The trouble is, Peloton believed the story around it a little too much.

問題是，Peloton 過於相信周圍的故事了。

And it didn't entirely recognize the market opportunities around it.

它也沒有完全認識到周圍的市場機會。

So Peloton was founded in 2012 by John Foley, who was a former Barnes & Noble executive.

是以，Peloton 於 2012 年由 John Foley 創立，他曾是巴諾書店（Barnes & Noble）的高管。

It raised a total of $4 million that year in angel investments and a Series A round.

該公司當年通過天使投資和 A 輪融資共籌集了 400 萬美元。

The next year, it raised $300,000 in a Kickstarter campaign to try and bring its project to life.

第二年，它在 Kickstarter 上籌集了 30 萬美元，試圖將項目付諸實施。

Soon after, Peloton started shipping bikes, and it opened its first studio in New York City, too.

不久之後，Peloton 開始出產自行車，並在紐約開設了第一家工作室。

I want to welcome you to Peloton Studios New York.

歡迎來到紐約 Peloton 工作室。

It's kind of part of that cohort of boutique spin brands like SoulCycle or Flywheel that were popping up all over the place during that time.

它是 SoulCycle 或 Flywheel 等精品自旋品牌的一部分，這些品牌在那段時間如雨後春筍般湧現。

But Peloton's whole shtick, of course, isn't people going to a studio to ride.

當然，Peloton 的全部把戲並不是讓人們去工作室騎車。

It's the bikes that are at home, with tablets attached where people can stream classes.

這些自行車可以放在家裡，並附帶平板電腦，人們可以通過平板電腦串流課程。

Peloton's sales took off.

Peloton 的銷售額突飛猛進。

Its instructors, like Robin Arzon and Cody Rigsby and Allie Love, became stars.

羅賓-阿宗、科迪-瑞斯比和艾莉-樂芙等教練都成了明星。

Get off the couch and move your ass.

從沙發上站起來，動動你的屁股。

Do 10 squats.

做 10 個深蹲。

They amassed thousands of followers on social media and appeared regularly on talk shows.

他們在社交媒體上積累了成千上萬的粉絲，並經常出現在脫口秀節目中。

Rigsby was even on Dancing with the Stars.

瑞斯比甚至還參加過《與星共舞》。

Peloton has also inspired some copycat connected fitness products.

Peloton 還激發了一些山寨聯網健身產品的靈感。

Think of Mirror, which is what it sounds like, a mirror that hangs on your wall, but also it's for fitness, or Tonal, which is for weight training.

想想 "鏡子"（Mirror），它聽起來就像一面掛在牆上的鏡子，但它也是用於健身的；或者 "音調"（Tonal），它是用於重量訓練的。

In 2018, Peloton expanded its offering and launched a treadmill to go along with its bike.

2018 年，Peloton 擴大了產品範圍，推出了與自行車配套的跑步機。

Let's row, baby.

來划船吧，寶貝

Yes.

是的。

Let's get it, Peloton.

來吧，Peloton。

And nowadays it has a rower, too.

如今，它還有一個划船器。

Peloton was so popular that it grew to have 1.4 million members and was valued at $8 billion when it went public in the fall of 2019.

Peloton 如此受歡迎，以至於發展到擁有 140 萬會員，2019 年秋季上市時估值達到 80 億美元。

A couple of months later, Peloton made a splash after its holiday ad went viral.

幾個月後，Peloton 的節日廣告在網上瘋傳，引起轟動。

It is a husband giving his wife a Peloton bike for Christmas, which seems nice enough, I guess.

這是一位丈夫送給妻子一輛 Peloton 自行車作為聖誕禮物，我想這看起來已經很不錯了。

First ride.

第一次騎行

I'm a little nervous, but excited.

我有點緊張，但也很興奮。

Let's do this.

我們開始吧

Then she spends the entire year making these pain-looking selfie videos of herself on the bike and kind of puts them together into a video for the next Christmas.

然後，她花了整整一年的時間，拍攝自己騎車時痛苦的自拍視頻，並把這些視頻整理成一個視頻，準備在下一個聖誕節播放。

And there was quite a bit of backlash around that.

這引起了很大反響。

It's not great to think that a husband is kind of giving his wife something so that she can be thin and fit.

如果認為丈夫是為了讓妻子變得苗條健美而給她一些東西，那就不好了。

And Peloton had to do a little bit of cleanup after that.

之後，Peloton 不得不做一些清理工作。

Peloton's big break came with a pandemic and the onset of COVID-19.

Peloton 的重大突破源於一場大流行病和 COVID-19 的爆發。

Everybody's stuck at home, the gyms are shut down, and a lot of people are sitting around to think, oh, I might as well get a Peloton.

每個人都被困在家裡，健身房也關閉了，很多人坐在那裡想，哦，我不如買一輛 Peloton。

Its sales surged by 200% in November 2020 compared to the year before.

與前一年相比，2020 年 11 月的銷售額激增了 200%。

And it had its first billion-dollar quarter the last three months of that year.

這一年的最後三個月，它首次創造了價值十億美元的季度業績。

Obviously, with that big surge in demand, Peloton had to try and react to meet that demand.

顯然，隨著需求的激增，Peloton 不得不做出反應，以滿足這一需求。

And a lot of customers were complaining at the time that they were waiting months and months for the bikes.

當時，很多客戶抱怨說，他們要等上好幾個月才能買到自行車。

So what Peloton did, naturally, is to invest in its supply chain and in manufacturing in an attempt to catch up and meet that demand.

是以，Peloton 自然而然地投資於供應鏈和生產，試圖趕上並滿足這一需求。

Peloton's stock price exploded during that time, too.

在此期間，Peloton 的股價也一路飆升。

Its market cap peaked around $50 billion in late 2020.

其市值在 2020 年底達到頂峰，約為 500 億美元。

Like Zoom and Clorox, it was a solid stay-at-home bet for Wall Street.

與 Zoom 和 Clorox 一樣，它也是華爾街穩賺不賠的賭注。

The story around Peloton was really exciting, kind of going from zero to 100 very fast.

圍繞 Peloton 的故事非常精彩，從零到一百的速度非常快。

It's an appealing narrative.

這是一個吸引人的故事。

It's hot, right?

很熱吧？

But the problem is sort of that Peloton believed the story a little bit too much.

但問題是，Peloton 有點太相信這個故事了。

It really bought into the narrative, and it didn't really see that it wasn't really real, and that's kind of how it landed where it is today.

它真的相信了這種說法，卻沒有真正意識到這並不是真的，這就是它今天的處境。

Peloton eventually caught up on the supply side.

Peloton 最終在供應方面迎頭趕上。

The problem is that by the time it did, the demand wasn't really there anymore.

問題是，到了那個時候，需求其實已經不存在了。

The COVID vaccines had come out, a lot of gyms were opening back up, and people didn't want to work out at home anymore.

COVID 疫苗問世後，很多健身房重新開張，人們不想再在家鍛鍊了。

People were happy to leave their homes.

人們樂於離開自己的家園。

COVID also pulled forward a lot of demand for Peloton's products.

同時，COVID 也拉動了對 Peloton 產品的大量需求。

That means somebody who maybe would've bought a bike in 2022 or 2023 did so in 2020.

這意味著，原本可能在 2022 年或 2023 年購買自行車的人，卻在 2020 年買了。

There's also just a limited number of people who will ever buy a Peloton at all, especially given how expensive they are.

購買 Peloton 的人也很有限，尤其是考慮到其價格昂貴。

The basic bike now, and it's cheaper than it used to be, is $1,500.

現在的基本自行車價格是 1500 美元，比以前便宜了。

Before, it was $2,000.

之前是 2000 美元。

The treadmill is $3,000.

跑步機是 3000 美元。

And again, these are the basic levels, so the fancier ones are even more.

再說一遍，這些都是基本級別，所以更高級別的級別會更高。

This is a really big investment, and as we know with a lot of fitness products, a lot of us have a lot of aspirations about going to the gym and getting fit, and we fail at those, and then we wind up with expensive stuff that we don't want anymore.

這是一筆非常大的投資，正如我們對很多健身產品所瞭解的那樣，我們很多人都有很多去健身房鍛鍊身體的願望，但我們都失敗了，最後我們買了昂貴的東西，卻不再想要了。

And even if you really are a huge Peloton fan, you're not gonna buy six bikes, right?

即使你真的是 Peloton 的忠實粉絲，你也不會買六輛自行車吧？

You're gonna have one bike, maybe you'll get a treadmill, but you're not buying a bunch of equipment.

你會有一輛自行車，也許你會買一臺跑步機，但你不會買一大堆設備。

Peloton paused production in early 2022 in an attempt to control costs.

為控制成本，Peloton 於 2022 年初暫停生產。

By the end of June, its full-year net loss was $2.8 billion.

截至 6 月底，其全年淨虧損為 28 億美元。

Peloton has also seen its fair share of leadership shakeups.

Peloton 的領導層也發生過動盪。

John Foley, who'd led the company for its entire existence, stepped down as CEO in February of 2022.

約翰-福裡（John Foley）上司了公司的整個發展歷程，於 2022 年 2 月卸任首席執行官一職。

He handed control over to Barry McCarthy, who'd previously done stints at Spotify and Netflix.

他將控制權交給了曾在 Spotify 和 Netflix 任職的 Barry McCarthy。

McCarthy's out now, too.

麥卡錫現在也出來了。

He left in 2024, and a pair of interim CEOs took over for him.

他於 2024 年離職，兩位臨時首席執行官接替了他的工作。

Business-wise, Peloton just hasn't been able to find its footing.

在業務方面，Peloton 一直沒有找到自己的立足點。

Its stock price has plunged, and its market cap is under $2 billion.

其股價暴跌，市值不足 20 億美元。

Remember, at its peak, it was valued at $50 billion, so 25 times that.

請記住，在其巔峰時期，它的估值為 500 億美元，是現在的 25 倍。

The company has had to issue recalls for both its treadmills and its bikes.

該公司不得不對跑步機和自行車進行召回。

It's done layoffs, and some of its star instructors have headed for the exit.

它進行了裁員，一些明星教員也離開了。

I am moving on from Peloton.

我將離開 Peloton。

I'm choosing to close my chapter at Peloton.

我選擇結束在 Peloton 的工作。

It's time to take a break from teaching at Peloton.

是時候從 Peloton 的教學工作中解脫出來了。

Peloton's had some weird PR debacles, too.

Peloton 也有過一些奇怪的公關失敗。

If you think back to late 2021, when And Just Like That premiered, which is the revival of Sex and the City.

如果你回想一下 2021 年末《就這樣》的首映，也就是《慾望都市》的復映。

In the very first episode, Mr. Big dies while on a Peloton bike.

在第一集中，大個子先生在騎 Peloton 自行車時死了。

Also not a great look.

也不好看。

And after that, Peloton again tried to do some cleanup with an ad featuring the actor kind of making light of the situation.

在此之後，Peloton 公司又試圖通過一則由演員出演的廣告來澄清事實。

But pretty soon after that, he was hit with sexual assault allegations.

但不久之後，他就遭到了性侵犯指控。

And so, again, kind of an unfortunate oops for Peloton.

是以，對於 Peloton 來說，這又是一次不幸的失誤。

But Peloton isn't a lost cause.

但是，Peloton 並非一無所獲。

It has about 3 million paid subscribers who all give it $40 every month.

它擁有約 300 萬付費用戶，他們每月都會向它支付 40 美元。

That's a great business model.

這是一個很好的商業模式。

Holding on to those subscribers isn't an easy task, though Peloton is doing a decent job.

儘管 Peloton 做得還不錯，但要留住這些用戶並非易事。

Still, given the state of its finances and debt, it's not clear Peloton can make it work.

儘管如此，考慮到其財務和債務狀況，Peloton 能否成功還不得而知。

A lot of Peloton's problem, at least according to some analysts, is that it's investing in the wrong places.

至少一些分析師認為，Peloton 的問題主要在於投資方向不對。

It really, again, to get back to this idea that it believed its own story, it's been really focused on investing in marketing and in growing its customer base.

再次回到 "它相信自己的故事 "這一理念，它一直專注於投資營銷和擴大客戶群。

And a better strategy might be to focus on the people who do have it and do like it and its user base and really cultivating those people.

更好的策略可能是關注那些擁有它、喜歡它的人及其用戶群，並真正培養這些人。

Again, it has a lot of subscribers.

同樣，它也有很多訂戶。

It also wants to keep those people around.

它還想把這些人留在身邊。

And it does have a fair amount of churn.

它確實有相當大的流失率。

It does lose subscribers sometimes.

有時確實會失去訂戶。

But it's done so far a pretty decent job of holding on to people.

但到目前為止，它在留住人們方面做得還不錯。

I think another thing to think about is that Peloton's story would look different if the pandemic hadn't happened, if you hadn't seen this giant surge in the middle, if you hadn't seen that stock pop.

我認為另一個值得思考的問題是，如果大流行病沒有發生，如果你沒有看到中間的巨幅飆升，如果你沒有看到股票大漲，Peloton 的故事就會有所不同。

You might look at Peloton today and say, this doesn't look so bad.

你今天看到 Peloton 時可能會說，這看起來還不錯。

And they might not have also made some of the investments that have come back to bite them.

而且，他們可能也沒有進行一些投資，而這些投資卻反過來咬了他們一口。

There's also a reality that fitness trends are constantly changing.

還有一個現實是，健身趨勢在不斷變化。

We tend to treat fitness like a fad or like fashion.

我們往往把健身當成一種時尚或流行。

Three, two, alternate, and one.

三、二、候補和一。

If you think back to Taibo in the 90s or the Thighmaster in the 80s, a lot of those fads have come and go.

如果你回想一下 90 年代的 Taibo 或 80 年代的 Thighmaster，很多時尚都來了又去。

And it's hard not to look at Peloton and think that's probably where this is headed.

看著 Peloton，你很難不想到這可能就是它的發展方向。

I will note here that Taibo does still exist, which most people don't know.

在此我要說明的是，泰博確實還存在，但大多數人並不知道。

People also get bored with workouts.

人們也會對鍛鍊感到厭倦。

They're kind of looking to do a new thing all of the time.

他們一直在尋找新的東西。

And even if you really love Peloton and you think the instructors are super fun and entertaining, you just don't want to be on a stationary bike forever.

即使你真的很喜歡 Peloton，覺得教練超級有趣和好玩，你也不想永遠騎在固定自行車上。

For people who do really love Peloton, you don't have to worry that your favorite instructor is going away tomorrow.

對於真正熱愛 Peloton 的人來說，您不必擔心您最喜歡的教練明天就會離開。

There's always speculation that maybe a bigger company would buy Peloton or maybe private equity would swoop in.

人們總在猜測，也許會有更大的公司收購 Peloton，也許會有私募股權投資介入。

It's not going under tomorrow.

它明天就不會下水了。

And I do think also the good news is if you don't have a Peloton and you've been thinking about buying one, it's not the worst time to buy.

我認為好消息是，如果你還沒有 Peloton，但你一直在考慮買一臺，現在買也不是最壞的時機。

The bikes and treadmills are cheaper than they used to be.

自行車和跑步機比以前便宜了。

Peloton's mistake is that it got too high in its own supply and it sort of believed the hype around it a little too much.

Peloton 的錯誤在於，它對自己的供應量過於自信，有點過於相信周圍的炒作。

It thought it would grow forever.

它以為自己會永遠生長下去。

Now it's come back down to earth, and that come down feels like a crash.

現在，它又回到了地球上，而這種迴歸的感覺就像是墜落。