Name: 敘利亞獨裁者走了--接下來會怎樣？ (Syria’s dictator is gone — what’s next?)
Uploaded: 2024-12-11T06:42:04.000Z
Duration: 9 min 3 s

在敘利亞，阿薩德政權已經倒臺。

Hafez al-Assad took power in 1971, and ruled Syria with an iron fist.

哈菲茲-阿薩德於 1971 年掌權，鐵腕統治敘利亞。

Then his son Bashar took over, and survived a decades-long civil war, in part by using poison gas and barrel bombs to kill thousands of his own citizens.

後來，他的兒子巴沙爾接管了政權，並在長達數十年的內戰中倖存下來，部分原因是他使用毒氣和桶裝炸彈殺害了成千上萬的本國公民。

Just 11 days ago, he controlled pieces of a failed state.

就在 11 天前，他還控制著一個失敗國家的部分地區。

Then suddenly, rebels launched a surprise attack in Aleppo.

突然，叛軍在阿勒頗發動了突然襲擊。

A few days later, they took Hama, then Homs.

幾天後，他們佔領了哈馬，然後是霍姆斯。

Then late Saturday, as they closed in on the capital Damascus, Assad fled.

週六晚些時候，當他們逼近首都大馬士革時，阿薩德逃跑了。

Syrians have endured decades of oppression under Assad, and millions have lived abroad in poverty as refugees.

敘利亞人在阿薩德的統治下忍受了數十年的壓迫，數百萬人作為難民在國外過著貧困的生活。

So how did the Assad regime collapse so quickly?

那麼，阿薩德政權是如何迅速垮臺的呢？

The Syrian civil war has raged since protesters rose up against Assad in 2011.

自 2011 年抗議者奮起反抗阿薩德以來，敘利亞內戰一直持續不斷。

But by 2020, it had become a so-called frozen conflict.

但到 2020 年，它已成為所謂的凍結衝突。

Five main groups had emerged, but fighting between them had died down.

出現了五個主要團體，但他們之間的戰鬥已經平息。

A coalition of anti-government rebels controlled a pocket of territory in the north and parts of the south.

反政府叛軍聯盟控制了北部和南部部分地區。

在他們之上，是土耳其支持的民兵。

而在東部，則是庫爾德人上司的民兵。

In the southeast, remnants of the terrorist group ISIS remained.

在東南部，恐怖組織 ISIS 的殘餘勢力依然存在。

But otherwise, Assad's government controlled the rest.

但除此之外，阿薩德政府控制著其他地區。

In reality, he was completely reliant on two allies.

實際上，他完全依賴於兩個盟友。

At the height of the civil war, Iran had directed several militias to fight for Assad.

在內戰最激烈的時候，伊朗曾指揮多支民兵隊伍為阿薩德作戰。

The most powerful, Hezbollah, remained in Syria to protect him.

最強大的真主黨留在敘利亞保護他。

Russia helped, too, by conducting airstrikes on the rebels and maintaining several military bases.

俄羅斯也提供了幫助，對叛軍進行了空襲，並保留了幾個軍事基地。

Assad did have an army, but let it grow corrupt and weak.

阿薩德確實有一支軍隊，但卻任由其腐化墮落、軟弱無力。

Without Iran and Russia, he had little to keep him in power.

沒有伊朗和俄羅斯的支持，他幾乎無法繼續掌權。

And in 2023, an event would start a chain reaction that would lead to his downfall.

而在 2023 年，一個事件將引發連鎖反應，導致他的倒臺。

On October 7th, an Iranian-backed militia, Hamas, attacked Israel.

10 月 7 日，伊朗支持的民兵組織哈馬斯襲擊了以色列。

Israel responded not only against Hamas, but also against Iranian-backed militias in Syria, Hezbollah, and even Iran itself, weakening the whole network.

以色列不僅打擊哈馬斯，還打擊伊朗支持的敘利亞民兵、真主黨，甚至伊朗本身，從而削弱了整個網絡。

And Russia was distracted, too, having committed most of its military to its invasion of Ukraine.

俄羅斯也分心了，因為它已將大部分軍隊投入到入侵烏克蘭的行動中。

This gave the rebels in Syria an opportunity to test Assad's forces in Aleppo.

這給了敘利亞叛軍一個機會，讓他們可以在阿勒頗試探阿薩德的部隊。

Celebrating their victory, rebel fighters are in the streets of Aleppo.

叛軍戰士在阿勒頗街頭慶祝勝利。

The Syrian government's clearly abandoned both weapons and ammunition in a hurry.

敘利亞政府顯然匆忙放棄了武器彈藥。

This lightning advance poses the biggest challenge to President Assad in many years.

這次閃電般的推進對阿薩德總統構成了多年來最大的挑戰。

As rebels raced towards Damascus, neither Russia nor Iran were eager to get involved.

當叛軍向大馬士革狂奔時，俄羅斯和伊朗都不急於介入。

Assad was on his own, and his troops knew it.

阿薩德只能靠自己，他的部隊也知道這一點。

Here are some of them reportedly changing out of their military uniforms and fleeing.

據報道，其中一些人正在換下軍裝逃跑。

As his army melted away, Assad went to the airport, where he and his family boarded a plane and fled to Moscow, ending one of the most oppressive regimes in the world.

阿薩德和他的家人在機場登上飛機，逃往莫斯科，結束了世界上壓迫最嚴重的政權之一。

Now several different groups want to replace him.

現在，幾個不同的團體都想取代他。

So when this story broke, obviously there was a deluge of news, and it was quite a challenge trying to separate the noise.

是以，當這則新聞爆出後，顯然有大量新聞湧現，要想分辨出這些噪音是一個相當大的挑戰。

Luckily, I was able to stay organized for this story thanks to my Ground News subscription.

幸運的是，由於訂閱了《地面新聞》，我能夠有條不紊地完成這篇報道。

Ground News is a website and an app that gathers news from all over the world and puts it in one place.

Ground News 是一個網站和一個應用程序，它收集世界各地的新聞並將其放在一個地方。

It then gives me a clearer way to navigate how every story is being told.

這樣我就能更清楚地瞭解每個故事是如何講述的。

Like this story about the collapse of the Assad regime.

比如這篇關於阿薩德政權垮臺的報道。

Because of today's sponsor, Ground News, I'm able to see that almost a thousand news outlets reported on the story.

通過今天的贊助商 Ground News，我看到近千家新聞機構報道了這一事件。

With nearly even reporting across the political spectrum.

I could then filter the news outlets I wanted to read by political bias, recency, location, even government affiliation.

這樣，我就可以根據政治偏見、時間間隔、地點，甚至政府隸屬關係來篩選我想閱讀的新聞媒體。

In this case, I was really interested to see stories rated with a very high factuality.

在這種情況下，我很有興趣看到被評為高度真實的故事。

Ground News even uses these same tags for each story and headline, so that you have all the details on hand.

Ground News 甚至會為每篇報道和標題使用相同的標籤，以便您掌握所有細節。

I also love this interactive map feature that lets me explore news from all over the world.

我還喜歡這個互動地圖功能，它能讓我探索世界各地的新聞。

Ground News has become my first stop during breaking news, and I know if you're a fan of Search Party, this is the kind of thing you're looking for.

地面新聞 "已成為我關注突發新聞的第一站，我知道如果你是 "搜索黨 "的粉絲，這就是你要找的東西。

So we've sponsored with Ground News to offer you 50% off their Vantage plan at the link ground.news.searchparty.

是以，我們與 Ground News 合作，在 ground.news.searchparty 的鏈接上為您提供 Vantage 計劃半價優惠。

You can find more info in the description or by scanning this QR code.

您可以在描述中或通過掃描此二維碼瞭解更多資訊。

This is the biggest discount they've ever offered, so I really recommend you giving Ground News a shot right now.

這是他們有史以來提供的最大折扣，所以我真心建議您現在就試用一下 Ground News。

It's great for anyone who wants a more clear understanding of what's happening in the world.

對於想要更清楚地瞭解世界上正在發生什麼的人來說，這本書非常適合。

Search Party and Ground News share the same mission, that's to make this news more transparent, more understandable.

搜索黨 "和 "地面新聞 "有著共同的使命，那就是讓新聞更透明、更易懂。

Thanks again to Ground News for supporting our work.

再次感謝 Ground News 對我們工作的支持。

This is Abu Mohammed al-Jilani, arriving in Damascus on Sunday.

這是阿布-穆罕默德-吉拉尼，週日抵達大馬士革。

He leads Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the rebel group that led the uprising and who are in the best position to take power.

他上司的 "沙姆人解放軍 "是上司起義的反叛組織，也是最有可能奪取政權的組織。

When Syria's civil war started, Jilani helped form a group called Jabhat al-Nusra.

敘利亞內戰爆發後，吉拉尼幫助組建了一個名為 "勝利陣線 "的組織。

They were Islamist extremists who aimed to turn Syria into an Islamist caliphate.

他們是伊斯蘭極端分子，旨在將敘利亞變成伊斯蘭哈里發國。

Jilani initially allied with other extremist groups, Al-Qaeda and its ally ISIS.

吉拉尼最初與其他極端組織、基地組織及其盟友 ISIS 結盟。

Then in 2016, he formed a new group, which he claimed was not connected to Al-Qaeda.

然後在 2016 年，他成立了一個新組織，並聲稱該組織與基地組織無關。

A year later, he merged with other allegedly moderate groups to form HTS.

一年後，他與其他所謂的溫和組織合併，成立了 HTS。

Today it calls itself an independent entity that follows no organization or party, Al-Qaeda or others.

如今，它自稱是一個獨立實體，不追隨任何組織或黨派、基地組織或其他組織。

But the U.S. regards it as a foreign terrorist organization that maintains contact with Al-Qaeda leadership.

但美國將其視為與基地組織領導層保持聯繫的外國恐怖組織。

A week ago, CNN asked Jilani in this interview what his group stood for.

一週前，美國有線電視新聞網（CNN）在這次採訪中問吉拉尼，他的組織代表著什麼。

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is one of the factions in the region.

沙姆游擊隊是該地區的派別之一。

Now we're talking about a larger project.

現在我們討論的是一個更大的項目。

No one has the right to erase another group.

任何人都無權抹殺另一個群體。

There must be a legal framework that protects and ensures the rights of all.

必須有一個保護和確保所有人權利的法律框架。

He said publicly he wants to protect Syria's minorities, like Christians and Kurds.

他公開表示要保護敘利亞的少數民族，如基督徒和庫爾德人。

But even if Jilani controls the capital, he'll have a hard time controlling the whole country.

但即使吉拉尼控制了首都，他也很難控制整個國家。

In the north, a coalition of rebel groups called the Syrian National Army have different ideologies.

在北部，一個名為 "敘利亞國民軍 "的反叛組織聯盟擁有不同的意識形態。

Some are aligned with Turkey's government, while others still want to establish an Islamic state governed by Sharia law.

一些人與土耳其政府結盟，而另一些人則仍然希望建立一個由伊斯蘭教法統治的伊斯蘭國家。

Additionally, the Kurdish-led groups in the north won't want to give up their autonomy.

此外，北部由庫爾德人上司的團體也不願放棄自治權。

The Kurds are an ethnic group that suffered for decades under Syria's government and value their territory as a safe haven.

庫爾德人是一個在敘利亞政府統治下受苦受難數十年的民族，他們珍視自己的領土，將其視為安全的避風港。

Many Alawites, another sect, supported Assad and may not accept rule by the rebels.

另一個教派--許多阿拉維派支持阿薩德，可能不會接受叛軍的統治。

And ISIS could take advantage of the chaos to try and regain strength.

而 ISIS 可能會趁亂試圖恢復實力。

Elements of Assad's regime also remain, but some appear to be open-minded.

阿薩德政權的成員也依然存在，但有些人似乎持開放態度。

His former prime minister says he's ready to hand over the government to rebels and work with them to form a new one.

他的前總理說，他已準備好將政府交給叛軍，並與他們合作組建新政府。

As these groups jockey for power, they will also have to deal with influence from outsiders.

在這些團體爭權奪利的同時，他們還必須應對來自外部的影響。

Turkey gains the most from Assad's downfall.

土耳其從阿薩德的倒臺中獲益最大。

It's hosting over 3 million Syrian refugees, and a friendly Syria will allow it to send them home.

敘利亞收容了 300 多萬敘利亞難民，一個友好的敘利亞將允許它送難民回家。

In addition, the militias Turkey backs will give it influence, and are more free to attack the Kurdish groups, which Turkey considers terrorists.

此外，土耳其支持的民兵組織將為土耳其帶來影響力，並能更自由地攻擊被土耳其視為恐怖分子的庫爾德組織。

Even as Assad fled, reports emerged of Turkish-backed militias attacking Kurdish towns.

就在阿薩德逃離的同時，有報道稱土耳其支持的民兵襲擊了庫爾德城鎮。

Without Assad, it can't count on Syria to be a buffer between it and Israel, and it's cut off from its most important ally, Hezbollah.

沒有了阿薩德，美國就無法指望敘利亞成為其與以色列之間的緩衝地帶，也就切斷了與其最重要盟友真主黨的聯繫。

If we can establish in a peaceful relations with the new forces emerging in Syria, that's our desire.

如果我們能與敘利亞新出現的力量建立和平關係，這就是我們的願望。

But if we do not, we'll do whatever it takes to defend the state of Israel.

但如果我們不這樣做，我們將不惜一切代價保衛以色列國。

Israel's deployed troops in southern Syria, and claims to have used airstrikes to hit weapons facilities.

以色列在敘利亞南部部署了軍隊，並聲稱使用空襲打擊了武器設施。

It opposed Assad, but will not want an Islamist regime that's even more hostile to replace him.

它反對阿薩德，但不希望一個更加敵對的伊斯蘭政權取代阿薩德。