Record number of Chinese fighter jets and warships encircling the island democracy.

中國戰鬥機和軍艦包圍民主島的數量創下歷史新高。

China said these exercises were punishment for Taiwanese independence forces, and a direct response to this speech by Taiwan's president during National Day celebration.

中國稱，這些演習是對臺獨勢力的懲罰，也是對臺灣總統在國慶慶典上講話的直接回應。

It was the second round of Chinese military drills in 2024 around Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its sacred territory.

這是中國 2024 年在臺灣周邊地區舉行的第二輪軍事演習，北京聲稱臺灣是其神聖領土。

Although Taiwan has governed itself for more than 70 years, few nations recognise it as the sovereign state.

雖然臺灣已經自治 70 多年，但很少有國家承認它是主權國家。

China calls Lai a dangerous separatist.

中國稱黎為危險的分裂分子。

And since he's entered office, cross-strait tensions have reached new heights.

自他上任以來，海峽兩岸的緊張局勢達到了新的高度。

And Chinese intimidation has extended beyond just military means.

中國的恫嚇已不僅僅侷限於軍事手段。

We've seen a ratcheting up of pressure, no doubt, from Beijing, trying to make clear that the ultimate goal of unifying Taiwan with China is very much still the priority of Beijing.

毫無疑問，我們已經看到來自中國政府的壓力在增加，他們試圖表明，統一臺灣的最終目標仍然是中國政府的首要任務。

Poor to this conflict is a question about identity, about being Taiwanese.

這一衝突的癥結在於身份認同問題，即作為臺灣人的身份認同問題。

But why is that threatening to China?

但這為什麼會威脅到中國呢？

And could it lead Beijing to take even more dramatic steps?

這是否會導致中國政府採取更為激進的措施？

In June this year, China sent a chill through Taiwan.

今年 6 月，中國在臺灣掀起了一股寒流。

Beijing announced a new interpretation to laws against separatists they believe are trying to split Taiwan from China.

北京宣佈對他們認為試圖將臺灣從中國分裂出去的分裂分子的法律做出新的解釋。

The maximum penalty for these crimes?

這些罪行的最高刑罰是什麼？

Death.

死亡。

In September, activist Yang Zhiyuan became the first Taiwanese person to be convicted under this new interpretation.

9 月，活動家楊致遠成為第一個根據這一新解釋被定罪的臺灣人。

A court in eastern China sentenced him to nine years in prison on charges of succession.

中國東部一家法院以繼承罪判處他九年監禁。

This is Maggie Lewis.

我是瑪吉-劉易斯

She's a professor of Chinese law at Seton Hall University in the US.

她是美國西頓霍爾大學的中國法教授。

He had very limited procedural rights, did not have access to a lawyer or other sort of standard rights of the accused.

他的訴訟權利非常有限，沒有律師，也沒有被告的其他標準權利。

And moreover, his ultimate trial and sentencing was done behind closed doors.

此外，對他的最終審判和判決也是祕密進行的。

Yang is one of more than 800 Taiwanese people who have been detained or simply disappeared in China over the last 10 years.

在過去 10 年中，有 800 多名臺灣人在中國被拘留或失蹤，楊是其中之一。

Some face separatist or other charges.

一些人面臨分裂主義或其他指控。

That's according to Amnesty International.

這是大赦國際的數據。

According to Beijing, offenses punishable by death include advocating for Taiwan to be a member of international organizations that only sovereign countries can join.

據北京稱，可判處死刑的罪行包括主張臺灣成為只有主權國家才能加入的國際組織的成員。

There's going to be a lot of guesswork here and everything's fine until it's not.

這裡會有很多猜測，一切都很好，直到不好。

And we don't know what will happen.

我們不知道會發生什麼。

Lai Ching-de has said nearly all of Taiwan's population could be subject to prosecution.

賴清德曾表示，臺灣幾乎所有人口都可能受到起訴。

That's unless they're willing to accept Chinese Communist Party rule over Taiwan.

除非他們願意接受中國共產黨對臺灣的統治。

But what exactly is this dispute about?

但這場爭端究竟是怎麼回事呢？

To answer that, we need some history.

要回答這個問題，我們需要了解一些歷史。

For the first half of the 20th century, Taiwan was a Japanese colony.

20 世紀上半葉，臺灣是日本的殖民地。

When Japan lost World War II, it ceded Taiwan to the Republic of China under the Chinese Nationalist Party, or KMT.

二戰戰敗後，日本將臺灣割讓給了中國國民黨統治下的中華民國。

But when the KMT lost the Chinese Civil War in 1949, the party fled to Taiwan.

但 1949 年中國內戰失敗後，國民黨逃往臺灣。

In Taipei, they established a temporary capital for the Republic of China, or ROC, which remains Taiwan's official name to this day.

他們在臺北建立了中華民國（ROC）的臨時首都，至今這仍是臺灣的正式名稱。

The victors of that civil war, the Chinese Communist Party, established the People's Republic of China on the mainland that year.

當年，內戰的勝利者中國共產黨在大陸建立了中華人民共和國。

When the KMT arrived in Taiwan, they were concerned the people living there were not Chinese enough.

國民黨到達臺灣時，擔心生活在那裡的人不夠中國化。

So they enforced draconian policies to re-educate them on how to be what they considered properly Chinese.

是以，他們實施了嚴厲的政策，對他們進行再教育，讓他們知道如何成為他們認為合適的中國人。

The KMT declared martial law in 1949, and for decades, governed Taiwan as an authoritarian state.

1949 年，國民黨宣佈戒嚴，幾十年來一直以威權國家的方式統治臺灣。

This is Chen Cui-lien, she's a professor of Taiwanese history at National Taiwan University.

這位是陳翠蓮，她是國立臺灣大學臺灣史教授。

Initially, China's seat in the United Nations was represented by Taipei as the Republic of China.

最初，中國在聯合國的席位由臺北作為中華民國代表。

But that changed in 1971, with Resolution 2758, which said that the People's Republic of China in Beijing was the only legitimate representative of China.

但 1971 年，隨著第 2758 號決議的通過，情況發生了變化，該決議規定北京的中華人民共和國是中國的唯一合法代表。

Many countries then switched diplomatic recognition of China from Taipei to Beijing.

隨後，許多國家將對中國的外交承認從臺北轉向北京。

Most significantly, the United States did in 1979.

最重要的是，美國在 1979 年做到了這一點。

And that had a big impact on how people in Taiwan saw themselves.

這對臺灣人如何看待自己產生了很大影響。

After the US switched diplomatic recognition to Beijing, it didn't completely break ties with Taiwan.

美國轉而承認北京的外交地位後，並沒有完全斷絕與臺灣的關係。

US lawmakers passed the Taiwan Relations Act to define the new unofficial relationship with Taipei.

美國立法者通過了《臺灣關係法》，確定了與臺北的新的非官方關係。

The act says that the US must provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself if threatened militarily.

該法案規定，美國必須向臺灣提供在受到軍事威脅時進行自衛的手段。

It also encouraged Taiwan to take steps toward democratization.

它還鼓勵臺灣採取措施實現民主化。

Martial law was eventually lifted in Taiwan in 1987, driven by a growing sense of Taiwanese identity separate from China.

1987 年，臺灣最終解除了戒嚴，原因是臺灣人日益強烈地意識到自己是臺灣人，是與中國分離的。

That allowed more open discussion of the more oppressive episodes of KMT rule, including the 228 Incident in 1947, in which thousands of local Taiwanese were killed.

這使得人們可以更公開地討論國民黨統治時期的壓迫性事件，包括 1947 年的 228 事件，在那次事件中，數千名臺灣人被殺害。

In 1996, Taiwan held its first direct presidential election.

1996 年，臺灣首次舉行總統直選。

And since then, democracy itself has become a central part of Taiwanese people's identity.

從那時起，民主本身已成為臺灣人民身份認同的核心部分。

Today, more than 60% of Taiwan's population view themselves as solely Taiwanese.

如今，超過 60% 的臺灣人認為自己只是臺灣人。

As a democracy, power has alternated between Taiwan's two main political parties, the KMT and the now-governing Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP.

作為一個民主國家，臺灣的兩個主要政黨--國民黨和現在執政的民進黨--輪流掌權。

And relations with China continue to dominate elections.

與中國的關係繼續主導著選舉。

Both main parties say they want to preserve Taiwan's ambiguous status quo, but look to achieve that by different means.

兩個主要政黨都表示希望維持臺灣的模糊現狀，但希望通過不同的手段來實現這一目標。

The KMT, once staunchly anti-communist, now favours closer ties with Beijing.

國民黨曾經堅決反共，現在卻傾向於與北京建立更密切的關係。

Whereas the DPP is wary of Chinese influence and advocates keeping Beijing at arm's length.

而民進黨則對中國的影響保持警惕，主張與北京保持距離。

So why is the conflict getting worse now?

那麼，為什麼現在衝突愈演愈烈了呢？

Let's outline the key players.

讓我們來概述一下主要參與者。

First, we've got Lai Ching-de.

首先是賴清德。

He's Taiwan's current president.

他是臺灣現任總統。

Lai comes from the ruling DPP, the Taiwanese party Beijing views as separatist.

賴清德來自臺灣執政黨民進黨，該黨被北京視為分裂主義政黨。

His win in the 2024 election marked the first time any party in Taiwan's democratic history has won at three successive elections.

他在 2024 年選舉中獲勝，標誌著臺灣民主歷史上首次有政黨在連續三次選舉中獲勝。

The DPP under Lai says that Taiwan is already a sovereign country, and so doesn't need to declare formal independence, a red line for Beijing.

賴清德上司的民進黨說，臺灣已經是一個主權國家，是以不需要宣佈正式獨立，這是北京的紅線。

Then there's Xi Jinping, the Chinese president.

還有中國國家主席習近平。

He believes Taiwan is a province of China, and has no right to call itself an independent country.

他認為臺灣是中國的一個省，無權稱自己為獨立國家。

He's described reunifying Taiwan with China as one of Beijing's core goals, one that he's suggested he hopes to achieve while leader.

他將統一臺灣描述為中國政府的核心目標之一，並表示希望在擔任領導人期間實現這一目標。

For many in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Australia, and the Philippines, the DPP has been the offers a troubling vision for their own future.

對於臺灣、香港、澳洲和菲律賓的許多人來說，民進黨為他們自己的未來提供了一個令人不安的願景。

Beijing has pointed to their one country, two systems model in Hong Kong as an example of how to reunify Taiwan with the mainland.

北京以香港的一國兩制模式為例，說明如何實現臺灣與大陸的統一。

But the suppression of protests in Hong Kong means most Taiwanese don't have faith their autonomy would be preserved under Beijing's rule.

但香港對抗議活動的鎮壓意味著大多數臺灣人不相信他們的自治會在北京的統治下得到維護。

If a political solution fails, Xi has reserved the right to use military force.

如果政治解決方案失敗，習近平保留使用軍事力量的權利。

But the Chinese leader says any military action would only be directed at a minority of Taiwan's population.

但中國領導人表示，任何軍事行動都只會針對臺灣的少數人口。

Few people in Taiwan would identify as a separatist, but Xi's definition would apply to much more than a minority.

在臺灣，很少有人會認為自己是分裂分子，但習近平的定義適用於更多的人，而不是少數人。

More than 80% of Taiwanese want to maintain some form of the status quo, in which Taiwan's people can decide their future.

超過 80% 的臺灣人希望維持某種形式的現狀，即臺灣人民可以決定自己的未來。

But that status quo would still fall foul of Beijing's red lines.

但這種現狀仍然會觸犯中國政府的紅線。

Chen Yujie is an assistant research professor at Academia Sinica in Taiwan.

Chen Yujie 是臺灣中央研究院的助理研究教授。

That's why the problem has become so intractable.

這就是問題變得如此棘手的原因。

China says reunifying Taiwan is inevitable, but more and more Taiwanese people have a political identity that Beijing is unwilling to accept.

中國說統一臺灣不可避免，但越來越多的臺灣人擁有北京不願接受的政治身份。

This is Wen-Ti Song.

我是宋文迪。

He's a non-resident fellow of the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub.

他是大西洋理事會全球中國中心的非常駐研究員。

For the rest of the world, a conflict over Taiwan would have an enormous impact.

對世界其他國家而言，臺灣衝突將產生巨大影響。

If China invades Taiwan, it could take control of the global semiconductor industry.

如果中國入侵臺灣，就可能控制全球半導體產業。

Beijing could also project power around the region, emboldening China to take stronger action in territorial disputes with other countries, like with the Philippines in the Many U.S. officials believe it would also bring an end to American dominance of the Indo-Pacific, gravely threatening the future of democracy in Asia.

北京還可以在該地區投射力量，使中國有膽量在與其他國家的領土爭端中採取更強硬的行動，比如與菲律賓的領土爭端。 許多美國官員認為，這也將結束美國在印度洋-太平洋地區的主導地位，嚴重威脅亞洲民主的未來。

But for Taiwanese themselves, a Chinese invasion would alter every aspect of their lives.

但對臺灣人自己來說，中國的入侵將改變他們生活的方方面面。

Once Taiwan is absorbed and annexed to the PRC, democracy can no longer exist.

一旦臺灣被中華人民共和國吞併，民主將不復存在。

So the world will lose a democratic stronghold in Asia.

是以，世界將在亞洲失去一個民主據點。

Great loss for democratic countries would be losing a like-minded partner who share the same values of protecting human rights and democracy.

對於民主國家來說，失去一個志同道合的合作伙伴將是巨大的損失，因為他們擁有保護人權和民主的共同價值觀。

That also happens to have a great strategic and economic interest to this democratic alliance.

這對這個民主聯盟來說，也具有重大的戰略和經濟利益。

So how do Taiwanese parties hope tensions can be eased?

那麼，臺灣各黨派希望如何緩解緊張局勢呢？

We've heard from the ruling DPP, but for Taiwan's main opposition, the KMT, more communication is key.

我們已經聽到了執政黨民進黨的聲音，但對於臺灣的主要反對黨國民黨來說，更多的溝通是關鍵。

The last president from the KMT, Ma Ying-jeou, has said that Taiwan shouldn't raise its defence budget because it could provoke China, even as Beijing ramps up military intimidation.

國民黨最後一任總統馬英九曾說，臺灣不應該提高國防預算，因為這可能會激怒中國，儘管北京正在加強軍事恐嚇。

No matter how much you defend yourself, you can never fight a war with the mainland.

無論如何自衛，都無法與大陸作戰。

You can never win.

你永遠贏不了。

You can never win. We try to reduce the potential reason for conflict.

你永遠贏不了。 我們努力減少潛在的衝突原因。

Instead of building up a military, just to wait for a potential conflict with the mainland.

而不是建立軍隊，只是為了等待與大陸的潛在衝突。

But some experts believe even with this approach, China's threats to Taiwan won't disappear.

但一些專家認為，即使採取這種方法，中國對臺灣的威脅也不會消失。

More than that, they say partisan debate in Taiwan about its identity could limit international support.

不僅如此，他們還說，臺灣有關其身份的黨派辯論可能會限制國際支持。

We do need a bipartisan support in Taiwan on this very important issue of Taiwan's sovereignty and separation from the PRC.

在臺灣主權和脫離中華人民共和國這個非常重要的問題上，我們確實需要臺灣兩黨的支持。

But we don't see that right now.

但我們現在看不到這一點。

And that's dangerous.

這很危險。

An October 2024 poll suggested that the majority of Taiwanese don't believe that China will invade in the next five years.

2024 年 10 月的一項民調顯示，大多數臺灣人不相信中國會在未來五年內入侵。

That's despite some U.S. officials saying that China could attack by 2027.

儘管一些美國官員表示，中國可能在 2027 年發動攻擊。

I think we are likely to see more foreign theory coming out of Beijing, of course.

當然，我認為我們可能會看到更多的外國理論從北京傳出。

This is a dangerous time.

這是一個危險的時刻。

Taiwan is doing its best to escalate the tension without losing our own identity and sovereignty.

臺灣正在盡最大努力使緊張局勢升級，同時不喪失我們自己的身份和主權。

Modern Taiwanese identity is a product of its tumultuous history.

現代臺灣身份是其動盪歷史的產物。

From colonial rule, to an authoritarian regime, and now a vibrant democracy.

從殖民統治到獨裁政權，再到現在充滿活力的民主國家。

What comes next?

下一步是什麼？

Xi has said what he calls the Taiwan question shouldn't be passed down to the next generation.

習近平說，他所謂的臺灣問題不應該傳給下一代。

But is there anything that Taiwan and the international community can do to stop him providing the answer?

但是，臺灣和國際社會是否能阻止他提供答案？

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。