Good morning.

早上好。

Welcome to the live recording from the Vox Media Stage at SXSW of another episode of Where Should We Begin?

歡迎收聽從 SXSW 的 Vox Media 舞臺現場錄製的新一期《我們從哪裡開始？

Familiar with Where Should We Begin, anyone?

有人熟悉《我們從哪裡開始》嗎？

So, here is the story that I need to tell you.

所以，我要告訴你一個故事。

This session was supposed to be a session between me and Dr. Peter Attia and we titled the session

這次會議本應是我和彼得-阿蒂亞博士之間的會議，我們將會議命名為

Why Would You Want to Live Longer If You're So Unhappy?

如果你如此不快樂，為什麼還要長壽？

It's a question that I asked him a few years ago when he was writing his book Outlive and it prompted him to rethink some of his definition of longevity and to add a chapter on the importance of emotional health in his thinking about overall health.

這個問題是我幾年前在他撰寫《Outlive》一書時向他提出的，這個問題促使他重新思考了他對長壽的一些定義，並在他對整體健康的思考中增加了關於情感健康重要性的一章。

And then I thought, basically,

然後我想，基本上

Dr. Attia had a family emergency, his father is very ill and he had to cancel right after his presentation here, actually.

阿蒂亞博士家裡有急事，他的父親病得很重，他不得不在這裡的演講結束後馬上取消。

So I had to rethink what will I do and with whom would I like to be in conversation.

是以，我不得不重新思考我將做什麼，我想與誰交談。

And I also thought, you know, here is this conversation on longevity that we typically think of within the world that we're living in but then I went to listen to Amy Webb and she was, you were, I'm going to talk to you, you were presenting a whole other world in which I had to project myself in and I had a range of emotions as I was listening to this presentation.

我還想，你知道，這是我們通常認為在我們生活的世界中進行的關於長壽的對話，但後來我去聽了艾米-韋伯的演講，她，你，我要和你談談，你展示了一個全新的世界，我不得不將自己投射其中，我在聽演講的過程中產生了一系列的情緒。

Highs and lows and attractions and disgust and pulls and pushes and it was like a whole range of experiences of the world in which I hope to live in longer.

高潮和谷底、吸引力和厭惡感、拉力和推力，這就像是我對這個世界的一系列體驗，我希望能在這個世界生活得更久一些。

So it was all coming together.

於是，一切就都水到渠成了。

And then I met Frederic Ferd who is explicitly a non-futurist and I thought that would be an amazing conversation between a futurist and a non-futurist, between someone who makes predictions and someone who helps us imagine.

然後我遇到了弗雷德裡克-費爾德，他顯然是一位非未來主義者，我想這將是未來主義者和非未來主義者之間的一次奇妙對話，是預測者和幫助我們想象的人之間的對話。

And then I thought of the painter Magritte, the Belgian painter who would do a painting where he would put a glass on top of an umbrella and he would call it the Vacations of Hegel and I thought that kind of associative thinking, a pipe is not a pipe if you remember that painting, which is really what you see isn't necessarily what it is because if you see it on a painting then it's not really a pipe.

然後我想到了比利時畫家馬格利特，他畫了一幅畫，把一個玻璃杯放在一把雨傘上面，他稱之為《黑格爾的假期》，我覺得這種聯想思維，如果你還記得那幅畫，菸斗就不是菸斗，你看到的其實不一定是菸斗，因為如果你在畫上看到菸斗，那它就不是真正的菸斗。

And how do we create that separation between our internal experience, the subjective and the factual?

我們又是如何在內心體驗、主觀和事實之間建立起這種分離的呢？

So I want to welcome you both.

所以，我想歡迎你們兩位。

Amy Webb, you are the CEO of Future Today Strategy Group and Frederic Ferd, you were the evangelist of Google innovation and the founder of the Google Garage, the lab for creativity.

艾米-韋伯（Amy Webb），您是 "今日未來 "戰略集團的首席執行官；弗雷德裡克-費爾德（Frederic Ferd），您是谷歌創新的傳播者，也是谷歌車庫（Google Garage）創意實驗室的創始人。

It's a treat.

這是一種享受。

And first of all, thank you.

首先，謝謝你。

We are all three on a threesome blind date.

我們三人一起相親。

None of us have ever met before.

我們以前從未見過面。

So just to say yes like that is for me a real special thing.

所以，能這樣說 "是"，對我來說是一件非常特別的事。

Amy, we should start by what is a futurist?

艾米，我們應該從什麼是未來學家開始？

If you could share with us your definition, your working definition of what is a futurist.

請您與我們分享一下您對未來學家的定義和工作定義。

Sure, I could give you a technical explanation of what I do but I think it might be more interesting to hear a quick story.

當然，我可以從技術角度解釋我的工作，但我認為聽我講一個故事可能更有趣。

Yes.

是的。

So in post, just as the Cold War was heating up, there was a man named Herman Kahn who had been hired by the Air Force to help predict the aftermath of a full-blown nuclear war because at that point, the United States was building up a gigantic stockpile of warheads as was the Soviet Union.

是以，在冷戰白熱化的後期，有一個叫赫爾曼-卡恩的人受僱於空軍，幫助預測全面核戰爭的後果，因為當時美國和蘇聯一樣，都在建立龐大的核彈頭儲備。

So it was a very dangerous, horrific time.

是以，那是一段非常危險、恐怖的時期。

At that point, Herman Kahn was trying to explain, look, there are probably many different futures depending on the decisions that get made but military strategists only saw two.

當時，赫爾曼-卡恩試圖解釋說，聽著，根據做出的決定，可能會有許多不同的未來，但軍事戰略家們只看到了兩種。

Everybody is continuing to feel anxious because we have all of these warheads or total annihilation.

每個人都在繼續感到焦慮，因為我們擁有所有這些彈頭或徹底毀滅。

There was no in-between.

沒有中間地帶。

Herman Kahn did not want total annihilation but also couldn't get these people to change their minds.

赫爾曼-卡恩並不想徹底消滅這些人，但也無法讓他們改變主意。

So instead, he borrowed from Hollywood.

是以，他轉而向好萊塢借錢。

He knew that the data alone you could use to predict but it wasn't enough to influence the decisions that a leader might make.

他知道，僅憑數據可以預測，但不足以影響領導者的決策。

So instead, he came up with the idea of a scenario, a scene, and started telling stories about what might happen in the aftermath of an attack.

於是，他想到了一個場景，開始講述襲擊發生後可能發生的故事。

And these stories were so visceral.

而這些故事是如此直觀。

They weren't emotional but they evoked emotion.

它們並不煽情，但卻能喚起人們的情感。

They were visceral.

他們是內斂的。

They were detailed.

他們說得很詳細。

He described every child's lunch, their milk containers would explain exactly how much radiation was in it and what that might be like.

他描述了每個孩子的午餐，他們的牛奶容器會準確地解釋其中的輻射量以及可能的輻射情況。

And his approach was to describe not total annihilation but a world in which we all survived.

他的方法不是描述徹底毀滅，而是描述一個我們都能倖存的世界。

So the way that I like to describe what I do because there is a predictive piece of it and there is a heavy amount of quantitative and qualitative research but none of that matters if we don't influence how people make their decisions.

是以，我喜歡用這樣的方式來描述我的工作，因為其中有預測的部分，也有大量的定量和定性研究，但如果我們不能影響人們如何做出決定，這些都不重要。

The future is not aspirational.

未來不是空想。

It's not optimistic or dystopian.

它不是樂觀主義，也不是烏托邦。

You have to take a pragmatic approach because the future arrives through the decisions that we make in the present.

你必須採取務實的態度，因為未來是通過我們現在所做的決定來實現的。

And oftentimes, those decisions are the result of how people feel in a moment which could be influenced by a hundred things that have nothing at all to do with the decision that they're actually making.

很多時候，這些決定是人們在某一時刻的感受所決定的，而這種感受可能會受到上百種與他們實際做出的決定完全無關的事情的影響。

I'm going to hold back first.

我先忍忍。

And how would you define a non-futurist?

你如何定義非未來主義者？

So it's incredible because you just gave me that title.

這真是不可思議，因為你剛剛給了我這個頭銜。

And congratulations for making that up.

祝賀你編出了這個故事。

Yes, what a non-futurist actually is.

是的，非未來主義者究竟是什麼？

So I never considered that title.

是以，我從未考慮過這個標題。

I actually don't like job titles at all.

實際上，我一點也不喜歡職稱。

I think we should not label people in a way that they are this or that or whatever they might do.

我認為，我們不應該給人貼標籤，說他們是這樣或那樣的人，或者他們可能會做什麼。

What I care about, and I think that's what most of us care about, is the future.

我關心的是未來，我想這也是我們大多數人關心的。

And not just care about it but take care of it.

不僅要關心它，還要照顧它。

And so what I want to help people to do is see the future differently.

是以，我希望幫助人們以不同的方式看待未來。

See it in a way that they own it.

以他們擁有它的方式來看待它。

That they see it as something that is not the future.

他們認為這不是未來。

I think we need to change one word.

我認為我們需要改動一個詞。

We need to change it to see my future.

我們需要改變它，才能看到我的未來。

Because that's the only thing that's going to happen for you.

因為這是你唯一能做的事。

The future is not something that happens to you.

未來不是發生在你身上的事情。

It's something that you make happen.

這是由你來實現的。

And the future is also not out there on the horizon.

未來也不在地平線上。

I think the future is happening right now in this moment.

我認為未來就發生在此時此刻。

And I absolutely agree, Amy.

我完全同意，艾米。

It's decided by our choices we make in every moment.

這是由我們每時每刻的選擇決定的。

If I choose to be kind to someone, that determines my future.

如果我選擇善待他人，那就決定了我的未來。

And hopefully for someone else as well.

希望對其他人也是如此。

And the future is also something where we don't have to look outside.

未來也是我們不必向外尋找的東西。

We have to start to look inside first.

我們必須先從內心開始審視。

To try to imagine, as we human beings have that ability to imagine.

試著想象，因為我們人類有想象的能力。

Imagine a future that we want to see happening.

想象一下我們希望看到的未來。

And we mostly go to three places when we imagine the future.

而我們在想象未來時，大多會去三個地方。

It's a place, right?

這是一個地方，對嗎？

So we imagine ourselves in a year from today being at the beach or being in a house or being in some place on this planet.

是以，我們想象自己一年後在海灘上、在房子裡、在地球上的某個地方。

Then we're trying to imagine who we're going to be surrounded by.

然後，我們試著想象我們身邊會有哪些人。

Our co-workers or the people that are in our community or the families.

我們的同事、社區居民或家庭。

And then we're trying to imagine what we actually engage in.

然後，我們試圖想象我們實際從事的工作。

What are we doing?

我們在做什麼？

But I think there's missing an incredible piece in that picture.

但我認為，這張照片中缺少了一個令人難以置信的部分。

And that is, how do we want to feel in the future?

那就是，我們希望未來的感覺如何？

That is the most critical question you need to ask yourself.

這是你需要問自己的最關鍵問題。

Because imagining how you want to feel in the future helps you to actually make progress towards that.

因為想象你未來想要的感覺，有助於你真正朝著這個目標邁進。

So I had this moment when you were talking that I was in a session with a couple.

你說話的時候，我正在和一對夫婦進行治療。

In which one person is pragmatic.

其中有一個人是務實的。

Talks about decision-making.

談決策。

Both of you agree that decisions made in the present influence very much the future.

你們都同意，現在做出的決定對未來影響很大。

But you are experiencing reality very differently.

但你們對現實的體驗卻截然不同。

And then you began to talk.

然後你就開始說話了。

And then, as I do in the session, you talk, but I'm watching you.

然後，就像我在會議中做的那樣，你說話，但我在看著你。

So what was your experience?

你有什麼經驗？

How was this landing on you?

你是怎麼著陸的？

And what were you holding back on?

你在隱瞞什麼？

Sure, how uncomfortable do we...

當然，我們...

I could not disagree more with everything that you just said.

我完全不同意你剛才所說的一切。

This is...

這是...

Welcome to couples therapy.

歡迎來到夫妻治療。

Tip of the hat to Esther.

向埃斯特致敬

Look, 99% of my time is spent with the chief executives of the world's largest companies and government leaders.

聽著，我 99% 的時間都花在與全球最大公司的首席執行官和政府領導人打交道上。

The problem with how you are describing we can all make a better future is that it is 100% inward facing.

你所說的 "我們都能創造更美好的未來"，問題就在於它百分之百是內向型的。

And we are living in challenging times right now because people followed their bliss.

我們現在生活在一個充滿挑戰的時代，因為人們追隨自己的幸福。

And their bliss was I have a single authoritarian viewpoint on how the world ought to look.

他們的幸福在於，我對世界應該是什麼樣子，只有一個獨裁的觀點。

So the stark reality is feelings matter.

是以，嚴峻的現實是感情很重要。

But at the end of the day, nobody is inherently incentivized to make better decisions for everybody.

但歸根結底，沒有人天生就有動力為每個人做出更好的決定。

Most people, to some degree, are selfish.

大多數人在某種程度上都是自私的。

So if we want to create the best...

是以，如果我們想創造最好的...

They are.

它們是

You can disagree.

你可以不同意。

But the data point to the fact that in most circumstances people are going to make choices that benefit themselves rather than the public good.

但數據表明，在大多數情況下，人們會做出有利於自身而非公共利益的選擇。

I wish it wasn't that way, but that's the world that we live in.

我希望不是這樣，但這就是我們生活的世界。

Would you say that across the world?

你會在全世界都這麼說嗎？

So I've lived in several countries.

是以，我曾在多個國家生活過。

Most of my experience has been in Asia.

我的大部分經歷都在亞洲。

I've lived in Japan for a long time.

我在日本生活了很長時間。

I've lived in China.

我在中國生活過。

And I spent a lot of time in Europe.

我在歐洲待了很長時間。

Yeah, I would say in every case so far, with the exception of Kenya where I've spent some time, and I think that there's a little bit more of an emphasis on the collective, that people are still very much...

是的，我想說的是，到目前為止，除了肯亞，我在那裡待過一段時間，我認為那裡更強調集體，人們仍然非常......

We are incentivized and wired to make decisions that preserve our own best interests.

我們的動機和思維方式是做出維護自身最大利益的決定。

So if that's the case, we want to achieve a better future, we have to think of what's going to cause somebody to make that better decision.

是以，如果是這樣的話，我們想要實現更美好的未來，就必須考慮是什麼原因會讓某人做出更好的決定。

It's not enough to say, imagine yourself in the future and hope it all works out and create a vision, and that's great.

僅僅說 "想象自己的未來，希望一切順利 "和 "創造一個願景 "是不夠的。

Because there are plenty of people doing that in a way that is detrimental for the whole.

因為有很多人都在以一種不利於整體的方式這樣做。

So I just want to take a quick pulse check.

所以，我只想做個簡單的脈搏檢查。

How many of you had a sudden rise of stress hormones?

你們當中有多少人的壓力荷爾蒙突然升高？

That happens.

這種情況時有發生。

I do stress people out.

我確實會給人帶來壓力。

No, it wasn't you.

不，不是你。

It was the fact that we are becoming less and less accustomed to seeing people who are experiencing things deeply, that they care about deeply, and that they also disagree about in front of others.

事實上，我們越來越不習慣看到人們在別人面前深刻地體驗和關注一些事情，而且還對這些事情持有不同意見。

Because part of what's happening to us is that we are living in a technological world that is basically removing every friction possible and giving us algorithmic perfections to the point where when things don't go as we had imagined, we are stumped and we don't know how to experience confrontation, frustration, conflict, or disagreement.

因為發生在我們身上的部分情況是，我們生活在一個技術世界裡，這個世界基本上消除了一切可能的摩擦，併為我們提供了算法上的完美，以至於當事情沒有按照我們的想象發展時，我們會束手無策，不知道如何體驗對抗、挫折、衝突或分歧。

But this is part...

但這部分...

I mean, for all of you who listen to the couple's session, these are difficult conversations.

我的意思是，對於所有聽過這對夫婦談話的人來說，這些談話都很困難。

My nervousness also can go up, but I just understand that the piece I've added here is that they actually both really care about what they are talking about.

我的緊張情緒也會上升，但我只是明白，我在這裡添加的內容是，他們其實都非常關心自己在說什麼。

And they enter it through a very different door.

他們從一扇截然不同的門進入。

Interestingly, when you were talking about we are incentivized to do what serves us,

有趣的是，當你談到我們有動力去做對我們有利的事情時、

I was actually thinking that from a relationship point of view, we do have two primary models.

實際上，我在想，從人際關係的角度來看，我們確實有兩種主要模式。

We have one model that is very much represented in this room as well, and that is a model that looks at relationships as organized around loyalty, and community, and duty, and obligation.

我們有一種模式在這個會議廳裡也很有代表性，這種模式認為人際關係是圍繞忠誠、社區、責任和義務來組織的。

And that's very different from the model that you, I think, highlight more, that wants to think about others but from a place of choice, not of duty and not of obligation.

我認為，這與你所強調的模式大相徑庭，後者希望為他人著想，但出發點是選擇，而不是責任和義務。

It's choice, it's options, it's freedom, it's self-determination.

這是選擇，這是選項，這是自由，這是自決。

So, if I was to...

是以，如果我要...

So far, so good, or do you now need to answer her?

到目前為止，一切順利，還是你現在需要回答她？

Or respond, not answer.

或者回應，而不是回答。

I could, yes, respond.

是的，我可以回答。

You always can choose your response, right?

你總是可以選擇自己的回答，不是嗎？

Yes, you always choose your response.

是的，你總是可以選擇自己的回答。

Not reactions.

沒有反應。

So, I fully agree, Amy.

所以，我完全同意，艾米。

We are all selfish.

我們都是自私的。

But I'm also reminded of Anais Nin, who said, we don't see the world as it is, we see the world as we are.

但我也想起了 Anais Nin，她說，我們看到的不是世界的本來面目，而是我們自己。

And so, if people are selfish, that's wonderful, because if people want to make themselves happy, if people want to see that they feel loved and connected, great, do it.

是以，如果人們是自私的，那很好，因為如果人們想讓自己快樂，如果人們想讓自己感受到愛和聯繫，那就去做吧。

Because if you want to make yourself happy, research shows that if you're grateful for something, right, and if you tell somebody, thank you for being in my life, or thank you for your contributions, or whatever it is, it not just makes that person more happy, the research shows it also makes you happy.

因為如果你想讓自己快樂，研究表明，如果你對某件事情心存感激，對吧，如果你對某人說，謝謝你出現在我的生活中，或者謝謝你的貢獻，或者不管是什麼，這不僅會讓那個人更快樂，研究表明，這也會讓你快樂。

So, if you selfishly say thank you to everyone, and be grateful for the things you have in your life, that increases your happiness.

是以，如果你自私地對每個人說謝謝，對生活中擁有的一切心存感激，那就會增加你的幸福感。

So, when I listen to you, it reminds me of a sentence that I say very often, which is that it's the quality of our relationships that determines the quality of our lives.

所以，聽了你的話，讓我想起我經常說的一句話，那就是人際關係的品質決定了我們生活的品質。

But I am less, and yes, the good life is the project that you're alluding to, it's the Harvard longitudinal study that really looked at, on an individual level, the most important factor is the quality of your connections that helps you with longevity and with happiness.

但我更少，是的，"美好生活 "是你提到的那個項目，是哈佛大學的縱向研究，它真正研究了在個人層面上，最重要的因素是你人際關係的品質，這有助於你的長壽和幸福。

But I don't think that you are concerned with happiness, if I understood what you say.

但如果我理解了你的意思，我覺得你並不關心幸福。

You're concerned with what is the world that we are living in, and what is our propensity for hubris, grandiosity, and self-destruction.

你關注的是我們生活的世界是怎樣的，我們的狂妄、自大和自我毀滅傾向是怎樣的。

Sure, look, context matters.

當然，聽著，語境很重要。

And my definition of happiness, and your definition of happiness, Esther, may be very different.

我對幸福的定義和你對幸福的定義，埃絲特，可能大相徑庭。

I'm not sure.

我不確定。

I live somewhere between both.

我的生活介於兩者之間。

But maybe I should refine that by saying the qualities, the characteristics, the emotions, the events, the things that make you happy are probably not the same exact things that would make me happy.

不過，也許我應該說，讓你快樂的品質、特點、情感、事件和事情，可能與讓我快樂的事情並不相同。

And again, look, the future, to some degree, is built through feeling.

再說一遍，你看，未來在某種程度上是通過感覺來構建的。

Because ultimately, you know, we arrive in the world that is shaped by the decisions that we got made.

因為歸根結底，我們來到的這個世界是由我們做出的決定所塑造的。

And if you want to tie decisions to happiness and self-fulfillment, then I think we have to consider the fact that not everybody is coming from the same place.

如果你想把決定與幸福和自我實現聯繫在一起，那麼我認為我們必須考慮這樣一個事實，即並非每個人的出發點都是一樣的。

Me, personally,

就我個人而言

I spend much more time thinking about meaning than happiness.

比起幸福，我花更多的時間思考意義。

You're evolved.

你已經進化了

I try.

我儘量