Name: 經濟成長停滯不前、大公司裁員，德國經濟的命運為甚麼改變了？ (Why Germany's economic fortunes changed | DW News)
Uploaded: 2024-12-28T21:01:30.000Z
Duration: 10 min 37 s

情態副詞

There's something seriously wrong with Germany's economy.

Growth has stalled, there's a big hole in the public budget, and some of the country's most iconic companies are cutting jobs.

經濟增長停滯不前，公共預算漏洞百出，國內一些最具代表性的公司正在裁員。

No one in charge can agree on what to do.

沒有一個負責人能就該怎麼做達成一致。

To find out, we need to go back to an era where everything seemed stable.

要找出答案，我們需要回到一個一切看似穩定的時代。

An era where Germany was considered Europe's economic powerhouse.

We need to revisit Germany under Angela Merkel.

我們需要重新審視梅克爾領導下的德國。

During her 16 years in office, economic growth was steady, unemployment came way down, and exports rose.

在她執政的 16 年間，經濟穩步增長，失業率大幅下降，出口增加。

And yet, her decisions are now being blamed for some of Germany's gravest economic problems.

然而，她的決定現在卻被歸咎於德國一些最嚴重的經濟問題。

We're going to unpack this by looking at four major aspects of Merkelnomics.

我們將從梅克爾經濟學的四個主要方面來解讀這一點。

Energy, public spending, migration, and trade with China.

能源、公共開支、移民以及與中國的貿易。

Let's start with a policy that's currently haunting her the most.

讓我們從目前最困擾她的一項政策說起。

In 2005, just days before Merkel took office,

2005 年，就在梅克爾上任的前幾天、

Russian energy giant Gazprom signed an agreement with German companies BASF and E.ON to build Nord Stream 1, a pipeline that would bring Russian gas to Germany via the Baltic Sea.

俄羅斯能源巨頭俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司（Gazprom）與德國巴斯夫（BASF）和意昂（E.ON）公司簽署了一項協議，建設北溪 1 號管道，將俄羅斯天然氣經由波羅的海輸送到德國。

The foundations for this were laid by Merkel's predecessor, Gerhard Schroeder, whose close friendship with Russian President

梅克爾的前任格哈德-施羅德（Gerhard Schroeder）為此奠定了基礎。

But Merkel continued and expanded the project.

但梅克爾繼續並擴大了該項目。

In 2015, a year after Russia annexed Crimea, plans for a second pipeline, Nord Stream 2, were inked.

2015 年，在俄羅斯吞併克里米亞一年後，第二條管道 "北溪 2 號 "計劃正式簽署。

Germany's dependence on Russian gas rose from 40 to 49%.

德國對俄羅斯天然氣的依賴度從 40% 上升到 49%。

Not a huge jump, but part of a trend she didn't intend to reverse.

這不是一個巨大的飛躍，但卻是她無意扭轉的趨勢的一部分。

Merkel justifies this on the basis that Germany's energy-intensive, export-focused industries needed cheap power.

梅克爾的理由是，德國的能源密集型出口工業需要廉價電力。

Germany's industrial foundation was strong and had to be shored up to safeguard jobs, which, in turn, safeguarded social security.

德國的工業基礎雄厚，必須加以鞏固，以保障就業，進而保障社會保障。

Things could not have turned out any more differently.

In February 2022, Chancellor Olaf Scholz halted the Nord Stream 2 project in response to Russia recognising two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine.

2022 年 2 月，由於俄羅斯承認了烏克蘭東部的兩個分離地區，烏克蘭總理奧拉夫-肖爾茨（Olaf Scholz）停止了北溪 2 號項目。

Putin began his full-scale invasion of the country.

In September of that year, in an act of sabotage that remains officially unresolved, explosions ripped through Nord Stream 1 and 2.

同年 9 月，北溪 1 號和 2 號管道發生爆炸，這一破壞行為至今仍未得到正式解決。

Germany's relationship with Russian gas ended abruptly.

德國與俄羅斯天然氣的關係戛然而止。

In the months that followed, energy prices spiked.

在隨後的幾個月裡，能源價格飆升。

The government provided companies with subsidies to lessen the pain.

政府為公司提供補貼，以減輕他們的痛苦。

Still, the impact on German industry was severe.

儘管如此，德國工業還是受到了嚴重影響。

Chemicals giant BASF has cut well over 2,000 jobs in Germany and expanded in China instead.

化工巨頭巴斯夫在德國裁員 2000 多人，轉而在中國擴張。

Steelmaker ThyssenKrupp has announced plans to slash up to 11,000 jobs.

鋼鐵製造商蒂森克虜伯（ThyssenKrupp）宣佈計劃裁員多達 11,000 人。

And all over the country, smaller, family-owned companies from bakeries to glassmakers have struggled to make ends meet.

而在全國各地，從麵包店到玻璃製造商等規模較小的家族企業都在艱難度日。

But the high cost of energy is just one reason the German industry is struggling.

但能源成本高昂只是德國工業陷入困境的原因之一。

Another is lack of public spending, exemplified by outdated rail infrastructure, the recent collapse of a bridge in Dresden, and slow broadband, especially in rural areas.

另一個原因是公共開支不足，例如鐵路基礎設施陳舊、最近德累斯頓一座橋樑倒塌以及寬帶速度緩慢，尤其是在農村地區。

To understand the reason behind this underinvestment, we once again have to go back to the Merkel era, specifically to the year 2009.

要了解投資不足背後的原因，我們不得不再次回到梅克爾時代，特別是 2009 年。

Germany was playing a leading role in the response to the eurozone debt crisis, offering bailouts to the likes of Greece and Spain and demanding strict austerity in response.

德國在應對歐元區債務危機方面發揮著主導作用，為希臘和西班牙等國提供救助，並要求採取嚴格的財政緊縮措施。

Recognizing that Germany's own public debt had risen sharply in the years prior to the crisis,

認識到德國自身的公共債務在危機前幾年急劇上升、

Merkel introduced the debt break, a limit on how much money the German government was able to borrow.

梅克爾推出了債務減免政策，即限制德國政府的借款額度。

15 years on, these strict limits on borrowing are still in place, and they're being blamed for underinvestment in digital development, infrastructure, and, crucially, defence.

15 年過去了，這些嚴格的借貸限制依然存在，而人們卻將其歸咎於數字發展、基礎設施以及至關重要的國防領域的投資不足。

In fact, a 2023 constitutional court ruling dictating their strict enforcement is also the reason Germany currently has a €60bn hole in its budget.

事實上，2023 年憲法法院的一項裁決要求嚴格執行這些規定，這也是德國目前預算出現 600 億歐元缺口的原因。

While politicians continue to squabble about the debt break today, even Merkel herself says it's time to scrap it.

如今，政客們仍在為債務減免問題爭論不休，就連梅克爾本人也表示是時候取消債務減免了。

If Merkel proved cautious in her spending in other policy areas, she surprised many by her bold moves.

如果說梅克爾在其他政策領域的支出證明了她的謹慎，那麼她的大膽舉動則讓許多人大吃一驚。

In 2011, following the Fukushima disaster in Japan, she decided to phase out nuclear power, a radical shift from her previous stance.

2011 年，日本福島核洩漏事故發生後，她決定逐步淘汰核電，這與她之前的立場截然不同。

At the time, nuclear accounted for about a quarter of Germany's electricity production.

當時，核電約佔德國發電量的四分之一。

It had been seen as a key part of the country's transition to renewable energy, since in terms of emissions, it's a clean fuel.

它一直被視為該國向可再生能源過渡的關鍵部分，因為就排放而言，它是一種清潔燃料。

At the time, the decision had wide support, but in the current environment of high energy prices and seemingly unattainable climate goals, the possibility of returning to nuclear energy is back on the table.

當時，這一決定得到了廣泛的支持，但在當前能源價格居高不下、氣候目標似乎難以實現的環境下，重新使用核能的可能性又被提了出來。

In a recent policy paper, the conservative CDU, the party likely to lead the next government, pledged to investigate the feasibility of a return to nuclear power, and announced the goal of building the world's first nuclear fusion reactor in Germany.

在最近的一份政策文件中，可能上司下屆政府的保守黨基民盟承諾調查恢復核能的可行性，並宣佈了在德國建造世界上第一個核聚變反應堆的目標。

Remember, this is Merkel's own party we're talking about here.

請記住，我們現在談論的是梅克爾自己的政黨。

Okay, so we've seen how Merkel's energy policy and her strict spending rules haven't aged too well, but we haven't yet talked about the decision that has most come to define her legacy.

好的，我們已經看到梅克爾的能源政策和嚴格的支出規則並沒有過時，但我們還沒有討論最能定義她遺產的決定。

In 2015, as conflicts raged in the Middle East,

As the situation became increasingly out of control at the EU's periphery, Merkel decided to open Germany's borders, leading to the arrival of hundreds of thousands of people from war-torn countries like Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq.

隨著歐盟外圍局勢日益失控，梅克爾決定開放德國邊境，導致數十萬人從敘利亞、阿富汗和伊拉克等飽受戰爭蹂躪的國家來到德國。

At the time, most Germans believed that was the right decision.

當時，大多數德國人都認為這是一個正確的決定。

People lined up at train stations to welcome the new arrivals, a sentiment that was summed up in the German phrase

人們在火車站列隊歡迎新來的移民，德語中的一句話概括了這種情感

隨著時間的推移，公眾的態度也發生了變化。

Widespread sexual assaults on women in Cologne and other German cities on New Year's Eve 2015, and the terrorist attack on a Berlin Christmas market one year later, heightened security concerns about the impact of the open-door policy.

2015 年除夕夜在科隆和德國其他城市發生的大範圍性侵婦女事件，以及一年後柏林聖誕市場發生的恐怖襲擊事件，加劇了人們對開放政策影響的安全擔憂。

Support for Germany's far-right anti-immigrant party, the AFD, increased.

德國極右翼反移民黨 AFD 的支持率有所上升。

Merkel's migration policy was grounded in a humanitarian impulse.

梅克爾的移民政策以人道主義衝動為基礎。

In her memoir, she writes that the streams of people making their way from Hungary to Germany by train reminded her of scenes from the Prague uprising of 1989, when East Germans fled to West Germany via the Czech capital.

她在回憶錄中寫道，乘坐火車從匈牙利前往德國的人流讓她想起了 1989 年布拉格起義的場景，當時東德人通過捷克首都逃往西德。

Still, it's unlikely that the reality of Germany's demographics were entirely absent from her mind.

儘管如此，她也不可能完全不考慮德國人口結構的現實。

Germany has the twin problem of many advanced economies, an aging population, and a low birth rate.

與許多發達經濟體一樣，德國也面臨著人口老齡化和出生率低的雙重問題。

The people who arrived in Germany from 2015 onwards were mainly young.

從 2015 年起抵達德國的主要是年輕人。

The Daimler boss of the time, Dieter Zetsche, said the new arrivals could ignite a new economic miracle, or Wirtschaftswunder in Germany, as it happened in the 50s and 60s, thanks to the arrival of millions of immigrant workers who helped to rebuild the country after the war.

當時的戴姆勒老闆迪特爾-蔡澈（Dieter Zetsche）說，由於數百萬移民工人的到來，他們幫助德國在戰後重建了國家，所以這些新移民可能會點燃德國新的經濟奇蹟，或稱經濟奇蹟（Wirtschaftswunder）。

According to a survey by Germany's Institute for Employment Research, over half of the refugees who arrived in Germany in 2015 were employed by 2021, though many of them were working in jobs they were overqualified for.

根據德國就業研究所的一項調查，2015 年抵達德國的難民中，有一半以上在 2021 年之前找到了工作，儘管其中許多人從事的工作超出了他們的能力範圍。

Although Russia invaded Ukraine after Merkel left office, of the more than one million Ukrainians who fled to Germany, around a quarter of them are now in employment.

雖然俄羅斯在梅克爾卸任後入侵了烏克蘭，但在逃往德國的 100 多萬烏克蘭人中，約有四分之一目前正在就業。

Many more are enrolled in German language courses.

還有更多的人在學習德語課程。

As time goes by, more of these people will enter the labor market.

隨著時間的推移，會有更多這樣的人進入勞動力市場。

Still, the costs of bridging the gap are considerable.

不過，縮小差距的成本還是相當可觀的。

Last year, the German government spent almost €12 billion on welfare transfers for refugees.

去年，德國政府花費了近 120 億歐元用於難民的福利轉移。

That figure includes things like unemployment benefit, rental support, and training courses.

這一數字包括失業補助、租金支持和培訓課程等。

But if they stay, the long-term demographic effect could be positive.

但如果他們留下來，長期的人口效應可能是積極的。

Last year, the average German woman had 1.26 children.

去年，德國婦女平均生育 1.26 個孩子。

The rate among the migrant community was higher at 1.74.

移民社區的比率更高，為 1.74。

A seemingly modest difference that will become more apparent over time.

看似微不足道的差別，隨著時間的推移會越來越明顯。

If Merkel thought she'd seen her share of crises with the debt drama of 2009 and the migration wave of 2015, she was wrong.

如果梅克爾認為她已經經歷了 2009 年的債務危機和 2015 年的移民潮，那她就錯了。

As businesses shut down, the government enabled companies to keep staff on reduced hours instead of laying them off.

在企業倒閉時，政府允許企業減少員工的工作時間，而不是裁員。

That policy, known as Kurzarbeit, prevented unemployment from spiraling.

這項被稱為 "Kurzarbeit "的政策防止了失業率的飆升。

But the supply chain disruption the pandemic caused also exposed the pitfalls of another Merkel policy, deepening trade ties with China.

但疫情造成的供應鏈中斷也暴露了梅克爾另一項政策--深化對華貿易關係--的弊端。

During her time in office, the Chinese economy was growing many times faster than Germany was, offering a strong market for German exports like cars, industrial parts, and medical equipment.

在她任職期間，中國經濟的增長速度是德國的數倍，為德國的汽車、工業零部件和醫療設備等出口產品提供了強大的市場。

But Germany and other countries miscalculated the pace of technological development within China.

但德國和其他國家錯估了中國的技術發展速度。

Chinese companies charged ahead, especially in areas like electric mobility.

中國企業衝鋒在前，尤其是在電動汽車等領域。

Failing to recognize on time that China was becoming a high-end producer of e-vehicles is one big reason German carmakers are struggling now.

未能及時意識到中國正在成為電動汽車的高端生產國，是德國汽車製造商目前舉步維艱的一個重要原因。

So after considering developments in energy, public spending, migration, and ties with China, what grade can one give Merkelnomics?

那麼，在考慮了能源、公共開支、移民以及與中國關係等方面的發展之後，我們能給默克爾經濟學打幾分呢？

Well, in an era of free-flowing trade and relatively uncomplicated geopolitical relations, her policies provided stability, stability that also explained the German people's openness to migration.

那麼，在一個貿易自由流動、地緣政治關係相對不復雜的時代，她的政策提供了穩定，這種穩定也是德國人民對移民持開放態度的原因。

But the idea that such conditions would prevail proved short-sighted.

但事實證明，認為這種情況會普遍存在的想法是短視的。

With both Russia and China, a relationship that had once seemed business-friendly turned into the very opposite.

與俄羅斯和中國的關係曾經看似有利於商業，但現在卻截然相反。

The exit from nuclear energy has made it harder to reach climate goals.

退出核能使實現氣候目標變得更加困難。

And yet, to this day, many people look back nostalgically to Merkel's rule.

然而，時至今日，許多人仍在懷念梅克爾的統治。

According to a recent survey, 61% of Germans believe things were better when she was in charge, suggesting that most blame the current government in fighting for the country's economic woes rather than the legacy of her policies.

根據最近的一項調查，61% 的德國人認為她執政時情況會好一些，這表明大多數人將國家的經濟困境歸咎於現任政府，而不是她的政策遺產。

Whether you see her as the last defender of the liberal world order or as an example of political naivety,

無論你將她視為自由主義世界秩序的最後捍衛者，還是政治幼稚的典範、

梅克爾是一位千載難逢的領導人。