I've been a financial advisor for over 20 years, so I've had a front row seat and get to see from the institutional side how the investment industry works.

我已經做了 20 多年的財務顧問，所以我一直坐在前排，從機構的角度瞭解投資行業是如何運作的。

And oftentimes products are made to be sold.

很多時候，產品的生產就是為了銷售。

They're not made to be bought.

它們不是用來買的。

And what I mean by that is the industry only tells you the good stuff and not the bad stuff.

我的意思是，這個行業只告訴你好話，不告訴你壞話。

And I think we all need to know both sides, the pros and the cons on everything.

我認為，我們都需要了解事情的正反兩面。

So there's plenty that the investment industry doesn't tell us about.

是以，投資行業還有很多事情沒有告訴我們。

But this is one where I think it's an oversight and I think the intentions are not nefarious.

但我認為這是一個疏忽，而且我認為其意圖並不邪惡。

They're not trying to keep the bad news from us.

他們並不想對我們隱瞞壞消息。

And so the big secret, the big lie has to do with compounding and the power of compounding.

是以，最大的祕密、最大的謊言與複利和複利的力量有關。

I don't think the power of compounding is as strong as most people think.

我認為複利的力量並不像大多數人想象的那麼強大。

And here's why.

原因就在這裡。

Let's start with the basics.

讓我們從最基本的開始。

If we save $10,000 a month, as this chart shows, I'm sorry, $10,000 a year and we get 7% a year on that money.

如果我們每月節省 10,000 美元，如圖所示，對不起，是每年節省 10,000 美元，我們每年的收益率為 7%。

Now, you're not going to get that in a bank account.

現在，你不可能在銀行賬戶中得到這些。

You're going to have to have that invested in stocks and bonds.

你必須把這筆錢投資在股票和債券上。

And if we get that 7% a year, over 30 years, we're going to have ended up saving actually a little over a million dollars, which sounds great.

如果每年能節省 7%，30 年下來，我們就能節省 100 多萬美元，聽起來不錯。

So what's the problem with that?

這有什麼問題嗎？

Well, compounding doesn't work so simply.

其實，複利並不是這麼簡單就能起作用的。

There's some things that we all need to know.

有些事情我們都需要知道。

And the first one is just like compounding starts growing more quickly in our favor.

第一種就像複利一樣，開始對我們更有利地快速增長。

You know what?

你知道嗎？

Inflation is a headwind pushing against this.

通脹是阻礙通脹的逆風。

And unfortunately, the impact of inflation is enormous over a 30 year period.

不幸的是，通貨膨脹對 30 年的影響是巨大的。

Let's take that million dollars.

就拿那一百萬美元來說吧。

Let's put it into an inflation calculator.

讓我們用通貨膨脹計算器來計算一下。

So a million dollars with an inflation rate of 3% over 30 years.

是以，一百萬美元在 30 年內的通貨膨脹率為 3%。

Guess how much money it is in today's dollars.

猜一猜，按現在的美元計算是多少錢？

Yes, the good news is you have a million dollars, but it's only going to feel like about $412,000. $411,986.76.

是的，好消息是你有一百萬美元，但感覺上只有 412,000 美元。$411,986.76.

OK, so inflation is really you really have less than half the money.

好吧，那麼通貨膨脹就是你真的只有不到一半的錢了。

You have about 40% of the money that we all think we have when we say we have a million dollars.

當我們說自己有一百萬美元時，你擁有的錢大約是我們自認為擁有的錢的 40%。

OK, so that's that's the first one.

好了，這是第一個。

The second one is the impact of fees on all of this.

其次是收費對這一切的影響。

So the first calculation I said you'd have a little over a million dollars, you'd actually have a million and $23,000.

所以，我第一次計算時說你會有一百萬美元多一點，實際上你會有一百萬零兩萬三千美元。

And that's if over 30 years you save $10,000 a year at 7%.

如果在 30 年裡，你每年按 7% 的利率儲蓄 10,000 美元，那麼就能做到這一點。

It compounds daily.

它每天都在複雜化。

You can see what that ends up being.

你可以看到最終的結果。

But what if we put fees on this and what if we just put a small fee like one tenth of 1%?

但是，如果我們對此收取費用，而且只是收取 1%的十分之一這樣的小額費用呢？

So instead of getting 7%, you get 6.9%.

是以，你得到的不是 7%，而是 6.9%。

Well, you can see there now you're really close to a million dollars.

好了，你現在可以看到你真的接近一百萬美元了。

Now you're just a tad over a million dollars.

現在，你的身價剛剛超過一百萬美元。

And unfortunately, this gets worse.

不幸的是，情況越來越糟。

If you put a half a percent fee on it, it takes more and more money away from you.

如果加收半成費用，就會從你身上拿走越來越多的錢。

So the first thing is inflation.

是以，第一件事就是通貨膨脹。

The second one is fees.

第二個是費用。

And the third one, believe it or not, the biggest risk to all of us is our own behavior.

第三，信不信由你，我們所有人面臨的最大風險就是我們自己的行為。

You know, it'd be one thing if we could put money into an account and leave it in the account and never have to worry about up years and down years.

要知道，如果我們能把錢存入一個賬戶，然後把它留在賬戶裡，永遠不用擔心漲年和跌年，那是一回事。

But there's going to be over a 30 year period.

但這將持續 30 年。

There's there's no guarantees in the stock market.

股票市場是沒有保障的。

But one that I'm highly confident in is over a 30 year period, there's going to be at least one, probably multiple years that are going to be challenging.

但有一點我非常有信心，那就是在 30 年的時間裡，至少會有一年，甚至可能是很多年會面臨挑戰。

The market's going to be you've saved up $500,000.

市場會認為你已經存了 50 萬美元。

In this in this account.

在這個賬戶中。

So now you're halfway to your goal of a million dollars.

現在，你離一百萬美元的目標只差一半了。

And now all of a sudden the stock market reaches a rough patch, something as recently as like 2022, where the stock market and the bond portfolios were down about 20 percent, a portfolio of 50 percent stocks, 50 percent bonds, depending on how they're invested.

現在，股市突然陷入困境，就在最近的 2022 年，股市和債券投資組合下跌了約 20%，投資組合中 50% 是股票，50% 是債券，這取決於他們的投資方式。

It wasn't unusual to see that portfolio down 20 percent.

投資組合下跌 20% 並不稀奇。

Well, that's $100,000.

那就是 10 萬美元。

It took you 10 years saving $10,000 a year to save up $100,000, actually just eight years because of the power of compounding.

你花了 10 年時間，每年存 1 萬美元，實際上只用了 8 年時間，因為複利的力量。

So human behavior and are we going to be able to stay the course?

那麼，人類的行為以及我們能否堅持到底？

So that's that's another challenge that I want you to be aware of.

所以，這是我希望你們注意的另一個挑戰。

And then the other one is taxes.

另一個是稅收。

You know, what's what's the tax rate?

稅率是多少？

I mean, even if all you do is stick this in an index fund and let it grow on its own, there's still likely going to be some embedded trades that take place just to balance out that index and to keep it the right percentages.

我的意思是，即使你只是把它放在指數基金裡，讓它自己成長，也很可能會有一些嵌入式交易發生，以平衡指數並保持適當的百分比。

So are you going to have to pay tax on that?

那麼，你需要為此繳稅嗎？

And capital gains tax in the United States for many people, believe it or not, for many folks is going to be zero percent for for others.

信不信由你，在美國，許多人的資本利得稅將為零，其他人的資本利得稅將為零。

It's going to be closer to 15 or 20 percent.

會接近 15%或 20%。

So what about the taxes?

那麼稅收又是怎麼回事呢？

And when you include all of this in into the compounding, the story of compounding is just not as compelling as what people said.

當你把這些都算進複利中時，複利的故事就不像人們說的那樣引人入勝了。

Now, I want to go back to that main chart and I want to talk about another really big risk that is very, very seldom talked about.

現在，我想回到主圖表，談談另一個很少被提及的巨大風險。

So let's go back to the chart where we're saving money.

所以，讓我們回到圖表上，看看我們在哪裡省錢。

And this is what I want to talk about now is some called sequence of return risk.

這就是我現在要談的所謂的收益序列風險。

And what that means is, you know, let's say in this 30 year period, we're going to have two years where the market's going to be up.

這意味著，假設在這 30 年中，有兩年市場會上漲。

I'm just making up a number.

我只是編了個數字。

The market's going to be up 30 percent in a 12 month period.

市場將在 12 個月內上漲 30%。

Would you rather have those two years towards the end?

你願意在最後那兩年再去嗎？

Or would you rather get those two years of 30 percent returns in the first two years?

或者，你更願意在頭兩年獲得 30% 的回報？

It's it actually makes a big difference if we get it towards the end after we've saved up money, after it's had a chance to grow.

實際上，如果我們在攢錢之後，在它有機會成長之後，在最後得到它，情況就會大不一樣。

Let's say we have $800,000 and we get a year where the stock market's up 30 percent.

假設我們有 80 萬美元，今年股市上漲了 30%。

And now maybe instead of a 7 percent return, maybe we get a 25 percent return.

現在，也許我們的回報率不是 7%，而是 25%。

I'm assuming you've got some bonds in the portfolio.

我猜你的投資組合裡有一些債券。

It's not just all stocks.

不僅僅是所有股票。

Well, an $800,000, a 25 percent return.

嗯，80 萬美元，25% 的回報率。

Boom, you're there.

嘭，你到了。

So how long does it take you to get to $800,000?

那麼，你需要多長時間才能達到 80 萬美元？

It's towards the end.

快結束了。

But you've you've shortcutted that last, let's call it three years, that last four years that normally would have taken you to get from $800,000 to a million.

但你已經縮短了從 80 萬美元到 100 萬美元所需的最後三年或最後四年的時間。

So you want those good returns when the value is the highest.

是以，你希望在價值最高的時候獲得豐厚的回報。

Conversely, let's say there's going to be two year period, two separate years where each year there's a negative 30 percent return.

相反，假設有兩年時間，這兩年每年的回報率都是負 30%。

What do you think?

你怎麼看？

Do you want those negative returns towards the end or do you want them towards the beginning?

你是希望負收益出現在最後，還是希望負收益出現在開始？

In this case, you don't want them at the end, because if you got a return like that, when you had $800,000, well, you're going to give up almost $250,000, $240,000.

在這種情況下，你不希望他們在最後，因為如果你得到了這樣的回報，當你有 80 萬美元時，好了，你將放棄近 25 萬美元，24 萬美元。

Or let's just say it's a negative 25 percent return.

或者就說是負 25% 的回報率。

So we keep the numbers the same.

是以，我們保持數字不變。

You're going to give up $200,000.

你要放棄 20 萬美元。

You're going to lose $200,000.

你會損失 20 萬美元。

And remember, that first $100,000 took almost eight years to get.

別忘了，這第一筆 10 萬美元可是花了將近 8 年時間才籌到的。

So it's just human nature to think, you know, that's 12, 15, 16 years of my work that was wiped out in a 12 month period.

所以，人的天性就是會想，你知道，我 12 年、15 年、16 年的心血就這樣在 12 個月內毀於一旦。

So we want those negative returns early.

是以，我們希望儘早獲得負收益。

But here's the bad news.

但壞消息是

We don't get to control when we get the good returns and when we get the negative returns.

我們無法控制何時獲得好的回報，何時獲得負回報。

It just just kind of happens.

它就這麼發生了。

And we'd love to be able to predict that and say, well, you know, as I record this, the stock market overall over the last nine, 12 months has done well.

我們很希望能夠預測到這一點，然後說，好吧，你知道，在我記錄這一切的時候，股市在過去的 9 個月或 12 個月裡整體表現不錯。

It was just recently it was posting all time highs.

就在不久前，它還創下了歷史新高。

It's hit some speed bumps here recently.

最近這裡遇到了一些減速帶。

But it was up over a nine month period about 30 percent.

但在九個月的時間裡，它增長了約 30%。

That's a big, big move.

這是一個很大很大的舉動。

And the stock prices were already by historical norms relatively expensive.

而按照歷史標準，股票價格已經相對昂貴。

So it's it's let's just say it's impossible to determine when we're going to have a pullback from that.

是以，我們無法確定何時會出現回調。

So there is a luck component.

是以，這其中也有運氣的成分。

If you're lucky and you get those negative years early on, as long as they don't derail your plans.

如果你運氣好，早早地度過了那些消極的歲月，只要它們沒有破壞你的計劃。

Now, you know, it doesn't work this way.

現在，你知道了，事情不是這樣的。

You don't know until hindsight.

事後才能知道。

But in what I've laid out, now you've got those bad years out of the way and you've got some nice growth years in front of you.

但是，按照我的計劃，現在你已經擺脫了那些糟糕的年份，你將迎來美好的發展時期。

But we don't know that there could be another 30 percent drop in there.

但我們不知道其中是否會再下降 30%。

So it's the sequence of return risk.

這就是收益序列風險。

Are you lucky when you get the negative, the bad negative return days?

當你遇到負收益、負收益不好的日子時，你幸運嗎？

Again, there are no guarantees, but I'm very confident that over a 30 year period, there will be years that are challenging from a return standpoint.

同樣，我也無法保證，但我非常有信心，在 30 年的時間裡，從回報的角度來看，會有一些年份是具有挑戰性的。

So it has to do with the sequence of return.

是以，這與返回的順序有關。

So so those are the problems.

這些就是問題所在。

That's kind of the big secret.

這就是最大的祕密。

The lie that the industry has given us and the other the other thing, I don't want you to have a secret from yourself.

我不希望你對自己有什麼祕密。

And so just thinking about what's the right time for you personally to retire, which is why I made this video up here.

是以，我在考慮什麼是你個人退休的最佳時機，這也是我製作這段視頻的原因。

Big mistake.

大錯特錯。

Retiring at 65.

65 歲退休。

Maybe you should retire before 65.

也許你應該在 65 歲之前退休。