Name: Meta 的支出計劃和 Alphabet 的廣告前景 (Meta's Spending Plans and Alphabet's Ad Outlook)
Uploaded: 2025-01-31T21:46:56.000Z
Duration: 4 min 16 s

This is a make or break year for reality labs.

今年是現實實驗室的成敗之年。

OK, what it tells you is for a lot of money to reality.

好吧，它告訴你的是很多錢的現實。

And they are still going to lose 20 billion, another 20 billion dollars this year.

而他們今年仍將損失 200 億美元，再損失 200 億美元。

So imagine how high the stock would be if you put a, you know, even a 15 times multiple on that 20 billion that they are losing.

是以，試想一下，如果把他們虧損的 200 億美元估算成 15 倍的倍數，股價會有多高。

I mean, the stock would be easily 10 percent higher.

我的意思是，股價會輕鬆上漲 10%。

But the fact that he said this is make or break here, which means this is not going to be a recurring loss.

但事實上，他說這是成敗的關鍵，這意味著這不會是一個經常性的損失。

So either this year, this thing takes off or they're going to stop investing 20 billion dollars.

所以，要麼今年這東西起飛，要麼他們就停止投資 200 億美元。

And I think so that's a positive for the market.

Google, they report earnings, I think, Tuesday.

我的意思是，廣告趨勢似乎很穩定。

Probably, I think both Meta and Google benefited from the TikTok uncertainty.

也許，我認為 Meta 和谷歌都從 TikTok 的不確定性中受益了。

Clearly, the ad dollars are moving away from TikTok as a platform.

很明顯，廣告費用正在遠離 TikTok 這個平臺。

And I think YouTube should show an acceleration in growth.

我認為，YouTube 的增長速度應該會加快。

So search is where, you know, everyone is kind of cynical about Google maintaining their 90 percent search.

是以，搜索是每個人對谷歌保持其 90% 搜索份額的一種嘲諷。

So how do you how do you think that plays out?

我的意思是，人工智能、哈拉、GPT？

Look, I mean, in the end, you know, the search market is expanding.

聽著，我的意思是，歸根結底，搜索市場在不斷擴大。

Because of generative AI, we will be searching for more things because the prompts are all over the place.

因為有了生成式人工智能，我們將搜索到更多的東西，因為提示都在這裡。

So instead of going to Google.com, there are prompts everywhere where we can do searches.

是以，我們不用再去 Google.com，而是可以通過隨處可見的提示進行搜索。

Now, Google's problem is they have the 90 percent plus share.

現在，谷歌的問題在於他們擁有 90% 以上的份額。

So I think volume wise, there will be an impact on Google search.

是以，我認為從數量上看，谷歌搜索會受到影響。

But what really is the big mode for Google is the fact that they monetize, you know, just 20 to 30 percent of their queries.

但對谷歌來說，真正的大模式是，他們只將 20% 到 30% 的查詢貨幣化。

And they somehow have a way to combine all their family of apps, data, whether it's Gmail, Maps, all the other apps and show you the most relevant ad, which is why, you know, their ad pricing is way above everyone else.

他們有辦法將所有的應用程序和數據（無論是 Gmail、地圖還是其他應用程序）結合起來，向你展示最相關的廣告，這就是為什麼他們的廣告定價遠遠高於其他公司的原因。

To my mind, that is a mode that's hard to break.

在我看來，這種模式很難打破。

All these, you know, LLM offerings are subscription based.

所有這些，你知道的，法律碩士課程都是訂閱式的。

Nobody is really penetrating the, you know, or hurting them on the ad side.

在廣告方面，沒有人真正滲透或傷害他們。

Meta said they will get into search via their WhatsApp platform.

Meta 表示，他們將通過 WhatsApp 平臺進入搜索領域。

So Meta could be a competitor in search ad dollars.

是以，在搜索廣告費用方面，Meta 可能是競爭對手。

But everyone else so far is kind of going with the subscription offering when it comes to LLM searches.

但到目前為止，其他人在搜索法律碩士時都是選擇訂閱服務。

The extraordinary ubiquity of Google search is not new to anybody who has a phone or a computer, but situated for us in this moment where we have a new administration two weeks in looming large is this Department of Justice case against Google.

對於擁有手機或電腦的人來說，谷歌搜索無處不在的非凡功能並不陌生，但對於我們來說，在新政府上臺兩週之際，美國司法部針對谷歌的這起訴訟卻顯得尤為重要。

關於 Chrome 瀏覽器分拆的猜測。

How does the company see that in the context of this new administration?

在新一屆政府的背景下，公司如何看待這一點？

If there is one big risk out there, it's that Department of Justice crazed the case to divest from.

如果說有什麼大風險的話，那就是司法部瘋狂地要求撤資。

And if that happens, I mean, we're talking about a easy 10, 15 percent hit on search ad revenue.

如果出現這種情況，我的意思是，我們談論的搜索廣告收入很容易受到 10%、15% 的衝擊。

Yeah, because in the end, you know, on the desktop, they are getting a lot of data through the Chrome browser, even though they're not charging for it.

是的，因為到最後，你知道，在桌面上，他們通過 Chrome 瀏覽器獲取了大量數據，儘管他們沒有為此收費。

I mean, that's why the search is so effective.

我的意思是，這就是為什麼搜索如此有效。

Now, our base case is, you know, the Department of Justice will see the competition now for search.

現在，我們的基本情況是，你知道，司法部將看到現在的搜索競爭。

And there's no way you can say Google is a monopoly.

I mean, look at all the competition we were just talking about from LLM players.

我的意思是，看看我們剛才談到的來自 LLM 球員的競爭。

And so from that perspective, it's hard to argue, even though they may have had a monopoly in search, but it's hard to argue they have it now and going forward, given all the competition.

是以，從這個角度來看，很難說他們曾經壟斷了搜索市場，但考慮到所有的競爭，很難說他們現在和未來還擁有壟斷地位。

Probably the one that Google has suggested from their side.

這可能是谷歌方面提出的建議。

Now, I don't know if the judge will accept or not, is the, you know, the exclusive arrangements they have with Apple to be the default platform and the payments they make to Apple and Samsung.

現在，我不知道法官是否會接受，他們與蘋果公司達成的成為默認平臺的獨家協議，以及他們向蘋果和三星支付的款項。

But actually, that could help Google, because when it becomes a bidding mechanism, no one else is going to bid 20 billion dollars to be that default search.

但實際上，這可能對谷歌有所幫助，因為當它成為一種競價機制時，就不會再有人出價 200 億美元成為默認搜索了。

And so Google will still be the default search.

 And the 20 billion could be all gross margin.