Police have fired tear gas and rubber bullets to disperse demonstrators in Turkey's biggest city.

警方發射催淚瓦斯和橡皮子彈驅散土耳其最大城市的示威者。

Ekrem İmamoğlu was taken into custody on Wednesday on charges of corruption and aiding a terrorist group.

埃克雷姆-伊馬莫魯（Ekrem İmamoğlu）於週三被拘留，罪名是腐敗和協助恐怖組織。

But the opposition says his arrest is politically motivated as he's considered the top challenger to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

但反對派稱，逮捕他是出於政治動機，因為他被認為是土耳其總統雷傑普-塔伊普-埃爾多安的頭號挑戰者。

Erdoğan has dismissed the accusation as theatrics.

埃爾多安駁斥了這一指控，稱其只是在演戲。

For more, let's speak to Gönül Tol, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C.

欲瞭解更多資訊，讓我們採訪華盛頓中東研究所高級研究員戈努爾-托爾（Gönül Tol）。

Good to have you with us. What's behind the timing of this arrest?

很高興你能來這次逮捕的時機是什麼？

Well, the main opposition party, the CHP, which Erdoğan, Ekrem İmamoğlu belongs to, is set to hold its presidential primaries on Sunday.

埃爾多安和埃克雷姆-伊馬莫奧盧所屬的主要反對黨--塞爾維亞民主黨將於週日舉行總統初選。

And the frontrunner is Ekrem İmamoğlu. So that's one of the reasons.

而領跑者是埃克雷姆-伊馬莫魯。這就是原因之一。

And the second reason is Erdoğan doesn't just want to block him from running for presidency in 2028.

第二個原因是，埃爾多安不僅僅想阻止他競選 2028 年的總統。

He also wants to recapture Istanbul. Istanbul is Turkey's largest city and its economic powerhouse with lots of resources.

他還想奪回伊斯坦布爾。伊斯坦布爾是土耳其最大的城市，也是土耳其的經濟重鎮，擁有大量資源。

And when Erdoğan was the mayor of the city, it really helped him.

在埃爾多安擔任市長時，這確實幫了他大忙。

And later in his tenure, the city and its large resources helped Erdoğan build his clientelistic network.

在埃爾多安任期的後期，這座城市及其龐大的資源幫助他建立了自己的客戶網絡。

So recapturing those resources at a time when Turkish economy is really struggling ahead of 2028 elections is critical for Erdoğan.

是以，在 2028 年大選前土耳其經濟陷入困境之際，重新獲得這些資源對埃爾多安來說至關重要。

As you mentioned, the elections are in 2028. But what does this all tell us about the current state of the political climate?

正如您提到的，選舉將於 2028 年舉行。但這一切對當前的政治氣候有何啟示？

Well, it's very repressive. There is no rule of law. Courts are highly controlled by President Erdoğan.

這裡非常壓抑。沒有法治。法院受到埃爾多安總統的高度控制。

And it is a country textbook case of what political scientists call a competitive authoritarian regime, where there are elections, political parties are legal, and the competition is legal.

它是政治學家所說的競爭性專制制度的教科書案例，在這種制度下，有選舉，政黨是合法的，競爭也是合法的。

But the incumbent changes the rule of the game and has so much resources and controls bureaucracy that the electoral competition is not fair.

但執政者改變了遊戲規則，擁有大量資源，控制著官僚機構，選舉競爭並不公平。

But with this decision, the recent decision to arrest his top rival, I think Erdoğan is trying to shift Turkey's competitive authoritarian regime into a Putin-style full-fledged autocracy.

但我認為，埃爾多安的這一決定，也就是最近逮捕其頭號競爭對手的決定，正試圖將土耳其競爭激烈的獨裁政權轉變為普京式的全面專制。

And we've seen this outpouring of support, the protesters coming out to the streets, defying the ban on demonstrations.

我們看到，抗議者不顧示威禁令，走上街頭，表達他們的支持。

What do you see coming out of this? Could this backfire against President Erdoğan?

你認為會出現什麼結果？這會對埃爾多安總統產生反作用嗎？

It could, and it did before. If you remember, in 2019 municipal elections, and that was the first time when Ekrem İmamoğlu won the mayorship,

可以，以前也是這樣。如果你們還記得，在 2019 年市政選舉中，埃克雷姆-伊馬莫魯第一次贏得了市長職位、

Erdoğan did not accept the results and called for a rerun. And in the first round of elections, Ekrem İmamoğlu had won the mayorship by a thin minority.

埃爾多安不接受選舉結果，要求重新選舉。而在第一輪選舉中，埃克雷姆-伊馬莫魯以微弱優勢贏得了市長職位。

And in the second round, people got really frustrated with Erdoğan's decision, thinking that this was using his powers to undermine democracy.

在第二輪選舉中，人們對埃爾多安的決定感到非常沮喪，認為這是在利用他的權力破壞民主。

So more people went to the ballot, and Ekrem İmamoğlu ended up winning by even a bigger margin.

於是更多的人去投票，埃克雷姆-伊馬莫魯最終以更大的優勢獲勝。

So that tells us that these things can backfire. But this is not 2019. Turkey of 2025 is a country where repression is a lot stronger.

是以，這告訴我們，這些事情可能會適得其反。但現在不是 2019 年。2025 年的土耳其是一個鎮壓力度更大的國家。

Today, thousands of people are on the streets. And if you look at Turkey's history of popular protests, in 2013, again, hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets in protest of Erdoğan's policies.

今天，成千上萬的人走上街頭。回顧土耳其民眾抗議活動的歷史，2013年同樣有數十萬人走上街頭，抗議埃爾多安的政策。

But since then, Erdoğan has made sure that these large-scale protests do not happen. So right now the protests are taking place, but these people are taking a huge risk.

但從那時起，埃爾多安就確保這些大規模抗議不會發生。是以，現在抗議活動正在進行，但這些人正冒著巨大的風險。

And are these protests the only tool or form of leverage the opposition has, or are they responding in other ways?

這些抗議活動是反對派唯一的工具或手段，還是他們以其他方式做出迴應？

No, pretty much street protests I see as the only tool available to the main opposition party, because we are talking about a country where there is no rule of law.

不，我認為街頭抗議是主要反對黨唯一可用的工具，因為我們談論的是一個沒有法治的國家。

And the rules of the game can be changed on an autocrat's whim. So there is not that much that the opposition party can do in terms of they cannot go to the courts, they cannot use the legal framework.

遊戲規則可以隨專制者的一時興起而改變。是以，反對黨能做的並不多，他們不能訴諸法庭，不能利用法律框架。

The media is under Erdoğan's control. So one of the very few places that opposition parties control in terms of media outlets, they have to be very careful because they constantly face fines.

媒體在埃爾多安的控制之下。是以，作為反對黨控制的為數不多的媒體機構之一，他們必須非常小心，因為他們經常面臨罰款。

So street protests, that's why, is one of the very few options available to both the political opposition and the popular opposition.

是以，街頭抗議是政治反對派和民眾反對派為數不多的選擇之一。

Okay, Gönül Tol, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C. We appreciate your time and your insights. Thank you.

好的，Gönül Tol，華盛頓特區中東研究所高級研究員。我們感謝您的時間和見解。謝謝。

Thanks for having me.

謝謝你邀請我。