Name: 中國經濟2025年展望：有樂觀的空間嗎？- BBC News 中文 (中國經濟2025年展望：有樂觀的空間嗎？－ BBC News 中文)
Uploaded: 2024-12-26T12:28:49.000Z
Duration: 2 min 34 s

It's been a bad two years for the Chinese economy, but as we head into 2025, is there some room for some optimism?

對中國經濟來說，這是糟糕的兩年，但在邁向2025年之際，是否還有一些樂觀的空間？

程度副詞

All the data shows that growth in China is still low, youth unemployment is still high and citizens, they just aren't spending like they were before the pandemic.

所有的數據都表明，中國的經濟增長仍然很低，青年失業率仍然很高，市民的消費水平也不如大流行病之前。

And ultimately, it's the property problem which is at the heart of all of this.

歸根結底，財產問題才是這一切的核心。

而這一問題至今仍未得到解決。

The Chinese policymakers response to the troubled housing market has on the whole been lacklustre.

中國政策制定者對陷入困境的房地產市場的反應總的來說乏善可陳。

There's a sense that they don't want to row back on the progress they've achieved in cooling the market and bringing prices down and reducing the economy's reliance on real estate.

有一種感覺是，他們不想放棄在冷卻市場、降低房價、減少經濟對房地產的依賴方面已經取得的進展。

But the problem is other sectors have not yet emerged that can fill the gap left by housing in the Chinese economy.

但問題是，其他行業尚未出現，無法填補住房在中國經濟中留下的空白。

So don't expect a big bazooka style stimulus package to try and improve the Chinese economy.

是以，不要指望一個大火箭筒式的刺激計劃來改善中國經濟。

To the Chinese president, that's the sort of thing that Western boom and bust capitalist economies would do.

在中國國家主席看來，這就是西方繁榮與蕭條的資本主義經濟體會做的事情。

Having said that, he knows that he does have to do something in the short term.

儘管如此，他知道短期內他確實必須做些什麼。

And recently, the government has been making some tweaks to its policies to try and get consumers to spend a bit more in the coming year.

最近，政府對其政策進行了一些調整，試圖讓消費者在來年多花一些錢。

President Xi received some very candid and blunt feedback on the state of the economy during a trip to Western China in September, where he met with some senior retired party leaders who were willing to speak to him in very blunt terms.

習主席在 9 月份的中國西部之行中得到了一些關於經濟狀況的非常坦率直白的反饋，他在那裡會見了一些退休的黨的高級領導人，他們願意用非常直白的語言與他交談。

And that seems to have been a catalyst for this pivot toward stimulus.

這似乎是刺激政策轉向的催化劑。

But President Xi's orientation overall has been to stay the course and keep the faith that the focus on high quality growth would eventually yield dividends after a difficult transition period.

但習主席的總體方向是堅持到底，並堅信在經歷了艱難的轉型期後，注重高質量增長的做法終將帶來紅利。

Many of China's problems are structural and they will not be fixed overnight.

中國的許多問題都是結構性的，不是一朝一夕就能解決的。

Xi Jinping basically wants to evolve, to totally reshape what makes China prosperous.

習近平從根本上說是要發展，要徹底重塑中國的繁榮。

But moving away from mass manufacturing and property to high tech industries like AI, renewables, biotech, that's going to take years, if not decades, to achieve.

但是，從大規模製造和房地產轉向人工智能、可再生能源、生物技術等高科技產業，這需要數年甚至數十年的時間才能實現。

是以，這確實是一個長期項目。

 But in the meantime, let's not forget there's also the small matter of a second Donald Trump presidency to contend with as well.

但與此同時，我們也不要忘了還有唐納德-特朗普第二次當選總統這件小事。