States.

各州。

25% tariffs that the president announced on imported cars as well as parts starting next week.

總統宣佈從下週起對進口汽車及零部件徵收 25% 的關稅。

For some automotive industry economists, the unthinkable has happened.

對於一些汽車行業的經濟學家來說，不可思議的事情已經發生。

30 years of free trade across North America virtually wiped out by a single executive order.

北美 30 年的自由貿易幾乎毀於一項行政命令。

Of course, I don't think anyone could have foreseen this happening.

當然，我想誰也無法預料會發生這樣的事情。

There are all kinds of unintended consequences that will fall into place.

各種意想不到的後果都會發生。

One executive in the industry texted me earlier and he said, this is going to drive the auto industry into a recession.

一位業內高管早些時候給我發簡訊說，這將使汽車行業陷入衰退。

While there are a lot of possibilities and much is unknown, one thing's for sure.

雖然可能性很多，未知數也很多，但有一點是肯定的。

Cars are about to get more expensive in the U.S.

在美國，汽車將變得更加昂貴。

Some may even be pulled from the market entirely.

有些甚至會完全退出市場。

If we see prices going up as a result of costs going up either on vehicles or parts, that means that the consumer is going to have a harder time affording these vehicles.

如果我們看到車輛或零部件成本上升導致價格上漲，這意味著消費者將更難負擔得起這些車輛。

And we estimate you could see a two and a half to over three million unit hit.

我們估計，該產品的銷量將達到 250 萬至 300 多萬臺。

Now we have to invest in new plants.

現在，我們必須投資新建工廠。

We have to invest in new assembly lines.

我們必須投資新的裝配線。

We have to find new suppliers.

我們必須找到新的供應商。

This is going to drive some small suppliers out of business.

這將導致一些小供應商倒閉。

This is going to cost more to build vehicles.

這將增加製造車輛的成本。

This is going to eliminate entire segments of vehicles from the pipeline.

這將使整個車輛段從管道中消失。

All of that will likely take years to execute.

所有這些都可能需要數年時間才能完成。

Analysts say the U.S. can't even build really cheap cars domestically.

分析人士稱，美國甚至無法在國內製造真正的廉價汽車。

While a lot of automakers, foreign and domestic, have factories in the U.S., almost half of all vehicles are imported from other countries, Canada, Mexico and countries across Europe and Asia.

雖然許多國內外汽車製造商都在美國設有工廠，但幾乎一半的汽車都是從其他國家、加拿大、墨西哥以及歐洲和亞洲各國進口的。

Not everyone is going to be affected the same.

並不是每個人都會受到同樣的影響。

Ford and Stellantis, for example, build 74 to 80 percent of their U.S. market vehicles at home.

例如，福特和斯泰倫特公司在美國市場上生產的汽車有 74% 至 80%是在本土製造的。

GM, less than half.

通用汽車，不到一半。

But every car has at least some of its parts or materials made or procured outside the

但每輛汽車至少有部分零部件或材料是在國外製造或採購的。

U.S.

美國

And even companies less affected are likely to charge more.

即使是受影響較小的公司也有可能提高收費。

The United States loses all the things that Canada and Mexico bring to the table.

美國失去了加拿大和墨西哥帶來的所有東西。

Canada has a great wealth of natural resources and Mexico offers great workers and lower cost.

加拿大擁有豐富的自然資源，而墨西哥擁有優秀的工人和較低的成本。

We're able to compete with the EU and better compete with China.

我們能夠與歐盟競爭，也能更好地與中國競爭。

When you consolidate it to just the U.S., our volume isn't there.

如果將其合併到美國，我們的銷量就不在那裡了。

Of course, the news comes at a time when average transaction prices are near record highs.

當然，這一消息是在平均交易價格接近歷史最高點的時候發佈的。

And for those that already own a car, they're falling behind on car loan payments.

而對於那些已經擁有汽車的人來說，他們正在拖欠汽車貸款。

In fact, 6.6 percent of subprime borrowers were at least 60 days past due on their loans as of January 2025, the highest ever.

事實上，截至 2025 年 1 月，6.6% 的次級貸款人的貸款逾期至少 60 天，創下歷史最高紀錄。

Companies are currently having trouble paying for the cars they already have.

目前，公司在支付已有汽車的費用方面遇到困難。

Add $5,000 to the average vehicle price and we're going to see more defaults on car loans than we already are seeing.

在平均車價的基礎上再增加 5000 美元，我們將會看到比現在更多的汽車貸款違約現象。

Experts say prices will rise on average about 15 to 20 percent for cars that are either assembled outside the U.S. or contain parts from other countries.

專家稱，在美國境外組裝或含有其他國家零部件的汽車，價格平均將上漲 15% 至 20%。

That works out to about a $6,000 price increase, again, on average.

這樣算下來，平均價格也上漲了約 6000 美元。

It will hit just over half of the 50 best-selling cars in the U.S. and about half of cheaper models from $40,000 on down.

在美國最暢銷的 50 款汽車中，將有一半以上的汽車和大約一半的 4 萬美元以下的廉價車型受到影響。

Prices on cars that aren't directly affected by the tariffs are still expected to rise at least 5 percent, according to Cox Automotive.

據考克斯汽車公司稱，未受關稅直接影響的汽車價格預計仍將上漲至少 5%。

The average transaction price, meaning the average price actually paid for a car in the

平均交易價格是指在以下時間段內實際支付的汽車平均價格

U.S., was just shy of $50,000 in February.

今年 2 月，美國的 "颶風 "造成的經濟損失還不到 50,000 美元。

But once you eliminate the low end of the market, simple math throws that average way out and we're going to quickly see that average price crest $50,000 and go way beyond that.

但是，一旦剔除了低端市場，簡單的數學計算就會把平均價格拋出很遠，我們很快就會看到平均價格達到 5 萬美元，甚至更高。

What that means is that all of the cheapest new cars in the U.S. are now at risk of being wiped out.

這意味著，美國所有最便宜的新車現在都面臨著被淘汰的風險。

That's because just about all of them are made in either Mexico or South Korea.

這是因為幾乎所有這些產品都是在墨西哥或韓國製造的。

This includes the Chevrolet Trax and Chevy Trailblazer, the Nissan Sentra and Nissan

其中包括雪佛蘭 Trax 和雪佛蘭 Trailblazer、日產 Sentra 和日產 Sentra、日產 Sentra 和日產 Sentra、日產 Sentra 和日產 Sentra、日產 Sentra 和日產 Sentra。

Kicks, the Buick Invista and the Buick Encore GX.

Kicks、別克 Invista 和別克 Encore GX。

It also includes models from Ford, such as the Bronco Sport and Maverick.

它還包括福特的車型，如 Bronco Sport 和 Maverick。

When you build a Nissan Sentra in Mexico, you build that for the Mexican market, you build that for the Brazilian market, you build that for the American market.

當你在墨西哥生產日產 Sentra 時，你為墨西哥市場生產，為巴西市場生產，也為美國市場生產。

And so that combined volume gets you to a level where the economies of scale make it make sense to build so many vehicles and sell them in the United States at $25,000.

是以，規模經濟使生產如此多的汽車並以 25,000 美元的價格在美國銷售成為可能。

If you build them in the United States with a tariff, Brazil is not going to accept those vehicles that are that expensive.

如果你在美國製造這些車輛並徵收關稅，巴西是不會接受這些價格如此昂貴的車輛的。

Mexico is not going to want them back.

墨西哥不會要他們回去的。

Think about it like this.

你可以這樣想

General Motors is the largest U.S.-based automaker by volume, but many of its models are made in other countries, including its cheapest, the Chevrolet Trax and Chevy Trailblazer.

通用汽車是美國銷量最大的汽車製造商，但其許多車型都是在其他國家生產的，包括最便宜的雪佛蘭 Trax 和雪佛蘭開拓者。

Both are shipped from Korea, so both will get slapped with a 25% tariff.

兩者都從韓國發貨，是以都將被徵收 25% 的關稅。

That basically leaves GM with one choice.

這樣一來，通用汽車基本上只有一個選擇。

How much, if any, of the tariff do they absorb?

它們吸收了多少關稅？

The further you raise prices, the more you risk a drop in demand.

價格提得越高，需求下降的風險就越大。

If a car costing $25,000 goes up to $30,000, which is totally possible, it may not be affordable for the segment of the population that are looking in that price range or worth the price.

如果一輛售價 2.5 萬美元的汽車漲到 3 萬美元（這是完全有可能的），那麼對於那些正在尋找這一價格區間汽車的人群來說，他們可能負擔不起，也不值這個價。

So then, of course, volume drops.

是以，銷量當然會下降。

They have to make some really tough decisions on how do they make up that difference in volume.

他們必須做出一些非常艱難的決定，如何彌補數量上的差距。

Then GM has to go back and say, do we have to build this vehicle at all?

然後，通用汽車必須回頭說，我們到底有沒有必要製造這種汽車？

If they eliminate that vehicle, then the consumer now has no choice than to buy a used vehicle.

如果他們取消了這種車輛，那麼消費者現在就別無選擇，只能購買二手車。

That can only mean that used vehicle prices are going to rise, too.

這隻能意味著二手車價格也會上漲。

We saw how production shutdowns and part shortages caused the same thing during the pandemic.

我們看到，在大流行病期間，停產和零部件短缺也造成了同樣的後果。

In fact, while used cars are cheaper than they were in the worst of the COVID years, they are still way above 2019 prices.

事實上，雖然二手車比 COVID 最嚴重時期便宜，但仍遠高於 2019 年的價格。

When we went through COVID, we know that we lost about 10% of the new vehicle market.

當我們通過 COVID 時，我們知道我們失去了約 10% 的新車市場。

We gained some in the higher income quintiles, people who could pay more, so we gained buyers in the higher cost vehicles, but we lost a solid portion of consumers that were able to buy in the new car market.

在收入較高的五分之一人口中，我們獲得了一些人的青睞，他們可以支付更多的錢，是以我們獲得了高價車的買家，但我們失去了一大部分有能力在新車市場購買的消費者。

It's not just cheaper cars, though.

不過，這不僅僅是汽車價格便宜的問題。

It's also some of the most popular, like the Toyota RAV4 and Honda CR-V.

這也是一些最受歡迎的車型，如豐田 RAV4 和本田 CR-V。

You know, you've got a lot of unhappy customers out there who are Honda through and through loyalists who aren't going to be able to potentially buy their vehicle if they need one right now.

要知道，你有很多不滿意的客戶，他們都是本田的忠實擁躉，如果他們現在需要一輛車，他們不可能買到。

CR-V is actually one of the five models most affected when you multiply the number of cars sold by the cost of the tariff on each car.

如果用汽車銷量乘以每輛車的關稅成本，CR-V 實際上是受影響最大的五款車型之一。

Others include the Chevy Trax I mentioned earlier, and the Honda HR-V, the Chevy Equinox, and the Subaru Forester.

其他車型包括我前面提到的雪佛蘭 Trax、本田 HR-V、雪佛蘭 Equinox 和斯巴魯 Forester。

Each sell well over 100,000 units a year in the United States alone.

僅在美國，每款汽車的年銷量就遠遠超過 10 萬輛。

They think that if you put a 25% tariff on all vehicles, we can bring a lot of manufacturing back here to the United States, and that may be possible, but in the interim, it's going to create a lot of pressure.

他們認為，如果對所有汽車徵收 25% 的關稅，我們就能把大量製造業帶回美國，這也許是可能的，但在此期間，這會造成很大的壓力。

So why can't we just build factories here?

那麼，為什麼我們不能在這裡建廠呢？

Well, supposedly, that's the purpose of all of this.

據說，這就是這一切的目的。

But building a factory in the U.S. takes at least two or three years and costs at least a billion dollars, realistically closer to two.

但在美國建廠至少需要兩三年時間，成本至少 10 億美元，實際成本接近 20 億美元。

Just retooling an assembly line, one assembly line, costs about a half a billion dollars in several months.

僅僅重新裝備一條裝配線，一條裝配線，就需要在幾個月內花費大約 5 億美元。

This does not happen with just a flip of a light switch.

這不是輕輕一按電燈開關就能實現的。

Even if there's excess capacity in certain factories, it will still take a matter of time for them to potentially retool if it's not the same exact vehicle they'd be running down that production line, and things like that, and gathering back the workforce and so forth.

即使某些工廠產能過剩，但如果生產線上生產的不是同一款車，他們仍需要一段時間來重新裝備，以及重新召集勞動力等等。

So it's a little bit of, it's a very complex decision that companies would need to make on that capital expenditure, especially if it's being made around things that are policy oriented, which of course we know can be fickle every four years.

是以，公司需要對資本支出做出非常複雜的決定，尤其是如果資本支出是圍繞政策導向做出的，當然，我們知道政策每四年就會變化一次。