Introductions are really funny.

介紹真的很有趣。

They paid me $60 so I wore a tie.

他們付我 60 美元，所以我打了領帶。

How many people, how many of you are 36 years, older than 36 years old?

你們當中有多少人是 36 歲，有多少人超過 36 歲？

Yeah.

是啊

You were born pre-computer.

你出生時還沒有電腦。

The computer is 36 years old.

這臺電腦已經 36 歲了。

And there's something sort of, I think that there's going to be a little slice in the timeline of history as we look back.

我認為，在我們回顧歷史的時候，歷史的時間軸上會有一個小切口。

Pretty meaningful slice right there.

很有意義的一刀。

A lot of you are products of the television generation.

你們很多人都是電視一代的產物。

I'm pretty much a product of the television generation.

我是電視一代的產物。

But to some extent starting to be a product of the computer generation.

但在某種程度上，它開始成為電腦時代的產物。

And the kids growing up now are definitely products of the computer generation.

而現在長大的孩子們絕對是電腦一代的產物。

And in their lifetimes the computer will become the predominant medium of communication just as the television took over from the radio, took over from even the book.

在他們的有生之年，電腦將成為最主要的通訊媒介，就像電視取代收音機，甚至取代書籍一樣。

Boy, I'll talk about anything you want to talk about today.

孩子，今天你想說什麼我就說什麼。

I have about 15 or 20 minutes of stuff that I just wanted to cover really quickly.

我有大約 15 或 20 分鐘的內容，我只想快速介紹一下。

And then whatever you want to talk about we can talk about.

然後你想聊什麼，我們就聊什麼。

How's that?

怎麼樣？

Yeah?

是嗎？

How many of you own an Apple?

你們當中有多少人擁有蘋果手機？

Any?

有嗎？

Or just any personal computer?

還是任何個人電腦？

Uh-oh.

啊哦

How many of you have used one or seen one?

你們當中有多少人用過或見過它？

Anything like that?

有類似的情況嗎？

Good.

很好。

Okay.

好的

Let's start off with what is a computer?

我們先來看看什麼是計算機？

What is a computer?

什麼是計算機？

It's really simple.

其實很簡單。

It's just a simple machine.

這只是一臺簡單的機器。

But it's a new type of machine.

但這是一種新型機器。

The gears, the pistons have been replaced with electrons.

齒輪、活塞已被電子取代。

How many of you have ever seen an electron?

有多少人見過電子？

That's the problem with computers.

這就是電腦的問題所在。

Is that you can't get your hands on the actual things that are moving around.

是你無法接觸到正在移動的實物。

You can't see them.

你看不到他們。

And so they tend to be very intimidating because in a very small space there's billions of electrons running around and we can't really get a hold on exactly what they look like.

是以，它們往往非常嚇人，因為在一個非常小的空間裡，有數十億個電子在跑來跑去，我們無法真正掌握它們到底是什麼樣子。

Computers are very adaptive.

計算機的適應能力很強。

It's a very adaptive machine.

這是一臺適應性很強的機器。

We can move the electrons around differently to different places depending upon the current state of affairs, the results of the last time we moved the electrons around.

我們可以根據當前的情況，也就是上次電子移動的結果，將電子移動到不同的地方。

So if you were here last night and you heard about the brain and how it's very adaptive, a computer is in the same way very, very adaptive.

是以，如果你昨晚在這裡聽說了大腦以及它的適應能力，那麼計算機也同樣具有非常非常強的適應能力。

Second thing about a computer, it's very new.

關於電腦的第二件事是，它非常新。

It was invented 36 years ago in 1947.

它發明於 36 年前的 1947 年。

The world's first degree in computer science offered by a university, which was the University of California at Berkeley, and it was a master's degree, was offered in 1968, which means the oldest person that has a degree in computer science is 39 years old and the average age of professionals at Apple is under 30.

世界上第一個由大學提供的計算機科學學位是 1968 年由加州大學伯克利分校提供的碩士學位，這意味著擁有計算機科學學位的最大年齡是 39 歲，而蘋果公司專業人員的平均年齡不到 30 歲。

So it's a field that's dominated by fairly young people.

是以，這是一個以年輕人為主的領域。

Third thing about computers, they're really dumb.

關於電腦的第三件事，它們真的很蠢。

They're exceptionally simple, but they're really fast.

它們異常簡單，但速度非常快。

The raw instructions that we have to feed these little microprocessors, even the raw instructions that we have to feed these giant Cray-1 supercomputers are the most trivial of instructions.

我們為這些小型微處理器提供的原始指令，甚至我們為這些巨型 Cray-1 超級計算機提供的原始指令，都是最瑣碎的指令。

They're get some data from here, get a number from here, fetch a number, add two numbers together, test to see if it's bigger than zero, go put it over there.

它們是從這裡獲取一些數據，從這裡獲取一個數字，獲取一個數字，將兩個數字相加，測試它是否大於零，然後把它放在那裡。

It's the most mundane thing you could ever imagine.

這是你能想象到的最平凡的事情。

But the key thing about it is that let's say I could move 100 times faster than anyone in here.

但最關鍵的是，假設我的移動速度比這裡的任何人都快 100 倍。

In the blink of your eye, I could run out there and I could grab a bouquet of fresh spring flowers or something and I could run back in here and I could snap my fingers and you'd all think I was a magician or something.

一眨眼的工夫，我就能跑出去，拿上一束新鮮的迎春花什麼的 然後跑回來，打個響指，你們都會以為我是魔術師什麼的。

And yet I was basically doing a series of really simple instructions, moving, running out there, grabbing some flowers, running back, snapping my fingers, but I could just do them so fast that you would think that there was something magical going on.

然而，我基本上是在做一系列非常簡單的指令，移動、跑出去、抓起一些花、跑回來、打響指，但我可以做得如此之快，以至於你會覺得有什麼神奇的事情發生了。

It's the exact same way with the computer.

電腦也是如此。

It can go grab these numbers and add them together and throw them over here at the rate of about a million instructions per second.

它能以每秒約一百萬條指令的速度，抓取這些數字並將它們相加，然後扔到這裡。

And so we tend to think there's something magical going on when in reality there's just a series of these simple instructions.

是以，我們往往會認為這裡面有什麼神奇的東西，而實際上只是一系列簡單的指令。

Now, what we do is we take these very, very simple instructions and we, by building a collection of these things, build a higher level instruction.

現在，我們所要做的就是利用這些非常非常簡單的指令，通過建立這些指令的集合，構建更高級別的指令。

So instead of saying turn right, left foot, right foot, left foot, right foot, extend hand, grab flowers, run back, I can say, could you go get some flowers?

是以，與其說右轉、左腳、右腳、左腳、右腳、伸手、抓花、跑回來，我可以說，你能去拿些花嗎？

Could you pour a cup of coffee?

你能倒一杯咖啡嗎？

And we have started in the last 20 years to deal with computers in higher and higher levels of abstraction.

在過去的 20 年裡，我們開始以越來越高的抽象層次來處理計算機。

But ultimately these levels of abstraction get translated down into these stupid instructions that run really fast.

但最終，這些抽象層次被轉化為運行速度極快的愚蠢指令。

Let's look at the brief history of computers.

讓我們來看看計算機的簡史。

The best way to understand it is probably an analogy.

最好的理解方式可能是打個比方。

Take the electric motor.

就拿電動機來說吧。

The electric motor was first invented in the late 1800s.

電動機最早發明於 19 世紀末。

And when it was first invented, it was only possible to build a very, very large one, which meant that it could only be cost justified for very large applications.

而且在發明之初，只能建造一個非常非常大的裝置，這意味著只有在非常大的應用中才能證明其成本的合理性。

And therefore electric motors did not proliferate very fast at all.

是以，電機的普及速度並不快。

But the next breakthrough was when somebody took one of these large electric motors and they ran a shaft through the middle of a factory and through a series of belts and pulleys shared the horsepower of this one large electric motor on 15 or 20 medium-sized workstations, thereby allowing one electric motor to be cost justified on some medium-scale tasks.

但下一個突破是，有人從這些大型電動機中挑選了一臺，將一根軸穿過工廠中間，通過一系列皮帶和滑輪，將這臺大型電動機的馬力分享給 15 或 20 箇中型工作站，從而使一臺電動機在一些中型任務中的成本合理化。

And electric motors proliferated even further then.

隨後，電動馬達進一步普及。

But the real breakthrough was the invention of the fractional horsepower electric motor.

但真正的突破是分馬力電機的發明。

We could then bring the horsepower directly to where it was needed and cost justify it on a totally individual application.

這樣，我們就可以直接將馬力帶到需要的地方，並根據完全個性化的應用情況進行成本核算。

And I think there's about 55 or so fractional horsepower motors now in every household.

我想現在每家每戶都有 55 臺左右的分馬力電機。

If we look at the development of computers, we see a real parallel.

如果我們看一下計算機的發展，就會發現一個真正的平行現象。

The first computer was called the ENIAC in 1947.

1947 年，第一臺計算機被稱為 ENIAC。

It was developed particularly for ballistic military calculations.

它是專門為彈道軍事計算而開發的。

It was giant.

它是個龐然大物。

Hardly anyone got a chance to use it.

幾乎沒有人有機會使用它。

The real breakthrough, the next real breakthrough was in the 60s with the invention of what was called time sharing.

真正的突破，下一個真正的突破是在 60 年代，當時發明了所謂的時間共享。

And what we did was we took one of these very large computers and we shared it.

我們所做的就是把其中一臺非常大的電腦拿出來共享。

Since it could execute so many instructions so quickly, we'd run some on Fred's job over here and then we'd run some on Sally's job and we'd run some on Don's job and we'd run some on Susie's job.

由於它能快速執行如此多的指令，我們會在弗雷德的工作上運行一些指令，然後在莎莉的工作上運行一些指令，在唐的工作上運行一些指令，在蘇西的工作上運行一些指令。

And we'd share this thing and it was so fast that everyone would think they had the whole computer to themselves.

我們共享這個東西，速度快得讓每個人都以為自己擁有了整臺電腦。

Time sharing was what really started to proliferate computers in the 60s.

時間共享是 60 年代計算機開始普及的真正原因。

And most of you, if you've used computer terminals connected with some umbilical cord to some large computer somewhere else, that's time sharing.

而你們中的大多數人，如果使用的是通過臍帶連接到其他地方的大型計算機的計算機終端，那就是時間共享。

That's what got computers on college campuses in large numbers.

這就是電腦大量進入大學校園的原因。

The reason Apple exists is because we stumbled on to fractional horsepower computing five years before anybody else.

蘋果公司之所以存在，是因為我們比別人早五年偶然發現了分馬力計算技術。

That's the reason we exist.

這就是我們存在的理由。

We took these microprocessor chips, which is sort of a computer on a chip, and we surrounded it with all the other stuff you need to interact with a computer.

我們將這些微處理器芯片，也就是一種芯片上的計算機，與計算機互動所需的所有其他東西一起將其包圍起來。

And we made a computer that was about 13 pounds.

我們製造了一臺重約 13 磅的電腦。

And people would look at it and they'd say, well, where's the computer?

人們看了之後會說，電腦在哪裡？

This is just the terminal.

這只是終端。

And we'd say, no, that is the computer.

我們會說，不，那是電腦。

And after about five minutes of repeating this, finally a light bulb would go on in their minds.

這樣重複了大約五分鐘後，他們的腦海中終於出現了一盞明燈。

And they'd decide if they didn't like it, they could throw it out the window or run over it with their car.

他們決定，如果不喜歡，就把它扔出窗外，或者用車碾過去。

But that this was the entire computer.

但這是整臺電腦。

That's why we exist.

這就是我們存在的意義。

Fractional horsepower computing.

分馬力計算

This fractional horsepower computing has created a revolution.

這種零馬力計算帶來了一場革命。

It was invented in 1976, the first personal computer.

它發明於 1976 年，是第一臺個人電腦。

This year, in 1983, the industry is going to ship over three million of the little buggers.

今年，即 1983 年，該行業將運送 300 多萬隻小蟲子。

Three million.

三百萬

By 1986, we're going to ship more computers than automobiles in this country.

到 1986 年，我國的電腦運輸量將超過汽車運輸量。

And let me digress for a minute.

我想說點題外話。

One of the reasons I'm here is because I need your help.

我來這裡的原因之一是我需要你們的幫助。

If you've looked at computers, they look like garbage.

如果你看過電腦，它們看起來就像垃圾。

All the great product designers are off designing automobiles or they're off designing buildings.

所有偉大的產品設計師都去設計汽車或建築了。

But hardly any of them are designing computers.

但他們中幾乎沒有人在設計計算機。

And if we take a look, we're going to sell those three million computers this year.

如果我們看一看，今年我們將售出 300 萬臺電腦。

We're going to sell those ten million computers in 1986, whether they look like a piece of shit or they look great.

我們將在 1986 年賣出 1000 萬臺電腦，不管它們看起來像一坨屎還是很棒。

It doesn't really matter because people are going to just suck this stuff up so fast that they're going to do it no matter what it looks like.

這其實並不重要，因為人們會很快地吸收這些東西，不管它看起來像什麼，他們都會去做。

And it doesn't cost any more money to make it look great.

而且不需要花更多的錢就能讓它看起來很棒。

There are going to be these objects, this new object, that's going to be in everyone's working environment and is going to be in everyone's educational environment and is going to be in everyone's home environment.

未來，每個人的工作環境、教育環境和家庭環境中都將出現這些物體，這種新的物體。

And we have a shot at putting a great object there.

我們有機會把一個偉大的物體放在那裡。

Or if we don't, we're going to put one more piece of junk object there.

或者，如果我們不這樣做，我們就在那裡再放一個垃圾物體。

By an 86, 87 pick a year, people are going to be spending more time interacting with these machines than they do interacting with their big automobile machines today.

到 86、87 年時，人們與這些機器互動的時間將超過今天與大型汽車機器互動的時間。

People are going to be spending two, three hours a day sometimes interacting with these machines, longer than they spend in a car.

人們有時每天要花兩三個小時與這些機器互動，比在汽車裡的時間還長。

And so the industrial design, the software design, and how people interact with these things certainly must be given the consideration that we give automobiles today, if not a lot more.

是以，工業設計、軟件設計，以及人們如何與這些東西互動，都必須得到我們今天對汽車的考慮，甚至更多的考慮。

And if you take a look, what we've got is we've got a situation where most of the automobiles are not being designed in the United States, Europe, Japan.

如果你看一看，我們現在的情況是，大部分汽車都不是在美國、歐洲和日本設計的。

Televisions, audio electronics, watches, cameras, bicycles, calculators, you name it, most of the objects of our life are not designed in America.

電視機、音響電子產品、手錶、照相機、自行車、計算器......我們生活中的大多數物品都不是美國設計的。

We've blown it.

我們搞砸了

We've blown it from an industrial point of view because we've lost the markets to the foreign competitors.

從工業角度看，我們已經搞砸了，因為我們已經把市場拱手讓給了外國競爭對手。

We've also blown it in a design point of view.

我們還從設計角度進行了改進。

And I think we have a chance, focusing on this new computing technology, meeting people in the 80s, the fact that computers and society are out on a first date in the 80s, we have a chance to make these things beautiful and we have a chance to communicate something through the design of the objects themselves.

我認為，我們有機會專注於這種新的計算技術，與 80 年代的人們相遇，計算機和社會在 80 年代第一次約會，我們有機會讓這些東西變得美麗，我們有機會通過物品本身的設計傳達一些資訊。

In addition to that, we're going to spend over $100 million in the next 12 months on media advertising.

除此之外，我們還將在未來 12 個月內投入 1 億多美元用於媒體廣告。

Apple alone, IBM will spend at least an equivalent amount.

僅蘋果公司一家，IBM 就將花費至少同等數額的資金。

And we generate tens of millions of dollars' worth of brochures, posters, more than the auto industry, again, as a comparison.

我們製作的宣傳冊和海報價值數千萬美元，比汽車行業還多。

And this stuff can either be great or it can be lousy.

這些東西要麼很棒，要麼很糟糕。

And we need help.

我們需要幫助。

We really, really need your help.

我們真的非常需要您的幫助。

Okay, let's go back to this revolution.

好了，讓我們回到這場革命上來。

What is happening?

發生了什麼事？

What's happening is the personal computer is a new medium of communication, one of the media.

現在的情況是，個人電腦是一種新的通信媒介，是媒體之一。

So what's a media?

什麼是媒體？

It's a technology of communication.

這是一種通信技術。

A book is a medium, telephone, radio, television.

書是一種媒介，電話、廣播、電視也是如此。

These are mediums of communication.

這些都是傳播媒介。

And each medium has pitfalls to it, has shortcomings, has boundaries which you can't cross, but it also generally has some new unique opportunities.

每種媒介都有陷阱，都有缺點，都有你不能跨越的界限，但一般也都有一些新的獨特機會。

The neat thing is that each medium shapes not only the communication that goes through it, but it shapes the process of communication.

巧妙之處在於，每種媒介不僅塑造了通過它進行的交流，而且還塑造了交流的過程。

Perfect example.

完美的例子

If you compare the telephone to what we're seeing now in electronic mail, where we link a bunch of computers together and we can send messages to an electronic mailbox, which people can then receive at their leisure, we see that, indeed, in one sense we're sending voice through these wires and in another sense we're sending ones and zeros through these wires.

如果將電話與我們現在看到的電子郵件進行比較，我們就會發現，在某種意義上，我們是在通過這些電線發送語音，而在另一種意義上，我們是在通過這些電線發送 1 和 0。

So the content that's traveling through the medium is certainly different.

是以，通過媒介傳播的內容肯定是不同的。

But the most interesting thing that's different is the process of communication.

但最有趣的不同之處在於交流過程。

When I talk on a telephone with anyone, we both have to be on the phone at the same time.

當我與任何人通電話時，我們必須同時在電話上。

When I'm working or when I want to send something to somebody with a computer terminal, I want to do a drawing and zip it over and put it in their mailbox, they don't need to be there.

當我工作時，或者當我想用電腦終端給別人寄東西時，我想畫一張圖，然後把它拉鍊拉過來，放到他們的郵箱裡，他們不需要在那裡。

They can retrieve it at 12 a.m. in the morning.

他們可以在早上 12 點取回。

They can retrieve it three days later.

他們可以在三天後取回。

They can be in New York and retrieve it.

他們可以在紐約取回它。

One of these days when we have portable computers with radio links, they can be walking around Aspen and retrieve it.

總有一天，當我們有了帶有無線電鏈路的便攜式電腦時，他們就可以在阿斯彭四處走動並檢索它。

And so the process of communication itself changes as the mediums evolve.

是以，隨著傳播媒介的發展，傳播過程本身也會發生變化。

So what I'm claiming is that computers are a medium and that personal computers are a new and different medium from large computers.

是以，我的觀點是，計算機是一種媒介，而個人計算機是一種全新的、不同於大型計算機的媒介。

What happens when a new medium enters the scene is that we tend to fall back into old media habits.

當一種新媒體出現時，我們往往會重拾舊的媒體習慣。

And let's look at a few transitions from one medium to another.

讓我們看看從一種媒介到另一種媒介的一些過渡。

Radio to television, television to this incredible new interactive medium of the video disc.

從廣播到電視，從電視到視頻光盤這種令人難以置信的新型互動媒體。

If you go back and you look at the first television shows, they're basically radio shows with a television camera pointed at them.

如果你回頭看看最早的電視節目，它們基本上都是用電視攝影機對準廣播節目。

And it took us the better part of the 50s to really understand how television was going to come into its own as its own medium.

我們花了 50 年代的大部分時間，才真正理解電視將如何作為自己的媒體出現。

And I really think the first time that a lot of people were shook into realizing that television had come of age was the JFK funeral.

我真的認為，肯尼迪葬禮讓很多人第一次意識到電視時代已經到來。

The nation, a lot of the world, experienced the JFK funeral in their living room at a level of intensity that wouldn't have been possible with radio.

全國乃至全世界的許多人都在自己的客廳裡經歷了肯尼迪的葬禮，其激烈程度是廣播所無法比擬的。

I think another more upbeat example was the Apollo landing.

我想另一個更樂觀的例子是阿波羅登陸。

That experience was not possible with the previous medium.

這種體驗是以前的媒介無法實現的。

And yet it took us the better part of 20 years for that one to really evolve.

然而，我們花了 20 多年的時間，才使這一概念得到真正的發展。

Let's look at the next transition.

讓我們看看下一個過渡。

We have this optical video disc which can store 55,000 images on a side or an hour of video randomly accessible.

我們有一種光學視頻光盤，每面可存儲 55 000 張影像，或隨機訪問一個小時的視頻。

What are we using it for?

我們用它來做什麼？

Movies.

電影

We're dropping back into the old media habits.

我們又回到了舊的媒體習慣中。

And there's a few experiments, though, that are starting to happen and you start to believe that five years, ten years from now, that's going to come into its own.

不過，也有一些實驗正在開始進行，你開始相信，五年、十年後，這將會成為一種趨勢。

A neat experiment happened right here in Aspen.

就在阿斯彭，發生了一個有趣的實驗。

MIT came out to Aspen about four or five years, I think about four years ago.

麻省理工學院來到阿斯彭大約有四五年了，我想大約是四年前。

And they had this truck with this camera on it and they went down every single street, photographed every single intersection in every single street in Aspen.