In the early 1980s, as many as 40 percent of the new homes built were considered entry level.

20 世紀 80 年代初，多達 40% 的新建住宅被視為入門級住宅。

By 2023, just 9 percent fit the criteria.

到 2023 年，只有 9% 符合標準。

Given another 20 years and literally no young person will be able to afford to purchase a home, period.

再過 20 年，就真的沒有年輕人買得起房了。

Meanwhile, a slowdown is mounting in the home building industry, which could contribute to the ongoing decline of the starter home.

與此同時，住宅建築業的增長速度也在放緩，這可能會導致入門級住宅的持續衰退。

Both housing starts and building permits, which are an indicator of construction, have slowed down this fall.

作為建築業指標的房屋開工和建築許可在今年秋季都有所放緩。

And it's not just seasonal.

而且這不僅僅是季節性的。

There are over three million potential first time home buyers in the country.

全國有 300 多萬潛在的首次購房者。

They're up against high home prices that keep rising.

他們面臨的是不斷上漲的高房價。

What you're starting to see are many price bubblets in markets that are an hour, two to three hours from major metropolitan cities.

在距離大城市一小時或兩三小時車程的市場，你會看到許多價格保麗龍。

It is such an unusual market because we have an all time low of first time home buyers, but an all time high of all cash buyers.

這是一個不尋常的市場，因為首次購房者人數創下歷史新低，而現金購房者人數卻創下歷史新高。

So where did all the starter homes go?

那麼，所有的起步房都去哪兒了？

A starter home is typically modest in size and price.

起步房通常面積不大，價格也不高。

It's the most affordable home in any market.

在任何市場上，這都是最經濟實惠的住宅。

If you're in the Midwest, maybe it's in the hundred thousand dollar range.

如果你在中西部地區，可能需要十幾萬美元。

If you're in California, a starter home might be in the four hundred thousand dollar range.

如果你在加利福尼亞州，一套起步房的價格可能在 40 萬美元左右。

To me, a starter home used to be a smaller condo, a smaller space, and someone would upgrade maybe after five years as they get married or have a family and want to move.

在我看來，過去的起步房就是一個較小的公寓，一個較小的空間，有人可能會在五年後結婚或成家，想要搬家時再升級。

But now we're actually seeing that most people are moving to a smaller home, most people are buying their first home as a single family residence and really planning on staying in place.

但實際上，我們現在看到的是，大多數人都搬到了更小的房子裡，大多數人都把自己的第一套房子買成了獨棟住宅，並真正打算留在原地。

America's home builders are making fewer of these kinds of units.

美國的房屋建築商正在減少生產這類住房。

If you look at the number of single family starter homes, those defined as being fourteen hundred square feet or smaller, we used to supply anywhere between four hundred and five hundred thousand units a year.

如果你看一下單戶起步住宅的數量，即那些被定義為 1400 平方英尺或更小的住宅，我們曾經每年供應 40 到 50 萬套。

Over the past decade, builders have put up less than one hundred thousand homes each year.

在過去十年中，建築商每年建造的房屋不足十萬套。

Really, by far, the number one reason is the increasing difficulty that many builders have in dealing with zoning regulations.

實際上，到目前為止，首要原因是許多建築商在處理分區法規時遇到了越來越多的困難。

Zoning laws are set at the local level.

分區法在地方一級制定。

These laws can determine the size of each lot in a neighborhood.

這些法律可以確定社區內每塊地的面積。

They can also specify how far a structure is set back from the property line, how tall it is or how many units are on site.

它們還可以規定建築物後退多遠、多高或有多少個單元。

In many cases, these laws create an opportunity for local residents to challenge new development.

在許多情況下，這些法律為當地居民創造了挑戰新開發項目的機會。

The residents often raise concerns like overcrowding of schools and wear and tear on local roads.

居民們經常提出學校人滿為患、當地道路損耗等問題。

A lot of this has to do with density restrictions within local communities.

這在很大程度上與當地社區的密度限制有關。

They may not want a townhouse or a condo community coming in, but they absolutely will welcome a single family community.

他們可能不希望有聯排別墅或公寓社區出現，但絕對歡迎獨戶住宅社區。

Zoning codes are found all around the country.

全國各地都有分區法規。

The most restrictive ones are often found in major cities.

限制最嚴格的往往是大城市。

Many builders are not leaving money on the table.

許多建築商不會把錢留在桌子上。

They are just simply unable to build or it's become so expensive to build that they can only build high end single family and high end multifamily.

他們只是無法建造，或者建造成本太高，只能建造高端的單戶住宅和高端的多戶住宅。

Given the high price of land, labor, materials, it's very difficult for big home builders to build the entry level homes.

由於土地、勞動力和材料價格高昂，大型住宅建築商很難建造入門級住宅。

There are a couple who specialize like D.R.

有幾個像 D.R. 這樣的專業人士

Horton, which has an express homes division, which specializes in starter homes.

霍頓（Horton），該公司有一個特快住宅分部，專門經營起步住宅。

But for medium sized builders, it's just very expensive in order to pencil all the costs they have and make it affordable to that lower end buyer.

但對於中等規模的建築商來說，要想把所有成本都用在低端買家身上，讓他們買得起，成本就非常高了。

As a result, homebuilders and first time buyers are targeting further flung locations.

是以，房屋建築商和首次購房者將目標瞄準了更偏遠的地區。

We've definitely seen a trend toward purchasing a home further from the urban core.

我們確實看到了在遠離城市核心的地方購房的趨勢。

So you do see a lot of new construction in suburbia and exurbia.

是以，你確實會在郊區和外圍地區看到很多新建築。

Home values are now rising most rapidly in low density in rural areas.

目前，農村低密度地區的房屋價值上升最快。

Experts say that relaxing these codes could lead to higher levels of home building and preserve affordability.

專家們表示，放寬這些法規可以提高房屋建築水準，保持經濟承受能力。

You know, for example, in San Antonio, there are some builders that are building sub 1000 square feet, single family detached homes, right, which would have been almost unthinkable just a few years ago.

例如，在聖安東尼奧，一些建築商正在建造 1000 平方英尺以下的獨棟獨立住宅，這在幾年前幾乎是不可想象的。

So the market is reacting, but its response mechanism is really limited because of the rules of the game.

是以，市場正在做出反應，但由於遊戲規則的限制，其反應機制確實有限。

Some areas with less restrictive zoning codes are welcoming many newcomers.

一些分區法規限制較少的地區正迎來許多新移民。

For an example, see Metro Atlanta.

例如，請參見亞特蘭大大都會區。

Home is in Atlanta now.

家現在在亞特蘭大。

I'm currently in Decatur, Georgia, which is right outside of the perimeter.

我現在在佐治亞州迪凱特，就在外圍。

So I have easy access to the city.

是以，我可以很方便地前往市區。

It gives a little bit more of suburban-ish kind of feel.

它給人一種郊區的感覺。

It's just the culture, the energy, the aesthetic, the environment, a more elevated experience in day to day living, honestly.

老實說，這裡的文化、活力、美學、環境，讓我在日常生活中獲得了更高的體驗。

Lillian Mantia is a filmmaker and entrepreneur.

莉蓮-曼蒂亞是一名電影製片人和企業家。

She was in line to buy a home in the Baltimore area in 2024, but that plan fell through.

她本打算 2024 年在巴爾的摩地區買房，但計劃落空了。

Since then, she's moved to Atlanta to live with her sister and come up with a new plan.

此後，她搬到亞特蘭大與姐姐同住，並制定了新的計劃。

I did grow up in Baltimore.

我確實是在巴爾的摩長大的。

I gave Baltimore a shot in my adulthood with my children.

成年後，我帶著孩子們在巴爾的摩試了一次。

And I did the nine to five and, you know, attempted to buy a house there and everything.

我過著朝九晚五的生活，你知道，我試圖在那裡買房子，做一切事情。

But Baltimore wasn't providing the, I don't know, just the lifestyle resources community that is needed for me to thrive.

但巴爾的摩並沒有提供我茁壯成長所需的生活方式資源社區。

And Atlanta has been able to kind of just support me more.

亞特蘭大能給我更多支持。

Experts say that more dense forms of housing could have helped first-time buyers, particularly in crowded areas.

專家說，更密集的住房形式本可以幫助首次購房者，尤其是在擁擠地區。

We do know that local communities are trying to address the lack of housing inventory in pretty unique ways.

我們確實知道，當地社區正試圖以相當獨特的方式解決住房庫存不足的問題。

So accessory dwelling units is certainly a popular approach right now.

是以，附屬住宅單元無疑是目前最流行的方法。

That's one solution.

這是一個解決方案。

But I think we need to be looking at adaptive reuse as well.

但我認為，我們還需要考慮適應性再利用。

So looking at vacant hotel motels, looking at vacant residential malls, and how do we bring residential housing units into those areas?

那麼，看看空置的汽車旅館，看看空置的住宅商場，我們該如何將住宅單元引入這些區域呢？

Much of the new construction since 2020 is in luxury apartments with units that are not for sale.

自 2020 年以來，大部分新建築都是帶有非出售單元的豪華公寓。

The recent boom in multifamily construction has been on the higher luxury end, but it's easier for multifamily developers to get in and pencil that many apartments because they're renting them and rents have been very high.

最近的多戶住宅建設熱潮是在高端豪華住宅方面，但多戶住宅開發商更容易進入並建造這麼多公寓，因為他們要出租這些公寓，而且租金一直很高。

Finances are a big barrier for first-time buyers.

資金是首次購房者的一大障礙。

The premium paid to buy a home has increased sharply relative to renting over the past decade.

與租房相比，在過去十年中，買房所支付的溢價急劇上升。

The increases in home prices have also outpaced increases in wages.

房價的增長也超過了工資的增長。

As a result, home sales are down across many markets and the median age of the typical first-time home buyer has climbed to 38.

是以，許多市場的房屋銷售量都在下降，首次購房者的典型年齡中位數已升至 38 歲。

That's up from age 29 in 1981.

這比 1981 年的 29 歲要高。

Just thinking about all of the headwinds that a 30-year-old may have, like and then they have rising rent.

想想 30 歲的人可能會遇到的所有困難，比如房租上漲。

And so keeping that all in mind, it's hard to save for a down payment when housing affordability is really out of reach.

是以，考慮到這一切，在住房負擔能力確實遙不可及的情況下，很難為首付存錢。

The problem is you have the most demand on the low end of the market because affordability is so rough right now.

問題是，低端市場的需求最大，因為現在的經濟承受能力太差了。

But you also have the least supply on the low end of the market.

但低端市場的供應量也最少。

The average price of homes has increased rapidly, too.

房屋的平均價格也迅速上漲。

Nationwide, home prices have climbed over 52 percent between January 2020 and October 2024.

從 2020 年 1 月到 2024 年 10 月，全國房價上漲了 52% 以上。

Adding to the burden, mortgage rates have returned to their standard historical range, near 7 percent.

房貸利率已恢復到接近 7% 的歷史標準範圍，這無疑加重了人們的負擔。

Homeowners with a mortgage are paying 29 percent more than they would if they rented the same house.

有房貸的房主比租住同樣的房子要多付 29% 的房租。

Dynamics like that are shutting out all but the highest income Americans out of the market, at least on average.

這樣的態勢將除收入最高的美國人之外的所有人拒之門外，至少平均而言是這樣。

We're seeing first-time homebuyers come into the market using inheritance, using 401k or stocks, cashing those out, combining all of these resources and actually making an all-cash purchase.

我們看到，首次購房者利用遺產、401K 或股票進入市場，將這些資金套現，將所有這些資源整合起來，實際上是全現金購房。

Investors are buying homes, too, but economists saw their shares jump to an all-time high in 2024.

投資者也在買房，但經濟學家看到，他們的份額在 2024 年躍升至歷史新高。

Still, they make up a tiny fraction of the overall housing stock.

儘管如此，它們在整個住房總量中仍只佔很小一部分。

The issue of large-scale investors is really not an issue.

大規模投資者的問題確實不是問題。

If you look at their share of the market, it's only 1 to 2 percent.

如果你看一下他們的市場份額，只有 1%到 2%。

However, if you look within fast-growing markets, particularly those that are affordable and in the South, those entities are making it a little bit more difficult for buyers to purchase.

然而，如果你看看快速增長的市場，尤其是那些經濟實惠的市場和南方市場，這些實體正在為購房者的購買增加一些難度。

Having said all that, if there was a normal amount of supply and we didn't have the shortage, this would not be really an issue.

說了這麼多，如果有正常的供應量，我們沒有短缺，這就不是一個真正的問題。

With elevated prices on the market, today's buyers may need to rely on outside help to finance a home.

由於市場價格上漲，如今的購房者可能需要依靠外部幫助來籌集購房資金。

I think it's increasingly difficult to buy that first home if you don't have help.

我認為，如果沒有人幫忙，購買第一套住房會越來越難。

You know, in a more affordable market, it's $400,000.

要知道，在一個更實惠的市場，它的價格是 40 萬美元。

That means you have to come up with $80,000 in down payment if you assume the typical conventional loan.

這就意味著，如果採用典型的傳統貸款方式，您必須支付 8 萬美元的首付款。

It's really difficult to come up with that down payment.

要拿出這筆首付款真的很難。

So we do see in the data increasingly more consumers are getting help, whether that's from their parents or from down payment assistance programs.

是以，我們確實從數據中看到，越來越多的消費者得到了幫助，無論是來自父母的幫助，還是來自首付援助計劃的幫助。

There are over 2,400 down payment assistance programs nationwide.

全國有 2400 多個首付援助計劃。

Depending on your income and where you live, the aid can be substantial.

根據您的收入和居住地的不同，援助金額可能會很可觀。

I haven't purchased a home yet, and I've been in the process of purchasing a home.

我還沒有買房，我一直在買房的過程中。

But being in this process, I definitely have more of a optimistic, I guess, perspective with home buying now.

但在這個過程中，我對買房有了更樂觀的看法。

And I just talked to a realtor here and she even told me that you are able to purchase a home even with a credit score of 500 and something.

我剛和這裡的一位房地產經紀人談過，她甚至告訴我，即使信用分數只有 500 分左右，你也可以買房。

So I think it's just a matter of taking the initiative and knowing that you can be a homeowner.

是以，我認為這只是一個採取主動的問題，知道自己可以成為房主。

Regulation at all levels of government affect how homes are built.

各級政府的監管都會影響住宅的建造方式。

Experts say they're holding back new construction.

專家說，這阻礙了新建築的發展。

This crisis is worsened by various factors, including rising construction costs, regulatory burdens and limited availability of buildable land.

建築成本上升、監管負擔和可建設用地有限等各種因素加劇了這一危機。

There's definitely excessive regulation, a lot of inefficient local zoning.

這裡肯定存在過度的監管和大量低效的地方分區。

The zoning codes really originated nearly a century ago, and it made sense at the time.

分區法規真正起源於近一個世紀前，在當時是合理的。

However, since then, there's been an increasing thicket of layers that have made it increasingly difficult for builders.

然而，從那時起，層級越來越多，給建築商帶來了越來越大的困難。

This is sort of the concern, unfortunately, with policy is sometimes you have to think about in advance things that can go wrong.

不幸的是，這正是政策方面的問題所在，有時你必須提前考慮到可能出錯的事情。

Like, so think about zoning.

比如，考慮一下分區。

Like it made sense in the 1900s to begin in New York City.

就像在 20 世紀從紐約開始是合理的一樣。

It made sense if you needed meatpacking plants to be a little bit away from residential areas.

如果你需要肉類加工廠離居民區稍遠一些，這是有道理的。

But you take that to an extreme and out of New York City and into middle America and then it causes problems.

但是，如果你把這種情況發揮到極致，走出紐約市，進入美國中部，就會產生問題。

Regulation at this point can make up 25 percent of the builders cost to build that home.

此時的監管可以佔到建築商建房成本的 25%。

And there is a lot of talk of deregulation, especially under the new Trump administration.

特別是在特朗普新政府的上司下，放松管制的言論甚囂塵上。

Until more housing is built, prices are expected to keep marching upward quickly.

在建造更多住房之前，預計房價將繼續快速上漲。

The willingness and desire for homeownership amongst renters, particularly younger renters under the age of 35, is very high.

租房者，尤其是 35 歲以下的年輕租房者，擁有住房的意願和願望非常強烈。

However, the problem is the obstacles are also just as high.

然而，問題是障礙也同樣巨大。