Name: 埃斯特-佩雷爾邀請我們想象我們所希望的未來：我們應該從哪裡開始？2025 年 SXSW 現場直播 (Esther Perel Invites Us to Imagine Our Preferred Future: Where Should We Begin? Live from SXSW 2025)
Uploaded: 2025-03-23T16:56:44.000Z
Duration: 53 min 26 s

情態助動詞 A2

Welcome to the live recording from the Vox Media Stage at SXSW of another episode of Where Should We Begin?

歡迎收聽從 SXSW 的 Vox Media 舞臺現場錄製的新一期《我們從哪裡開始？

Familiar with Where Should We Begin, anyone?

有人熟悉《我們從哪裡開始》嗎？

So, here is the story that I need to tell you.

This session was supposed to be a session between me and Dr. Peter Attia and we titled the session

這次會議本應是我和彼得-阿蒂亞博士之間的會議，我們將會議命名為

Why Would You Want to Live Longer If You're So Unhappy?

如果你如此不快樂，為什麼還要長壽？

It's a question that I asked him a few years ago when he was writing his book Outlive and it prompted him to rethink some of his definition of longevity and to add a chapter on the importance of emotional health in his thinking about overall health.

這個問題是我幾年前在他撰寫《Outlive》一書時向他提出的，這個問題促使他重新思考了他對長壽的一些定義，並在他對整體健康的思考中增加了關於情感健康重要性的一章。

Dr. Attia had a family emergency, his father is very ill and he had to cancel right after his presentation here, actually.

阿蒂亞博士家裡有急事，他的父親病得很重，他不得不在這裡的演講結束後馬上取消。

So I had to rethink what will I do and with whom would I like to be in conversation.

是以，我不得不重新思考我將做什麼，我想與誰交談。

And I also thought, you know, here is this conversation on longevity that we typically think of within the world that we're living in but then I went to listen to Amy Webb and she was, you were, I'm going to talk to you, you were presenting a whole other world in which I had to project myself in and I had a range of emotions as I was listening to this presentation.

我還想，你知道，這是我們通常認為在我們生活的世界中進行的關於長壽的對話，但後來我去聽了艾米-韋伯的演講，她，你，我要和你談談，你展示了一個全新的世界，我不得不將自己投射其中，我在聽演講的過程中產生了一系列的情緒。

Highs and lows and attractions and disgust and pulls and pushes and it was like a whole range of experiences of the world in which I hope to live in longer.

高潮和谷底、吸引力和厭惡感、拉力和推力，這就像是我對這個世界的一系列體驗，我希望能在這個世界生活得更久一些。

And then I met Frederic Ferd who is explicitly a non-futurist and I thought that would be an amazing conversation between a futurist and a non-futurist, between someone who makes predictions and someone who helps us imagine.

然後我遇到了弗雷德裡克-費爾德，他顯然是一位非未來主義者，我想這將是未來主義者和非未來主義者之間的一次奇妙對話，是預測者和幫助我們想象的人之間的對話。

And then I thought of the painter Magritte, the Belgian painter who would do a painting where he would put a glass on top of an umbrella and he would call it the Vacations of Hegel and I thought that kind of associative thinking, a pipe is not a pipe if you remember that painting, which is really what you see isn't necessarily what it is because if you see it on a painting then it's not really a pipe.

然後我想到了比利時畫家馬格利特，他畫了一幅畫，把一個玻璃杯放在一把雨傘上面，他稱之為《黑格爾的假期》，我覺得這種聯想思維，如果你還記得那幅畫，菸斗就不是菸斗，你看到的其實不一定是菸斗，因為如果你在畫上看到菸斗，那它就不是真正的菸斗。

And how do we create that separation between our internal experience, the subjective and the factual?

我們又是如何在內心體驗、主觀和事實之間建立起這種分離的呢？

Amy Webb, you are the CEO of Future Today Strategy Group and Frederic Ferd, you were the evangelist of Google innovation and the founder of the Google Garage, the lab for creativity.

艾米-韋伯（Amy Webb），您是 "今日未來 "戰略集團的首席執行官；弗雷德裡克-費爾德（Frederic Ferd），您是谷歌創新的傳播者，也是谷歌車庫（Google Garage）創意實驗室的創始人。

We are all three on a threesome blind date.

So just to say yes like that is for me a real special thing.

所以，能這樣說 "是"，對我來說是一件非常特別的事。

Amy, we should start by what is a futurist?

艾米，我們應該從什麼是未來學家開始？

If you could share with us your definition, your working definition of what is a futurist.

請您與我們分享一下您對未來學家的定義和工作定義。

Sure, I could give you a technical explanation of what I do but I think it might be more interesting to hear a quick story.

當然，我可以從技術角度解釋我的工作，但我認為聽我講一個故事可能更有趣。

So in post, just as the Cold War was heating up, there was a man named Herman Kahn who had been hired by the Air Force to help predict the aftermath of a full-blown nuclear war because at that point, the United States was building up a gigantic stockpile of warheads as was the Soviet Union.

是以，在冷戰白熱化的後期，有一個叫赫爾曼-卡恩的人受僱於空軍，幫助預測全面核戰爭的後果，因為當時美國和蘇聯一樣，都在建立龐大的核彈頭儲備。

So it was a very dangerous, horrific time.

是以，那是一段非常危險、恐怖的時期。

At that point, Herman Kahn was trying to explain, look, there are probably many different futures depending on the decisions that get made but military strategists only saw two.

當時，赫爾曼-卡恩試圖解釋說，聽著，根據做出的決定，可能會有許多不同的未來，但軍事戰略家們只看到了兩種。

Everybody is continuing to feel anxious because we have all of these warheads or total annihilation.

每個人都在繼續感到焦慮，因為我們擁有所有這些彈頭或徹底毀滅。

Herman Kahn did not want total annihilation but also couldn't get these people to change their minds.

赫爾曼-卡恩並不想徹底消滅這些人，但也無法讓他們改變主意。

He knew that the data alone you could use to predict but it wasn't enough to influence the decisions that a leader might make.

他知道，僅憑數據可以預測，但不足以影響領導者的決策。

So instead, he came up with the idea of a scenario, a scene, and started telling stories about what might happen in the aftermath of an attack.

於是，他想到了一個場景，開始講述襲擊發生後可能發生的故事。

They weren't emotional but they evoked emotion.

它們並不煽情，但卻能喚起人們的情感。

He described every child's lunch, their milk containers would explain exactly how much radiation was in it and what that might be like.

他描述了每個孩子的午餐，他們的牛奶容器會準確地解釋其中的輻射量以及可能的輻射情況。

And his approach was to describe not total annihilation but a world in which we all survived.

他的方法不是描述徹底毀滅，而是描述一個我們都能倖存的世界。

So the way that I like to describe what I do because there is a predictive piece of it and there is a heavy amount of quantitative and qualitative research but none of that matters if we don't influence how people make their decisions.

是以，我喜歡用這樣的方式來描述我的工作，因為其中有預測的部分，也有大量的定量和定性研究，但如果我們不能影響人們如何做出決定，這些都不重要。

它不是樂觀主義，也不是烏托邦。

You have to take a pragmatic approach because the future arrives through the decisions that we make in the present.

你必須採取務實的態度，因為未來是通過我們現在所做的決定來實現的。

And oftentimes, those decisions are the result of how people feel in a moment which could be influenced by a hundred things that have nothing at all to do with the decision that they're actually making.

很多時候，這些決定是人們在某一時刻的感受所決定的，而這種感受可能會受到上百種與他們實際做出的決定完全無關的事情的影響。

So it's incredible because you just gave me that title.

這真是不可思議，因為你剛剛給了我這個頭銜。

是的，非未來主義者究竟是什麼？

是以，我從未考慮過這個標題。

實際上，我一點也不喜歡職稱。

I think we should not label people in a way that they are this or that or whatever they might do.

我認為，我們不應該給人貼標籤，說他們是這樣或那樣的人，或者他們可能會做什麼。

What I care about, and I think that's what most of us care about, is the future.

我關心的是未來，我想這也是我們大多數人關心的。

And not just care about it but take care of it.

And so what I want to help people to do is see the future differently.

是以，我希望幫助人們以不同的方式看待未來。

以他們擁有它的方式來看待它。

That they see it as something that is not the future.

我們需要改變它，才能看到我的未來。

Because that's the only thing that's going to happen for you.

The future is not something that happens to you.

未來不是發生在你身上的事情。

And the future is also not out there on the horizon.

I think the future is happening right now in this moment.

我認為未來就發生在此時此刻。

It's decided by our choices we make in every moment.

這是由我們每時每刻的選擇決定的。

If I choose to be kind to someone, that determines my future.

如果我選擇善待他人，那就決定了我的未來。

And the future is also something where we don't have to look outside.

未來也是我們不必向外尋找的東西。

To try to imagine, as we human beings have that ability to imagine.

試著想象，因為我們人類有想象的能力。

Imagine a future that we want to see happening.

想象一下我們希望看到的未來。

And we mostly go to three places when we imagine the future.

而我們在想象未來時，大多會去三個地方。

So we imagine ourselves in a year from today being at the beach or being in a house or being in some place on this planet.

是以，我們想象自己一年後在海灘上、在房子裡、在地球上的某個地方。

Then we're trying to imagine who we're going to be surrounded by.

然後，我們試著想象我們身邊會有哪些人。

Our co-workers or the people that are in our community or the families.

我們的同事、社區居民或家庭。

And then we're trying to imagine what we actually engage in.

然後，我們試圖想象我們實際從事的工作。

But I think there's missing an incredible piece in that picture.

但我認為，這張照片中缺少了一個令人難以置信的部分。

And that is, how do we want to feel in the future?

那就是，我們希望未來的感覺如何？

That is the most critical question you need to ask yourself.

這是你需要問自己的最關鍵問題。

Because imagining how you want to feel in the future helps you to actually make progress towards that.

因為想象你未來想要的感覺，有助於你真正朝著這個目標邁進。

So I had this moment when you were talking that I was in a session with a couple.

你說話的時候，我正在和一對夫婦進行治療。

Both of you agree that decisions made in the present influence very much the future.

你們都同意，現在做出的決定對未來影響很大。

But you are experiencing reality very differently.

但你們對現實的體驗卻截然不同。

And then, as I do in the session, you talk, but I'm watching you.

然後，就像我在會議中做的那樣，你說話，但我在看著你。

I could not disagree more with everything that you just said.

我完全不同意你剛才所說的一切。