Name: 彭博 ETF IQ 11/27/2024 (Bloomberg ETF IQ 11/27/2024)
Uploaded: 2024-11-28T02:51:53.000Z
Duration: 22 min 59 s

And Scarlett Fu, it's a special second ETFIQ this week.

傅思嘉，本週特別推出第二期ETFIQ。

Let's get to the biggest stories right now in the more than $14 trillion global ETF industry.

讓我們來看看目前全球超過 14 萬億美元的 ETF 行業中最熱門的新聞。

We start with fresh inflation data out this morning, showing that the Fed might be cautious with rate cuts as we head into 2025.

今天上午公佈的最新通脹數據顯示，進入 2025 年後，美聯儲可能會對降息持謹慎態度。

And in just moments, we speak to world-renowned economist Nouriel Roubini and Atlas Capital CEO Reza Bundy on their new treasury alternative ETF, given the risks they see in the upcoming Trump administration.

稍後，我們將採訪世界著名經濟學家努裡埃爾-魯比尼（Nouriel Roubini）和阿特拉斯資本公司（Atlas Capital）首席執行官雷扎-邦迪（Reza Bundy），請他們談談他們新推出的國債替代 ETF，因為他們認為即將到來的特朗普政府存在風險。

And as President-elect Donald Trump announces the threat of tariffs on his first day in office, we learn how Trump trades in the markets are impacting the flows.

當選總統唐納德-特朗普在上任第一天就宣佈了關稅威脅，我們將瞭解特朗普在市場上的交易是如何影響資金流動的。

And as always, Eric Balchunis from Bloomberg Intelligence, he's here with us now, but we're doing something different.

和往常一樣，來自彭博情報的埃裡克-巴爾丘尼斯（Eric Balchunis）現在和我們在一起，但我們正在做一些不同的事情。

We are drilling down into USAF, which is the Atlas America Fund.

我們正在深入研究美國空軍，也就是阿特拉斯美國基金。

The best way to describe this would be like an asset allocation ETF.

最好的描述方式就是資產配置 ETF。

It invests in other ETFs and other asset classes.

它投資於其他 ETF 和其他資產類別。

It's sort of like a real asset portfolio that an institution would use designed to fight inflation or hedge inflation and make you through several kind of economic cycles.

它有點像一個機構用來對抗通脹或對沖通脹的實物資產組合，能讓你在幾個經濟週期中渡過難關。

可以說是一個持久的投資組合。

It's a newborn fund, made a lot, a big splash because of Roubini being attached to it.

這是一個新生的基金，因為魯比尼的加入而大放異彩。

One of many big names that have come into the ETF industry lately.

它是最近進入 ETF 行業的眾多大公司之一。

讓我們來看看這裡的持股情況。

So if you look, you're going to see a bunch of ETFs.

是以，如果你看一下，你會看到一堆 ETF。

Whoever picked these ETFs is a good ETF shopper because IUAM is better than IAU because it's a cheaper gold.

挑選這些 ETF 的人都是優秀的 ETF 選購者，因為 IUAM 比 IAU 更好，因為它的黃金更便宜。

And some of these Treasury ETFs, again, very specific.

其中一些國債 ETF 又是非常特殊的。

This is a single Treasury ETF in U2, SHI, PDBA is a commodity ETF that has no K1, which is annoying tax form.

這是 U2、SHI、PDBA 中的單一國債 ETF，是一種商品 ETF，沒有 K1，這是令人討厭的稅表。

So somebody really kind of sifted through the ETFs and I think picked probably the best ones for this portfolio.

是以，有人真的對 ETF 進行了篩選，我認為選出了可能最適合這個投資組合的 ETF。

But then for the REITs, which is a income real estate, they pick individual stocks, which we'll go over in a minute.

但對於房地產投資信託基金，也就是收益型房地產，他們會挑選個股，我們稍後會詳細介紹。

So let's look at the actual portfolio of the portfolio breakdown of the ETF.

讓我們來看看 ETF 的實際投資組合明細。

Just to give you an idea of what you're buying when you if you get this ETF, 50 percent of it is Treasuries.

如果你買了這隻 ETF，50% 是國債。

OK, then you're going to get gold here, 17 percent REITs, tips, agricultural commodities and alternative strategies.

好的，那麼你將在這裡獲得黃金、17% 的房地產投資信託、提示、農產品和另類策略。

So again, a lot like an institutional portfolio, Katie and Scarlett.

所以，凱蒂和斯嘉麗也很像機構投資組合。

And with Roubini's name attached, I'm sure this thing will get some looks.

有了魯比尼的名字，我相信這件事一定會引起一些關注。

Let's keep the conversation going now with Nouriel Roubini.

現在讓我們與努裡埃爾-魯比尼繼續對話。

He is the CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, and we're also joined by Atlas Capital Team CEO Reza Bundy, who, of course, just launched this fund that we're talking about.

他是魯比尼宏觀聯合公司（Roubini Macro Associates）的首席執行官，阿特拉斯資本團隊（Atlas Capital Team）的首席執行官雷扎-邦迪（Reza Bundy）也加入了我們的行列，當然，他剛剛推出了我們正在討論的這隻基金。

Atlas, of course, is a fintech company that Roubini co-founded.

當然，Atlas 是魯比尼聯合創辦的一家金融科技公司。

It's great to have the both of you with us.

很高興你們倆能和我們在一起。

And Nouriel, I want to start with you since you are a first time ETF issuer and something we like to ask the debuts in the ETF industry is why now?

努裡埃爾，我想從你開始，因為你是第一次發行ETF，而我們喜歡問ETF行業的首次發行者的問題是，為什麼是現在？

What brought you to this rapport now when it comes to why implement your strategy here?

是什麼讓你們現在有了這種默契，為什麼要在這裡實施你們的戰略？

Well, why now is because we live in a world where after COVID, the risk of stagflationary shocks that lead to higher inflation and lower economic growth are becoming more severe.

為什麼是現在，因為在我們生活的這個世界裡，在 COVID 之後，導致通脹上升和經濟增長下降的滯脹衝擊風險變得更加嚴重。

And these types of stagflationary problems are going to be more serious during a Trump administration.

而在特朗普執政期間，這類滯脹問題將更加嚴重。

If you think about the impact of tariff protectionism and trade wars, the impact of restriction to migration and the supply of labor, deficits and tax cuts that are unfunded, attempt to weaken the dollar, attempt to interfere with the Fed, getting out of the Paris Accord and worsening global climate change, all these factors economic theory would suggest that would lead to higher inflation, lower economic growth.

如果你考慮到關稅保護主義和貿易戰的影響、限制移民和勞動力供應的影響、赤字和沒有資金支持的減稅政策、試圖削弱美元、試圖干預美聯儲、退出《巴黎協定》和全球氣候變化惡化，所有這些因素經濟理論都會認為會導致通脹上升、經濟增長下降。

And therefore, traditional safe asset that hedge against those risks like long duration fixed income don't do well in that type of environment.

是以，傳統的安全資產，如長期固定收益，在這種環境下並不能很好地對沖這些風險。

So you need a different type of asset allocation to hedge yourself against the idea of economic risk, inflation, the basement of the fiat currency, the dollarization, geopolitical environmental risks.

是以，你需要一種不同類型的資產配置來對沖經濟風險、通貨膨脹、法定貨幣基礎、美元化、地緣政治環境風險。

Clearly, it's tied to your economic outlook.

顯然，這與你的經濟前景息息相關。

And we can dig into that a little bit later on.

But Reza, I want to bring you into the conversation as well.

不過，禮薩，我想把你也帶進談話中來。

Why is that the best format for really articulating this view?

為什麼說這是真正闡述這一觀點的最佳形式？

Well, the origin of the Atlas program was out of the national security landscape back in 2017, when we were evaluating some of the risks that were kind of upcoming, in our view, geopolitical risks, climate risks, asymmetric risks, sociopolitical risks.

那麼，Atlas計劃的起源是在2017年，當時我們正在評估一些在我們看來即將到來的風險，如地緣政治風險、氣候風險、非對稱風險、社會政治風險等。

And we felt that it was necessary to build a more resilient U.S.

我們認為，有必要建立一個更具復原力的美國。

And the Trump administration actually came up with an idea of a gold-backed Treasury instrument, which we took upon ourselves to commercialize, because the Treasury Department couldn't do so themselves.

實際上，特朗普政府提出了一個以黃金為支持的國債工具的想法，我們主動將其商業化，因為財政部自己做不到。

It would cannibalize their existing market, and they didn't have enough gold to really create much of an issuance.

這將蠶食他們現有的市場，而且他們也沒有足夠的黃金來進行真正的發行。

So the origin of this story came about by trying to create that Treasury alternative that could withstand the risks that we were forecasting.

是以，這個故事的起源就是試圖創造一種能夠抵禦我們所預測的風險的國庫替代品。

And so therefore, we thought the ETF wrapper would be the best solution, especially because we dynamically allocate these assets as we see market signals coming in, whether growth or inflation risks.

是以，我們認為 ETF 包裝是最好的解決方案，特別是因為我們在看到市場信號（無論是增長還是通脹風險）時，會動態分配這些資產。

So the ETF was just an ideal, liquid, and very well-regulated and well-structured instrument.

是以，ETF 是一種理想的、流動性好、管理規範、結構合理的工具。

All right, Nouriel, this is a question for you.

好吧，努裡埃爾，這是問你的問題。

In 2022, inflation went up, Fed raised rates, and that caused Treasuries to go down, right?

2022 年，通脹上升，美聯儲加息，導致國債下跌，對嗎？

A lot of bonds went down with stocks that year.

那一年，很多債券都隨股票下跌。

You have 50% Treasuries in here, and I did notice a triple-leveraged bear ETF in there.

這裡有 50%的國債，我還注意到這裡有一個三倍槓桿的低迷的市場 ETF。

Can you talk about managing that kind of a situation, where inflation causes rates to go up, bonds to go down?

通脹導致利率上升，債券下跌，您能談談如何應對這種情況嗎？

How do you protect this Treasury exposure?

The point is that we are going away in our portfolio from long-duration fixed income and Treasuries, because as you pointed out, when there are economic shocks that are inflationary, long bond yields go higher, the price falls, but also equity prices like 2022 go down.

問題的關鍵在於，我們的投資組合將遠離長期固定收益和國債，因為正如你所指出的，當經濟受到通脹衝擊時，長期債券收益率會走高，價格會下跌，但 2022 年等股票價格也會下跌。

So the traditional safe asset is long-duration Treasuries doesn't work in a situation which inflation is rising.

是以，傳統的安全資產--長期國債--在通脹上升的情況下行不通了。

That's why in our portfolio of Treasury, we stay completely away from long-term Treasuries, and all our allocation of Treasury is short-term Treasuries and tips that actually do well in times where inflation is higher, and you have those types of economic shocks.

這就是為什麼在我們的國債投資組合中，我們完全遠離長期國債，我們所有的國債配置都是短期國債，在通脹率較高、經濟受到衝擊的時候，短期國債會有不錯的表現。

So the point is the traditional safe asset that is negatively correlated with equities in a 60-40 allocation doesn't do well in a world of high inflation.

是以，問題的關鍵在於，在高通脹的世界裡，與股票負相關的傳統安全資產在 60-40 的分配中並不理想。

就像我們在 2022-23 年甚至今年看到的那樣。

An alternative combines things that do well when inflation is higher, short-term Treasury tips, commodities, and environmentally sustainable rates.

另一種選擇是將通脹率較高時表現良好的事物、短期國庫券、商品和環境可持續利率結合起來。

Nouriel, that's really interesting, and just to draw a bow on that point, it sounds like your position basically for a curve steepener, that you have all this exposure to the short end of the Treasury curve, but position for the long-end yields to go higher.

努裡埃爾，這真的很有趣，就這一點來說，聽起來你的立場基本上是支持曲線陡峭化，你對國債曲線的短端有這麼大的風險敞口，但對長端收益率走高的立場是支持的。

Yeah, in our view of the world, over time, all the inflationary shock that I described before implied that long bond yields are going to be higher, both in nominal terms and in real terms, as we're going to have tariff, migration restriction, independence of the Fed challenge, and budget deficits are runaway.

是的，在我們看來，隨著時間的推移，我之前描述的所有通脹衝擊都意味著長期債券收益率會更高，無論是名義上還是實際上，因為我們將面臨關稅、移民限制、美聯儲獨立性挑戰以及預算赤字失控等問題。

Therefore, the traditional safe asset doesn't do well.

是以，傳統的安全資產表現不佳。

In 2022, bond yields went from 1% to 3.5%, and 10-year Treasury lost more than S&P.

2022 年，債券收益率從 1%升至 3.5%，10 年期國債的損失超過了標準普爾。

S&P fell 15%, while 10-year Treasury lost price by 20%.

標準普爾指數下跌 15%，10 年期國債價格下跌 20%。

In a world in which average inflation might be 5% rather than 2%, bond yields may be closer to 7%, 8% rather than the current 4+.

在一個平均通脹率可能是 5%而不是 2%的世界裡，債券收益率可能接近 7%、8%，而不是目前的 4+。

And therefore, for $20 trillion of Treasuries, that the traditional safe asset, we subject a massive price risk, 30%, 40% losses.

是以，對於 20 萬億美元的國債這種傳統的安全資產來說，我們面臨著巨大的價格風險，30%、40% 的損失。

Not high inflation, not hyperinflation, but even a rise in inflation from 2% to 5%, 6% has a massive damaging effect for the traditional long-duration fixed income asset.

不是高通脹，也不是惡性通脹，但即使通脹率從 2%上升到 5%、6%，也會對傳統的長期固定收益資產產生巨大的破壞性影響。

So this will be an actively managed fund, Nouriel.

所以，這將是一個主動管理型基金，努裡埃爾。

How often do you anticipate making changes to their portfolio?

您預計多久會對他們的投資組合進行調整？

When you think about the stock market, it seems like Trump wants stocks up.

想想股票市場，特朗普似乎希望股票上漲。

He brags about the stock market a lot, and if they go down, you think he would just bend over backwards to make stocks go back up.

他經常吹噓股市，如果股市下跌，你會認為他會彎腰讓股票回升。

In your opinion, do you see that not happening this second term, or do you think that this ETF is needed just in case the stock market, you know, kind of goes its own direction?

在你看來，你認為這不會在第二任期內發生，還是你認為需要這隻ETF以防萬一，你知道，股市會朝著自己的方向發展？

Well, there's a tremendous amount of risks offshore that we need to look at.

我們需要關注海上的巨大風險。

This Lebanon-Israeli, for example, truce agreement may just create more risk against a war against the Iranians and the Israelis, which obviously has effects on the oil supply that comes out of the Persian Gulf.

例如，黎巴嫩與以色列達成的停戰協議可能會給伊朗和以色列帶來更多戰爭風險，這顯然會影響波斯灣的石油供應。