Name: 遊戲開發 2024》：好、壞與 2025 年預測 (Game Dev 2024: The Good, The Bad, & The 2025 Predictions)
Uploaded: 2025-02-16T13:58:10.000Z
Duration: 14 min 25 s

So a lot's happened in the games industry in 2024.

是以，2024 年的遊戲產業發生了很多事情。

未來簡單式

It's not been great for those people working in the industry and I don't think it's going to be good for people playing games in the future if it continues the way it is.

這對遊戲行業的從業者來說不是好事，我認為如果繼續這樣下去，對未來玩遊戲的人來說也不是好事。

現在進行式

So the question is what are these events and what can it tell us about what's coming in 2025 and how should we prepare for it?

那麼問題來了，這些事件是什麼，它能告訴我們 2025 年會發生什麼，我們應該如何做好準備？

So first of all let's take a look at the games industry within 2024.

是以，首先讓我們來看看 2024 年的遊戲產業。

We've had 13,000 job losses this year alone and that's compounded by the fact that we had 10,000 job losses in 2023.

僅今年一年，我們就損失了 1.3 萬個工作崗位，而 2023 年損失的 1 萬個工作崗位更是雪上加霜。

So this is the likes of Microsoft Gaming.

They had nearly 3,000 layoffs, Unity Technologies over 1,800, Sony, Electronic Arts, Ubisoft, Epic Games, Take-Two Interactive, Riot Games and Sega.

他們裁員近 3000 人，Unity Technologies 裁員超過 1800 人，索尼、電子藝界、育碧、Epic Games、Take-Two Interactive、Riot Games 和世嘉也都裁員。

What's really interesting to me and it seems typical of industry today and how we operate big business, each of these companies made a substantial profit last year.

讓我真正感興趣的是，這些公司去年都獲得了可觀的利潤，這似乎是當今工業的典型特徵，也是我們經營大企業的方式。

Take Microsoft Gaming, laid off 3,000 members of staff but made a $5 billion profit.

就拿微軟遊戲公司（Microsoft Gaming）來說，該公司裁員 3000 人，但卻獲得了 50 億美元的利潤。

Unity $1.2 billion, Sony Interactive Entertainment $3.5 billion, Electronic Arts $2 billion and so on.

Unity 12 億美元，索尼互動娛樂 35 億美元，電子藝界 20 億美元，等等。

So let's dig a little bit deeper and take that a bit further.

是以，讓我們再深入一點，把這個問題再往前推進一步。

The average annual salary for a game artist in the United States is $123,136.

美國遊戲美術師的平均年薪為 123,136 美元。

That actually sounds a little bit high to me perhaps it's being pulled up by some high earners there somewhere, but we'll take it that it's $123,000.

在我看來，這聽起來有點高，也許是被某些高收入者拉高了，但我們認為是 123,000 美元。

Now Microsoft Gaming in their wisdom, they laid off 3,000 members of staff.

現在，微軟遊戲公司明智地裁掉了 3000 名員工。

是以，你只有不到 3.7 億美元。

That is a percentage of their $5 billion profit is 7.4%.

I don't exactly know the employment laws in the US, but let's say there's other costs in there.

我不太清楚美國的就業法，但可以說其中還有其他費用。

Perhaps you have to put something to pension if you're an employer.

如果你是僱主，也許你必須為養老金準備一些東西。

So 10% of their profits, this is just their profits, could go on to keeping those staff, but it's not.

是以，他們利潤的 10%，這只是他們的利潤，可以用來留住這些員工，但事實並非如此。

And unfortunately, this is a trend we see across many industries.

不幸的是，我們在許多行業都看到了這種趨勢。

These companies have to show that they're growing.

這些公司必須證明自己在成長。

It's not just okay to have good profits, they need to show that the profits are going up each year.

不僅僅是利潤好就行，還需要證明利潤每年都在增長。

Otherwise the shareholders get a bit scared and they might withdraw their money.

否則，股東們會有點害怕，他們可能會撤資。

And of course, to make sure these profits keep going up, they will cut where they can.

當然，為了確保利潤持續增長，他們會盡可能削減開支。

在這種情況下，就是工作人員。

I can't help but feel this is really counterintuitive.

If you've got 10% of your profits that you could be putting on to staff to make these games, the product that you are selling, you'd think you'd want to keep them.

如果你有 10%的利潤可以用來僱用員工製作這些遊戲、銷售這些產品，你會認為你想留住他們。

但我不是一個明智的首席執行官。

And we also get reports about how difficult it is to work as an artist within the industry.

此外，我們還收到一些關於藝術家在業內工作有多麼困難的報告。

It seems artists in particular are treated quite badly, difficult conditions, huge pressure, long hours.

藝術家的待遇似乎尤其糟糕，條件艱苦、壓力巨大、工作時間長。

So people are not only losing their jobs, but they're not particularly nice jobs to start with.

是以，人們不僅失去了工作，而且一開始就不是什麼好工作。

那麼，為什麼會出現這種情況呢？

Well, unfortunately, this is the common progression of putting profits before people.

不幸的是，這就是重利輕人的普遍現象。

And it's the natural progression of big corporations.

這也是大公司的自然發展規律。

They purposely bring these type of people in who are making these decisions to sell off staff because they're only concerned with profit.

他們故意把這類人招進來，讓他們做出賣掉員工的決定，因為他們只關心利潤。

And they will tell that person, your job is to make this company profitable or more profitable.

他們會告訴那個人，你的工作就是讓公司盈利或更多盈利。

And unfortunately, the inevitable treatment of workers follows.

不幸的是，工人的待遇也不可避免地隨之而來。

We haven't got to the worst part of 2024 yet.

我們還沒到 2024 年最糟糕的時候。

There is, of course, the elephant in the room, which is AI.

當然，房間裡還有一頭大象，那就是人工智能。

AI has the potential to take away a lot of jobs in the industry.

人工智能有可能奪走該行業的大量工作崗位。

And of course, CEOs will always look for ways to cut costs.

當然，首席執行官們總會想方設法削減成本。

A big cost for any company is the staffing.

對於任何公司來說，人員配備都是一大成本。

So CEOs are absolutely desperate to get AI working instead of those staff members.

是以，首席執行官們絕對迫切希望讓人工智能代替那些員工工作。

The AI will work 24 hours a day and they won't complain about tough conditions or high pressure.

人工智能將每天 24 小時工作，他們不會抱怨條件艱苦或壓力大。

Now, AI certainly isn't there yet, in my opinion, but it's definitely having an impact already on the workplace.

現在，在我看來，人工智能肯定還沒到那一步，但它肯定已經對工作場所產生了影響。

I've heard of lots of freelance concept artists having less work.

我聽說很多自由概念藝術家的工作都比較少。

And the type of work that's out there seems to be cleaning up AI and it's bad job that it's done.

現在的工作類型似乎是在清理人工智能，這是個糟糕的工作。

So is there anything around the corner that's going to protect us or save us from this AI scourge?

那麼，有沒有什麼東西能保護我們或拯救我們免遭人工智能的禍害呢？

Well, you might be thinking, what about the court cases that are coming up?

你可能會想，接下來的法庭案件怎麼辦？

They're being sued for copyright infringement because they've scraped artists' work without their permission.

他們被起訴侵犯版權，因為他們在未經藝術家許可的情況下盜用了他們的作品。

And maybe these big companies won't be able to scrape people's artwork anymore and artists might get paid fairly.

也許這些大公司就不能再搜刮人們的藝術品了，藝術家們也可能得到公平的報酬。

But in my opinion, I'm afraid to say I don't think that's going to happen.

但在我看來，我不敢說我認為這不會發生。

If we take a brief look at history, we've got things like the banking industry in 2008.

回顧歷史，2008 年的銀行業就是如此。

They're a huge industry, lots of money, of course, that's where all the money is, and they caused an absolute catastrophe.

它們是一個巨大的產業，當然也有很多錢，所有的錢都在那裡，但它們卻造成了絕對的災難。

The banks gave out very dubious loans and regulation wasn't particularly tight back then, so they did it a lot.

銀行發放的貸款非常可疑，當時的監管也不是特別嚴格，所以他們經常這樣做。

You could even say billions of people because the shockwaves from this were felt all around the world with a global financial crisis.

甚至可以說是數十億人，因為全世界都感受到了這場全球金融危機的衝擊波。

Many people lost their homes, their savings, and it was an absolute disaster.

許多人失去了家園和積蓄，這絕對是一場災難。

What was the result of this once we got past this catastrophe?

一旦我們擺脫了這場災難，結果會怎樣呢？

Well, there was one person that went to jail.

And to be fair, that's actually unusual that anybody got any sort of justice.

平心而論，有人得到任何形式的正義，這其實是不尋常的。

This was a case where many big banks were pretty much committing fraud, and that would have taken quite a huge coordinated effort of people kind of hiding a bit of the facts here, hiding facts there, and we have one person that ended up going to jail as the kind of scapegoat for it all.

在這起案件中，許多大銀行幾乎都存在欺詐行為，這就需要人們進行巨大的協調努力，在這裡隱瞞一些事實，在那裡隱瞞一些事實，而我們有一個人最終被送進了監獄，成為了這一切的替罪羊。

This is all allegedly, please don't come after me.

Now, as a response to this, the government being the responsible things that they are, they got involved and they actually bailed out the banks, gave them loads of money, taxpayers' money, mine and yours money, and now we've got regulation so it will never happen again.

現在，作為對這一事件的迴應，作為負責任的政府，他們參與進來，實際救助了銀行，給了他們大量的錢，納稅人的錢，我和你們的錢，現在我們已經有了監管，所以這種事情不會再發生了。

And that regulation is slowly being watered down by each successive government that we have since 2008.

而自 2008 年以來，歷屆政府都在慢慢淡化這種監管。

We've got big pharmaceutical companies that make addictive painkillers, allegedly.

據稱，我們有大製藥公司生產會上癮的止痛藥。

Then there's things like the tobacco industry.

Cigarettes kill eight to nine million people a year, but you can still, with some restrictions, buy cigarettes.

香菸每年導致 800 萬至 900 萬人死亡，但在某些限制條件下，你仍然可以買到香菸。

Then you've also probably heard the stories about nasty chemical industries that have polluted rivers and communities have been killed by these things.

那麼你可能也聽說過關於骯髒的化學工業汙染河流和社區被這些東西奪去生命的故事。

It's horrible stuff, but they're big companies and unfortunately they regularly get away with these things or they get some sort of slap on the wrist, perhaps some sort of fine that affects their profits.

這是可怕的事情，但他們是大公司，不幸的是，他們經常逃脫這些事情，或者他們得到某種巴掌，也許某種影響他們利潤的罰款。

But it's very rare that these companies really get held to account or the people, in fact, that are involved in these tragedies.

但是，這些公司或參與這些悲劇的人真正被追究責任的情況卻非常罕見。

Now, I don't mean to dwell on these things or be overly negative.

現在，我不想糾纏於這些事情，也不想過於消極。

What history has taught us is that big money and big business has a huge sway in our societies.

歷史告訴我們，大財團和大企業對我們的社會有著巨大的影響力。

They have a heavy influence on our politics and therefore our laws.

他們對我們的政治有很大的影響力，是以也影響著我們的法律。

So back to the artists that have had their works scraped and copied and are in fact losing their jobs to the machines that did it.

是以，回到那些作品被抄襲和複製的藝術家身上，事實上，他們的工作正在被機器所取代。

These big companies that broke copyright law are extremely big.

這些違反版權法的大公司都非常大。

They have a lot of power, especially compared to the rights of a relatively small number of artists.

他們擁有很大的權力，尤其是與相對少數藝術家的權利相比。

And yes, much of the artist community are up in arms, but that's a small group.

是的，藝術家群體中的許多人都在奮起抗爭，但這只是一小部分人。

Perhaps there are a few supporters who are worried about their own jobs maybe.

也許有一些支持者擔心自己的工作。

And even if these court cases are successful, what will the results be?

即使這些法庭案件勝訴，結果又會如何呢？

I don't think AI will stop taking away people's jobs.

我不認為人工智能會停止奪走人們的工作。

The big companies might get a slap on the wrist and perhaps have to pay something out of their masses of profit.

大公司可能會被打一巴掌，也許還得從大量利潤中支付一些費用。

Will it stop them developing this software?

這會阻止他們開發這款軟件嗎？

The industry will actually just find a way of taking away your copyright rights.

業界實際上只是在想辦法剝奪你的版權。

And we've already started to see that with companies like Adobe saying that they own the rights to use your work that you create in their program for their AI training.

我們已經開始看到這樣的情況，Adobe 等公司表示，他們有權使用你在他們的人工智能培訓程序中創作的作品。

And yes, of course, you can opt out, but for how long?

當然，你也可以選擇退出，但能退出多久？

It seems like most of these companies are developing ways to kind of take away your copyright rights.

似乎大多數公司都在想方設法剝奪你的版權。

不幸的是，我們需要這些公司。

I need YouTube in order to show this video to you.

我需要在 YouTube 上觀看這段視頻。

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遊戲開發 2024》：好、壞與 2025 年預測 (Game Dev 2024: The Good, The Bad, & The 2025 Predictions)

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stick

eventually

inevitable