Name: 【國際議題】阿塞德政權垮台，敘利亞的下一步是什麼？(Assad's Reign Is Over. What's Next for Syria? | WSJ)
Uploaded: 2024-12-12T21:01:10.000Z
Duration: 7 min 3 s

程度副詞

The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad took just over a week.

敘利亞總統巴沙爾-阿薩德下臺僅用了一週多的時間。

It's the end of a 54-year long regime in Syria, but it's just the beginning of a reshifting of power, not just in Syria, but in the whole region.

這是敘利亞一個長達 54 年之久的政權的終結，但這只是權力轉移的開始，不僅在敘利亞，而且在整個地區。

Right now, most Syrians are in a state of euphoria that there is an end to this brutal repression, corruption, exploitation.

現在，大多數敘利亞人都沉浸在結束殘酷鎮壓、腐敗和剝削的喜悅之中。

But what lies ahead is certainly very uncertain for many Syrians.

但對許多敘利亞人來說，未來的前景肯定非常不確定。

Here's how Syria got to this point, and what might happen next, with a group the U.S. designates as a terrorist organization now in charge.

下面我們來看看敘利亞是如何走到這一步的，以及在一個被美國定為恐怖組織的組織現在掌權的情況下，接下來可能會發生什麼。

The civil war against Assad began during the Arab Spring in 2011, where countries throughout the Middle East saw uprisings and revolutions against authoritarian regimes.

反對阿薩德的內戰始於 2011 年的 "阿拉伯之春"，當時整個中東國家都發生了反對獨裁政權的起義和革命。

The Assad regime's immediate response was brute force, even torturing children that had written graffiti on a wall.

阿薩德政權的直接反應是蠻力，甚至折磨在牆上塗鴉的兒童。

And this kind of deep humiliation really angered the entire population, and you saw protests just spontaneously rise up throughout the country.

這種深深的羞辱激怒了全體人民，全國各地自發地掀起了抗議活動。

And the regime unfortunately doubled down on that brute force, and so eventually you saw many of those protesters form their own armed groups to defend their communities.

不幸的是，該政權加倍使用蠻力，所以最終你看到許多抗議者組建了自己的武裝團體來保衛他們的社區。

Rebels even captured the largest city at the time, Aleppo.

叛軍甚至佔領了當時最大的城市阿勒頗。

It took four years, but Assad eventually recaptured it, using chemical weapons against his own people, and largely because of the backing and direct military support of Iran and Russia.

歷時四年，阿薩德使用化學武器對付自己的人民，但最終還是奪回了它，這在很大程度上是由於伊朗和俄羅斯的支持和直接軍事援助。

Syria has actually historic ties to Russia, but I think what Putin saw during the war is an opening to become a great power.

敘利亞實際上與俄羅斯有著歷史淵源，但我認為普京在戰爭期間看到的是一個成為大國的機會。

The Iranians, on the other hand, have long had an alliance with the Assad regime.

另一方面，伊朗人與阿薩德政權結盟已久。

It's an essential element of the so-called Shia Crescent, in which Tehran wants access through Iraq, Syria, and into Lebanon and the Mediterranean through its proxy militias in Iraq, and of course in Lebanon with Hezbollah.

這是所謂的什葉派新月計劃的重要組成部分，德黑蘭希望通過伊拉克、敘利亞，並通過其在伊拉克的代理民兵進入黎巴嫩和地中海，當然還有在黎巴嫩的真主黨。

Over the last 13 years, dozens of groups fought against the Assad regime and each other.

在過去的 13 年裡，數十個團體與阿薩德政權和其他團體之間展開了鬥爭。

But today there are three main ones who hold territory within Syria.

但如今在敘利亞境內佔據領土的主要有三家。

There's the Syrian National Army, or SNA, which is basically a hodgepodge of different rebel groups that had fought the regime all over Syria, but had been displaced to northern Syria in recent years, and they have become this somewhat undisciplined army that is backed by Turkey and unfortunately often has to do Ankara's bidding for that reason, rather than face off with the regime.

敘利亞國民軍（SNA）基本上是不同反叛組織的大雜燴，他們曾在敘利亞各地與敘利亞政權作戰，但近年來流落到了敘利亞北部，他們已經成為一支紀律渙散的軍隊，得到了土耳其的支持，不幸的是，由於這個原因，他們往往不得不聽從安卡拉的命令，而不是與敘利亞政權對抗。

Then there's the Syrian Democratic Forces, another hodgepodge of rebel groups of primarily Kurdish fighters, an ethnic minority.

還有敘利亞民主軍，這是另一個主要由少數民族庫爾德戰士組成的反叛團體大雜燴。

They're backed by the U.S. and often clash with the Turkish-backed SNA.

他們得到美國的支持，經常與土耳其支持的國民軍發生衝突。

And quite critically, they guard the prisons in the northeast that have ISIS fighters in them, so they're a really critical component to stability as well.

至關重要的是，他們負責看守東北部關押有 ISIS 戰士的監獄，是以他們也是穩定局勢的重要組成部分。

And then there's the Hayyit Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS.

還有沙姆人解放軍（Hayyit Tahrir al-Sham），簡稱 HTS。

This is who ultimately led the offensive to capture Damascus.

正是他最終上司了攻佔大馬士革的攻勢。

They were originally established as an al-Qaeda affiliate, led by a man who later led ISIS.

他們最初是作為基地組織的附屬組織成立的，由一名後來上司 ISIS 的男子上司。

They broke ties with al-Qaeda in 2016, but are still considered a terrorist organization by the U.S., Turkey, and others.

他們在 2016 年與基地組織斷絕了聯繫，但仍被美國、土耳其等國視為恐怖組織。

It was in firm control of Idlib city and much of the province beforehand and had ruled that area with an iron fist, but it is one of the more disciplined and independent armed groups in Syria.

在此之前，該組織牢牢控制著伊德利卜市和該省的大部分地區，並以鐵腕手段統治著這一地區，但它是敘利亞境內紀律性和獨立性較強的武裝組織之一。

In late November, HTS advanced from Idlib to Aleppo, which they seized in just a few days, with not just military and violence, but governance.

11 月下旬，"半邊天 "組織從伊德利卜省向阿勒頗省挺進，他們在短短几天內就奪取了阿勒頗省，所憑藉的不僅是軍事和暴力，還有治理。

They immediately went into Aleppo and they tried to prevent looting, protect government institutions.

他們立即進入阿勒頗，試圖阻止搶劫，保護政府機構。

They told former soldiers and government employees to stay in their posts as long as they renounced any kind of, you know, allegiance to Assad.

他們告訴前阿兵哥和政府僱員，只要他們放棄對阿薩德的任何效忠，就可以繼續留任。

They went around and tried to reassure minorities that they would not be harmed.

他們四處奔走，試圖向少數民族保證他們不會受到傷害。

Assad and Russian forces launched airstrikes in Aleppo and Idlib.

阿薩德和俄羅斯軍隊在阿勒頗和伊德利卜發動了空襲。

But it didn't slow HTS, who quickly took Hama, Homs, and eventually moved on to the capital, Damascus.

但這並沒有減緩 HTS 的腳步，他們迅速佔領了哈馬和霍姆斯，並最終進軍首都大馬士革。

Assad fled to Russia, and Syrians celebrated across the country and across the world.

阿薩德逃往俄羅斯，敘利亞全國乃至全世界都在歡慶。

I think what was most shocking is the abandonment of Assad by his stalwart allies, Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah in particular.

我認為最令人震驚的是阿薩德的堅定盟友俄羅斯、伊朗和真主黨對他的拋棄。

Experts believe these allies were too entangled in their own conflicts, with Israel and Ukraine, to have been much help to Assad.

專家們認為，這些盟國與以色列和烏克蘭的衝突糾纏不清，對阿薩德的幫助不大。

To see the Russians abandon Assad in the way that they did in recent days was actually quite shocking.

看到俄羅斯人在最近幾天以這樣的方式拋棄阿薩德，實際上是非常令人震驚的。

They certainly at least want to maintain their naval base and their air base in Syria.

當然，他們至少希望保留在敘利亞的海軍基地和空軍基地。

And yet when the rebels fell Aleppo, messages out of the Kremlin seemed to be, Assad, deal with it, we're busy.

然而，當叛軍攻陷阿勒頗時，克里姆林宮發出的資訊似乎是：阿薩德，處理它，我們很忙。

Turkey seems to be the winner in all of this.

They have potentially green-lighted this offensive in the first place.

他們首先就有可能為這次進攻開綠燈。

They will be able to essentially carry out whatever they want in Syria in the next couple of months as we wait for the new U.S. president to come in.

在接下來的幾個月裡，他們基本上可以在敘利亞為所欲為，因為我們正在等待美國新總統的上任。

And that is a really terrifying future for the Kurdish population in Syria.

對於敘利亞的庫爾德人來說，這真是一個可怕的未來。

This is a historic day for the Middle East.

The collapse of the Assad regime, the tyranny in Damascus offers great opportunity, but also is fraught with significant dangers.

阿薩德政權的垮臺、大馬士革的暴政提供了巨大的機遇，但也充滿了巨大的危險。

Besides the conflicts between Turkish and Kurdish forces, we could see Russia assert power in other countries, or Iran too.

除了土耳其和庫爾德武裝之間的衝突之外，我們還可能看到俄羅斯在其他國家或伊朗也行使權力。

Many people are wondering if they will simply accelerate the nuclear program, which it seems like they're doing, as a different sort of deterrent strategy, or even a chemical weapons program for that matter.

許多人都在猜測，他們是否會加快核計劃（似乎他們正在這麼做），將其作為一種不同的威懾戰略，甚至是化學武器計劃。

And within Syria, the occupying forces are still labeled as a terrorist organization, which could make cooperation and humanitarian aid difficult.

而在敘利亞國內，佔領軍仍被貼上恐怖組織的標籤，這可能會給合作和人道主義援助帶來困難。

We know that they have some bad behavior in Idlib, but that they're also a very pragmatic group and desperately want to get off of the terrorism designation list.

我們知道他們在伊德利卜有一些不良行為，但他們也是一個非常務實的組織，迫切希望從恐怖主義名單上除名。

So there is a vulnerability that was there to exploit.

是以，存在一個可以利用的漏洞。

If people are not allowed to invest, if aid is not allowed to get into the country, it's going to be a real disaster.

如果不允許人們投資，如果不允許援助進入該國，那將是一場真正的災難。

 Likewise, if the designations are lifted without getting any kind of promises or reassurances of what HTS behavior will look like in the future and other groups as well, it could equally be a disaster for Syria's future.

同樣地，如果在沒有取得任何關於HTS未來行為，以及其他團體情況的承諾或保證的情況下，就解除這些指定（制裁／標籤），這同樣可能對敘利亞的未來造成災難性影響。