It's not been great for those people working in the industry and I don't think it's going to be good for people playing games in the future if it continues the way it is.

這對遊戲行業的從業者來說不是好事，我認為如果繼續這樣下去，對未來玩遊戲的人來說也不是好事。

So the question is what are these events and what can it tell us about what's coming in 2025 and how should we prepare for it?

那麼問題來了，這些事件是什麼，它能告訴我們 2025 年會發生什麼，我們應該如何做好準備？

So first of all let's take a look at the games industry within 2024.

是以，首先讓我們來看看 2024 年的遊戲產業。

We've had 13,000 job losses this year alone and that's compounded by the fact that we had 10,000 job losses in 2023.

僅今年一年，我們就損失了 1.3 萬個工作崗位，而 2023 年損失的 1 萬個工作崗位更是雪上加霜。

So this is the likes of Microsoft Gaming.

這就是微軟遊戲公司。

They had nearly 3,000 layoffs, Unity Technologies over 1,800, Sony, Electronic Arts, Ubisoft, Epic Games, Take-Two Interactive, Riot Games and Sega.

他們裁員近 3000 人，Unity Technologies 裁員超過 1800 人，索尼、電子藝界、育碧、Epic Games、Take-Two Interactive、Riot Games 和世嘉也都裁員。

What's really interesting to me and it seems typical of industry today and how we operate big business, each of these companies made a substantial profit last year.

讓我真正感興趣的是，這些公司去年都獲得了可觀的利潤，這似乎是當今工業的典型特徵，也是我們經營大企業的方式。

Take Microsoft Gaming, laid off 3,000 members of staff but made a $5 billion profit.

就拿微軟遊戲公司（Microsoft Gaming）來說，該公司裁員 3000 人，但卻獲得了 50 億美元的利潤。

Unity $1.2 billion, Sony Interactive Entertainment $3.5 billion, Electronic Arts $2 billion and so on.

Unity 12 億美元，索尼互動娛樂 35 億美元，電子藝界 20 億美元，等等。

So let's dig a little bit deeper and take that a bit further.

是以，讓我們再深入一點，把這個問題再往前推進一步。

The average annual salary for a game artist in the United States is $123,136.

美國遊戲美術師的平均年薪為 123,136 美元。

That actually sounds a little bit high to me perhaps it's being pulled up by some high earners there somewhere, but we'll take it that it's $123,000.

在我看來，這聽起來有點高，也許是被某些高收入者拉高了，但我們認為是 123,000 美元。

Now Microsoft Gaming in their wisdom, they laid off 3,000 members of staff.

現在，微軟遊戲公司明智地裁掉了 3000 名員工。

So that's 3,000 times 123,000.

所以是 3 000 乘以 123 000。

So you've got just under $370 million.

是以，你只有不到 3.7 億美元。

That is a percentage of their $5 billion profit is 7.4%.

佔其 50 億美元利潤的 7.4%。

I don't exactly know the employment laws in the US, but let's say there's other costs in there.

我不太清楚美國的就業法，但可以說其中還有其他費用。

Perhaps you have to put something to pension if you're an employer.

如果你是僱主，也許你必須為養老金準備一些東西。

So let's raise that to 10%.

那就把這個比例提高到 10%吧。

So 10% of their profits, this is just their profits, could go on to keeping those staff, but it's not.

是以，他們利潤的 10%，這只是他們的利潤，可以用來留住這些員工，但事實並非如此。

And unfortunately, this is a trend we see across many industries.

不幸的是，我們在許多行業都看到了這種趨勢。

These companies have to show that they're growing.

這些公司必須證明自己在成長。

It's not just okay to have good profits, they need to show that the profits are going up each year.

不僅僅是利潤好就行，還需要證明利潤每年都在增長。

Otherwise the shareholders get a bit scared and they might withdraw their money.

否則，股東們會有點害怕，他們可能會撤資。

And of course, to make sure these profits keep going up, they will cut where they can.

當然，為了確保利潤持續增長，他們會盡可能削減開支。

And in this case, it's the staff.

在這種情況下，就是工作人員。

I can't help but feel this is really counterintuitive.

我不禁覺得這實在有違直覺。

If you've got 10% of your profits that you could be putting on to staff to make these games, the product that you are selling, you'd think you'd want to keep them.

如果你有 10%的利潤可以用來僱用員工製作這些遊戲、銷售這些產品，你會認為你想留住他們。

But then I'm not a wise CEO.

但我不是一個明智的首席執行官。

So those are some of the figures.

以上就是部分數據。

And we also get reports about how difficult it is to work as an artist within the industry.

此外，我們還收到一些關於藝術家在業內工作有多麼困難的報告。

It seems artists in particular are treated quite badly, difficult conditions, huge pressure, long hours.

藝術家的待遇似乎尤其糟糕，條件艱苦、壓力巨大、工作時間長。

So people are not only losing their jobs, but they're not particularly nice jobs to start with.

是以，人們不僅失去了工作，而且一開始就不是什麼好工作。

So why is this happening?

那麼，為什麼會出現這種情況呢？

And what does it mean for us?

這對我們意味著什麼？

And what can we do about it?

我們能做些什麼呢？

Well, unfortunately, this is the common progression of putting profits before people.

不幸的是，這就是重利輕人的普遍現象。

And it's the natural progression of big corporations.

這也是大公司的自然發展規律。

They purposely bring these type of people in who are making these decisions to sell off staff because they're only concerned with profit.

他們故意把這類人招進來，讓他們做出賣掉員工的決定，因為他們只關心利潤。

And they will tell that person, your job is to make this company profitable or more profitable.

他們會告訴那個人，你的工作就是讓公司盈利或更多盈利。

And unfortunately, the inevitable treatment of workers follows.

不幸的是，工人的待遇也不可避免地隨之而來。

But wait, there's more.

但等等，還有更多。

We haven't got to the worst part of 2024 yet.

我們還沒到 2024 年最糟糕的時候。

There is, of course, the elephant in the room, which is AI.

當然，房間裡還有一頭大象，那就是人工智能。

AI has the potential to take away a lot of jobs in the industry.

人工智能有可能奪走該行業的大量工作崗位。

And of course, CEOs will always look for ways to cut costs.

當然，首席執行官們總會想方設法削減成本。

A big cost for any company is the staffing.

對於任何公司來說，人員配備都是一大成本。

So CEOs are absolutely desperate to get AI working instead of those staff members.

是以，首席執行官們絕對迫切希望讓人工智能代替那些員工工作。

The AI will work 24 hours a day and they won't complain about tough conditions or high pressure.

人工智能將每天 24 小時工作，他們不會抱怨條件艱苦或壓力大。

Now, AI certainly isn't there yet, in my opinion, but it's definitely having an impact already on the workplace.

現在，在我看來，人工智能肯定還沒到那一步，但它肯定已經對工作場所產生了影響。

I've heard of lots of freelance concept artists having less work.

我聽說很多自由概念藝術家的工作都比較少。

And the type of work that's out there seems to be cleaning up AI and it's bad job that it's done.

現在的工作類型似乎是在清理人工智能，這是個糟糕的工作。

So is there anything around the corner that's going to protect us or save us from this AI scourge?

那麼，有沒有什麼東西能保護我們或拯救我們免遭人工智能的禍害呢？

Well, you might be thinking, what about the court cases that are coming up?

你可能會想，接下來的法庭案件怎麼辦？

They're being sued for copyright infringement because they've scraped artists' work without their permission.

他們被起訴侵犯版權，因為他們在未經藝術家許可的情況下盜用了他們的作品。

And maybe these big companies won't be able to scrape people's artwork anymore and artists might get paid fairly.

也許這些大公司就不能再搜刮人們的藝術品了，藝術家們也可能得到公平的報酬。

But in my opinion, I'm afraid to say I don't think that's going to happen.

但在我看來，我不敢說我認為這不會發生。

If we take a brief look at history, we've got things like the banking industry in 2008.

回顧歷史，2008 年的銀行業就是如此。

They're a huge industry, lots of money, of course, that's where all the money is, and they caused an absolute catastrophe.

它們是一個巨大的產業，當然也有很多錢，所有的錢都在那裡，但它們卻造成了絕對的災難。

The banks gave out very dubious loans and regulation wasn't particularly tight back then, so they did it a lot.

銀行發放的貸款非常可疑，當時的監管也不是特別嚴格，所以他們經常這樣做。

This affected millions of people.

這影響了數百萬人。

You could even say billions of people because the shockwaves from this were felt all around the world with a global financial crisis.

甚至可以說是數十億人，因為全世界都感受到了這場全球金融危機的衝擊波。

Many people lost their homes, their savings, and it was an absolute disaster.

許多人失去了家園和積蓄，這絕對是一場災難。

What was the result of this once we got past this catastrophe?

一旦我們擺脫了這場災難，結果會怎樣呢？

Was there any justice?

有任何公正可言嗎？

Well, there was one person that went to jail.

有一個人進了監獄。

And to be fair, that's actually unusual that anybody got any sort of justice.

平心而論，有人得到任何形式的正義，這其實是不尋常的。

This was a case where many big banks were pretty much committing fraud, and that would have taken quite a huge coordinated effort of people kind of hiding a bit of the facts here, hiding facts there, and we have one person that ended up going to jail as the kind of scapegoat for it all.

在這起案件中，許多大銀行幾乎都存在欺詐行為，這就需要人們進行巨大的協調努力，在這裡隱瞞一些事實，在那裡隱瞞一些事實，而我們有一個人最終被送進了監獄，成為了這一切的替罪羊。

This is all allegedly, please don't come after me.

這都是據說，請不要來找我。

Now, as a response to this, the government being the responsible things that they are, they got involved and they actually bailed out the banks, gave them loads of money, taxpayers' money, mine and yours money, and now we've got regulation so it will never happen again.

現在，作為對這一事件的迴應，作為負責任的政府，他們參與進來，實際救助了銀行，給了他們大量的錢，納稅人的錢，我和你們的錢，現在我們已經有了監管，所以這種事情不會再發生了。

And that regulation is slowly being watered down by each successive government that we have since 2008.

而自 2008 年以來，歷屆政府都在慢慢淡化這種監管。

This pattern is repeated over and over.

這種模式不斷重複。

We've got big pharmaceutical companies that make addictive painkillers, allegedly.

據稱，我們有大製藥公司生產會上癮的止痛藥。

Then there's things like the tobacco industry.

還有像菸草業這樣的東西。

Cigarettes kill eight to nine million people a year, but you can still, with some restrictions, buy cigarettes.

香菸每年導致 800 萬至 900 萬人死亡，但在某些限制條件下，你仍然可以買到香菸。

Then you've also probably heard the stories about nasty chemical industries that have polluted rivers and communities have been killed by these things.

那麼你可能也聽說過關於骯髒的化學工業汙染河流和社區被這些東西奪去生命的故事。

It's horrible stuff, but they're big companies and unfortunately they regularly get away with these things or they get some sort of slap on the wrist, perhaps some sort of fine that affects their profits.

這是可怕的事情，但他們是大公司，不幸的是，他們經常逃脫這些事情，或者他們得到某種巴掌，也許某種影響他們利潤的罰款。

But it's very rare that these companies really get held to account or the people, in fact, that are involved in these tragedies.

但是，這些公司或參與這些悲劇的人真正被追究責任的情況卻非常罕見。

Now, I don't mean to dwell on these things or be overly negative.

現在，我不想糾纏於這些事情，也不想過於消極。

What history has taught us is that big money and big business has a huge sway in our societies.

歷史告訴我們，大財團和大企業對我們的社會有著巨大的影響力。

They have a heavy influence on our politics and therefore our laws.

他們對我們的政治有很大的影響力，是以也影響著我們的法律。

So back to the artists that have had their works scraped and copied and are in fact losing their jobs to the machines that did it.

是以，回到那些作品被抄襲和複製的藝術家身上，事實上，他們的工作正在被機器所取代。

These big companies that broke copyright law are extremely big.

這些違反版權法的大公司都非常大。

They have a lot of power, especially compared to the rights of a relatively small number of artists.

他們擁有很大的權力，尤其是與相對少數藝術家的權利相比。

And yes, much of the artist community are up in arms, but that's a small group.

是的，藝術家群體中的許多人都在奮起抗爭，但這只是一小部分人。

And is anybody else?

還有其他人嗎？

Perhaps there are a few supporters who are worried about their own jobs maybe.

也許有一些支持者擔心自己的工作。

And even if these court cases are successful, what will the results be?

即使這些法庭案件勝訴，結果又會如何呢？

I don't think AI will stop taking away people's jobs.

我不認為人工智能會停止奪走人們的工作。

I think it will continue to grow.

我認為它將繼續增長。

The big companies might get a slap on the wrist and perhaps have to pay something out of their masses of profit.

大公司可能會被打一巴掌，也許還得從大量利潤中支付一些費用。

Will it stop them developing this software?

這會阻止他們開發這款軟件嗎？

I don't think so.

我不這麼認為。

The industry will actually just find a way of taking away your copyright rights.

業界實際上只是在想辦法剝奪你的版權。

And we've already started to see that with companies like Adobe saying that they own the rights to use your work that you create in their program for their AI training.

我們已經開始看到這樣的情況，Adobe 等公司表示，他們有權使用你在他們的人工智能培訓程序中創作的作品。

And yes, of course, you can opt out, but for how long?

當然，你也可以選擇退出，但能退出多久？

It seems like most of these companies are developing ways to kind of take away your copyright rights.

似乎大多數公司都在想方設法剝奪你的版權。

Unfortunately, we need these companies.

不幸的是，我們需要這些公司。

I need YouTube in order to show this video to you.

我需要在 YouTube 上觀看這段視頻。

And YouTube, to a degree, can say what they like in the rights that I have.

在某種程度上，YouTube 可以對我擁有的權利說三道四。

So I'm fairly confident that these companies will keep doing what they're doing and AI will therefore get better and better.

是以，我相當有信心，這些公司會繼續做他們正在做的事情，人工智能也會是以變得越來越好。

It's certainly not there yet for the more complex tasks and it needs quite a lot of human intervention to help it along and get it to a point where it's even passable.

當然，它還不能完成更復雜的任務，需要大量的人工干預來幫助它完成任務，使其達到甚至合格的程度。

But it will steadily take more and more jobs away from the industry.

但是，它將逐步奪走該行業越來越多的工作崗位。

There will be some created by it, but not as many as taken away, in my opinion.

在我看來，會有一些人是以而產生，但不會像被奪走的那麼多。

So this is all sounding a bit doom and gloom.

是以，這一切聽起來都有點悲觀。

I'm trying to be pragmatic and realistic here.

我在這裡努力做到務實和現實。

So are there any positives?

那麼有什麼積極因素嗎？

And what can we do about this situation that we're in?

我們能為我們所處的這種情況做些什麼呢？

Well, I believe there is a way we can respond.

好吧，我相信我們有辦法做出迴應。

It's not necessarily fighting back, but it's adapting to these changes that are happening around us.

它不一定是在反抗，而是在適應我們周圍發生的這些變化。

Now, don't get me wrong, you can fight back.

現在，別誤會我的意思，你可以反擊。

You can unionize and gather together as people and kind of fight the power, as it were.

你們可以組織工會，聚集在一起，與權力作鬥爭。

And I do believe that's important.

我相信這一點很重要。

But I do also think we need to be aware and ready for the changes that will inevitably happen.

但我也認為，我們需要意識到並準備好迎接不可避免的變化。

So I do think these tumultuous changes will continue into 2025, but I do have some advice for beginners or people starting a career out there, or maybe in the first run of their journey.

是以，我認為這些動盪的變化將持續到 2025 年，但我確實有一些建議給初學者或剛開始工作的人，或者是處於人生旅途起步階段的人。

So my advice would be this.

是以，我的建議是

Most importantly, don't give up on your dream.

最重要的是，不要放棄你的夢想。

If you are desperate to become a game artist, then continue along with that.

如果你渴望成為一名遊戲藝術家，那就繼續努力吧。

But the way I would approach the following years is as follows.

不過，我對接下來幾年的工作計劃如下。

Firstly, I would still recommend a good grasp of the basic and all the different skills that you need.

首先，我還是建議大家掌握好基礎知識和所需的各種技能。

For example, AI has still not come up with a solution for retopology.

例如，人工智能還沒有找到重拓撲的解決方案。

And retopology is still very important within the 3D modelling world.

在三維建模領域，再拓撲仍然非常重要。

And let's say AI did figure out retopology, you'd still need an understanding of retopology in order to check that it's got it right.

假設人工智能真的能弄懂再拓撲學，你仍然需要了解再拓撲學，以便檢查它是否正確。

And that's the same with all these different skills.

所有這些不同的技能都是一樣的。

The more you know, the more you will be able to see whether AI is doing these things correctly or not, or be able to guide the AI systems, if you have to end up working with them, into the right pathway and into what is good art.

你知道得越多，就越能看清人工智能在做這些事情時是否正確，或者說，如果你最終不得不與人工智能系統合作，你就越能引導人工智能系統走向正確的道路，走向什麼是好的藝術。

And that's if you are working with AI.

這還是在使用人工智能的情況下。

You may not be working with AI for a long time to come because it may not get that last bit that seems to be quite tricky, which is from AI artist to real artist, if we can call it that.

在未來很長一段時間內，你可能都不會與人工智能合作，因為它可能無法完成最後一點，也就是從人工智能藝術家到真正的藝術家，如果我們可以這麼稱呼的話，這一點似乎相當棘手。

So learn lots of different skills, as many as you can, so you understand the different parts of the industry.

是以，要儘可能多地學習不同的技能，以便了解行業的不同部分。

Practice your drawing, practice your 3D modelling, practice your hard surface modelling and so forth.

練習繪畫、練習三維建模、練習硬表面建模等等。

Getting a good grasp of all the different skills, I think will be really important, so you can be adaptable and perhaps move into the different areas that are needed.

我認為，熟練掌握所有不同的技能非常重要，這樣你才能適應並進入所需的不同領域。

Now personally, and this might be for a different video, but I wouldn't actually suggest going to college or university.

就我個人而言，這可能是為了拍攝不同的視頻，但我其實並不建議去上大專或大學。

Now that does depend a little bit on your location, in fact, and your general situation.

事實上，這取決於你的地理位置和你的總體情況。

But I think if it's going to cost you a lot of money to do that, I'd rather be spending it on smaller, shorter courses and equipment that I can use that will do the job, and maybe I can get a few jobs whilst I'm learning.

但我認為，如果要花很多錢來做這件事，我寧願把錢花在規模較小、時間較短的課程和設備上，我可以用這些設備來完成工作，也許我還能在學習的同時找到幾份工作。

And along with that, and probably the most important part, I think, is instead of having big dreams to work for something like Disney or Pixar, then instead look at thinking about smaller studios, the indie studios.

與此同時，我認為最重要的一點是，不要有為迪斯尼或皮克斯等公司工作的遠大夢想，而是要考慮小型工作室，即獨立工作室。

And even better than this, look to start making your own indie games in maybe a team, make connections, collaborate with people and different artists, different developers.

比這更好的是，開始製作自己的獨立遊戲，也許是一個團隊，建立聯繫，與人合作，與不同的藝術家、不同的開發者合作。

Now I'm not saying this is easy at all, and lots of the time, these sort of people that are doing this have jobs on the side, but that can kind of be true for people at university or college.

我並不是說這樣做很容易，很多時候，這樣做的人都有兼職工作，但對於大學或學院裡的人來說，這也可能是真的。

They have to have a side job to support themselves whilst they're going through studying.

在學習期間，他們必須有一份副業來養活自己。

And yes, it's still difficult.

是的，這仍然很困難。

You might not get there for a few years, but you will learn a huge amount by working in a team with these different people, collaborating, failing lots.

你可能幾年後才能達到這個目標，但通過與這些不同的人在一個團隊中工作、合作、失敗，你會學到很多東西。

But I really think that gives you the best chance to get into the industry.

但我真的認為，這是你進入這個行業的最佳機會。

You do still need to invest in yourselves and obviously taking courses online.

你們仍然需要為自己投資，顯然也需要在線學習課程。

I know that it sounds like I would say that because I produce courses online, but I really think and I really do believe in those.

我知道，這聽起來像是我會這麼說，因為我在網上製作課程，但我真的認為，我真的相信這些。

And even a short program that you can take online rather than going off to university, I think that's a better plan and more bang for your buck as it were.

即使是一個短期課程，你也可以在網上學習，而不是去上大學，我認為這是一個更好的計劃，也更物有所值。

I also think that those courses are more likely to be up to date because people are regularly releasing these courses and therefore you're more adaptable to the changes in the industry.

我還認為，這些課程更有可能是最新的，因為人們會定期發佈這些課程，是以你更能適應行業的變化。

You may also choose to try and use AI and learn AI.

您也可以選擇嘗試使用人工智能和學習人工智能。

I would understand that you might get a lot of stick from the artist community for doing that, but it's likely to be part of your journey as you go through because it's inevitable unfortunately.

我可以理解，你這樣做可能會受到藝術家群體的指責，但這很可能是你人生旅途的一部分，因為不幸的是，這是不可避免的。

You're likely to also find that it's not quite there yet and you need that understanding of the basics in order to use it properly or get the most out of it.

你也可能會發現，它還沒有完全成熟，你需要了解基礎知識，才能正確使用它或最大限度地利用它。

You might choose not to use AI and that's commendable, but an understanding of AI I think will be important.

您可以選擇不使用人工智能，這值得稱讚，但我認為了解人工智能非常重要。

Generally what I'm trying to encourage is that you take control of your situation rather than thinking I'm going to try and aim for this big company that has a choice of thousands of artists and only two positions which might end up being one position eventually.

一般來說，我想鼓勵的是，你要控制好自己的狀況，而不是想著我要去一家大公司，因為這家公司有成千上萬的藝術家可供選擇，而且只有兩個職位，最終可能只有一個職位。

You're not really in control there.

你並不能真正掌控一切。

If you make your own indie studio, then you are in control.

如果你創建了自己的獨立工作室，那麼你就能掌控一切。

If you join a group of people who are like-minded on the similar level that you are, then you are building something together.

如果你加入的是一群與你志同道合的人，那麼你們就是在共同創造一些東西。

And there are success stories, the big ones being Manor Lords, Palworld, Wukong, but there are of course also thousands that are unsuccessful.

也有成功的案例，主要有莊園主、帕爾世界、悟空，當然也有成千上萬個不成功的案例。

But I do think that if you stick with it and you're passionate about it and understand that there will be these difficulties down the road, you will eventually get something out of the industry and you have your best chance.