My background is chequered. I've got a degree in engineering. I've got an MSc in metallurgy. I've got a PhD in mathematics.

我的背景很複雜。我有一個工程學學位。我有冶金學碩士學位。我有數學博士學位。

All of which, I assure you, is largely useless in taking money out of markets regularly and consistently.

我向你們保證，所有這一切對於定期、持續地從市場中撈錢基本沒有用處。

What I want to try and get across in a few minutes is how to go about putting together a mental framework to be able to take money out of markets consistently and get yourself to a point where you can rely on that income in the same way as you can rely on your salary or the income that you draw from your business.

在這幾分鐘裡，我想告訴大家的是，如何建立一個心理框架，讓自己能夠持續不斷地從市場中獲取資金，讓自己能夠像依靠工資或業務收入一樣，依靠這筆收入。

That's the objective. Now, when I do this seminar at the banks, and I've done it for all the local banks here and I've done it for most of the banks in London, it takes three days and I'm going to try and do it in the next 40 minutes.

這就是目標。現在，當我在銀行舉辦這個研討會時，我已經為這裡的所有在地銀行舉辦過，也為倫敦的大多數銀行舉辦過，它需要三天時間，而我將嘗試在接下來的 40 分鐘內完成。

I've got a lot of slides and I probably won't get through all of the slides, but I'm sure that the guys at Funport will send you the presentation if you wish.

我有很多幻燈片，可能無法全部看完，但如果你願意，我相信 Funport 的人會把演示文稿發給你。

My association with the company is that the founder, Vusi, I don't know where he is, but the founder of Vusi and I have been doing business together since he was 30 minutes old.

我與該公司的聯繫在於創始人 Vusi，我不知道他在哪裡，但我和 Vusi 的創始人從他 30 歲起就一直在一起做生意。

It doesn't seem that long since he was shouting at me when I was actually going to my office in Rivonia.

我去裡沃尼亞的辦公室時，他還在對我大喊大叫，這似乎並不是很久以前的事了。

He used to shout at me and say, Kit-Kat, because he wanted me to bring a Kit-Kat home that evening.

他經常對我大喊 "Kit-Kat"，因為他想讓我當晚帶一個 "Kit-Kat "回家。

So any of the Funport people listening, if you want to bribe the boss, just buy him a Kit-Kat.

如果你想賄賂老闆，就給他買一塊巧克力蛋糕吧。

The thing that stood me in best stand in markets is that in my youth I was an officer in the Royal Marines, and that's given me a level of confidence and discipline that I've drawn upon for a very long time, and 42 years later I can still fit into a uniform.

最讓我在市場上站穩腳跟的是，我年輕時曾是皇家海軍陸戰隊的一名軍官，這讓我擁有了自信和紀律性，我一直都在利用這一點，42 年後的今天，我仍然可以穿上軍裝。

Anybody who feels like having a go can have a go.

任何人都可以一試身手。

I've only got one regret in life, and that one regret is that if I was 35 years younger I'd be a professional rugby player today.

我的人生只有一個遺憾，那就是如果我年輕 35 歲，今天就會成為一名職業橄欖球運動員。

Because I came to South Africa to play rugby, that's why I came here in the first place, and got an injury from it, but I think if I was 35 years younger I'd be a professional rugby player.

因為我來南非是為了打橄欖球，這也是我來這裡的初衷，結果卻是以受傷，但我想，如果我年輕 35 歲，我一定會成為一名職業橄欖球運動員。

So I'm not that good with contraptions, so I'll do my best to make the slides work.

是以，我不太擅長使用這些裝置，所以我會盡力讓幻燈片正常工作。

So, Barry talked about an edge. I'm going to try and talk about an edge.

所以，巴里談到了優勢。我也想談談優勢。

My edge is very similar to what these gentlemen have just presented.

我的優勢與這些先生們剛才介紹的非常相似。

I like to put the fundamentals and the technicals together in the stock market.

我喜歡把股市的基本面和技術面結合起來。

My definition of fundamental analysis is the search for the true value of a share.

我對基本面分析的定義是尋找股票的真正價值。

My definition of technical analysis is the study of trends and turning points.

我對技術分析的定義是研究趨勢和轉捩點。

Ladies and gentlemen, I want to try and find a share that's undervalued, a share that's growing its earnings aggressively, reasonably, safely, that's rising, that's in the throes of a strong trend, and ladies and gentlemen, I want to buy that when the general market is rising.

女士們，先生們，我想找一隻價值被低估的股票，一隻盈利增長積極、合理、安全、正在上升、處於強勁趨勢中的股票，女士們，先生們，我想在大盤上漲時買入它。

And that's what I've been doing for a very long time. I do my best to stick to that.

這也是我長久以來一直在做的事情。我盡力堅持這一點。

Those of you that have been trading for a while will know that sticking to a simple set of trading rules is an awful lot easier to talk about than to do. Am I correct?

做過一段時間交易的人都知道，遵守一套簡單的交易規則說起來容易，做起來難。我說的對嗎？

Yeah.

是啊

Okay?

好嗎？

As if there's little devils on your shoulders shouting at you to do the wrong thing.

就好像有小惡魔在你的肩膀上大喊大叫，要你做錯事情。

So, to make some money in markets, folks, we need some form of a method, yes?

所以，要想在市場上賺點錢，朋友們，我們需要某種形式的方法，對嗎？

We need to manage our money really well, and we need to manage ourselves really well.

我們需要好好理財，也需要好好管理自己。

The three M's.

三個 M

So, I'm going to talk about a methodology.

所以，我要談談方法論。

So, I'm going to ask you a question. Did they put that chart in?

所以，我要問你一個問題。他們把圖表放進去了嗎？

There we go. There's the Aussie 40, I think I asked them to put in.

好了這是我讓他們放進去的澳洲40號機

And my question to you, that's a MACD.

我的問題是，這是一個 MACD。

I know the guy who put the MACD together, a good friend of mine, a guy called Jerry Appel, and he said that when he designed the MACD, an axiom of investment education is the more complicated it sounds, the more you can sell it for.

我認識將 MACD 結合在一起的人，他是我的好朋友，名叫傑瑞-阿佩爾（Jerry Appel），他說在設計 MACD 時，投資教育的一條公理是，聽起來越複雜，你就能賣得越貴。

And he thought that MACD was suitably complicated.

他認為 MACD 複雜得恰到好處。

That's why it's called the moving average, converging, diverging.

這就是為什麼叫移動平均線，收斂，發散。

Jerry Appel and his two sons have got more money under management than Investec.

傑瑞-阿佩爾和他的兩個兒子管理的資金比天達集團還多。

Just the three of them.

只有他們三個

And a little room in a place called Derry, Maine.

還有緬因州德里的一個小房間。

Stephen King writes his books just across the room.

斯蒂芬-金就在房間對面寫書。

Is the JSC going to go up or down on Monday?

下週一，聯合證券委員會是上漲還是下跌？

My question to you.

我的問題是

What do you think?

你怎麼看？

Down? Young man says down.

向下？年輕人說 "下"。

Any other?

還有嗎？

Bradley, what do you think? You're the expert.

布拉德利，你怎麼看？你是專家

Up?

向上？

Well, folks, in my pocket, I have the secret.

好了，夥計們，我的口袋裡有祕密。

I can find it.

我能找到它。

I have the secret.

我有祕訣

It's a five-ran coin.

這是一枚五連硬幣。

Now, on one side, there's a furry little animal.

現在，一邊有一隻毛茸茸的小動物。

You see that?

看到了嗎？

And on the other side, we've got a coat of arms.

另一側則是盾形紋章。

Clearly, the coat of arms is going up, and the furry little animal is going down.

很明顯，紋章在上升，而毛茸茸的小動物在下降。

Let's see if I can get this right.

讓我們看看我能不能把它弄好。

You were right.

你是對的。

The head, it's going up.

頭，要抬起來了。

Okay?

好嗎？

The head, it's going up.

頭，要抬起來了。

Okay?

好嗎？

Would you trade like that?

你會這樣交易嗎？

No? Okay.

沒有？好吧

But I assure you, most of you are trading like that already.

但我向你們保證，你們中的大多數人已經在這樣做交易了。

There's a great deal of randomness out there, I assure you.

我向你保證，外面有很多隨機事件。

But I wouldn't like to trade like that either.

但我也不想這樣交易。

So, my next question to you.

那麼，我的下一個問題是

Here we go.

開始了

Let's play and think about a special game.

讓我們來玩一玩、想一想一個特別的遊戲。

So, here's the game.

遊戲是這樣的

If you can successfully predict heads or tails, and you're correct, if you bet five rand, and you're correct,

如果你能成功預測人頭或人尾，而且你是正確的，如果你下注 5 蘭特，而且你是正確的、

I'll give you ten back.

我還你十塊

Clearly, if you're incorrect in your prognosis, I'm going to take the five.

很明顯，如果你的預言是錯誤的，我就要拿五分。

Now, you've already said that you wouldn't trade with a coin, but would you play that game?

現在，你已經說過你不會用硬幣交易，但你會玩這個遊戲嗎？

Ladies and gentlemen, that's my question to you.

女士們，先生們，這就是我要問你們的問題。

Would you play that game?

你會玩這個遊戲嗎？

Yes or no?

是還是不是？

Well, folks, I haven't got a lot of time to play this.

各位，我沒有太多時間玩這個。

It's a cracking game to play.

這是一款非常好玩的遊戲。

And it's the basis of how you can become consistent and take money from somebody else, because that's what you're doing.

這也是你如何能夠始終如一地從別人那裡賺錢的基礎，因為這就是你正在做的事情。

Because in ten chucks of the coin, would you agree that you should be right 50% of the time?

因為在十次擲硬幣的過程中，你會同意你應該有 50%的時間是正確的嗎？

Yeah?

是嗎？

Now, when you're right,

現在，當你是正確的、

I'm going to pay you twice as much as when you're wrong.

你錯了，我會付你雙倍的錢。

So, in ten throws of the coin, when you're right,

所以，在十次擲硬幣中，當你對的時候，

I'm going to pay you five times two, which is ten.

我會付你五乘以二，也就是十。

Yes?

什麼事？

And when you're wrong,

當你錯的時候

I'm going to remove five times one, which is five.

我要去掉 5 乘以 1，也就是 5。

Thus, you make ten, you make five profit.

這樣，你賺十塊，就有五塊利潤。

If you bet a round on every time you chuck the coin in the air, on average, you're going to make 50 cents.

如果你每次把硬幣拋向空中都下注一輪，平均下來，你會賺到 50 美分。

You have now designed a positive expectancy system.

您現在已經設計了一個正期望值系統。

So, if you can find somebody to underwrite that, then Barry, that's your edge.

所以，如果你能找到人承保，那麼巴里，這就是你的優勢。

Okay.

好的

And that is the objective, folks.

這就是目標，各位。

Now, with the Finport guys, with GT, you should be able to get your hit rate above 50%.

現在，有了芬波特的人，有了 GT，你的命中率應該能超過 50%。

But if you can be right 50% of the time, and you can make twice as much when you're right as you lose when you're wrong, then you've got a method of making money for the rest of your days.

但是，如果你有 50%的時間是對的，而且對的時候賺的錢是錯的時候虧的錢的兩倍，那麼你就有了一個賺錢的方法，可以讓你終生受益。

And that is the challenge, to learn how to play the game over and over and over again without fear or hesitation.

這就是挑戰，學會如何毫無畏懼、毫不猶豫地一遍又一遍地玩遊戲。

Okay.

好的

So, it's a cracking game to play.

是以，這是一款非常好玩的遊戲。

Would you play the game?

你會玩這個遊戲嗎？

Now, in trading, the number of times that you're right is called the hit rate.

在交易中，正確的次數被稱為命中率。

And Lord only knows we're all paranoid about the hit rate.

只有上帝知道，我們都對命中率心存疑慮。

We want to be right at all costs.

我們不惜一切代價要做正確的事。

There are four trading fears.

有四種交易恐懼。

One is being wrong.

一個是錯誤。

Two is losing money.

二是虧損。

Three is missing out.

三是錯過。

And four is leaving money on the table.

四是把錢留在桌子上。

Those of you that are under 50 are probably in a safe place because I know for a fact that most men over 50 are more scared of being wrong and losing money than they are of death.

你們中 50 歲以下的人可能比較安全，因為我知道，大多數 50 歲以上的男人害怕出錯和損失錢財比害怕死亡更甚。

Okay.

好的

Am I correct?

我說的對嗎？

We've got the death thing all sorted out.

我們已經把死亡的事情都解決了。

Well, it's not the end of the world, okay?

這又不是世界末日，好嗎？

But to be wrong or lose money is an issue.

但出錯或賠錢是個問題。

So, that other thing that's important in trading is the risk to reward ratio.

是以，交易中另一個重要的因素就是風險與回報的比率。

So the money that you make is a function of both the hit rate and the risk to reward.

是以，你賺到的錢是命中率和風險回報率的函數。

And most of us just think about the hit rate.

而我們大多數人只考慮命中率。

So, three things.

所以，有三件事。

Now, if you do a search on the internet and that's a margin call, don't take it, okay?

現在，如果你在網上搜索到這是追加保證金，就不要接受，好嗎？

Don't take it.

別拿

Just ignore it completely.

完全無視它。

A margin call is what happens, folks, when you run out of loot.

夥計們，當你的戰利品用完時，就會發生追加保證金的情況。

Lads from GT are going to phone you here and say, more money or we close the whole bloody lot.

GT 的小夥子們會給你打電話說，再不給錢，我們就把這鬼地方全關了。

Okay.

好的

So, if you get a call, just don't take it.

所以，如果你接到電話，千萬別接。

So, if you do a search on the internet, you're going to find lots and lots of systems where the vendor says that he, you're right, 92% of the time.

是以，如果你在互聯網上搜索，你會發現很多很多的系統，供應商說他，你是對的，92% 的時間。

And they all sound wonderful.

它們聽起來都很棒。

But the problem with those systems is that they've got to open up their stop losses so wide in relation to their targets that they don't make any money.

但這些系統的問題在於，它們必須把止損點與目標點的距離拉得太大，以至於它們賺不到錢。

This was brought home to me a few weeks ago.

幾周前，我終於明白了這一點。

This is a chap in London who was advertising a Forex system.

這是一個在倫敦為外匯系統做廣告的小夥子。

Somebody spoke about Forex and he said he's right 90% of the time.

有人談到了 Forex，他說他 90% 的時間都是對的。

Sounds wonderful, doesn't it?

聽起來很棒，不是嗎？

But when he was right, in his own literature he said this, when he was right he makes 10 ticks and when he's wrong he loses 90.

但當他是對的時候，他在自己的文獻中是這樣說的：當他是對的時候，他能賺 10 點，而當他是錯的時候，他就會損失 90 點。

What's the expectancy of that system?

該系統的預期壽命有多長？

9 times 10 when he's right minus 1 times 90 when he's wrong and that means the system actually loses money.

他對的時候是 10 的 9 次方，他錯的時候是 90 的 1 次方，這意味著系統實際上是在賠錢。

Sounds wonderful 90% of the time but he loses money.

90% 的時間聽起來很美好，但他會賠錢。

So, folks, just remember that that edge, that edge is a mixture of three things.

所以，朋友們，請記住，優勢、優勢是三者的混合體。

It's a mixture of one, the hit rate, it's a mixture of the risk to reward and the commissions.

這是一個混合體，一個是命中率，一個是風險與回報和佣金的混合體。

And there's no doubt that if you're trying to scalp a one-minute chart you need to be really, really good because those commissions mount up.

毫無疑問，如果你想在一分鐘圖表中剝頭皮，你必須非常非常出色，因為佣金會越來越高。

Every time you press the wee button there's three or four ticks to be paid.

每按一次 "Wee "鍵，就要支付三到四次 "Tick"。

And that's hit rate, risk to reward and commissions.

這就是命中率、風險回報率和佣金。

So, folks, somebody mentioned the Forex market.

所以，朋友們，有人提到了外匯市場。

If you buy the pound against the dollar with a 50 point stop and the target's 100 points if you can get that right 50% of the time you've got it made.

如果你買入英鎊兌美元，止損 50 點，目標 100 點，如果有 50%的時間你能做到這一點，你就成功了。

And the only thing remaining is to learn how to play the game.

剩下的就是學習如何玩遊戲了。

And it is a game that we play with ourselves.

這是一場我們與自己玩的遊戲。

And playing the game is the tough bit.

而玩遊戲才是最難的。

Now, I want you to use your wonderful imagination because in this vessel we have 100 one-ran coins.

現在，我希望你們發揮自己的想象力，因為在這個容器裡，我們有 100 枚一盎司硬幣。

Yeah?

是嗎？

You see them?

你看到他們了嗎？

Right?

對不對？

Now, on every decision, on every trade, there's two decisions.

現在，每一個決定，每一筆交易，都有兩個決定。

One, is the darn thing going to go up or is the darn thing going to go down?

第一，這該死的東西是會上升還是會下降？

Now, Barry alluded to the concept of going short which might be new to some of you but you can take a bet that the market's going to fall.

現在，巴里提到了 "做空 "的概念，這對你們中的一些人來說可能很陌生，但你可以賭市場會下跌。

And if it does fall, you're going to make some money.

如果它真的下跌，你就能賺到一些錢。

Some money.

一些錢

So...

所以...

That's the first decision.

這是第一個決定。

So, the man in the green.

那麼，那個穿綠衣服的人。

Heads or tails?

正面還是反面？

Tails.

尾巴

The market's going to fall.

市場會下跌

The bear in the green.

綠衣熊

We've got 100 coins.

我們有 100 枚硬幣

The second decision, ladies and gentlemen is how much do you want to bet?

女士們先生們，第二個決定是你們想賭多少？

You can bet one coin.

您可以下注一枚硬幣。

You can bet five coins.

您可以下注五個硬幣。

Or in the parlance of the commodity futures market you can bet the farm, the whole bloody lot.

或者用商品期貨市場的術語來說，你可以賭上整個農場。

Farmers love betting the farm.

農民喜歡在農場下注。

Okay.

好的

So, the man in the green says the market's going to fall.

所以，穿綠衣服的人說市場會下跌。

Tails.

尾巴

How many would you like to bet, madam?

你想賭多少，夫人？

One?

一個？

Five?

五個？

Twenty?

二十歲？

Seventy-five?

七十五？

Twenty.

二十個

Okay.

好的

So, let's trade.

那麼，我們來交易吧。

What we're doing is we're simulating a trading system that's right 50% of the time that makes us twice as much when it's right as it loses when it's wrong.

我們正在做的是模擬一個交易系統，這個系統有 50% 的時間是對的，當它對的時候，我們賺的錢是它錯的時候虧的錢的兩倍。

I assure you that if you were a day trader in the forex market you would sell your granny for that system.

我向你保證，如果你是外匯市場的日間交易者，你會為了這個系統賣掉你的奶奶。

Okay.

好的

Your granny.

你奶奶

Because most intraday systems will risk 30 to make 50.

因為大多數日內系統都會冒 30 的風險來賺 50。

And if the vendor is honest it's not right that much more than 50% of the time.

如果供應商誠實的話，50% 以上的情況都是不正確的。

So, the man in the green, are you feeling lucky, lad?

那麼，綠衣人，你覺得自己幸運嗎，小夥子？

Okay.

好吧

Don't take it too personally.

別太在意。

That's not a great throw.

這不是一個好球。

A pound coin is much easier.

英鎊硬幣要容易得多。

Sorry, mate.

對不起，夥計。

It's going up.

它在上升。

You lost.

你輸了

Sorry.

對不起。