Name: 世界可以從中國的創新手冊中學到什麼 | Keyu Jin | TED (What the World Can Learn From China’s Innovation Playbook | Keyu Jin | TED)
Uploaded: 2024-12-09T02:17:36.000Z
Duration: 13 min 32 s

基礎被動語態

So, when I was born in China in the early 1980s, my country was still a place of scarcity.

是以，當我在 20 世紀 80 年代初出生在中國時，我的祖國還是一個物資匱乏的地方。

程度副詞

We lived on rationed food, cooked from communal kitchens, and even in Beijing, had three nights of blackouts every week.

我們靠配給食品為生，在公共廚房做飯，即使在北京，每週也有三個晚上停電。

I remember reading poems with my father by candlelight, special memory from times when Chinese people had little.

我還記得和父親一起在燭光下讀詩的情景，那是中國人貧窮時代的特殊記憶。

And fast forward three decades, China has turned into a country of abundance, especially when it comes to technological power.

30 年過去了，中國已成為一個富裕的國家，尤其是在科技實力方面。

From high-tech to business tech to everyday tech, there isn't anything you can't find, only things you can't imagine.

從高科技到商務科技，再到日常科技，沒有你找不到的，只有你想不到的。

I can buy a can of Coke by scanning my face.

通過掃描我的臉，我就能買到一罐可樂。

A few years ago, I called for toothpaste from my hotel room, and it was delivered to me by a robot.

幾年前，我在酒店房間裡打電話要牙膏，機器人就把牙膏送到了我面前。

I've seen people live in remote Tibetan mountains, blast off cool music with Walkmans powered by solar cells, and Chinese solar technology light up homes for African kids who used to study by candlelight just like me when I was growing up.

我見過有人住在偏遠的西藏山區，用太陽能電池供電的隨身聽播放炫酷的音樂，中國的太陽能技術照亮了非洲孩子的家，這些孩子在我成長過程中也曾像我一樣在燭光下學習。

So this striking swell of innovation happened even though China remains a developing country with just a little more than 10,000 dollars of per capita GDP.

是以，儘管中國仍然是一個人均 GDP 僅略高於 1 萬美元的開發中國家，但卻出現瞭如此驚人的創新浪潮。

So today, I want to offer you a different lens to look through, one that shows a unique model that has fostered innovation and technological growth.

是以，今天我想給大家提供一個不同的視角，一個展示促進創新和技術發展的獨特模式的視角。

Now, the system is far from perfect, and like you, I worry about the rising tensions of the tech race and beyond.

現在，這個系統遠非完美，和你一樣，我也擔心科技競賽及其他方面日益加劇的緊張局勢。

But I also believe that as in any relationship, a better understanding of each other is going to help us more likely to find common goals to work on.

但我也相信，就像在任何關係中一樣，更好地瞭解對方會讓我們更有可能找到共同的努力目標。

Rather than a downward spiral that harms all.

而不是螺旋式下滑，傷害所有人。

So I'm an economist, straddling multiple worlds, as it turns out, one foot in London, where I do my research, and one foot in China, where I spend time with my family and also do a bit of work.

是以，我是一名經濟學家，橫跨多個世界，一隻腳在倫敦，我在那裡做研究，一隻腳在中國，我在那裡陪伴家人，也做一些工作。

And if I had a third foot, it would be in the US, where I was educated.

如果我有第三隻腳，那一定是在美國，因為我是在那裡接受教育的。

So I can totally see why there's so much misunderstanding and incomprehension about this megacountry that has defied conventional wisdom.

是以，我完全理解為什麼人們對這個顛覆傳統觀念的大國有如此多的誤解和不理解。

So let's start out with how China's innovating.

那麼，讓我們從中國如何創新談起。

Now, innovation isn't just about inventing the next new thing, like the iPhone or 3D printing or sending people to Mars, technologies that go from zero to one.

現在，創新不僅僅是發明下一個新事物，比如 iPhone、3D 打印或將人類送上火星，這些都是從零到一的技術。

It could be new applications, business models, better processes that lower costs.

這可能是新的應用、業務模式，也可能是能降低成本的更好的流程。

These one-to-N innovations are just as important.

Whatever makes us leaner, cleaner and more productive all count.

只要能讓我們更精幹、更乾淨、更高效，都算數。

So TikTok might not be the first short video app, but it has garnered more than a billion users around the world.

是以，TikTok 可能不是第一個短視頻應用程序，但它已在全球贏得了超過 10 億用戶。

The Chinese EV company BYD didn't make the first prototype.

中國電動汽車公司比亞迪沒有製造第一輛原型車。

But compared to Tesla's price point, the 15,000-dollar EV cabs that I've taken with half a million kilometers of range can meaningfully lead to lower emissions and mass adoption.

但與特斯拉的價位相比，我乘坐過的售價 1.5 萬美元、續航里程達 50 萬公里的電動計程車可以切實降低排放，並得到大規模採用。

And in the same way, Chinese mobile phones might not be as revolutionary as iPhone, but in African countries, their market share is well over half.

同樣，中國手機可能不像 iPhone 那樣具有革命性，但在非洲國家，其市場份額遠遠超過一半。

So this actually solves one big problem for developing countries, which is the lack of access to suitable technologies that they can actually use.

是以，這實際上解決了開發中國家的一個大問題，即無法獲得他們可以實際使用的合適技術。

And even if China doesn't do many zero-to-one technologies yet, at least not yet, it doesn't mean that it can't master high tech.

即使中國還沒有掌握很多 "零對一 "技術，至少現在還沒有，但這並不意味著中國不能掌握高科技。

It conducted the first quantum video call, and it launched the first drone that can carry a passenger in air.

它進行了首次量子視頻通話，還推出了首架可在空中載客的無人機。

Now, yes, many of you would say China's got money, markets, talent and troves of data, which is so critical in this information age.

是的，你們中的許多人會說，中國有資金、市場、人才和大量數據，這在這個信息時代至關重要。

Part of the success was also a whole-nation approach, or what they call a juguo system.

成功的部分原因還在於採用了全國性的方法，也就是人們所說的 "莒國制度"。

So turning an idea or scientific discovery into commercial success requires an innovation ecosystem, the collaboration of universities, national labs and industries, not to mention enormous amount of funding that covers long and uncertain investment cycles.

是以，要將一個想法或科學發現轉化為商業成功，需要一個創新生態系統，需要大學、國家實驗室和產業界的合作，更需要涵蓋漫長而不確定的投資週期的鉅額資金。

Now, many of you might think that groundbreaking technologies are the products of stars, the likes of Steve Jobs or Elon Musk.

現在，許多人可能會認為，突破性技術是史蒂夫-喬布斯（Steve Jobs）或埃隆-馬斯克（Elon Musk）等明星的產品。

But every time you use the internet, the GPS, or yell at your Alexa, you have the US government to thank for.

但每當你使用互聯網、GPS 或對著你的 Alexa 大叫時，你都要感謝美國政府。

We often forget that the Apollo program, the Manhattan Project, even Japan's rise to semiconductor stardom were all horizontal systems with critical state backing.

我們常常忘記，阿波羅計劃、曼哈頓計劃，甚至日本在半導體領域的崛起，都是由國家提供關鍵支持的橫向系統。

Now, China's jugo system is an entire nation behind one strategic goal, mobilizing national resources, casting the net wide, not tallying costs.

現在，中國的 "巨無霸 "體制是舉全國之力，圍繞一個戰略目標，調動全國資源，廣撒網，不計成本。

And it's the same system that's used to reap as many Olympic gold medals as possible.

而這套系統也是用來儘可能多地收穫奧運金牌的。

And so thanks to this ecosystem, China became the largest consumer and producers of EVs in less than a decade, with more cars sold there than in the rest of the world combined in 2020.

得益於這個生態系統，中國在不到十年的時間裡成為最大的電動汽車消費國和生產國，到 2020 年，中國的汽車銷量將超過世界其他國家的總和。

Now, in the West, we often talk about nudging consumers to make better choices.

現在，在西方，我們常說要引導消費者做出更好的選擇。

But in China, mass adoption of next-gen transportation happened like that.

但在中國，下一代交通工具的大規模採用就是這樣發生的。

Well, in part, thanks to the state rolling out four million charging stations around the country, coordinating supply chains from battery makers to control systems and manufacturers, today, there are 140,000 chargers in the US in the entire country.

這在一定程度上要歸功於國家在全國範圍內推廣了 400 萬個充電站，協調了從電池製造商到控制系統和製造商的供應鏈，如今，美國全國共有 14 萬個充電器。

So that is kind of the whole-nation approach, but that's not actually the story I want to tell you.

是以，這就是一種全國性的方法，但實際上這並不是我想告訴你的故事。

There's an even more nuanced story that happens on the ground.

還有一個更微妙的故事發生在當地。

We call it the mayor economy, and it's a decentralized economic model that galvanizes creativity from the ground up.

我們稱之為市長經濟，它是一種分散的經濟模式，從根本上激發創造力。

And contrary to popular perception, it isn't a centralized approach dominated by an almighty state.

與大眾的看法相反，這並不是一種由全能國家主導的中央集權方式。

So NIO is one of the top three EV companies in China.

是以，NIO 是中國三大電動汽車公司之一。

Its cars are driven everywhere on the streets of Beijing and Shanghai.

在北京和上海的大街小巷，隨處可見它的汽車。

Now, two years after it was listed on Nasdaq in 2018, it was on the verge of bankruptcy.

如今，在 2018 年於納斯達克上市兩年後，它已瀕臨破產。

Now, at this point, the local government of Hefei, a small town in eastern China with five million people, convinced it to move its headquarters there.

現在，合肥這個擁有 500 萬人口的中國東部小城的地方政府說服它將總部搬到那裡。

The local government injected a billion dollars in exchange for a 25 percent stake, arranged more loans for the company, and most importantly, organized an entire supply chain around NIO.

當地政府注資 10 億美元，換取了 25% 的股份，為公司安排了更多貸款，最重要的是，圍繞 NIO 組織了整個供應鏈。

It took only a year before NIO's production grew by 81 percent, its market cap went from four to 100 billion dollars, and the local government of Hefei cashed out within a year, and NIO's life was saved.

僅用了一年時間，NIO 的產量就增長了 81%，市值從 40 億美元上升到 1000 億美元，合肥地方政府也在一年內套現，NIO 的命也保住了。

And so for every local government behind a NIO, there's another mayor behind a competitor.

是以，每有一個地方政府支持 NIO，就會有另一個市長支持競爭對手。

And there are literally hundreds of EV companies vying for survival in ruthless competition.

在殘酷的競爭中，數以百計的電動汽車公司都在爭奪生存空間。

So if you are actually a promising tech company, local governments will move mountains to help.

是以，如果你確實是一家很有前途的科技公司，當地政府就會想方設法提供幫助。

為您找到更多的融資，請查看。

They are a one-stop shop, as they like to call themselves.

他們喜歡自稱為 "一站式商店"。

Now, in the vigorous bid for Amazon's second headquarters, there were some creative offers.

現在，在爭奪亞馬遜第二總部的激烈競爭中，出現了一些有創意的提議。

有一個州送了一棵巨大的仙人掌作為禮物。

Another state offered to rename a town Amazon.

另一個州提出為亞馬遜鎮重新命名。

But it basically came to some tax breaks, not quite like what the Chinese mayors had to offer.

但這基本上是一些稅收減免，與中國市長們提供的不太一樣。

But of course, the US government is no stranger to supporting big-shot companies like SpaceX and Tesla, offering billions in benefits.

當然，美國政府對支持 SpaceX 和特斯拉這樣的大公司並不陌生，提供了數十億美元的福利。

But in China, it's really this marriage between the two.

但在中國，這兩者之間其實是一種聯姻。

It's between hyper-charged local officials and intrepid entrepreneurs of all ilk that is at the heart of its model.

其模式的核心是在熱情高漲的地方官員和各種無畏的企業家之間建立聯繫。

So the local government of Hefei, the one that made a killing with NIO, well, it wasn't just after the return on investment, per se.

是以，合肥當地政府，也就是與 NIO 合作賺得盆滿缽滿的政府，並不只是為了投資回報本身。

But it was by luring companies like NIO that is looking to create a mini Silicon Valley of sorts, an industrial clutter, a talent pool, a flourishing retail and service industry.

但是，正是通過吸引像 NIO 這樣的公司，NIO 希望打造一個小型硅谷，一個工業密集區，一個人才庫，一個繁榮的零售和服務業。

That gets them more jobs, more tax revenues.

這為他們帶來了更多的就業機會和稅收。

Even the real estate and land they own are suddenly worth more, all because of the economics of agglomeration and multiplier effects.

甚至他們擁有的房地產和土地也突然變得更值錢了，這一切都是因為經濟學上的聚集和乘數效應。

Because the local mayors are actually an equity stakeholder of the entire city.

因為地方市長實際上是整個城市的股權利益相關者。

So in sum, it's this political centralization and economic decentralization that is actually a simple representation of China's model.

是以，總而言之，這種政治集權和經濟分權實際上就是中國模式的簡單表述。

It's the same model used to urbanize, to grow, and now to innovate.

城市化、發展和現在的創新都採用了同樣的模式。

Now, for all of its successes, there were huge costs, I admit.

我承認，在取得所有成功的同時，也付出了巨大的代價。

Waste left in the wake, inefficient investments, wrong bets.

浪費隨處可見，投資效率低下，下錯了賭注。

Now, some of these challenges are being addressed, thankfully, like environmental degradation, but there are others that remain in urgent need of fixing.

現在，值得慶幸的是，其中一些挑戰正在得到解決，比如環境退化，但還有一些挑戰仍然亟待解決。

So I'm not suggesting that there's some universal recipe, or that it's perfect, or that it can be easily replicated.

所以，我並不是說有什麼萬能祕方，也不是說它完美無缺，更不是說它可以輕易複製。

But what we do know is that there's more than one way of making things work.

但我們知道，讓事情運轉起來的方法不止一種。

And recognizing that there's some wisdom to China's approach doesn't mean endorsing all of it, but I guess there's something to learn from each other.

承認中國的做法有一定的智慧，並不意味著贊同所有的做法，但我想我們可以相互學習。

And for one, China didn't sit on the tarmac waiting for a technological takeoff.

首先，中國沒有坐在停機坪上等待技術起飛。

Instead, it was the big push from the ground up.

相反，這是一次從頭開始的大力推動。

So I came to the US as an exchange student in 1997, and I was mesmerized.

1997 年，我作為交換生來到美國，我被深深地吸引住了。

I saw enormous possibility between the East and the West as they competed, collaborated and spurred each other forward.

我看到了東西方之間相互競爭、相互合作、相互促進的巨大可能性。

I still believe in this, even though frost has set in and there may be chill in the air for some time between the two largest economies in the world.

我仍然相信這一點，儘管世界上最大的兩個經濟體之間已經結霜，空氣中可能會有一段時間的寒意。

Some may fear China's juggernaut innovation.

有些人可能會擔心中國的巨型創新。

Some may not like competition, which is rarely comfortable.

有些人可能不喜歡競爭，因為競爭很少會讓人感到舒服。

But having someone in your rearview mirror helps you keep up the pace.

但是，有人在你的後視鏡裡，會幫助你跟上節奏。

Japan's technological rise in the 1980s pushed the US to overhaul its innovation system and regain the lead in the 1990s.

日本在 20 世紀 80 年代的技術崛起推動美國全面改革其創新體系，並在 20 世紀 90 年代重新奪回領先地位。

The US subsequently did the same for Japan, and as a result, we all have cheaper and better products.

隨後，美國也對日本採取了同樣的做法，結果，我們都擁有了更便宜、更好的產品。

Today, Chinese EV company BYD is pushing Tesla to new heights, and vice versa.

如今，中國電動汽車公司比亞迪正將特斯拉推向新的高度，反之亦然。

Tesla opted for a Chinese battery maker, which is pushing the German government to do more in that space.

特斯拉選擇了一家中國電池製造商，這促使德國政府在這一領域做得更多。

And it's that mutual learning and constant threat of being overtaken that pushes the technology frontier further and beyond.

正是這種相互學習和不斷被超越的威脅，推動著技術前沿不斷向前發展。

But one thing's for sure true, it just doesn't happen in geographical isolation.

但有一點是肯定的，那就是地理位置並不孤立。

So I've come here, and I imagine the possibilities between the two countries, and I understand that there are national security concerns that countries will have to respect.

是以，我來到這裡，想象兩國之間的可能性，我理解各國必須尊重的國家安全關切。

But not everything is about national security.

但並非所有事情都與國家安全有關。

The trillion dollars or more at stake with economic disengagement between the two largest countries can do so much as eradicate malaria, end world hunger, conserve biodiversity and more.

這兩個最大的國家之間的經濟脫節關係到數萬億美元或更多的資金，可以消除瘧疾、結束世界飢餓、保護生物多樣性等等。