits.

這是一種更接近於新教加爾文派的天主教，為教皇和耶穌會所痛恨。

And so Pascal makes an entire work dedicated towards those arguments.

是以，帕斯卡爾專門為這些論點寫了一整部作品。

Provincial letters, as they came to be known.

But it's not the only work that he was involved in.

但這並不是他參與的唯一工作。

He had this grand apologetic that he was not able to finish before he died, and it was published after his death.

他生前未能完成這篇宏大的歉意之作，在他死後才得以出版。

It's called Pensee, and it is where we get Pascal's wager.

它被稱為 "Pensee"，是帕斯卡賭注的來源。

You can read it for yourself and see all of the different ideas, again though very fragmented, about how he defended the faith.

你可以自己讀一讀，看看關於他如何捍衛信仰的各種不同觀點，雖然也是非常零散的。

And I think it's important to understand that this was a man who suffered greatly.

我認為，重要的是要明白，這是一個飽受苦難的人。

The torture of his genius, for sure, but also true chronic suffering from illness with a great amount of pain.

他的天才固然是一種折磨，但也是一種真正的長期病痛折磨。

He becomes deeply obsessed with the idea of eternity and the afterlife, brought on by what I keep referring to as the night of fire.

他深深沉迷於永恆和來世的概念，我一直稱之為 "火之夜"。

帕斯卡爾自己也是這麼稱呼它的。

It's something he never spoke about or publicly wrote about.

這是他從未談及或公開寫過的事情。

But we know about it because it was discovered after his death.

但我們之所以知道它，是因為它是在他死後被發現的。

Hidden in the lining of his coat, he had it sewn in so that it would be literally close to his heart at all times.

他把它藏在大衣的襯裡裡，縫在衣服裡，這樣它就能一直貼在他的心臟上。

A document that we now call the memorial.

我們現在稱之為紀念碑的文件。

It's a very brief and poetic and intense description of his experience, and I'm going to read it to you now.

這是對他經歷的一段非常簡短、詩意而又強烈的描述，我現在就讀給你們聽。

From about half past ten in the evening until about half past midnight.

從晚上十點半左右到午夜十二點半左右。

發自內心的喜悅  耶穌基督的神

Forgetfulness of the world and of everything except God.

忘記世界，忘記上帝之外的一切。

He can only be found by the ways taught in the gospel.

只有通過福音書中教導的方法才能找到他。

You know, the kind of saying thing every wonderful, rational, logical person sews into the inner lining of their coat to keep next to their heart.

你知道，每一個優秀、理性、合乎邏輯的人都會把這種說法縫進大衣的內襯，放在心臟旁邊。

How do we not talk about this more when referencing Pascal's wager?

在提到帕斯卡爾賭注時，我們怎麼能不多說幾句呢？

Spiritual experiences aren't proof of anything other than what our brains are capable of.

精神體驗並不能證明什麼，只能證明我們大腦的能力。

It could have been induced without any assistance.

它可以在沒有任何幫助的情況下誘發。

His chronic illness could have driven it to him.

His fear of his eventual and soon coming end.

他對自己最終和即將到來的結局感到恐懼。

There's irony in here that we are going to get to when we refute the wager.

我們在反駁這個賭注時會發現其中的諷刺意味。

But understanding this about this man, I think, is incredibly important.

但我認為，瞭解這個人的這一點非常重要。

And again, this is the catalyst to three huge things.

同樣，這也是三件大事的催化劑。

He turns away from probability, except for this horrible wager.

除了這個可怕的賭注，他遠離了概率。

把他的注意力簡單地轉移到神學上。

He becomes a devout Jansenist, defending it against the Jesuits and the Pope.

他成為虔誠的詹森主義者，與耶穌會士和教皇對抗，捍衛詹森主義。

And he writes Ponce, a defense of Christianity targeting skeptics.

他還撰寫了《龐塞》（Ponce）一書，以懷疑論者為對象為基督教辯護。

順便說一句，這本書是寫給我們的。

It was intended clearly as an apologetic masterwork.

該書的目的很明確，就是要成為一部辯護性的鉅著。

但帕斯卡爾在完成該書之前就去世了。

And the wager is the most famous of the many arguments that he lays out.

在他提出的眾多論點中，賭注是最著名的一個。

At its core, this is not an argument for the existence of God.

就其核心而言，這並不是對上帝存在的論證。

字幕列表影片播放

帕斯卡爾的賭注在你與上帝打賭之前先看看這個 (Pascal’s Wager: Watch This Before You Bet on God)

specific

chronic

assume

incredibly