Name: 氣候科學家"沒有一個地方是安全的 (Climate scientist: "There's no place that's safe")
Uploaded: 2025-01-21T16:14:16.000Z
Duration: 7 min 9 s

Nearly two weeks since the start of those devastating fires in and around Los Angeles.

洛杉磯及其周邊地區發生的毀滅性火災已過去近兩週時間。

Tracy Smith looks at some of the sobering lessons that endure in the embers.

特蕾西-史密斯（Tracy Smith）從餘燼中汲取了一些發人深省的教訓。

過去簡單式

But firefighters seem to have it cornered.

但是，消防員似乎已經把它逼到了絕境。

People have started returning to their homes or what's left of them.

人們開始返回自己的家園或所剩無幾的家園。

And insurance, if they had it, is a whole other battle.

如果他們有保險，那又是另外一回事了。

And the focus now is turning from what happened to why it happened and what in the world is next.

現在的焦點正從發生了什麼轉到為什麼會發生以及接下來會發生什麼。

This disaster is as bad as just about anybody here can remember.

這場災難的嚴重程度幾乎無人能及。

Nature is telling us, I can't take this anymore.

大自然在告訴我們，我再也受不了了。

I cannot support you if you keep treating me this way.

如果你繼續這樣對我，我無法支持你。

John Valiant is the author of Fire Weather on the Front Lines of a Burning World.

約翰-瓦蘭特是《燃燒世界前線的火災氣象》一書的作者。

And he says climate change is making disasters like the wind-driven L.A. fires fiercer.

他還說，氣候變化正在使洛杉磯大火等災害變得更加嚴重。

We can expect fires of this intensity and worse in the future.

我們可以預見，未來還會發生這種強度甚至更嚴重的火災。

The types of fires we've seen over the past ten years are qualitatively different from the previous hundred years.

在過去十年中，我們看到的火災類型與之前的一百年有著質的不同。

The most potent and frightening way, the most obvious to the layperson, you know, people like us, is it moves faster and with greater intensity.

最有力、最可怕的方式，也是對外行人來說最明顯的方式，你知道，像我們這樣的人，就是它移動得更快，強度更大。

And you talk to any firefighter with any sense of history, and they are seeing different behavior that is, in many cases, unfightable.

你和任何一個有歷史感的消防員交談，他們都會看到不同的行為，在很多情況下，這些行為是無法撲救的。

And Valiant says the cause is something science has been telling us for decades.

瓦萊特說，原因是科學幾十年來一直在告訴我們的。

The CO2 that our combustion engines keep pumping into the atmosphere.

我們的內燃機不斷向大氣中排放的二氧化碳。

But if you were to take the car engine that brought me here and set it up on the floor here and fired it up, we would go deaf, and then we would die from its emissions.

但是，如果你把把我帶到這裡來的汽車發動機放在這裡的地板上，然後啟動它，我們就會失聰，然後我們就會死於它的廢氣。

And that's under the hood of every internal combustion engine car, and there are hundreds of millions of them.

每輛內燃機汽車的引擎蓋下都有這樣的裝置，而這樣的汽車數以億計。

So the emissions from fire, these trillions of fires that we make every day, has created this artificially warm climate.

是以，火災產生的排放物，也就是我們每天製造的數以萬億計的火災，人為地製造了溫暖的氣候。

And so, he says, we get more intense fires, stronger hurricanes, and hotter heat waves.

是以，他說，我們會遭遇更猛烈的火災、更強烈的颶風和更炎熱的熱浪。

We're going to lose everything, and we're not joking.

我們將失去一切，我們不是在開玩笑。

Climate scientist Peter Kalmas has been sounding much the same alarm for years.

氣候科學家彼得-卡爾馬斯多年來一直在發出同樣的警報。

So do you feel like you're sitting on all this science and you're trying to share it with the world and no one's listening?

那麼，你是否覺得自己掌握了這麼多科學知識，想與世界分享卻無人傾聽？

We met him in 2022 near his home in Altadena, California, just as he was about to move his family to North Carolina.

2022 年，我們在他位於加利福尼亞州阿爾塔迪納的家附近見到了他，當時他正準備舉家遷往北卡羅來納州。

Was part of that move because you were worried about wildfires?

你搬家的部分原因是擔心野火嗎？

Yeah, so for a few years, I wanted to move to someplace a little bit less fiery.

是的，所以有幾年，我想搬到一個不那麼火熱的地方。

But I want to make it clear, I don't think there's any place safe from climate change.

但我想說清楚，我認為沒有任何地方可以免受氣候變化的影響。

Kalmas learned that firsthand last year when North Carolina was trashed by Hurricane Helene.

去年，北卡羅來納州遭受了海倫颶風的襲擊，卡爾馬斯親身體會到了這一點。

And the California fires were a disaster for him as well.

加州大火對他來說也是一場災難。

His old house in Altadena and his friends' homes all burned to the ground.

他在阿爾塔迪納的老房子和朋友的家都被燒燬了。

I'm hopeful that if there's a silver lining to this tragedy, it's that the public will wake up and get angry and say, we need to do something about this.

我希望，如果說這場悲劇還有一線希望的話，那就是公眾會覺醒，會憤怒，會說，我們需要對此做點什麼。

Scientists like Peter Kalmas have been warning the world about impending climate disaster for years now.

多年來，像彼得-卡爾瑪斯這樣的科學家一直在警告世人氣候災難即將來臨。

But on January 6th, as the fire closed in on Altadena, perhaps the most effective warning came from this guy.

但在 1 月 6 日，當大火逼近阿爾塔蒂納時，也許是這個人發出了最有效的警告。

Edgar McGregor's been picking up trash in Altadena every day for more than five years.

五年多來，埃德加-麥格雷戈（Edgar McGregor）每天都在阿爾塔迪納撿垃圾。

He's also into meteorology and runs a Facebook page about weather.

他還喜歡氣象學，並在 Facebook 上開設了一個關於天氣的頁面。

Days before the fires even started, he warned his Facebook followers about dangerous conditions.

在火災發生前幾天，他就在 Facebook 上向他的追隨者們發出了危險情況的警告。

And on January 6th, he posted a video telling them to drop everything and get out of town.

1 月 6 日，他發佈了一段視頻，告訴他們放下一切，離開這座城市。

Do not wait for an official evacuation notice.

如果你認為你應該離開，那就離開吧。

I stood in the middle of my street at home, filmed myself with the mountains on fire behind me, and told people, this is serious.

我站在家裡的街道中央，拍下了自己身後著火的群山，並告訴人們，這很嚴重。

Jen Seifert, an Altadena mother of two, didn't need to hear that twice.

有兩個孩子的阿爾塔迪納母親珍-塞弗特（Jen Seifert）不需要聽第二遍這樣的話。

How much of a difference do you think Edgar made?

I think, I think he, well, he definitely saved my family's life.

我想，我想他，嗯，他肯定救了我家人的命。

We were like, this kid knows what he's talking about.

我們當時想，這孩子知道他在說什麼。

她自己的房子以某種方式倖存了下來。

My best friends, like, they've lost everything.

我最好的朋友，就像，他們失去了一切。

Because, probably because of Edgar, I would imagine.

因為，我猜可能是因為埃德加。

Everybody in the beautiful Altadena group is alive because of Edgar right now.

因為埃德加，美麗的阿爾塔蒂納小組的每個人現在都還活著。

Jen Seifert had never met Edgar McGregor in person, so we asked if she wanted to shake his hand.

珍-塞弗特從未見過埃德加-麥格雷戈本人，所以我們問她是否想和他握手。

And you saved my family and you saved so many people.

你救了我的家人，也救了很多人。

The fires, experts say, are a warning on a much bigger scale.

專家說，大火是一個更大範圍的警告。

That the earth will continue to get drier and more volatile unless we do something about climate change.

除非我們對氣候變化採取一些措施，否則地球將繼續變得更乾燥、更不穩定。

But, of course, warnings only work when people listen.

當然，警告只有在人們傾聽時才會起作用。

是我們把大自然逼得太緊了嗎？