The US economy continues to show no signs of stopping housing prices hit all time highs.

美國經濟依然沒有止步的跡象，房價創下歷史新高。

The S&P 500 hits at all time high, and the combined net worth of all Americans crossed $150 trillion.

標準普爾 500 指數創下歷史新高，所有美國人的淨資產總和超過 150 萬億美元。

But while the US has been booming for decades, one group has been left behind young people, older Americans saw their share of wealth increased by 12% since 1989.

但是，儘管美國幾十年來一直在蓬勃發展，有一個群體卻被年輕人甩在了後面，美國老年人的財富份額自 1989 年以來增加了 12%。

While those under 40 saw a decline of nearly 50%.

而 40 歲以下的人則下降了近 50%。

And now for the first time in 200 years, 30 year olds are poorer than their parents, the social contract that is now no longer in place.

現在，30 歲的年輕人比他們的父母更窮，這是 200 年來第一次，社會契約現在已不復存在。

And for the first time in the US history, a 30 year old is no longer doing as well as their his or her parents were what went wrong.

這也是美國曆史上第一次，30 歲的年輕人不再像他們的父母一樣過得那麼好。

This is America, the broken generation, the United States, the land of opportunity.

這就是美國，破碎的一代，美國，充滿機遇的國度。

From the beginning, America was different.

從一開始，美國就與眾不同。

Unlike the rest of the world, it didn't matter who you were or where you came from.

與世界其他地方不同的是，你是誰，來自哪裡並不重要。

Everyone had a shot at the American dream.

每個人都有機會實現美國夢。

However, the reality on the ground today is bleak, and the dream is more like a nightmare.

然而，今天當地的現實是暗淡的，夢想更像是一場噩夢。

In 1985, the average home was four and a half times the median household income.

1985 年，平均住房面積是家庭收入中位數的四倍半。

Today, this number has ballooned by 50% to seven times.

如今，這個數字已經膨脹了 50%，達到了 7 倍。

In a matter of 40 years, life has become two times as expensive.

在短短的 40 年間，生活成本就增加了兩倍。

One of the main drivers for this affordability crisis is underdevelopment.

造成這種負擔能力危機的主要原因之一是發展不足。

It's called NIMBY, not in my backyard.

這就是所謂的 NIMBY，不在我家後院。

City planners say the attitude is spreading and causing widespread social disruption.

城市規劃者說，這種態度正在蔓延，造成了廣泛的社會混亂。

Across many major US cities, landowners have fought against new developments to preserve their quality of life and to ensure their property values stay high.

在美國許多大城市，土地所有者一直在反對新的開發項目，以維護他們的生活品質，確保他們的財產價值保持高位。

Specifically, housing starts as a proportion of the US population have dropped by 30% compared to before 2000.

具體來說，與 2000 年之前相比，住房開工量佔美國人口的比例下降了 30%。

This means that as the population continues to grow, the number of homes per person is declining, driving up real estate prices.

這意味著，隨著人口的不斷增長，人均住房數量卻在減少，從而推高了房地產價格。

This reduced housing development has compounded over the years and has created a major shortage of housing.

多年來，住房開發量減少的情況愈演愈烈，造成住房嚴重短缺。

Take a look at San Francisco.

看看舊金山吧。

In 2024, the city only approved 16 housing permits, and seven of those were for single family homes.

2024 年，該市僅準許了 16 項住房許可，其中 7 項為獨棟住宅。

This is a city of a million people, and the surrounding metro area has 7 million people, and all they approved was 16 housing permits.

這是一個擁有一百萬人口的城市，而周邊的都會區有七百萬人口，他們只准許了 16 項住房許可。

At the same time, the share of homes owned by older generations has grown significantly compared to the past.

同時，與過去相比，老一代人擁有的住房比例也大幅增加。

The proportion of homes owned by Americans over 55 has increased by 23%.

55 歲以上美國人擁有住房的比例增加了 23%。

While homeownership among those under 55 fell 19%.

而 55 歲以下人群的住房擁有率下降了 19%。

Older generations have gobbled up real estate like candy, and they've created a system that benefits them meaningfully.

老一代人像吞糖果一樣吞食房地產，他們創造了一個讓他們切實受益的系統。

Lower taxes on capital gains, the ability to forego taxes through a 1031 exchange, and much, much more.

降低資本收益稅，通過 1031 交換免稅，等等。

These homeowners are staying in their homes longer than ever. 54% of them own their homes outright.

這些房主在家中居住的時間比以往任何時候都長。其中 54% 的人完全擁有自己的住房。

The rest have locked in historically low interest rates.

其餘的都鎖定了歷史最低利率。

And to make matters worse, key locks allow these homeowners to tap into their home equity without having to sell.

更糟糕的是，鑰匙鎖讓這些房主無需出售就能動用房屋資產。

The result, they have no incentive to sell.

結果，他們沒有出售的動力。

This in addition to low development has kept the housing market artificially tight.

再加上低開發率，住房市場一直處於人為緊縮狀態。

Empty nesters are living in large homes that are mostly unused, while young people struggle to get by.

空巢老人住在大多閒置的大房子裡，而年輕人卻在苦苦掙扎。

Concurrently, a new player has entered the housing market, private equity.

與此同時，一個新的參與者--私募股權基金也進入了住房市場。

When I was in business school, there was nothing sexier in this entire world than private equity.

在我讀商學院的時候，整個世界沒有比私募股權投資更性感的了。

It's exactly where you went if you wanted to one day own an island.

如果你想有朝一日擁有一座島嶼，這裡正是你要去的地方。

And one of my classmates just bought an island.

我的一個同學剛買了一個小島。

Private equity currently owns 240,000 single family homes in the United States.

私募基金目前在美國擁有 24 萬套獨棟住宅。

Now, this is only 5% of the overall single family home rental market, which is small, but the ownership is concentrated in the Sunbelt.

現在，這隻佔整個獨戶住宅租賃市場的 5%，雖然規模不大，但所有權主要集中在陽光地帶。

And this doesn't include ownership in apartments, which have a much, much higher corporate and private equity ownership rate.

這還不包括公寓的所有權，因為企業和私人股本的所有權比例要高得多。

Analysts have shown that select Sunbelt markets have over 50% ownership by private investment firms.

分析顯示，部分陽光地帶市場的私人投資公司持股比例超過 50%。

By concentrating their ownership in key markets, they're able to drive down property management and service costs while having an outsized role in dictating market rents.

通過將所有權集中在主要市場，他們能夠降低物業管理和服務成本，同時在決定市場租金方面發揮更大的作用。

For example, between 2020 and 2023, rents for a two bedroom detached home rose by about 44% in Tampa, 43% in Phoenix and 35% in Atlanta.

例如，2020 年至 2023 年間，坦帕市兩居室獨立住宅的租金上漲了約 44%，鳳凰城上漲了 43%，亞特蘭大上漲了 35%。

Compare this to the national average of 24%.

而全國平均水平為 24%。

The average homebuyer can't compete against private equity.

普通購房者無法與私人股本競爭。

These firms are able to buy large swaths of home in one go and make unconditional offers with cash.

這些公司能夠一次性購買大片房屋，並以現金無條件出價。

Furthermore, unlike mom and pop landlords, corporate landlords are highly sophisticated and will do everything to generate additional yield, even breaking the law.

此外，與普通房東不同，公司房東非常狡猾，他們會想盡一切辦法提高收益，甚至不惜觸犯法律。

Recently, the Attorney General of Washington DC filed a case against 14 corporate landlords for price fixing through the analytics company, RealPage.

最近，華盛頓特區總檢察長對 14 家公司房東通過分析公司 RealPage 操縱價格的行為提起訴訟。

RealPage helped landlords optimize rents across four and a half million units in the United States.

RealPage 幫助業主優化了美國四百五十萬個組織、部門的租金。

And here's the shocker, RealPage is owned by private equity firm, Tama Bravo.

令人震驚的是，RealPage 由私募股權公司 Tama Bravo 擁有。

By taking data from millions of units, RealPage is able to optimize pricing.

通過採集數百萬個組織、部門的數據，RealPage 能夠優化定價。

And as you can see, the value of data to these corporations is in the billions.

如您所見，數據對這些公司的價值高達數十億美元。

When researching these videos, we review and sign up for multiple news sources.

在研究這些視頻時，我們會查看並註冊多個新聞來源。

Because of this, we are spanned with emails and promotions from heard of.

正因為如此，我們收到的電子郵件和促銷活動不計其數。

That's why we're proud to partner with today's video sponsor incognito offer you 60% off a year long subscription.

是以，我們很榮幸能與今天的視頻贊助商 incognito 合作，為您提供 6 折的全年訂閱優惠。

All you need to do is use the code two and 20.

您只需使用代碼 2 和 20。

Thousands of data brokers collect and sell your personal data without your knowledge. incognito protects your privacy by contacting these brokers and ensuring that your information is deleted.

數以千計的數據經紀人在你不知情的情況下收集並出售你的個人數據。incognito通過與這些經紀人聯繫，確保刪除你的資訊，從而保護你的隱私。

Take a look at my dashboard. incognito has removed my data from 21 sources so far with another 15 progress.

到目前為止，incognito 已從 21 個數據源刪除了我的數據，還有 15 個數據源正在刪除中。

My favorite part.

我最喜歡的部分

If I did this myself, it would have taken me nearly 16 hours.

如果我自己做，可能要花上近 16 個小時。

Visit incognito.com backslash two and 20 and use the code two and 20 to get 60% off your annual plan.

訪問 incognito.com backslash two and 20，使用代碼 two and 20，即可享受年度計劃六折優惠。

Click the link below to take your personal data off the market or don't and keep getting spammed.

點擊下面的鏈接，將您的個人數據從市場上刪除，否則就不要繼續收到垃圾郵件。

And now back to the video.

現在回到視頻。

The endgame for corporate ownership of homes is very obvious to own as many homes as humanly possible, and to create forever renters out of would be homebuyers.

企業擁有房屋所有權的最終目的非常明顯，那就是儘可能多地擁有房屋，並從未來的購房者中創造出永遠的租房者。

And it seems like they're well on their way of achieving their goal.

而且，他們似乎正在實現自己的目標。

It's projected that private equity will own 40% of us single family home rentals by 2030, eight times their current ownership.

據預測，到 2030 年，私人股本將擁有我們 40% 的獨戶住宅租賃，是目前所有權的八倍。

This will likely increase the rent paid by renters, making it more challenging for them to save up and buy a home while at the same time reducing the housing stock available to be bought driving up prices further.

這可能會增加租房者支付的租金，使他們更難存錢買房，同時也會減少可購買的住房存量，進一步推高房價。

Historically, housing has been a big wealth store.

從歷史上看，住房一直是一個巨大的財富儲存庫。

But with limited supply created by older generations and increasing competition for private equity, wealth is declining among younger generations.

但是，由於老一代人創造的供應有限，加上私募股權的競爭日益激烈，年輕一代人的財富正在減少。

Since 1989, wealth held by those under 40 has declined by nearly 50%.

自 1989 年以來，40 歲以下人群的財富減少了近 50%。

While wealth held by boomers has increased.

雖然 "潮一代 "所擁有的財富有所增加。

There are a few common explanations older generations get for this.

老一輩人對此有幾種常見的解釋。

The first is that young people don't work hard enough, or they're And this is somewhat true.

第一種說法是，年輕人不夠努力，或者說他們不夠努力，這在某種程度上是對的。

In 1985, the average workweek was 35 hours.

1985 年，平均每週工作 35 小時。

Today, it's around 34 hours, making us 3% lazier.

今天，大約是 34 個小時，讓我們懶惰了 3%。

Now you don't need a PhD to see that this is not the issue.

現在，你不需要博士學位也能看出問題不在這裡。

The second point raised is that young people spend money unnecessarily.

第二點是年輕人花冤枉錢。

And although young people spend more money on experiences and technology, they actually spend less on physical goods, balancing out most increases in spending.

雖然年輕人在體驗和技術上的花費更多，但實際上他們在實物商品上的花費卻更少，從而平衡了大部分支出的增長。

The primary contributor to higher spending with young people is the increased relative value of housing, healthcare and education.

年輕人支出增加的主要原因是住房、醫療保健和教育的相對價值增加。

In fact, if you remove housing from the equation, younger generations spend less on average.

事實上，如果把住房問題排除在外，年輕一代的平均花費會更少。

And contrary to popular belief, Gen Z and millennials are saving more of their earnings than older generations.

與人們的普遍看法相反，Z 世代和千禧一代比上一代人儲蓄了更多的收入。

Lastly, people will claim that young people are unskilled and need more education.

最後，人們會說年輕人沒有技能，需要更多的教育。

But this is absolutely unfair.

但這絕對不公平。

Every subsequent generation has become more educated than the last.

後來的每一代人都比上一代人受過更多的教育。

And Gen Z will continue this trend and become even more educated than millennials.

Z 世代將延續這一趨勢，變得比千禧一代更有教養。

This though, is expected because society has pushed down the narrative that college is necessary to progress in life.

不過，這也是意料之中的事，因為社會已經灌輸了這樣的觀念：上大學是人生進步的必要條件。

This would be fine and dandy if there was a value to education.

如果教育有其價值，這樣做也未嘗不可。

But sadly, college is more expensive and less beneficial than ever.

但令人遺憾的是，大學比以往任何時候都更昂貴，也更無益。

In 1980, the cost of attending a four year college program when adjusted for inflation was $10,000.

1980 年，根據通貨膨脹率調整後的四年制大學學費為 10,000 美元。

Today, it's nearly $29,000.

如今，它已接近 29 000 美元。

That's a 3x increase.

增加了 3 倍。

But why?

但為什麼呢？

One simple word, bloat.

一個簡單的詞，臃腫。

From 1976 to 2018, US college enrollment grew by 78%.

從 1976 年到 2018 年，美國大學入學率增長了 78%。

But at the same time, full time faculty grew by 92%.

但與此同時，全職教師卻增長了 92%。

Okay, that doesn't seem too bad.

好吧，看起來還不算太糟。

But administration?

但行政管理呢？

Administration grew by 164%.

行政管理增長了 164%。

And other non-administrative professionals, 452%.

其他非行政專業人員為 452%。

That means that the professional staff at universities has far outpaced the growth of students.

這意味著大學專業人員的增長速度遠遠超過了學生的增長速度。

Colleges are spending more and more money on things other than education, more admin staff, more consultants, more fancy buildings, more of anything but To make matters worse, even if you get an education, it doesn't really solve anything.

高校在教育以外的事情上花的錢越來越多，更多的行政人員、更多的顧問、更華麗的建築、更多的東西，但更糟的是，即使你接受了教育，也不能真正解決任何問題。

In 1980, households with a four year college education earned $100,000 per year.

1980 年，受過四年制大學教育的家庭年收入為 10 萬美元。

Today, they earn $118,000 per year.

如今，他們的年收入為 118,000 美元。

This is a real increase of 18%, which seems good on the surface.

實際增長了 18%，表面上看起來不錯。

However, during the same period of time, the cost of a four year education has increased from $40,000 to $115,000.

然而，在同一時期，四年制教育的費用卻從 40,000 美元增加到了 115,000 美元。

A real increase of 188%.

實際增長 188%。

So here's the marketing pitch for college.

這就是大學的營銷策略。

You can increase your earnings by 18% by spending 190% more than previous.

比以前多花 190%，就能增加 18% 的收入。

Unlike in the past, call it is no longer a path to economic prosperity.

與過去不同的是，打電話不再是經濟繁榮之路。

Instead, young people are forced into a perpetual education and credential machine.

取而代之的是，年輕人被迫進入一個永無止境的教育和文憑機器。

What once required a bachelor's degree and entry level experience now requires a master's degree and 300 years of experience.

過去需要學士學位和初級經驗，現在則需要碩士學位和 300 年的經驗。

The cherry on top, it will cost you everything.

最重要的是，它會讓你傾家蕩產。

Given how expensive education is, most students have to take out large student loans.

由於教育費用昂貴，大多數學生都需要申請大額助學貸款。

Currently, the total balance of student debt in the United States is $1.7 trillion.

目前，美國學生債務總餘額為 1.7 萬億美元。

This number has grown two times faster than wages over the last 20 years.

在過去 20 年中，這一數字的增長速度是工資增長速度的兩倍。

But this isn't limited to student loans.

但這並不侷限於學生貸款。

With rising living costs and stagnating wages, the only way to make ends meet for young people is accumulating more and more debt.

隨著生活成本的增加和工資的停滯不前，年輕人維持生計的唯一辦法就是積累越來越多的債務。

Since 2013, credit card debt has increased 26% auto debt 14% and mortgage debt 44%.

自 2013 年以來，信用卡債務增加了 26%，汽車債務增加了 14%，抵押貸款債務增加了 44%。

This increase is happening while young people are earning 13% less than they did in 2013.

與此同時，年輕人的收入卻比 2013 年減少了 13%。

But this isn't the only debt that young people need to worry about.

但年輕人需要擔心的債務並不只有這些。

While personal consumer debt has been rising and young people are more indebted than ever, the United States of America has gone on a debt binge unlike anything the world has ever seen.

在個人消費債務不斷攀升、年輕人負債比以往任何時候都多的同時，美國卻掀起了一場前所未有的債務狂潮。

Fiscal responsibility has become a forgotten concept in the United States.

在美國，財政責任已成為一個被遺忘的概念。

Since the removal of the gold standard, politicians have discovered that there is no consequence to printing endless amounts of money.

自取消金本位制以來，政客們發現，無休止地印製鈔票不會有任何後果。

And over the last 60 years, government debt has grown three times faster than GDP, and now sits at $35 trillion versus GDP of $27 trillion.

在過去的 60 年裡，政府債務的增長速度是 GDP 增長速度的三倍，目前已達到 35 萬億美元，而 GDP 為 27 萬億美元。

The only time debt was this high in US history was World War Two, the bloodiest, most destructive conflict in human history.

美國曆史上唯一一次負債如此之高的時期是第二次世界大戰，那是人類歷史上最血腥、最具破壞性的衝突。

This debt is obviously not free and has associated interest costs.

這筆債務顯然不是無償的，需要支付相關的利息費用。

Currently, the US is spending 16% of their annual budget on interest or $624 billion.

目前，美國的利息支出佔其年度預算的 16%，即 6 240 億美元。

That's enough money to pay off all student debt in three years.

這筆錢足夠在三年內還清所有學生債務。

Sadly, there's literally no mechanism to stop the government from spending money it does not have.

可悲的是，根本沒有任何機制可以阻止政府花它沒有的錢。

Elected officials are not acquired to balance budgets.

民選官員不是為了平衡預算而產生的。

They cannot be fired for overspending.

他們不能因為超支而被解僱。

They aren't measured on returns on invested capital.

它們不是以投資資本的回報來衡量的。

All they need to do is spend the money and campaign for votes.

他們需要做的就是花錢和競選拉選票。

Now $35 trillion sounds like a lot of money, and it is.

現在，35 萬億美元聽起來像是一大筆錢，的確如此。

But what if I told you that the real debt number is much, much higher?

但如果我告訴你，真正的債務數字要高出很多很多呢？

Let me break it down.

讓我來分析一下。

National debt is $34.6 trillion.

國債為 34.6 萬億美元。

State level debt adds $1.9 trillion to the mix.

州一級的債務增加了 1.9 萬億美元。

Unfunded OPEB liabilities are another $1 trillion.

無準備金的 OPEB 負債還有 1 萬億美元。

Unfunded pension liabilities, $7 trillion.

無準備金的養老金負債，7 萬億美元。

And the biggest, baddest of them all, Social Security and Medicare contribute to a whopping $80 trillion of additional liabilities.

其中最大、最糟糕的是，社會保障和醫療保險造成了高達 80 萬億美元的額外負債。

Therefore, the total actual debt held by the United States government stands at a staggering $123,875,533,000,000.

是以，美國政府實際持有的債務總額達到了驚人的 123,875,533,000,000 美元。

That is five times greater than the US GDP, or put another way, $370,000 per American.

這個數字是美國國內生產總值的五倍，換句話說，每個美國人的國內生產總值是 37 萬美元。

But in reality, if you're over 50, you probably won't have to worry about this debt.

但實際上，如果您已年過 50，可能就不用擔心這筆債務了。

Most of this debt won't impact you.

大部分債務不會對您造成影響。

The lives of older generations will be fine.

老一代人的生活會很好。

Instead, this spending will benefit old people and levy a tax on the future of young people.

相反，這些開支將使老年人受益，並對年輕人的未來徵稅。

So if we exclude those over 50, the tax amounts to over $600,000 a person.

是以，如果我們將 50 歲以上的人排除在外，那麼每人的稅額將超過 60 萬美元。

To make matters worse, the high cost of living is leading young people to have fewer children.

更糟糕的是，高昂的生活費用導致年輕人減少生育。

Without a sharp increase in immigration, this will likely reduce production and worsen the debt burden.

如果不大幅增加移民，這很可能會降低生產，加重債務負擔。

But why and how would the government spend so much money knowing it's nearly impossible to ever pay it back?

但是，在明知幾乎不可能還錢的情況下，政府為什麼要花這麼多錢？

Do they not care about young people and their future?

難道他們不關心年輕人和他們的未來嗎？

The short answer, they don't.

簡而言之，他們不知道。

The founding fathers of the United States are often revered as godlike figures.

美國的開國元勳往往被尊為神一般的人物。

They are thought of as distinguished and experienced individuals who sought out to create the framework for the greatest nation the world has ever seen.

他們被認為是傑出的、經驗豐富的人士，他們尋求創建世界上有史以來最偉大國家的框架。

Surely, these men must have been wise and old.

當然，這些人一定是睿智而年長的。

Let's see.

讓我們看看

James Monroe, 18.

詹姆斯-門羅，18 歲

Aaron Burr, 20.

亞倫-伯爾，20 歲

Alexander Hamilton, 21.

亞歷山大-漢密爾頓，21 歲。

James Madison, 25.

詹姆斯-麥迪遜，25 歲。

Thomas Jefferson, 33.

托馬斯-傑斐遜，33 歲。

John Adams, 40.

約翰-亞當斯，40 歲。

And George Washington, a distinguished, 44.

喬治-華盛頓，一位傑出的人，44 歲。

If you include everyone who signed the Declaration of Independence, the average age was 44.

如果把簽署《獨立宣言》的所有人都算在內，平均年齡為 44 歲。

Now, let's take a look at Congress today.

現在，讓我們來看看今天的國會。

The average age?

平均年齡？

58.

58.

What about the Senate?

參議院呢？

64.

64.

But what's the median age in the United States?

但美國的中位年齡是多少？

38.

38.

How can people nearly twice the age of the average American truly understand the challenges they face?

年齡幾乎是普通美國人兩倍的人如何才能真正理解他們所面臨的挑戰？

They can't.

他們不能。

How are elected officials near the end of their life supposed to behave fiscally responsible when their decisions won't burden them?

當民選官員的決定不會給他們帶來負擔時，他們在生命即將結束時又該如何對財政負責呢？

They won't.

他們不會的。

Mitch McConnell took office in 1985 and is currently 82 years old.

米奇-麥康奈爾於 1985 年就職，現年 82 歲。

He can barely communicate, yet he decides your future.

他幾乎無法溝通，卻決定著你的未來。