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  • Welcome to Bloomberg ETFIQ.

    歡迎訪問彭博 ETFIQ。

  • I'm Scarlett Fu.

    我是傅思嘉。

  • And I'm Katie Greifeld.

    我是凱蒂-格萊菲爾德

  • And Scarlett Fu, it's a special second ETFIQ this week.

    傅思嘉,本週特別推出第二期ETFIQ。

  • I know.

    我知道

  • Is it Monday?

    是星期一嗎?

  • Is it Wednesday?

    今天是星期三嗎?

  • No one knows.

    沒有人知道。

  • Let's get to the biggest stories right now in the more than $14 trillion global ETF industry.

    讓我們來看看目前全球超過 14 萬億美元的 ETF 行業中最熱門的新聞。

  • We start with fresh inflation data out this morning, showing that the Fed might be cautious with rate cuts as we head into 2025.

    今天上午公佈的最新通脹數據顯示,進入 2025 年後,美聯儲可能會對降息持謹慎態度。

  • And in just moments, we speak to world-renowned economist Nouriel Roubini and Atlas Capital CEO Reza Bundy on their new treasury alternative ETF, given the risks they see in the upcoming Trump administration.

    稍後,我們將採訪世界著名經濟學家努裡埃爾-魯比尼(Nouriel Roubini)和阿特拉斯資本公司(Atlas Capital)首席執行官雷扎-邦迪(Reza Bundy),請他們談談他們新推出的國債替代 ETF,因為他們認為即將到來的特朗普政府存在風險。

  • And as President-elect Donald Trump announces the threat of tariffs on his first day in office, we learn how Trump trades in the markets are impacting the flows.

    當選總統唐納德-特朗普在上任第一天就宣佈了關稅威脅,我們將瞭解特朗普在市場上的交易是如何影響資金流動的。

  • And as always, Eric Balchunis from Bloomberg Intelligence, he's here with us now, but we're doing something different.

    和往常一樣,來自彭博情報的埃裡克-巴爾丘尼斯(Eric Balchunis)現在和我們在一起,但我們正在做一些不同的事情。

  • We're starting with the drill down.

    我們從鑽孔開始。

  • Eric, what do we got?

    埃裡克,有什麼發現?

  • We are.

    我們是

  • I'm going to have to get used to this.

    我得習慣這一點。

  • A little different today.

    今天有點不同。

  • So Katie, Scarlett, thank you so much.

    凱蒂、斯嘉麗,謝謝你們。

  • We are drilling down into USAF, which is the Atlas America Fund.

    我們正在深入研究美國空軍,也就是阿特拉斯美國基金。

  • The best way to describe this would be like an asset allocation ETF.

    最好的描述方式就是資產配置 ETF。

  • It invests in other ETFs and other asset classes.

    它投資於其他 ETF 和其他資產類別。

  • It's sort of like a real asset portfolio that an institution would use designed to fight inflation or hedge inflation and make you through several kind of economic cycles.

    它有點像一個機構用來對抗通脹或對沖通脹的實物資產組合,能讓你在幾個經濟週期中渡過難關。

  • A durable portfolio, if you will.

    可以說是一個持久的投資組合。

  • It just came out.

    它剛剛出來。

  • It's a newborn fund, made a lot, a big splash because of Roubini being attached to it.

    這是一個新生的基金,因為魯比尼的加入而大放異彩。

  • One of many big names that have come into the ETF industry lately.

    它是最近進入 ETF 行業的眾多大公司之一。

  • It's 75 basis points is the fee.

    費用是 75 個基點。

  • And let's look at the holdings here.

    讓我們來看看這裡的持股情況。

  • So if you look, you're going to see a bunch of ETFs.

    是以,如果你看一下,你會看到一堆 ETF。

  • And I got to give credit.

    我得表揚他們。

  • Whoever picked these ETFs is a good ETF shopper because IUAM is better than IAU because it's a cheaper gold.

    挑選這些 ETF 的人都是優秀的 ETF 選購者,因為 IUAM 比 IAU 更好,因為它的黃金更便宜。

  • And some of these Treasury ETFs, again, very specific.

    其中一些國債 ETF 又是非常特殊的。

  • This is a single Treasury ETF in U2, SHI, PDBA is a commodity ETF that has no K1, which is annoying tax form.

    這是 U2、SHI、PDBA 中的單一國債 ETF,是一種商品 ETF,沒有 K1,這是令人討厭的稅表。

  • So somebody really kind of sifted through the ETFs and I think picked probably the best ones for this portfolio.

    是以,有人真的對 ETF 進行了篩選,我認為選出了可能最適合這個投資組合的 ETF。

  • But then for the REITs, which is a income real estate, they pick individual stocks, which we'll go over in a minute.

    但對於房地產投資信託基金,也就是收益型房地產,他們會挑選個股,我們稍後會詳細介紹。

  • So let's look at the actual portfolio of the portfolio breakdown of the ETF.

    讓我們來看看 ETF 的實際投資組合明細。

  • Just to give you an idea of what you're buying when you if you get this ETF, 50 percent of it is Treasuries.

    如果你買了這隻 ETF,50% 是國債。

  • OK, then you're going to get gold here, 17 percent REITs, tips, agricultural commodities and alternative strategies.

    好的,那麼你將在這裡獲得黃金、17% 的房地產投資信託、提示、農產品和另類策略。

  • So again, a lot like an institutional portfolio, Katie and Scarlett.

    所以,凱蒂和斯嘉麗也很像機構投資組合。

  • And with Roubini's name attached, I'm sure this thing will get some looks.

    有了魯比尼的名字,我相信這件事一定會引起一些關注。

  • All right, Eric.

    好吧,埃裡克。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Let's keep the conversation going now with Nouriel Roubini.

    現在讓我們與努裡埃爾-魯比尼繼續對話。

  • He is the CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, and we're also joined by Atlas Capital Team CEO Reza Bundy, who, of course, just launched this fund that we're talking about.

    他是魯比尼宏觀聯合公司(Roubini Macro Associates)的首席執行官,阿特拉斯資本團隊(Atlas Capital Team)的首席執行官雷扎-邦迪(Reza Bundy)也加入了我們的行列,當然,他剛剛推出了我們正在討論的這隻基金。

  • Atlas, of course, is a fintech company that Roubini co-founded.

    當然,Atlas 是魯比尼聯合創辦的一家金融科技公司。

  • It's great to have the both of you with us.

    很高興你們倆能和我們在一起。

  • And Nouriel, I want to start with you since you are a first time ETF issuer and something we like to ask the debuts in the ETF industry is why now?

    努裡埃爾,我想從你開始,因為你是第一次發行ETF,而我們喜歡問ETF行業的首次發行者的問題是,為什麼是現在?

  • What brought you to this rapport now when it comes to why implement your strategy here?

    是什麼讓你們現在有了這種默契,為什麼要在這裡實施你們的戰略?

  • Well, why now is because we live in a world where after COVID, the risk of stagflationary shocks that lead to higher inflation and lower economic growth are becoming more severe.

    為什麼是現在,因為在我們生活的這個世界裡,在 COVID 之後,導致通脹上升和經濟增長下降的滯脹衝擊風險變得更加嚴重。

  • And these types of stagflationary problems are going to be more serious during a Trump administration.

    而在特朗普執政期間,這類滯脹問題將更加嚴重。

  • If you think about the impact of tariff protectionism and trade wars, the impact of restriction to migration and the supply of labor, deficits and tax cuts that are unfunded, attempt to weaken the dollar, attempt to interfere with the Fed, getting out of the Paris Accord and worsening global climate change, all these factors economic theory would suggest that would lead to higher inflation, lower economic growth.

    如果你考慮到關稅保護主義和貿易戰的影響、限制移民和勞動力供應的影響、赤字和沒有資金支持的減稅政策、試圖削弱美元、試圖干預美聯儲、退出《巴黎協定》和全球氣候變化惡化,所有這些因素經濟理論都會認為會導致通脹上升、經濟增長下降。

  • And therefore, traditional safe asset that hedge against those risks like long duration fixed income don't do well in that type of environment.

    是以,傳統的安全資產,如長期固定收益,在這種環境下並不能很好地對沖這些風險。

  • So you need a different type of asset allocation to hedge yourself against the idea of economic risk, inflation, the basement of the fiat currency, the dollarization, geopolitical environmental risks.

    是以,你需要一種不同類型的資產配置來對沖經濟風險、通貨膨脹、法定貨幣基礎、美元化、地緣政治環境風險。

  • Thank you for answering that.

    謝謝你的回答。

  • Clearly, it's tied to your economic outlook.

    顯然,這與你的經濟前景息息相關。

  • And we can dig into that a little bit later on.

    我們可以稍後再深入探討。

  • But Reza, I want to bring you into the conversation as well.

    不過,禮薩,我想把你也帶進談話中來。

  • What is why the ETF wrapper?

    為什麼要使用 ETF 包裝?

  • Why is that the best format for really articulating this view?

    為什麼說這是真正闡述這一觀點的最佳形式?

  • Well, the origin of the Atlas program was out of the national security landscape back in 2017, when we were evaluating some of the risks that were kind of upcoming, in our view, geopolitical risks, climate risks, asymmetric risks, sociopolitical risks.

    那麼,Atlas計劃的起源是在2017年,當時我們正在評估一些在我們看來即將到來的風險,如地緣政治風險、氣候風險、非對稱風險、社會政治風險等。

  • And we felt that it was necessary to build a more resilient U.S.

    我們認為,有必要建立一個更具復原力的美國。

  • Treasury alternative.

    財政部替代方案。

  • And the Trump administration actually came up with an idea of a gold-backed Treasury instrument, which we took upon ourselves to commercialize, because the Treasury Department couldn't do so themselves.

    實際上,特朗普政府提出了一個以黃金為支持的國債工具的想法,我們主動將其商業化,因為財政部自己做不到。

  • It would cannibalize their existing market, and they didn't have enough gold to really create much of an issuance.

    這將蠶食他們現有的市場,而且他們也沒有足夠的黃金來進行真正的發行。

  • So the origin of this story came about by trying to create that Treasury alternative that could withstand the risks that we were forecasting.

    是以,這個故事的起源就是試圖創造一種能夠抵禦我們所預測的風險的國庫替代品。

  • And so therefore, we thought the ETF wrapper would be the best solution, especially because we dynamically allocate these assets as we see market signals coming in, whether growth or inflation risks.

    是以,我們認為 ETF 包裝是最好的解決方案,特別是因為我們在看到市場信號(無論是增長還是通脹風險)時,會動態分配這些資產。

  • So the ETF was just an ideal, liquid, and very well-regulated and well-structured instrument.

    是以,ETF 是一種理想的、流動性好、管理規範、結構合理的工具。

  • All right, Nouriel, this is a question for you.

    好吧,努裡埃爾,這是問你的問題。

  • We talk about inflation, right?

    我們談論通貨膨脹,對嗎?

  • In 2022, inflation went up, Fed raised rates, and that caused Treasuries to go down, right?

    2022 年,通脹上升,美聯儲加息,導致國債下跌,對嗎?

  • A lot of bonds went down with stocks that year.

    那一年,很多債券都隨股票下跌。

  • The 60 and the 40 both fell.

    60 和 40 均下跌。

  • You have 50% Treasuries in here, and I did notice a triple-leveraged bear ETF in there.

    這裡有 50%的國債,我還注意到這裡有一個三倍槓桿的低迷的市場 ETF。

  • Can you talk about managing that kind of a situation, where inflation causes rates to go up, bonds to go down?

    通脹導致利率上升,債券下跌,您能談談如何應對這種情況嗎?

  • How do you protect this Treasury exposure?

    如何保護國庫風險?

  • The point is that we are going away in our portfolio from long-duration fixed income and Treasuries, because as you pointed out, when there are economic shocks that are inflationary, long bond yields go higher, the price falls, but also equity prices like 2022 go down.

    問題的關鍵在於,我們的投資組合將遠離長期固定收益和國債,因為正如你所指出的,當經濟受到通脹衝擊時,長期債券收益率會走高,價格會下跌,但 2022 年等股票價格也會下跌。

  • So the traditional safe asset is long-duration Treasuries doesn't work in a situation which inflation is rising.

    是以,傳統的安全資產--長期國債--在通脹上升的情況下行不通了。

  • That's why in our portfolio of Treasury, we stay completely away from long-term Treasuries, and all our allocation of Treasury is short-term Treasuries and tips that actually do well in times where inflation is higher, and you have those types of economic shocks.

    這就是為什麼在我們的國債投資組合中,我們完全遠離長期國債,我們所有的國債配置都是短期國債,在通脹率較高、經濟受到衝擊的時候,短期國債會有不錯的表現。

  • So the point is the traditional safe asset that is negatively correlated with equities in a 60-40 allocation doesn't do well in a world of high inflation.

    是以,問題的關鍵在於,在高通脹的世界裡,與股票負相關的傳統安全資產在 60-40 的分配中並不理想。

  • Like we saw in 2022-23, even this year.

    就像我們在 2022-23 年甚至今年看到的那樣。

  • Therefore, you need an alternative.

    是以,你需要一個替代方案。

  • An alternative combines things that do well when inflation is higher, short-term Treasury tips, commodities, and environmentally sustainable rates.

    另一種選擇是將通脹率較高時表現良好的事物、短期國庫券、商品和環境可持續利率結合起來。

  • Nouriel, that's really interesting, and just to draw a bow on that point, it sounds like your position basically for a curve steepener, that you have all this exposure to the short end of the Treasury curve, but position for the long-end yields to go higher.

    努裡埃爾,這真的很有趣,就這一點來說,聽起來你的立場基本上是支持曲線陡峭化,你對國債曲線的短端有這麼大的風險敞口,但對長端收益率走高的立場是支持的。

  • Yeah, in our view of the world, over time, all the inflationary shock that I described before implied that long bond yields are going to be higher, both in nominal terms and in real terms, as we're going to have tariff, migration restriction, independence of the Fed challenge, and budget deficits are runaway.

    是的,在我們看來,隨著時間的推移,我之前描述的所有通脹衝擊都意味著長期債券收益率會更高,無論是名義上還是實際上,因為我們將面臨關稅、移民限制、美聯儲獨立性挑戰以及預算赤字失控等問題。

  • Therefore, the traditional safe asset doesn't do well.

    是以,傳統的安全資產表現不佳。

  • In 2022, bond yields went from 1% to 3.5%, and 10-year Treasury lost more than S&P.

    2022 年,債券收益率從 1%升至 3.5%,10 年期國債的損失超過了標準普爾。

  • S&P fell 15%, while 10-year Treasury lost price by 20%.

    標準普爾指數下跌 15%,10 年期國債價格下跌 20%。

  • In a world in which average inflation might be 5% rather than 2%, bond yields may be closer to 7%, 8% rather than the current 4+.

    在一個平均通脹率可能是 5%而不是 2%的世界裡,債券收益率可能接近 7%、8%,而不是目前的 4+。

  • And therefore, for $20 trillion of Treasuries, that the traditional safe asset, we subject a massive price risk, 30%, 40% losses.

    是以,對於 20 萬億美元的國債這種傳統的安全資產來說,我們面臨著巨大的價格風險,30%、40% 的損失。

  • That's the kind of world we're thinking.

    這就是我們正在思考的世界。

  • Not high inflation, not hyperinflation, but even a rise in inflation from 2% to 5%, 6% has a massive damaging effect for the traditional long-duration fixed income asset.

    不是高通脹,也不是惡性通脹,但即使通脹率從 2%上升到 5%、6%,也會對傳統的長期固定收益資產產生巨大的破壞性影響。

  • So this will be an actively managed fund, Nouriel.

    所以,這將是一個主動管理型基金,努裡埃爾。

  • How often do you anticipate making changes to their portfolio?

    您預計多久會對他們的投資組合進行調整?

  • This is a question for Reza.

    這個問題要問禮薩。

  • When you think about the stock market, it seems like Trump wants stocks up.

    想想股票市場,特朗普似乎希望股票上漲。

  • He brags about the stock market a lot, and if they go down, you think he would just bend over backwards to make stocks go back up.

    他經常吹噓股市,如果股市下跌,你會認為他會彎腰讓股票回升。

  • In your opinion, do you see that not happening this second term, or do you think that this ETF is needed just in case the stock market, you know, kind of goes its own direction?

    在你看來,你認為這不會在第二任期內發生,還是你認為需要這隻ETF以防萬一,你知道,股市會朝著自己的方向發展?

  • Well, there's a tremendous amount of risks offshore that we need to look at.

    我們需要關注海上的巨大風險。

  • This Lebanon-Israeli, for example, truce agreement may just create more risk against a war against the Iranians and the Israelis, which obviously has effects on the oil supply that comes out of the Persian Gulf.

    例如,黎巴嫩與以色列達成的停戰協議可能會給伊朗和以色列帶來更多戰爭風險,這顯然會影響波斯灣的石油供應。

  • These kind of risks do significantly impact the stock market, especially as that oil goes to China, and there's obviously some other risks associated with the South China Sea.

    這些風險確實會對股市產生重大影響,尤其是在石油流向中國的情況下。

  • And so we don't see these events being positive for the stock market.

    是以,我們不認為這些事件會對股市產生積極影響。

  • And we see this instrument, and this instrument is designed to do so, doing well at times such as this.

    我們看到,在這樣的時刻,這個工具--這個工具的設計初衷--表現出色。

  • So that's why we launched it at this time frame.

    是以,我們才在這個時間段推出了它。

  • And Reza, I have another question for you.

    禮薩,我還有一個問題要問你。

  • I thought an interesting detail was that this ETF was launched through Goldman Sachs ETF Accelerator program.

    我認為一個有趣的細節是,這隻 ETF 是通過高盛 ETF 加速器計劃推出的。

  • It's not quite a white label, but for those listening who maybe aren't familiar with the concept, basically Goldman Sachs helped you do the back office stuff, as I believe it, or understand it, to get this ETF to the masses.

    這並不完全是一個白色標籤,但對於那些可能不熟悉這個概念的聽眾來說,基本上是高盛幫你做後臺工作,我相信是這樣,或者說我理解是這樣,把這個 ETF 推向大眾。

  • Can you talk us through why you went with that setup, for example, rather than hiring out an ETF team?

    例如,您能否向我們解釋一下您為什麼選擇這種設置,而不是僱用一個 ETF 團隊?

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • So in 2018, when we came off the back end of working through the alternative Treasury instrument idea through the Trump administration and the national security think tank we were working through, the Goldman Sachs team took it upon themselves to help us devise this program as a more resilient U.S.

    是以,在 2018 年,當我們通過特朗普政府和國家安全智庫提出替代性財政工具的想法後,高盛團隊主動幫助我們設計了這一計劃,作為美國更具彈性的方案。

  • Treasury instrument.

    國庫工具。

  • They built an index initially, we built an annuity with them, and we just felt their team was really strong.

    他們最初建立了一個指數,我們與他們建立了一個年金,我們只是覺得他們的團隊非常強大。

  • They're really focused on national security, they're focused on resiliency, they've got a very strong relationship with Washington, and they've got a fantastic team at the ETF Accelerator.

    他們專注於國家安全,專注於恢復能力,與華盛頓關係密切,在 ETF 加速器擁有一支出色的團隊。

  • Lisa Mantle, Steve Sachs, these are really, really strong teams that we rely on to execute these trades.

    Lisa Mantle、Steve Sachs,這些都是我們賴以執行這些交易的非常非常強大的團隊。

  • And we think that there's more work to be done underneath the illiquid portion of this ETF at a time and a place when the scale allows it.

    我們認為,在規模允許的時間和地點,ETF 的非流動性部分還有更多工作要做。

  • So the platform is very strong, but also the connectivity to the other parts of Goldman and their natural inclination to be more focused on national security and resiliency and economic security matters made them a natural choice.

    是以,高盛的平臺非常強大,而且與高盛其他部門的聯繫也非常緊密,再加上高盛天生傾向於更加關注國家安全、恢復能力和經濟安全事務,是以高盛自然而然地成為了他們的選擇。

  • We're very proud to be working with them.

    能與他們合作,我們感到非常自豪。

  • And Nouriel, when you think about this ETF, the big market for ETFs is advisors.

    努裡埃爾,當你考慮這隻 ETF 時,ETF 的大市場是顧問。

  • Financial advisors are like 70 percent of ETF users.

    財務顧問佔 ETF 用戶的 70%。

  • What does this replace for a typical 60-40 advisor?

    這能取代典型的 60-40 顧問嗎?

  • Is this going into the bond portion or the equity or maybe some other alternative portion they might have?

    這部分資金是用於債券部分,還是股權部分,或者是他們可能有的其他替代部分?

  • No, it's a substitute for the bond portion, because as I pointed out, the traditional defensive asset is long-term treasury, doesn't work in a world in which inflation is going to be gradually higher, bond is going to be higher, prices are going to be lower for those bonds at a time where there could be correction in equity markets.

    不,它是債券部分的替代品,因為正如我所指出的,傳統的防禦性資產是長期國債,在通脹逐漸走高、債券走高、債券價格走低、股票市場可能出現調整的情況下,長期國債是行不通的。

  • The whole point of 60-40 is based on a negative correlation between bond prices and equity bond growth, equity dwell, bond prices fall, risk of recession, bond prices go higher, the yield goes down, equities do worse.

    60-40 的全部意義都是基於債券價格與股票之間的負相關關係 債券增長,股票上漲,債券價格下跌,衰退風險,債券價格上漲,收益率下降,股票表現更糟。

  • But that works only if inflation is low and stable.

    但這隻有在通貨膨脹率低且穩定的情況下才會奏效。

  • Instead, in a world in which gradual inflation goes higher, you lose on the equity portion of your portfolio and you lose also on the bond portion of your portfolio.

    相反,在通脹逐步走高的情況下,你的投資組合中的股票部分會虧損,你的投資組合中的債券部分也會虧損。

  • So when you lose on the bond portion of your portfolio, you want to have an asset that is actually truly defensive when interest rates are higher, because either there is higher inflation or bigger deficit than that.

    是以,當你的投資組合中債券部分出現虧損時,你希望擁有一種在利率較高時真正具有防禦性的資產,因為要麼通脹率較高,要麼赤字比通脹率更大。

  • So it's an alternative to the bond part of your portfolio, the defensive part of your All right.

    是以,它是你投資組合中債券部分、防禦部分的替代品。

  • Great conversation, you guys.

    你們聊得很開心。

  • Atlas CEO Reza Bundy, really appreciate you taking the time.

    Atlas 首席執行官雷扎-邦迪(Reza Bundy),非常感謝你抽出時間。

  • Noriel, don't go anywhere.

    諾瑞爾,哪兒也別去

  • You're sticking with us.

    你要和我們在一起

  • This is ETFIQ on Bloomberg.

    這是彭博上的 ETFIQ。

  • Welcome back to Bloomberg ETFIQ, I'm Scarlet Fu.

    歡迎回到彭博 ETFIQ,我是 Scarlet Fu。

  • We're back with Noriel Roubini.

    我們又回到了諾里爾-魯比尼的節目。

  • He is chairman and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates.

    他是 Roubini Macro Associates 公司的董事長兼首席執行官。

  • And Noriel, we're talking about this ETF that you have launched, which is a way to kind of guard against some of the economic outlook problems that you foresee, given the new government that we're going to have starting next year.

    諾瑞爾,我們正在討論你推出的這隻ETF,鑑於明年開始我們將迎來新政府,它是一種防範你所預見的一些經濟前景問題的方法。

  • You mentioned stagflation earlier and how you are worried about that scenario.

    您剛才提到了滯脹,以及您對這種情況的擔憂。

  • Based on what you've heard from the president-elect so far, when it comes to cabinet picks, initial tariff threats, can you quantify the risk of stagflation over the next four years?

    根據您目前從當選總統那裡聽到的消息,在談到內閣人選和最初的關稅威脅時,您能否量化未來四年的滯脹風險?

  • Are we talking about 20% odds?

    我們說的是 20% 的機率嗎?

  • Are we talking about 70% odds?

    我們說的是 70% 的機率嗎?

  • Some of the economic policies of Trump may lead to higher economic growth, being pro-business, keeping tax rates low, deregulating the economy.

    特朗普的一些經濟政策可能會帶來更高的經濟增長,比如親商、保持低稅率、放鬆經濟管制等。

  • But unfortunately, many of the other policies are going to have an implication of higher inflation and lower economic growth.

    但不幸的是,許多其他政策都會帶來通脹上升和經濟增長下降的影響。

  • The first thing he has already announced is going to be tariff against Mexico, Canada, and China.

    他已經宣佈的第一件事就是對墨西哥、加拿大和中國徵收關稅。

  • And that's only the beginning.

    而這僅僅是個開始。

  • He has said we might have up to 20% tariff on all our trade partners, up to 60% against China.

    他說,我們可能對所有貿易伙伴徵收高達 20% 的關稅,對中國徵收高達 60% 的關稅。

  • He wants to have massive deportation of people.

    他想大規模驅逐人民。

  • In the last few years, the increase in migration has kept the lead on wage growth, has increased the labor supply, has increased economic growth.

    在過去幾年中,移民人數的增加保持了工資增長的領先地位,增加了勞動力供應,促進了經濟增長。

  • So definitely, mass deportation is stagflationary.

    是以,大規模驅逐肯定會造成滯脹。

  • He wants not only to make all those tax cuts permanent, but he made other promises, no taxes on tips, on overtime, on social security, on income earned abroad, and so on and so on.

    他不僅希望將所有這些減稅政策永久化,還做出了其他承諾,不對小費、加班費、社會保障、海外收入徵稅,等等等等。

  • It's estimated these things may have a deficit by $8 trillion, too much demand, inflationary.

    據估計,這些東西可能會造成 8 萬億美元的赤字,需求過多,通貨膨脹。

  • He might want to weaken the dollar.

    他可能想削弱美元。

  • That's going to be inflationary.

    這將導致通貨膨脹。

  • He may interfere with the independence of the Fed.

    他可能會干涉美聯儲的獨立性。

  • Getting out of the Paris Accords is going to make climate change much worse, increase food prices and things of that sort.

    退出《巴黎協定》會使氣候變化更加嚴重,糧食價格上漲,諸如此類。

  • So if you look at this list of policies and others, all of them have the impact that over time inflation will be higher, growth is going to be lower.

    是以,如果你看看這一系列政策和其他政策,所有這些政策都會產生這樣的影響,即隨著時間的推移,通脹會更高,增長會更低。

  • That's a standard analysis of what's going to be the implication of this policy.

    這是對這項政策的影響的標準分析。

  • So we have to worry about the world in which overall over the next few years, inflation is going to be gradually higher, economic growth could be lower.

    是以,我們不得不擔心,在未來幾年裡,世界的整體通脹率會逐漸升高,經濟增長可能會降低。

  • And therefore, you have to find a hedge against a world in which bond yields on the long side may be much higher than 4% and may go towards 6%, 7%, even 8% in a scenario where inflation goes from 2% through 3%, 4%, 5%.

    是以,你必須找到一個對沖工具,以應對在通脹率從 2%上升到 3%、4%、5% 的情況下,債券的長期收益率可能遠高於 4%,甚至達到 6%、7%、甚至 8%。

  • So that's the kind of concerns I have and the kind of tail risk.

    這就是我的擔憂和尾部風險。

  • Inflation, the basement of fiat currency, potential de-dollarization, debts become unsustainable, climate change, geopolitical risks that fragment the world and lead to less growth and more inflation.

    通貨膨脹、法定貨幣的基礎、潛在的去美元化、債務變得不可持續、氣候變化、地緣政治風險導致世界四分五裂,並導致增長放緩和通貨膨脹加劇。

  • Those are the kind of things we start to have to worry about and hedge against.

    這些都是我們開始需要擔心和防範的。

  • It's interesting, Nouriel, a lot of things you just said are what a Bitcoiner would say as to why you should buy Bitcoin.

    有趣的是,Nouriel,你剛才說的很多話都是一個比特幣玩家說的,為什麼你應該買比特幣。

  • There's now the Bitcoin ETFs.

    現在又有了比特幣 ETF。

  • They're over $100 billion, clearly a big hit.

    它們超過了 1000 億美元,顯然是個大熱門。

  • There's talk that it could be a strategic reserve.

    有傳言說它可能成為戰略儲備。

  • You have gold in the portfolio.

    你的投資組合中有黃金。

  • Is there anything that could move you to add Bitcoin to your ETF to help accomplish some of these goals?

    是否有任何事情可以促使您將比特幣添加到您的 ETF 中,以幫助實現這些目標?

  • You know, Bitcoin is highly volatile.

    要知道,比特幣的波動性很大。

  • It can go up by 10% one day and down 10%, 15% another day.

    前一天可能上漲 10%,後一天可能下跌 10%、15%。

  • If you want to have a stable store of value, you would not put Bitcoin into your portfolio.

    如果你想擁有穩定的價值儲存,就不會把比特幣放入你的投資組合中。

  • The kind of assets we're actually thinking about are all assets that do well when you have lower growth and you have higher inflation, whether it's tips, short-term treasuries, gold is a hedge against inflation, the basement, de-dollarization, geopolitics, financial crisis, some exposure to commodities that are going to do well in a world of inflation and climate change, and environmentally sustainable rates.

    實際上,我們考慮的資產都是在經濟增長放緩、通脹加劇的情況下表現良好的資產,無論是小費、短期國債,還是對沖通脹、地下室、去美元化、地緣政治、金融危機的黃金,以及在通脹和氣候變化的世界裡表現良好的大宗商品和環境可持續利率。

  • So it's a diversified portfolio of assets that historically have done well in these types of tail risks.

    是以,這是一個多樣化的資產投資組合,歷史上在此類尾部風險中表現出色。

  • I'm skeptical for a lot of reasons about cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin because they're not currencies.

    出於很多原因,我對加密貨幣和比特幣持懷疑態度,因為它們不是貨幣。

  • They're not a unit of account.

    它們不是記賬組織、部門。

  • They're not the scale of means of payment.

    它們不是支付手段的規模。

  • They're not the stable store of value.

    它們不是穩定的價值存儲。

  • And if you want wealth preservation rather than high volatility, you want to stay away from those types of assets.

    如果你想要財富保值而不是高波動性,你就應該遠離這類資產。

  • It's really interesting to hear those comments because, I mean, as Eric pointed out, some of the things you're saying really resonate with a lot of the crypto community.

    聽到這些評論真的很有意思,因為,我的意思是,正如埃裡克指出的那樣,你所說的一些事情真的引起了很多加密社區的共鳴。

  • But it sounds like that volatility is just keeping you away here.

    但聽起來,這種不穩定性讓你遠離了這裡。

  • But, I mean, the argument can be made that you take a look at gold and it's not exactly a reliable hedge of inflation.

    但是,我的意思是,可以這樣說,你看看黃金,它並不是一個可靠的對沖通脹的工具。

  • I mean, it goes back and forth over the past four years.

    我的意思是,在過去的四年裡,它反反覆覆。

  • I know we're close to record highs right now.

    我知道我們現在接近歷史最高點。

  • But when it comes to a stable store of value, are you sure that you found it in gold?

    但是,說到穩定的價值儲存,你確定是在黃金中找到的嗎?

  • Well, gold has the benefit that has a variety of hedging characteristics.

    那麼,黃金的好處就是具有多種對沖特性。

  • Usually, when inflation is higher, it does well.

    通常,通脹率越高,它的表現就越好。

  • When there is a risk of debasement of share currency, it does well.

    當股票貨幣有貶值風險時,它的表現就會很好。

  • In a world in which central banks are moving away from the dollar asset because of the dollarization, because we've weaponized the dollar for national security and foreign policy reasons, gold goes higher.

    由於美元化,由於我們出於國家安全和外交政策的原因將美元武器化,各國央行正在遠離美元資產,在這樣的世界裡,黃金會走高。

  • Part of the reason why gold has gone higher 40% this year is because central banks of our arrival are diversifying away.

    黃金今年走高 40% 的部分原因是,我們各國的中央銀行正在分散投資。

  • When there's a financial crisis and your money is not even safe in a bank, gold does well.

    當發生金融危機,你的錢放在銀行裡都不安全時,黃金就會表現出色。

  • So it's not a perfect asset, can go up and down.

    是以,它並不是一個完美的資產,會時好時壞。

  • It's one element of a portfolio where you're hedging against a variety of tail risks.

    它是投資組合中的一個要素,可以對沖各種尾部風險。

  • And from that point of view, it's a better store of value than cryptocurrencies that are based on nothing, that are vaporware.

    從這個角度來看,它比那些毫無根據、只是虛無飄渺的加密貨幣更能存儲價值。

  • All right.

    好的

  • Nouriel Roubini, always with the sharp insights.

    努裡埃爾-魯比尼,始終保持著敏銳的洞察力。

  • Nouriel Roubini of Roubini Macro Associates.

    Roubini Macro Associates 公司的 Nouriel Roubini。

  • Thank you so much for joining us today.

    非常感謝您今天的到來。

  • Still ahead, we're going to take a look at why Wall Street bull Tom Lee is betting big on ETFs, including his own.

    接下來,我們將看看華爾街大牛股湯姆-李(Tom Lee)為何大舉押注 ETF,包括他自己的基金。

  • That's next.

    下一個

  • And this is Bloomberg.

    這裡是彭博社。

  • This is Bloomberg ETFIQ.

    這是彭博 ETFIQ。

  • I'm Katie Greif along with Scarlett Fu and Eric Valchunis.

    我是凱蒂-格里夫,還有斯嘉麗-傅和埃裡克-瓦爾丘尼斯。

  • It's a very special edition of ETFIQ.

    這是一期非常特別的 ETFIQ。

  • On a Wednesday, we were just talking to Nouriel Roubini, of course, who just launched his own ETF, his debut ETF.

    週三,我們剛剛與努裡埃爾-魯比尼(Nouriel Roubini)進行了交談,當然,他剛剛推出了自己的ETF,這是他首次推出ETF。

  • Tom Lee of Fundstrat also has found his way into the wrapper.

    Fundstrat 公司的湯姆-李(Tom Lee)也參與了包裝。

  • It's interesting, you know, kind of a bearish point of view.

    這很有趣,你知道,這是一種看跌的觀點。

  • And then the Super Bowl, Tom Lee, and they both launched around the same time.

    然後是 "超級碗"、"湯姆-李",它們都是在同一時間推出的。

  • It was just felt right, I guess.

    我想,這只是感覺對了。

  • I forgot to ask what a granny shot.

    我忘了問 "老奶奶 "是什麼了。

  • Oh, a granny shot.

    哦,一個老奶奶的鏡頭。

  • OK, so in basketball, they used to shoot free throws under their legs.

    好吧,在籃球比賽中,他們習慣於在腿下罰球。

  • Rick Barry was the famous one.

    裡克-巴里就是那個有名的人。

  • And studies have shown you actually shoot a higher percentage of free throws.

    研究表明,你的罰球命中率實際上更高。

  • But the NBA guys will not do it because it just looks kind of lame.

    但 NBA 球員不會這麼做,因為這看起來有點蹩腳。

  • So it's interesting.

    所以這很有趣。

  • He's taking what works in basketball and applying it here.

    他將籃球運動中行之有效的方法運用到了這裡。

  • And some of the stocks you may know, you know, Tesla's in here, Netflix.

    有些股票你可能知道,比如特斯拉、Netflix。

  • But there's only 37 companies.

    但只有 37 家公司。

  • So this is a highly concentrated sort of like best ideas of Tom Lee ETF.

    是以,這是一種高度集中的類似於通利 ETF 最佳創意的基金。

  • And it's got $430 million, which is phenomenal for a couple of weeks.

    它的票房達到了 4.3 億美元,這在幾周內是非常驚人的。

  • So he calls it an unconventional pick, I guess, for an unconventional basketball free throw style that he likes.

    是以,我猜他稱這是一個非常規的選秀,因為他喜歡一種非常規的籃球罰球方式。

  • And by the way, the name of the ETF is the Granny Shots U.S.

    對了,ETF 的名稱是 Granny Shots U.S.。

  • Large Cap ETF.

    大型 ETF。

  • So that's why.

    這就是原因。

  • That was an important context that I should have put in there.

    這是一個重要的背景,我應該把它寫進去。

  • Well, because we're a little bewildered as a white granny shot.

    好吧,因為作為一個白人老太太,我們有點不知所措。

  • You know what?

    你知道嗎?

  • Not everyone understands that reference.

    不是每個人都能理解這種說法。

  • Well, it got you thinking, right?

    這讓你開始思考了,對嗎?

  • There's 400 U.S. large cap equity ETFs.

    有 400 種美國大型股票 ETF。

  • And there's like another thousand mutual funds.

    另外還有上千個共同基金。

  • There's just so much.

    實在是太多了。

  • It's crowded over there.

    那邊很擁擠

  • So to come up with another way to phrase it.

    所以,換一種說法吧。

  • And it's something that matches with your style.

    這也是與你的風格相匹配的東西。

  • Plus, you have Tom Lee, who has a following.

    另外,你還有湯姆-李,他有很多追隨者。

  • You know, that's a good combination to kind of stand out from the crowd.

    你知道,這是一個從人群中脫穎而出的好組合。

  • That's half the battle with ETFs.

    這就是 ETF 成功的一半。

  • You've got to get break through the clutter.

    你必須打破雜亂無章的局面。

  • And this is a very crowded category.

    而這是一個非常擁擠的類別。

  • Yeah.

    是啊

  • And it's really interesting.

    這真的很有趣。

  • I mean, it's part of the trend that these active portfolios are becoming more concentrated.

    我的意思是,這些主動投資組合越來越集中,這是趨勢的一部分。

  • It's definitely one of the stories of 2024.

    這絕對是 2024 年的故事之一。

  • But I think we have to say goodbye now.

    但我想我們現在必須說再見了。

  • On to our special edition of ETFIQ.

    現在進入我們的 ETFIQ 特別版。

  • You can read all about the industry, though, when you subscribe to our weekly ETFIQ newsletter.

    不過,如果您訂閱了我們的 ETFIQ 每週時事通訊,就可以瞭解該行業的所有資訊。

  • That's Bloomberg.com slash newsletters.

    這就是 Bloomberg.com slash newsletters。

  • That does it for now.

    暫時就這樣吧。

  • I'm Katie Greifeld, along with Scarlett Fu and Eric Valchunis.

    我是凱蒂-格雷菲爾德,還有斯嘉麗-傅和埃裡克-瓦爾丘尼斯。

  • Have a great Thanksgiving.

    感恩節愉快

  • This is Bloomberg.

    這裡是彭博社。

Welcome to Bloomberg ETFIQ.

歡迎訪問彭博 ETFIQ。

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彭博 ETF IQ 11/27/2024 (Bloomberg ETF IQ 11/27/2024)

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    bonnie 發佈於 2024 年 11 月 28 日
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