Consumer confidence in where the economy is headed hit a 12 year low in March 2025.

2025 年 3 月，消費者對經濟走向的信心創下了 12 年來的新低。

Consumer sentiment is oftentimes more predictive than people's objective financial situation.

消費者情緒往往比人們的客觀財務狀況更具預測性。

Even though Americans are worried about the economy, they seem to be spending more.

儘管美國人對經濟憂心忡忡，但他們似乎花得更多。

Roughly one in five Americans are shopping out of fear of future price hikes dubbed doom spending.

大約五分之一的美國人因擔心未來價格上漲而購物，這種擔心被稱為 "末日消費"。

Doom spending is making impulsive purchases largely driven out of fear over what the future may bring.

末日消費就是衝動購物，主要是出於對未來的恐懼。

In some cases, it's a kind of retail therapy, but it can also be a strategy to get ahead of economic uncertainty.

在某些情況下，這是一種零售療法，但也可能是一種應對經濟不確定性的策略。

People are worried for a number of really reasonable reasons.

人們擔心的原因很多，也很合理。

We as humans hate uncertainty and are averse to volatility.

我們人類討厭不確定性，厭惡波動。

And so when there is whiplash happening at a national level as to what tariffs are happening with which country and how it's going to affect our domestic industries, that makes people really nervous.

是以，當在國家層面上出現對哪個國家徵收什麼關稅，以及這將如何影響我們的國內產業時，人們就會非常緊張。

People are concerned when they go to the grocery store and they continue to see rising prices.

當人們去雜貨店購物時，看到價格不斷上漲，就會感到擔憂。

It's not just consumers who are concerned.

擔憂的不僅僅是消費者。

Major companies, the Federal Reserve and Wall Street are all signaling uncertainty.

各大公司、美聯儲和華爾街都發出了不確定的信號。

The S&P 500 dropped 10 percent from record highs in February, suggesting investor fears over an economic slowdown.

標準普爾 500 指數從 2 月份的歷史高點下跌了 10%，表明投資者擔心經濟放緩。

Here's why Americans are spending more even in tough times and what that means for the economy.

以下是美國人在艱難時期仍增加消費的原因，以及這對經濟的意義。

Starting in February, when people started to get nervous about tariffs and how it might impact them, and most people do expect that there will be some financial hit from some of the trade tensions that are going on right now.

從二月份開始，人們開始對關稅以及關稅可能對他們產生的影響感到緊張，而且大多數人確實預計，目前正在發生的一些貿易緊張局勢將對金融造成一定的衝擊。

So one question that often gets asked is why, when people feel economic uncertainty, why would a subset of the population go out and increase their spending?

是以，一個經常被問到的問題是，當人們感到經濟不確定時，為什麼一部分人會出去增加消費？

For some, shopping can serve as a way to hedge their future spending.

對一些人來說，購物可以作為對沖未來支出的一種方式。

I expect rising prices to happen tomorrow.

我預計明天就會出現價格上漲。

Therefore, I'm going to consume today as a way of saving money.

是以，我今天要把消費作為一種省錢的方式。

Economists say that Trump's tariffs on imports from Canada, China and Mexico are bound to raise prices on a wide range of consumer goods, things that we buy every day.

經濟學家說，特朗普對來自加拿大、中國和墨西哥的進口商品徵收關稅，勢必會提高我們每天都要購買的各種消費品的價格。

So most consumers are rightfully concerned about that.

是以，大多數消費者對此表示擔憂是理所當然的。

People expect that these tariffs will impact them.

人們期望這些關稅會對他們產生影響。

And in many cases, they will.

在許多情況下，他們會這樣做。

So a lot of times consumers are trying to get ahead of it by buying things now instead of waiting when the price may be higher.

是以，很多時候消費者都想搶佔先機，現在就買東西，而不是等到價格可能更高時再買。

For others, it may not be that clear cut.

對其他人來說，情況可能沒那麼明朗。

We also have to recognize that we are beautiful humans with a beautiful, imperfect brain.

我們還必須認識到，我們是美麗的人類，有一個美麗而不完美的大腦。

And so oftentimes when we feel a lack of control, we try to grab on to anything that we can control and increase our hedonic adaptation and increase our mood.

是以，很多時候，當我們感到缺乏控制時，就會試圖抓住一切可以控制的東西，增加我們的享樂適應性，提高我們的情緒。

Consumers spent less than anticipated in February 2025, according to the latest retail sales numbers, but the overall sales still showed steady growth.

根據最新的零售銷售數據，2025 年 2 月消費者的消費額低於預期，但總體銷售額仍呈穩步增長態勢。

This is despite concerns over an economic slowdown and rising inflation.

儘管人們對經濟放緩和通貨膨脹率上升表示擔憂。

Going into 2025, things were looking pretty stable, but some of the economic data recently has been a little all over the place.

進入 2025 年，情況看起來還算穩定，但最近的一些經濟數據卻有點不盡如人意。

And that is because there's sort of been this seesaw with trade policy and a lot of uncertainty about what's going to happen next.

這是因為貿易政策一直處於 "蹺蹺板 "狀態，而且下一步會發生什麼也存在很多不確定性。

Consumer spending has really been the engine that is keeping our economy on stable ground.

消費支出一直是保持經濟穩定的引擎。

Even the Federal Reserve is in wait and see mode.

就連美聯儲也在觀望。

The FOMC was hesitant to adjust interest rates at its March 2025 meeting without clearer economic signals.

在沒有更明確的經濟信號之前，FOMC 在 2025 年 3 月的會議上對調整利率猶豫不決。

Some experts warned that the spending pattern, along with tariff uncertainty, could be setting the economy up for a downturn.

一些專家警告說，這種消費模式以及關稅的不確定性，可能會為經濟下滑埋下隱患。

Our thoughts and expectations oftentimes become reality because we act on these thoughts and expectations.

我們的想法和期望往往會變成現實，因為我們會按照這些想法和期望行事。

If I think prices are going to increase tomorrow, what happens is I'm going to go out and spend today.

如果我認為明天價格會上漲，那麼我今天就會出去消費。

What does that do?

這有什麼用？

Well, sadly, it gets us into the cycle where it increases demand that suppliers can't meet, and so therefore it increased prices.

可悲的是，這讓我們陷入了一個循環，即需求增加，供應商無法滿足，是以價格上漲。

But there really is that risk that once spending starts to slow down, the economy could turn down or we could even face a possible recession.

但確實存在這樣的風險，一旦支出開始放緩，經濟就可能出現下滑，甚至可能面臨衰退。

So there is that wave of uncertainty that's taking hold.

是以，不確定性的浪潮正在形成。

And the consumer outlook is significantly lower than it was just a few months ago.

與幾個月前相比，消費前景明顯低迷。

So there's a lot of uncertainty that's going to hit this year, and that itself can pump the brakes on the economy.

是以，今年會有很多不確定因素，這本身就會給經濟踩剎車。

While this spending might seem to prop up the economy, it could be coming at a cost.

雖然這些支出看似支撐了經濟，但可能要付出代價。

One of the big drawbacks about doom spending is that it can really prompt you to overspend.

厄運消費的一大弊端是，它確實會促使你超支。

So if you are making extra purchases or do spending in ways that just don't fit in the budget, it's pretty unsustainable.

是以，如果你進行額外消費，或以不符合預算的方式進行消費，那就很難持續下去。

In fact, if you're leaning on credit cards to make some of these purchases, then you're paying a very high interest rate.

事實上，如果你依靠信用卡進行這些消費，那麼你要支付的利息就會非常高。

Credit card debt has surged past $1.2 trillion, and 34 percent of borrowers are taking on even more debt this year.

信用卡債務已超過 1.2 萬億美元，34% 的借款人今年將承擔更多債務。

Experts suggest people take a step back and reassess their finances to better prepare for what may be ahead.

專家建議人們退後一步，重新評估自己的財務狀況，以便更好地應對未來可能出現的情況。

I will tell people, love yourself enough to take a financial health day and tick off the things that you know you should have done yesterday, right?

我會告訴大家，要愛自己，愛到可以利用財務健康日來勾選那些你知道自己昨天就該做的事情，對嗎？

Whether or not it's a cancel that delivery app that you know it's charging you higher prices on top of the delivery fees on top of X, Y, Z, or whether or not it's canceling that subscription or whatever your financial situation is, everything takes time.

不管是取消那個外賣軟件，因為你知道它在 X、Y、Z 的基礎上向你收取更高的外賣費用，還是取消訂閱，或者不管你的財務狀況如何，一切都需要時間。

So give yourself that time.

所以，給自己一點時間。

Take that financial health day.

把握財務健康日。

The thing is that most Americans are doing pretty well right now.

問題是，大多數美國人現在過得還不錯。

I mean, we've had a prolonged period where most people had jobs and rising wages.

我的意思是，在很長一段時間裡，大多數人都有工作，工資也在不斷上漲。

So that's put a lot of households in a pretty stable situation.

這樣一來，很多家庭都處於相當穩定的狀態。

But that can change.

但這是可以改變的。

And the thing is, if people are increasingly stretched financially, then their situation is a little more precarious.

而問題是，如果人們的經濟狀況越來越緊張，那麼他們的處境就會更加岌岌可危。

The thing about doom spending that is dangerous is that people should be saving now instead of spending now.

厄運消費的危險之處在於，人們應該現在就儲蓄，而不是現在就消費。

If you build up that financial cushion, it puts you in a much more protected place given the future uncertainty.

如果你積累了資金緩衝，那麼在未來不確定的情況下，你就會處於一個更有保障的位置。

So no matter what happens, if you have that safety net, you're better off than if you buy a bunch of stuff now and don't necessarily need it or want it or use it later on.

是以，無論發生什麼情況，如果你有這個安全網，你就會比現在買一大堆東西，但以後不一定需要、不一定想要、也不一定用得上的情況要好得多。

We know that we can increase our individual happiness not when we spend on material things, but when we spend on experiences and when we spend on experiences with others, because that goes into our everlasting memory bank.

我們知道，不是在物質上花錢，而是在體驗上花錢，在與他人的共同體驗上花錢，我們就能增加個人的幸福感，因為這會進入我們永恆的記憶庫。

If you are going to engage in this behavior because you're just like, I just need to feel good in this moment.

如果你會做出這種行為，只是因為你想，我只需要在這一刻感覺良好。

Well, then let's try to maximize that feeling for the long term instead of buying some frivolous material purchase that you're going to forget about in the future.

那麼，讓我們試著最大限度地長期保持這種感覺，而不是購買一些將來會忘記的輕浮的物質財富。