Vote Leave supporters celebrated on the streets chanting, take back control.

投票離開的支持者在街頭慶祝，高呼 "奪回控制權"。

However, today only 33% of British citizens think Brexit was a good idea.

然而，如今只有 33% 的英國公民認為英國脫歐是個好主意。

To date, Brexit is estimated to have cost the United Kingdom 160 billion pounds of economic And as citizens catch up with the harsh realities of decoupling from the EU, many Brexit cheerleaders are changing their tune.

迄今為止，英國脫歐估計已造成 1600 億英鎊的經濟損失，而隨著英國公民逐漸認識到與歐盟脫鉤的嚴峻現實，許多脫歐啦啦隊也開始改弦易轍。

What once was seen as a beacon of hope has now turned into an economic nightmare.

這個曾經被視為希望燈塔的地方，如今變成了經濟噩夢。

So we ask the question, was Brexit worth it?

是以，我們要問，英國脫歐值得嗎？

To answer this question, we will explore the impact of Brexit across 1.

為了回答這個問題，我們將探討英國脫歐對 1.

Trade, 2.

貿易，2。

Foreign Investment, and 3.

外國投資，以及 3.

Immigration.

移民。

At the end, we will decide whether Brexit was worth it.

最後，我們將決定英國脫歐是否值得。

When it comes to trade, the EU offers members material trade benefits.

在貿易方面，歐盟為成員國提供了實質性的貿易優惠。

For one, there are no duties or tariffs on goods and services moving between member nations.

首先，成員國之間的貨物和服務流動沒有關稅。

But possibly more important, there is no red tape that makes trade difficult.

但可能更重要的是，這裡沒有使貿易變得困難的繁文縟節。

The post-Brexit transition period ended on December 31, 2020, with the signing of the TCA.

隨著《三國協議》的簽署，英國脫歐後的過渡期於 2020 年 12 月 31 日結束。

Boris Johnson claimed that this would establish better trade deals with the EU and open Britain for increased trade with the rest of the world.

鮑里斯-約翰遜（Boris Johnson）聲稱，這將與歐盟達成更好的貿易協議，併為英國增加與世界其他國家的貿易敞開大門。

But was that true?

但這是真的嗎？

Well, not exactly.

也不盡然。

You see, since leaving the EU, the UK's export volumes have materially lagged all advanced economies.

要知道，自脫離歐盟以來，英國的出口量在很大程度上落後於所有發達經濟體。

And trade intensity lags all other G7 countries.

而貿易強度則落後於所有其他 G7 國家。

But what exactly is causing this?

但究竟是什麼造成了這種情況？

Let's first look at red tape.

我們先來看看繁文縟節。

Since Brexit, 80% of British registered businesses face difficulties exporting to the EU.

自英國脫歐以來，80% 的英國註冊企業在向歐盟出口時面臨困難。

It got so bad that the British Chamber of Commerce claimed that it was easier to trade with more distant countries than with Europe.

情況變得如此糟糕，以至於英國商會聲稱，與更遙遠的國家進行貿易比與歐洲進行貿易更容易。

Why is this?

為什麼會這樣？

When Britain was under the EU, borders meant nothing.

當英國隸屬於歐盟時，邊界毫無意義。

Businesses could go and come as they pleased.

企業可以隨意進出。

And since regulations were all consistent, paperwork and red tape were non-existent.

而且，由於所有法規都是一致的，是以不存在文書工作和繁文縟節。

But now that there is a hard border between the EU and the UK, red tape has exponentially increased.

但現在歐盟和英國之間有了硬邊界，繁文縟節成倍增加。

Large businesses are able to handle this by setting up branches in the EU.

大型企業可以通過在歐盟設立分支機構來解決這一問題。

But small businesses are faced with the impossibility of understanding and complying with extremely complicated rules and regulations in a variety of different languages.

但是，小企業面臨著不可能理解和遵守各種不同語言的極其複雜的規則和條例。

Similarly, EU countries don't want to deal with the headache and are opting for non-British products to avoid any confusion.

同樣，歐盟國家也不想處理這個令人頭疼的問題，而是選擇非英國產品，以避免任何混淆。

And who can blame them?

這又能怪誰呢？

To make matters worse, the UK has chosen to reinvent the wheel when it comes to standards regulations.

更糟的是，在標準法規方面，英國選擇了重新發明輪子。

For instance, instead of adopting the EU's classification system for chemicals, Britain, in its infinite wisdom, decided to create their own system.

例如，英國沒有采用歐盟的化學品分類系統，而是以其無窮的智慧決定創建自己的系統。

What's the benefit here?

這有什麼好處？

None.

無。

All this has done is created more confusion, more red tape, and required businesses to invest millions of dollars on reclassification.

這隻會造成更多的混亂、更多的繁文縟節，並要求企業投入數百萬美元用於重新分類。

But this isn't just limited to red tape.

但這不僅限於繁文縟節。

Historically, there were no tariffs and duties.

歷史上沒有關稅和關稅。

Now, there are a ton.

現在，有一大堆。

But Brexit supporters would argue that the UK has now established new agreements and trade with other countries around the world.

但英國脫歐的支持者會認為，英國現在已經與世界其他國家建立了新的協議和貿易關係。

They have set up new agreements with Australia, New Zealand, India, Israel, and more.

他們與澳洲、紐西蘭、印度、以色列等國簽訂了新協議。

And by not relying on the EU so much, Britain has opened itself up to more opportunity.

英國不再過分依賴歐盟，從而為自己帶來了更多機會。

Well, not exactly.

也不盡然。

Although trade with non-EU countries has increased, it has not done enough to offset the declines in goods and service trade with the EU.

雖然與非歐盟國家的貿易有所增長，但不足以抵消與歐盟之間貨物和服務貿易的下降。

Over the long term, this might be corrected, but only time will tell.

從長遠來看，這種情況可能會得到糾正，但只有時間才能證明。

And frankly, the UK does not have that much to offer the rest of the world and is a relatively small market outside of financial services.

坦率地說，英國能為世界其他國家提供的東西並不多，除了金融服務之外，英國還是一個相對較小的市場。

So what's the conclusion on economic activity?

那麼，關於經濟活動的結論是什麼？

Brexit is a failure.

英國脫歐是失敗的。

Okay, let's move on to foreign direct investment, otherwise known as FDI.

好了，讓我們來談談外國直接投資，也就是我們常說的外商直接投資。

FDI is important because it raises national productivity, output, and wages.

外國直接投資之所以重要，是因為它提高了國家的生產力、產出和工資。

The UK was uniquely positioned among EU countries in that it had a strong banking system, access to the Eurozone, and most importantly, it spoke English.

在歐盟國家中，英國的地位得天獨厚，因為它擁有強大的銀行系統，可以進入歐元區，最重要的是，它能說英語。

As such, investment into UK businesses was rising rapidly, leading up to the Brexit vote.

是以，在英國脫歐投票之前，對英國企業的投資迅速增加。

But right after the vote, investment dropped dramatically.

但就在投票之後，投資急劇下降。

Businesses were spooked by the uncertainty of Brexit and decided to invest elsewhere.

企業被英國脫歐的不確定性嚇壞了，決定到其他地方投資。

To understand the impact that Brexit had on FDI, we can look at the results of other advanced economies.

要了解英國脫歐對外國直接投資的影響，我們可以看看其他發達經濟體的結果。

Since 2016, the UK has underperformed all G7 economies on business investment growth by a long shot.

自 2016 年以來，英國在商業投資增長方面的表現遠遠落後於所有 G7 經濟體。

Brexit cheerleaders will argue that UK is still number two in absolute terms, only behind would be 12 billion pounds more per year, and that Britain would lead Europe in FDI, and more importantly, lead their arch nemesis, France.

英國脫歐的啦啦隊會辯稱，從絕對數字上看，英國仍然是第二，只是落後於每年多出的 120 億英鎊，而且英國將在外國直接投資方面領跑歐洲，更重要的是，領跑他們的頭號剋星--法國。

Furthermore, all industry segments in Britain have seen a decline in FDI, whereas the EU has seen an increase across all segments.

此外，英國所有行業領域的外國直接投資都有所下降，而歐盟所有行業領域的外國直接投資都有所增長。

Unlike trade, the negative impacts of FDI are slow to accumulate.

與貿易不同，外國直接投資的負面影響累積緩慢。

However, economists estimate that lower FDI has already contributed to 29 billion pounds of lost The reason for declining FDI is very, very simple.

然而，經濟學家估計，外國直接投資的減少已經造成了 290 億英鎊的損失。

The UK has lost its advantage.

英國已經失去了優勢。

It is no longer part of the largest trading bloc in the world, and it doesn't have the most educated or trained workforce.

它不再是世界最大貿易集團的一部分，也沒有受過最好教育和培訓的勞動力。

It doesn't have much in the way of natural resources, and all it really has is a financial center and the English language.

它沒有多少自然資源，真正擁有的只有金融中心和英語。

But that isn't enough anymore, because there are tons of those around the world.

但這已經遠遠不夠了，因為全世界有數不清的這樣的人。

So what's the conclusion on FDI?

那麼，關於外國直接投資的結論是什麼？

Brexit was a bad idea.

英國脫歐是個壞主意。

Lastly, let's take a look at immigration.

最後，讓我們來看看移民問題。

Frankly, this might be the single biggest reason Brexit supporters wanted to leave.

坦率地說，這可能是英國脫歐支持者希望脫歐的最大原因。

They were sick and tired of Britain looking less British.

他們厭倦了英國看起來不那麼英國。

The direct impact of Brexit was to end free movement among EU countries.

英國脫歐的直接影響是結束了歐盟國家之間的自由流動。

Leading up to Brexit, net immigration peaked at 330,000 people per annum.

英國脫歐之前，淨移民人數達到每年 33 萬人的峰值。

This dropped by 25% following Brexit, so it seemed like it was working.

英國脫歐後，這一數字下降了 25%，看來它是起作用了。

But if you look at current immigration trends, it has jumped above historical immigration levels, exceeding 700,000 net migrants.

但如果你看看當前的移民趨勢，它已經躍居歷史移民水準之上，超過了 70 萬淨移民。

Although EU migration levels have dropped, non-EU levels have increased substantially more.

雖然歐盟國家的移民人數有所減少，但非歐盟國家的移民人數卻大幅增加。

This has been driven by a number of factors, including international student flows, healthcare workers, and refugees.

造成這種情況的因素有很多，其中包括國際學生流、醫護人員和難民。

This sharp increase has caused a rift in the Conservative party, with lawmakers saying things like the rise was completely unacceptable and will be unacceptable as well to the majority of British people.

這一急劇增長在保守黨內引起了裂痕，議員們表示，這種增長是完全不可接受的，也是大多數英國人所不能接受的。

Rishi Sunak himself said that the number was too high.

Rishi Sunak 自己也說這個數字太高了。

So why the high immigration then?

那麼，為什麼會有這麼多移民呢？

The UK has a labor shortage and an aging population.

英國勞動力短缺，人口老齡化嚴重。

Both of these combined are placing a lot of pressure on businesses, especially in healthcare and hospitality.

這兩種情況加在一起，給企業帶來了很大壓力，尤其是醫療保健和酒店業。

To make matters worse, the UK doesn't have the most productive economy, and its decline in trades and foreign investment have further placed pressure on industry.

更糟糕的是，英國的經濟生產力並不高，貿易和外國投資的下降進一步給工業帶來了壓力。

Overall, the UK has little to no choice but to maintain high levels of immigration in line with or above pre-Brexit levels.

總體而言，英國幾乎別無選擇，只能維持與脫歐前水準一致或高於脫歐前水準的高移民水準。

To make matters worse, India, Nigeria, and China make up the largest immigrant groups into the UK.

更糟糕的是，印度、尼日利亞和中國是英國最大的移民群體。

Not very British looking if you ask me.

要我說，看起來不太像英國人。

So the conclusion on immigration?

關於移民的結論是什麼？

Brexit has failed.

英國脫歐失敗了。

Unless, of course, you love immigration, in which case it's succeeded.

當然，除非你喜歡移民，否則就成功了。

All right, what's the conclusion here?

好吧，結論是什麼？

We started by asking, was Brexit worth it?

我們首先要問，英國脫歐值得嗎？

To kick things off, we looked at trade.

首先，我們來看看貿易。

On trade, Brexit has led to Britain lagging all advanced economies, and it has added more red tape, tariffs, and uncertainty.

在貿易方面，英國脫歐導致英國落後於所有發達經濟體，並增加了更多的繁文縟節、關稅和不確定性。

Fail.

失敗。

On investment, we saw that Britain has seen a decline in interest from foreign organizations, being overtaken by their sworn enemies, France.

在投資方面，我們看到外國組織對英國的興趣下降，被他們的死敵法國趕超。

Again, fail.

再次失敗。

On immigration, we ironically saw it rise to historic highs with no end in sight.

在移民問題上，具有諷刺意味的是，我們看到移民問題上升到歷史最高點，而且看不到盡頭。

Another fail.

又一次失敗。

And overall, the UK has lost nearly 200 billion pounds of economic activity, leading us to conclude that Brexit was a terrible, terrible idea, regardless of what Boris Johnson's bus told you.

總體而言，英國損失了近 2000 億英鎊的經濟活動，這讓我們得出結論：無論鮑里斯-約翰遜的巴士告訴你什麼，英國脫歐都是一個糟糕透頂的主意。

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