Up until now, most of us have only really seen the effects of this in our grocery bill.

到目前為止，我們中的大多數人還只是從我們的雜貨賬單中看到了這種影響。

But then, on January 6th, someone in Louisiana died.

但是，1 月 6 日，路易斯安那州有人死了。

It was the first reported human death from avian flu in the United States, which is pretty alarming.

這是美國首次報告有人死於禽流感，令人震驚。

But the TLDR here is you don't actually have to panic.

但總而言之，你其實不必驚慌。

So far, there have only been 67 human cases in the United States, and infections are typically very mild.

迄今為止，美國只有 67 例人類感染病例，感染程度通常非常輕微。

It's unlikely this will be another COVID.

這不太可能是另一個 COVID。

And maybe that's all you care to know.

也許你只想知道這些。

That being said, avian flu isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

儘管如此，禽流感不會很快消失。

It's been found in every U.S. state and on every continent except Australia.

美國各州和除澳洲以外的各大洲都發現了這種植物。

Public health experts are concerned, because there is a chance this could get worse.

公共衛生專家對此表示擔憂，因為情況有可能變得更糟。

So what I wanted to know was this, if we're not worried now, is there a point when we should be?

所以，我想知道的是，如果我們現在不擔心，是否到了應該擔心的時候？

Avian flu viruses are naturally found in waterfowl, like geese or ducks.

禽流感病毒天然存在於鵝或鴨等水禽體內。

H5N1, the type of avian flu circulating right now, was first identified in geese in 1996 in China.

目前流行的 H5N1 型禽流感是 1996 年在中國的鵝身上首次發現的。

In 2020, a variant of that original strain was found in wild birds in Europe.

2020 年，在歐洲的野生鳥類中發現了該原始菌株的變種。

By late 2021, it was in the U.S. and Canada.

到 2021 年底，它已進入美國和加拿大。

Typically, a duck, goose, or other natural host shows no symptoms, but can spread the virus through dropping saliva or mucus.

通常情況下，鴨、鵝或其他自然宿主不會出現任何症狀，但會通過唾液或粘液傳播病毒。

When an infected bird comes in contact with poultry is when we start to see disease.

當受感染的鳥類與家禽接觸時，我們就開始看到疾病。

And this is usually categorized in one of two ways.

這通常分為兩種情況。

The first is low pathogenicity, which shows very little sign of illness.

第一種是低致病性，很少表現出發病跡象。

Maybe a chicken will lay less eggs or stop laying eggs altogether.

也許雞會少下蛋或完全不下蛋。

The second is high pathogenicity, which is incredibly infectious and can result in 100% death rate.

其次是高致病性，傳染性極強，死亡率可達 100%。

You can guess which one we're currently dealing with.

你可以猜猜我們現在正在處理的是哪一個。

When either version of avian flu turns up on poultry farms, it has devastating effects.

無論是哪一種禽流感，一旦在家禽養殖場出現，都會造成毀滅性的影響。

Farmers are often forced to cull all animals to prevent further spread. 4.2 million chickens on Iowa egg farms as of last July, 100,000 ducks on Long Island in January, another million chickens in the United Kingdom.

農場主往往被迫宰殺所有動物，以防止進一步傳播。截至去年 7 月，愛荷華州蛋雞養殖場有 420 萬隻雞，1 月份長島有 10 萬隻鴨，英國也有 100 萬隻雞。

The economic loss to farmers is in the billions.

農民的經濟損失高達數十億美元。

But over 100 million dead domesticated birds later and the virus is still spreading.

但是，一億多隻馴養鳥類死亡之後，病毒仍在傳播。

The reason we're concerned now about this particular avian flu is that it is spilling over more often than we see other avian flu viruses do.

我們現在之所以擔心這種特殊的禽流感，是因為它比我們看到的其他禽流感病毒更容易擴散。

This particular gene constellation seems to be causing much more ability to spread across species areas.

這種特殊的基因群似乎導致跨物種區域擴散的能力大大增強。

Everybody I spoke to for this story really wanted to drive home this point.

我在採訪中接觸到的每個人都很想強調這一點。

This virus has affected an overwhelming diversity of animals.

這種病毒影響的動物種類繁多。

Experts are calling it panzootic, a pandemic among animals.

專家們稱其為泛獸疫，即動物間的大流行病。

It's been detected in nearly 500 species of birds worldwide, including the endangered California condor, and at least 70 species of mammals, seals, minks, foxes.

在全球近 500 種鳥類（包括瀕臨滅絕的加州禿鷹）和至少 70 種哺乳動物（海豹、水貂、狐狸）中都檢測到了這種病毒。

It's killed sea lions by the thousands, bears and pigs and dolphins, otters, ferrets and cats, and most recently, dairy cows, which is weird and concerning for two main reasons.

它殺死了成千上萬的海獅、熊、豬、海豚、水獺、雪貂和貓，最近還殺死了奶牛。

One, where it's being found in the cow, influenza viruses, for humans, tends to be a respiratory pathogen.

其一，在奶牛身上發現的流感病毒，對人類來說，往往是一種呼吸道病原體。

This virus in particular, it's replicating in a mammalian species in a tissue site that's not common for influenza.

特別是這種病毒，它在哺乳動物的組織部位進行復制，而這種組織部位在流感中並不常見。

Avian flu is being found in especially high levels in milk.

禽流感在牛奶中的含量特別高。

Luckily, pasteurization, the simple process of heating milk before packaging it, keeps consumers safe from exactly this sort of thing.

幸運的是，巴氏殺菌法，即在牛奶包裝前對其進行加熱的簡單過程，可以使消費者免受此類事件的傷害。

Now, the second problem is more obvious.

現在，第二個問題更加明顯。

Avian flu in dairy cows brings avian flu closer to humans, but that is a bigger problem than a person just getting sick.

奶牛感染禽流感使禽流感更接近人類，但這是一個比人生病更大的問題。

Here's why.

原因就在這裡。

The flu virus changes in two ways, mutation and reassortment.

流感病毒的變化有兩種方式，即變異和重組。

The mutation is sort of like what happens every year with seasonal flu viruses.

這種變異有點像每年發生的季節性流感病毒。

Every year, as the virus replicates in us, the virus will change.

隨著病毒在我們體內的複製，病毒每年都會發生變化。

This is the new version of the same virus.

這是同一病毒的新版本。

It just made a mistake while replicating itself.

它只是在複製自己時犯了一個錯誤。

Reassortment, on the other hand, is when two different viruses meet in a cell and swap genetic material.

另一方面，重配是指兩種不同的病毒在細胞中相遇並交換遺傳物質。

Let's say this virus infected a human during flu season, and you have sick kids at home and all of a sudden you also have human seasonal flu, and you have this H5N1 because you work on a dairy farm.

假設這種病毒在流感季節感染了人類，你家裡有生病的孩子，突然間你也患上了人類季節性流感，而你因為在奶牛場工作而感染了這種 H5N1 病毒。

Now, all of those genomes, while distinct, are related, right?

現在，所有這些基因組雖然各不相同，但都是相關的，對嗎？

They're all influenza.

它們都是流感。

And they can reassort or intermingle within that cell and generate new viruses.

它們可以在細胞內重新組合或交配，產生新的病毒。

Reassortment of avian flu resulted in two pandemics, in 1957 and 1968.

禽流感的重配導致了 1957 年和 1968 年的兩次大流行。

And reassortment of swine flu resulted in the 2009 swine flu pandemic.

而豬流感的重組導致了 2009 年的豬流感大流行。

The reason we worry about that so much is that seasonal influenza viruses are epidemiologically very successful.

我們之所以如此擔心，是因為季節性流感病毒在流行病學上非常成功。

They spread so easily from person to person.

它們很容易在人與人之間傳播。

Now, what does it take for a virus to cause a pandemic?

那麼，病毒要怎樣才能引起大流行呢？

You have to have a virus that is novel, that infects humans and causes disease.

你必須有一種能感染人類並導致疾病的新型病毒。

The population has to be susceptible.

人口必須是易感人群。

The way we usually think about it, it means that you don't have antibodies to that subtype.

我們通常認為，這意味著你沒有該亞型的抗體。

But very importantly, the virus has to be able to spread efficiently from person to person through sustained chains of community transmission.

但非常重要的是，病毒必須能夠通過持續的社區傳播鏈在人與人之間有效傳播。

This is generally what public health experts are on the lookout for, and why monitoring this virus is really important.

這通常是公共衛生專家要警惕的，也是為什麼監測這種病毒非常重要的原因。

So what the H5N1 viruses have are that they're novel, they infect people, they cause disease, and the population is susceptible.

是以，H5N1 病毒的特點是新穎、能感染人、能致病、人群易感。

But they have not yet demonstrated the ability to spread efficiently from person to person.

但它們還沒有顯示出在人與人之間有效傳播的能力。

If this virus starts spreading between humans, then our problems have extended beyond dead birds and egg prices.

如果這種病毒開始在人類之間傳播，那麼我們的問題就不僅僅是死鳥和雞蛋價格了。

Luckily, there are still a few other things on our side here.

幸運的是，我們還有其他一些有利條件。

For one, the disease so far is mild in humans, and two, reassortment in humans is way less likely than it is in pigs or birds for some reason.

其一，到目前為止，人類的病情還比較輕微；其二，由於某種原因，人類發生重配的可能性遠遠低於豬或鳥類。

As for vaccines, our seasonal flu shot is very specific, so it's unlikely it will give us any immunity to this.

至於疫苗，我們的季節性流感疫苗非常特殊，是以不太可能給我們帶來任何免疫力。

However, previous exposure to the flu virus might give us a slight edge.

不過，以前接觸過流感病毒可能會讓我們略勝一籌。

The people that should be more concerned and more proactive are the ones that are in public health, decision-making and public health funding and so on.

應該更加關注和更加積極主動的人是那些從事公共衛生、決策和公共衛生籌資等工作的人。

The best we can do right now is be aware of what's happening.

我們現在能做的就是了解正在發生的事情。

As it stands, the avian flu is getting a lot of chances to change and become a bigger problem for humans.

從目前的情況來看，禽流感有很多機會發生變化，成為人類面臨的更大問題。

We haven't stopped it yet.

我們還沒有阻止它。

I'm far less certain that we can put the genie back in the body.

我更不確定我們能否把精靈放回體內。

Well, what a comforting way to end a video after telling you not to panic.

好吧，在告訴你不要驚慌之後，以這樣的方式結束一段視頻真是令人欣慰。

Anyway, I sincerely hope that this was helpful.

總之，我衷心希望這篇文章對你有所幫助。

After two years of following this story and thinking of all the different ways I could get over it, I ultimately just landed here, a piece that tries to answer your biggest questions without freaking you out too much.

兩年來，我一直在關注這個故事，也想過各種不同的方法來克服它，最終我在這裡找到了答案，這篇文章試圖回答你最大的問題，但又不會讓你太抓狂。

I've been at Vox for over seven years, and I've come to realize that I really try to answer two types of questions.

我在 Vox 工作了七年多，我逐漸意識到，我真正要回答的問題有兩類。

The dire ones that feel like they need answering right now, and some that just spark curiosity to remind us that, sure, things are chaotic, but the world is also wild and full of wonder.

有些是需要馬上回答的問題，有些則只是激發我們的好奇心，提醒我們，當然，事情是混亂的，但世界也是狂野的，充滿了奇蹟。

If you like that mission and want to help, you can join our membership program at vox.com slash memberships.

如果您喜歡這一使命並希望提供幫助，可以登錄 vox.com slash memberships 加入我們的會員計劃。

Thanks for being here.

感謝您的光臨。

I'm your host, Vox Machina.

我是主持人Vox Machina。