German far-right hails historic election victory in East

德國極右翼歡呼東部地區大選取得歷史性勝利

Under Björn Höcke, the party has cleaned up in one of the poorest areas of Germany.

在比約恩-霍克（Björn Höcke）的上司下，該黨在德國最貧窮的地區之一實現了復興。

And this is not an isolated case.

這並非個案。

It was also in the East, in former Soviet Germany, that AFD smashed its rivals in the recent European elections.

同樣是在東方，在前蘇聯的德國，民主力量聯盟在最近的歐洲大選中擊敗了對手。

So why is AFD making such a big splash in Eastern Germany?

那麼，為什麼民主力量聯盟會在德國東部引起如此大的轟動呢？

The reason seems quite clear.

原因似乎很清楚。

The poorest people, who live in the former communist territories, are also the ones who suffer the most from immigration, and their problems are not solved by the classic traditional left-wing parties that have stopped caring so much about the working class and are now more concerned with urban trivialities such as electric cars.

生活在前共產主義領土上的最貧困人口也是受移民影響最大的群體，他們的問題不是傳統的左翼政黨所能解決的，這些政黨已經不再那麼關心工人階級，現在更關心電動汽車等城市瑣事。

But this is not what we're here to talk about in this video.

但這不是我們在本視頻中要討論的內容。

We've come to talk about what exactly Alternative für Germany is proposing to revitalize Germany's flagging economy.

我們來談談德國另類選擇黨究竟提出了哪些振興德國經濟的建議。

Because yes, as we told you in a previous video, the Teutonic Giant has been in the doldrums for a few years now.

因為是的，正如我們在之前的視頻中所說，這個日耳曼巨人幾年來一直處於低迷狀態。

German workers are suffering the consequences by getting poorer.

德國工人正在承受著越來越窮的後果。

But politicians don't seem to be offering realistic solutions.

但政客們似乎並沒有提出現實的解決方案。

And here is where AFD comes into play.

這就是 AFD 的作用所在。

This party is well known for its rejection of immigration, Islam, gender ideology and all those things.

該黨以反對移民、伊斯蘭教、性別意識形態等著稱。

But what economic policies would they carry out if they managed to win the general elections?

但是，如果他們在大選中獲勝，他們會執行什麼樣的經濟政策呢？

How does AFD want to change the economy of the European Colossus?

民主力量聯盟希望如何改變歐洲巨人的經濟？

Today on VisualEconomic we're going to tell you all about it.

今天，我們將在 "視覺經濟 "節目中向您介紹這一切。

The history of AFD began at the hands of this man, Bernard Lucke, a professor of macroeconomics at the Habsburg University.

民主力量聯盟的歷史就是從這個人--哈布斯堡大學宏觀經濟學教授伯納德-盧克--手中開始的。

I know, he looks like anything but an anti-immigration activist.

我知道，他看起來不像是反移民活動家。

An economics professor getting into this kind of trouble?

經濟學教授會惹上這種麻煩？

Come on, I'd sooner believe he joined the chess club and got fired for being bored.

拜託，我更願意相信他參加了國際象棋俱樂部，然後因為無聊被解僱了。

The point is that, deep down, there is some truth to it.

關鍵是，在內心深處，它是有一定道理的。

Which is when he founded AFD, we would hardly recognize the party.

也就是在他創建 AFD 的時候，我們幾乎認不出這個黨了。

Bernard Lucke created a conservative party that was certainly no friend of Islam, but he cared little about the immigration issue.

伯納德-盧克創建的保守黨當然不是伊斯蘭教的朋友，但他對移民問題並不關心。

To give you an idea, it didn't even appear in the party's program.

為了讓你有所瞭解，它甚至沒有出現在晚會的節目單上。

Keep in mind that, at that time, the great waves of refugees and immigrants had just begun.

要知道，當時難民和移民大潮才剛剛開始。

There was no massive social resentment about it yet.

當時還沒有出現大規模的社會不滿情緒。

In reality, the alternative for Germany of 2013 was a party composed of angry pro-market economists whose leitmotif was that they didn't agree with Southern Europe living the life of Reilly at the expense of indebting the German taxpayer.

實際上，2013 年德國的替代方案是一個由憤怒的親市場經濟學家組成的政黨，他們的主旋律是不同意南歐以德國納稅人的債務為代價過著賴利的生活。

And the trigger for it all was the EU bailout of Greece.

而這一切的導火索就是歐盟對希臘的救助。

For Lucke, the Euro was a terrible invention that meant that the most profligate countries had artificially low interest rates, which they used to get even deeper into debt, while

在盧克看來，歐元是一個可怕的發明，它意味著最揮霍無度的國家擁有人為的低利率，而這些國家卻利用低利率更加深陷債務泥潭。

Germany and the other more fiscally sensible countries had to foot the entire bill.

德國和其他在財政上比較明智的國家不得不承擔全部費用。

And let's see, the Euro has many positive things going for it, but in this respect we have to admit that they were right.

讓我們看看，歐元有許多積極的一面，但在這一點上，我們不得不承認他們是對的。

So AFD was basically a party with a program focused on the economy and defending a current known as auto-liberalism.

是以，AFD 基本上是一個黨派，其綱領側重於經濟，並捍衛一種被稱為自動自由主義的潮流。

And what on earth is auto-liberalism?

什麼是自動自由主義？

Because the name seems more like something you would call the offspring of Sauron and

因為這個名字看起來更像是索倫和......

Javier Melei.

哈維爾-梅萊

Well, instead of just telling you what this auto-liberalism is all about, let me illustrate it with a story.

好吧，與其告訴你這種自動自由主義是怎麼回事，不如讓我用一個故事來說明。

After the defeat of the Nazis at the end of the Second World War, the western part of

第二次世界大戰結束後，納粹戰敗後，美國西部地區成為了美國的殖民地。

Germany was left in the hands of this gentleman, Ludwig Erhardt, who, although he may resemble

德國被交到了路德維希-艾哈特先生的手中。

Damrod from the Rings of Power, is actually the father of the German economic miracle.

權力之戒》中的達姆羅德實際上是德國經濟奇蹟之父。

Of course, the Federal Republic was still in a war economy, prices were frozen and the job of every German was decided by a bureaucrat according to the needs of the country.

當然，聯邦共和國仍處於戰爭經濟時期，物價被凍結，每個德國人的工作都由官僚根據國家需要決定。

Of course, Erhardt was not alone.

當然，埃哈特並不孤單。

And at least he had the support of the United States, which, along with offering economic aid, also sent lots of advisers to revive economic activity.

至少他得到了美國的支持，美國在提供經濟援助的同時，還派出了大量顧問來重振經濟活動。

Well, on the 20th of June 1948, the American commander, Lucius Clay, telephones Erhardt.

1948 年 6 月 20 日，美軍指揮官盧修斯-克萊給埃哈特打電話。

Hey, Ludwig, look, I've been told that you want to load the price controls by your own, without asking anyone.

嘿，路德維格，聽著，有人告訴我，你想不徵求任何人的意見，自己來控制價格。

Is that true?

這是真的嗎？

That's right, Lucius.

沒錯，盧修斯

My advisers tell me that this will be a disaster, that you're putting your foot in your mouth.

我的顧問告訴我，這將是一場災難，你這是自作自受。

Yeah, mine tell me the same thing.

是啊，我的孩子也是這麼跟我說的。

Erhardt ignored everybody.

埃哈特無視所有人。

He did whatever he wanted.

他想做什麼就做什麼。

He hoped that the basic economics textbooks that say price controls don't work were right.

他希望那些說價格控制不起作用的基本經濟學教科書是正確的。

And boy, were they right.

天啊，他們是對的。

In just a couple of days, the German markets were filled to the brim with food.

短短几天內，德國市場就被食品填得滿滿當當。

And this anecdote illustrates very well the basic point of auto-liberalism.

這則軼事很好地說明了自動自由主義的基本觀點。

That is to say, to apply the ideas of Adam Smith and the introductory books to economics of the first degree, the most basic, but that without having problems in redistributing wealth to alleviate the consequences of the war and to have a system with enough social support to last in time.

也就是說，運用亞當-斯密的思想和最基本的經濟學入門書籍，但又不存在財富再分配的問題，以減輕戰爭的後果，並建立一個有足夠社會支持的體系，使其能夠長期存在。

Something that Adam Smith also argued, for instance, in the first chapter of Book 5 of the Wealth of Nations.

例如，亞當-斯密在《國富論》第五卷第一章中也論證了這一點。

Well, the ideas of Bernard Lucker, the founder of AFD, were along the same lines.

法國民主聯盟的創始人伯納德-盧克（Bernard Lucker）的想法也是如此。

A little less taxation, a little less public spending, less regulation.

少一點稅收，少一點公共開支，少一點監管。

But he was also not as breakaway as it seems.

但他也並不像想象中的那樣，一意孤行。

However, in the 2013 elections, Alternative for Germany didn't even reach the minimum 5% of votes needed to sit in parliament.

然而，在 2013 年的選舉中，德國選擇黨甚至沒有達到進入議會所需的 5%最低票數。

It was a party that only excited a few academic geeks and a small part of the population which, as you can probably guess, was the part with the highest income.

這是一個只讓少數學術怪才和一小部分人興奮的聚會，而這部分人，正如你可能猜到的，是收入最高的那部分人。

If you look at it, the situation was the opposite of the current situation, where the people who vote for the party the most now are low-income people.

如果你看看，當時的情況與現在的情況正好相反，現在投票給該黨最多的人是低收入者。

So what changed?

有什麼變化？

The change came when, in 2015, Bernard Lucker was removed from the party.

2015 年，伯納德-盧克（Bernard Lucker）被清除出黨，這才有了變化。

Bernard Lucker's successor was Frauke Petry, who actively proposed to forget all about economics, autoliberalism and the rest.

伯納德-盧克的繼任者是弗勞克-佩特里（Frauke Petry），她積極建議忘掉經濟學、自 由主義和其他一切。

What's more, since the Greek bailout and Europe's financial problems were already far behind them, they invited her to focus on the social issues we are all familiar with.

更重要的是，由於希臘的救助和歐洲的金融問題已經遠遠拋在了腦後，他們邀請她關注我們都熟悉的社會問題。

As you can see, after the change of leadership, the party practically abandoned economic issues and shifted its focus to social issues.

可以看出，領導層更迭後，該黨實際上放棄了經濟問題，將重點轉向了社會問題。

Remember that in 2015, immigration was really starting to be a problem for many.

請記住，在 2015 年，移民確實開始成為許多人的問題。

Refugees had already been crossing the borders for several years, and it's clear that the shift worked wonders for them.

難民穿越邊境已經有好幾年了，很明顯，這種轉變對他們來說是個奇蹟。

The change served, above all, to rally the country's least qualified workers.

這一變化首先是為了團結國內最不合格的工人。

To give you an idea, in 2013, just 4% of the party's voters had incomes of less than €1,000.

2013年，該黨僅有4%的選民收入低於1000歐元。

However, by 2016, this figure had grown to over 15%.

然而，到 2016 年，這一數字已增長到 15%以上。

Almost 1 out of 5 AFD voters is paid less than €1,000.

幾乎每 5 名民主力量聯盟選民中就有 1 人的工資不足 1 000 歐元。

In Germany, the shift to the right may seem better or worse to you.

在德國，向右轉對您來說可能更好，也可能更糟。

But what is clear is that these results have been achieved by giving a much more populist tone to their proposals.

但顯而易見的是，這些成果都是通過使他們的提案更具民粹主義色彩而取得的。

Above all, capturing voters with less education.

最重要的是，要抓住受教育程度較低的選民。

So much so that today Bernard Lucker regrets having founded the organization.

以至於今天，伯納德-勒克後悔創立了這個組織。

I regret what has become of the party.

我對黨的現狀感到遺憾。

It has developed from a professor party to an association based on the moods of the street.

它從一個教授聚會發展成為一個基於街道情緒的協會。

The party was initially full of good people with well-considered proposals.

該黨最初都是好人，提出的建議都經過深思熟慮。

Most have left.

大多數人已經離開。

With these things in mind, you will already be imagining that economic issues are rather secondary.

考慮到這些因素，你就會認為經濟問題是次要的。

However, they are not non-existent.

然而，它們並非不存在。

What exactly is AFD proposing for the German economy today?

今天，德國民主力量聯盟（AFD）究竟為德國經濟提出了什麼建議？

Well, the pillar of the program is basically the same old party's auto-liberal recipe, but not surprisingly, adding many asterisks.

那麼，該計劃的支柱基本上還是老一套的黨內自動自由主義食譜，但毫不奇怪，添加了許多星號。

The idea of lowering taxes is still present.

降低稅收的想法依然存在。

Among their proposals is to eliminate the wealth tax, the inheritance tax and also to lower the personal income tax.

他們的建議包括取消財富稅和遺產稅，以及降低個人所得稅。

Regarding VAT, it's not very clear because they talk about harmonizing it according to the income level of each region.

關於增值稅，這一點不是很清楚，因為他們說要根據各地區的收入水平來統一增值稅。

But of course, they don't say whether they want to harmonize it upwards or downwards.

當然，他們沒有說是要向上還是向下協調。

Yet perhaps their most interesting proposal is to create a kind of debt ceiling, but for taxes.

然而，他們最有趣的提議或許是設立一種債務上限，但卻是針對稅收的。

That is to say, to set by law the maximum percentage of GDP that the state can collect.

也就是說，通過法律規定國家可以徵收的國內生產總值的最高比例。

What a wonderful idea, don't you agree?

多好的主意啊，你說呢？

Yes, but no.

是的，但不是。

In practice, such ceilings are more for decoration than anything else.

實際上，這種天花板更多的是用於裝飾。

Without digging too deep, the US debt ceiling has been in existence for 100 years.

不用刨根問底，美國的債務上限已經存在了 100 年。

And 100 years have passed with politicians overriding it at the drop of a hat.

而 100 年過去了，政客們動輒就將其推翻。

In any case, unlike Uncle Sam, Germany is the country of fiscal austerity par excellence.

無論如何，與山姆大叔不同，德國是財政緊縮的典範。

So much so that today its public debt barely reaches 65% of GDP.

以至於如今其公共債務僅佔國內生產總值的 65%。

So less taxation has to mean less public spending, right?

那麼，減少稅收就意味著減少公共開支，對嗎？

Well that's not so clear.

這就不太清楚了。

Of course, AFD has proposed cutting several items.

當然，法國民主聯盟也建議削減幾個項目。

For example, they intend to eliminate unemployment benefits, but they want to do so in exchange for a new aid that, in theory, would provide more incentive to look for a job.

例如，他們打算取消失業救濟金，但希望以此換取一種新的援助，從理論上講，這種援助將為找工作提供更大的動力。

But who knows?

但誰知道呢？

In reality, everything indicates that the cuts proposed by the party are going to focus on its favorite issue, taking away aid to immigrants.

實際上，一切都表明，該黨提出的削減措施將集中在其最喜歡的問題上，即取消對移民的援助。

The populism manual says, select an enemy and make him or her the culprit of all your ills.

民粹主義手冊說，選擇一個敵人，讓他或她成為你所有弊病的罪魁禍首。

In this case, it has been the immigrants' turn.

在這種情況下，輪到了移民。

And in the case of the populist left, it is the evil rich and vulture funds.

而對於民粹主義左派來說，他們的目標就是邪惡的富人和禿鷲基金。

But let's be honest, although immigrants coming to Germany are usually not net taxpayers, that is, they receive much more than they contribute, they are not a burden that will wipe out public budgets either.

但老實說，雖然來德國的移民通常不是淨納稅人，也就是說，他們的所得遠遠超過他們的貢獻，但他們也不會成為耗盡公共預算的負擔。

In other words, limiting subsidies is fine, that may be reasonable.

換句話說，限制補貼是可以的，這可能是合理的。

But a different question is whether simply cutting subsidies to immigrants can compensate for all the tax cuts proposed by Petri.

但另一個問題是，僅僅削減對移民的補貼能否彌補佩特里提出的所有減稅措施。

If they want to maintain the German tradition of zero deficits, they're going to have to cut a lot more, not only in aid to foreigners.

如果他們想保持德國零赤字的傳統，就必須削減更多，不僅是對外國人的援助。

And the problem is that it isn't at all clear where they're going to get the money from.

而問題是，他們根本不清楚錢從哪裡來。

However, if these reductions in public spending have been somewhat disappointing, you should know that, in its economic program, there are proposals that would be a huge blow to the public coffers.

然而，如果說這些公共開支的削減有些令人失望，那麼你們應該知道，在其經濟計劃中，有一些建議將對國庫造成巨大打擊。

For example, they want family members who care for their elderly relatives, which is 70% of cases, to receive a tax reduction equivalent to receiving the salary of a nurse.

例如，他們希望照顧老年親屬的家庭成員（佔 70%）能夠獲得相當於護士工資的減稅。

And then there's one of the party's star policies, showering public money on families who want to have more children.

還有該黨的一項明星政策，即向想要更多孩子的家庭提供公共資金。

Because of course, as the country is facing a brutal demographic crisis, and they don't even want to hear about immigration, future taxpayers will have to come from somewhere.

當然，由於國家正面臨著殘酷的人口危機，而他們甚至不想聽到移民問題，是以未來的納稅人必須來自某個地方。

The amount is still not very clear.

數額還不是很清楚。

However, we already know that giving money to families for having children doesn't usually work.

然而，我們已經知道，給有孩子的家庭發錢通常不會奏效。

And there are thousands of cases of failure.

失敗的案例數以千計。

For example, Hungary recently dedicated 5% of the country's GDP to promote the birth rate.

例如，匈牙利最近將國家國內生產總值的 5%用於提高出生率。

It achieved absolutely nothing.

它完全一無所獲。

With these subsidies, what typically happens is that parents bring forward the age of their first child to collect the money.

對於這些補貼，通常的做法是，父母將第一個孩子的年齡提前，以便領取這筆錢。

But little else changes.

但其他方面幾乎沒有變化。

Be that as it may, AFD's measures go beyond taxes.

儘管如此，民主力量聯盟的措施並不侷限於稅收。

AFD members complain that immigrants don't integrate, that they don't work, that they depend on benefits.

民主力量聯盟成員抱怨移民不融入社會、不工作、依賴福利。

And again, in many cases, this is true.

同樣，在很多情況下，這也是事實。

The problem is that AFD also wants to pass another measure that will precisely aggravate this problem.

問題是，民主力量聯盟還想通過另一項措施，而這恰恰會加劇這一問題。

Maintaining, or even raising, the minimum wage.

維持甚至提高最低工資標準。

Thanks to many economic studies, we know that the minimum wage makes it difficult to create jobs, especially for people with lower qualifications.

通過許多經濟研究，我們知道最低工資很難創造就業機會，尤其是對學歷較低的人而言。

In other words, if we set a legal minimum of €2,000, then all those jobs that produce less than €2,000 for their companies will simply disappear.

換句話說，如果我們將法定最低工資定為 2 000 歐元，那麼所有那些為公司創造的收入低於 2 000 歐元的工作都會消失。

And who usually has access to these types of jobs?

通常誰有機會從事這類工作？

Indeed, immigrants.

的確是移民。

Low-skilled immigrants who often barely speak the local language.

低技能移民通常幾乎不會說當地語言。

In other words, a high minimum wage would further worsen the labour integration of immigrants.

換句話說，高最低工資會進一步惡化移民的勞動融合。

Don't the AFD leaders realise this?

難道民主力量聯盟的領導人沒有意識到這一點嗎？

Have they forgotten the famous auto-liberalism of their founder?

難道他們忘記了其創始人著名的自動自由主義？

Well, no.

嗯，沒有。

Most likely they are perfectly aware of the problem.

他們很可能完全意識到了這個問題。

But there's something else to consider.

但還有一點需要考慮。

AFD wins elections mainly in the poorer strata of society.

民主力量聯盟主要在貧困階層贏得選舉。

That means that, on the one hand, supporting minimum wage hikes is a populist strategy that is most effective among its supporters.

這意味著，一方面，支持提高最低工資是一種民粹主義策略，在其支持者中最為有效。

On the other hand, it's also a weapon of political confrontation.

另一方面，它也是一種政治對抗的武器。

According to AFD, the minimum wage is the perfect way to fight against the falling wages imposed by the massive influx of immigrants.

AFD 認為，最低工資是對抗大量移民湧入造成的工資下降的最佳方式。

Or to put it another way, the AFD intentionally seeks to drive migrants out of the labour market.

或者換一種說法，法國民主聯盟有意將移民趕出勞動力市場。

This may surprise you, but it's actually nothing new.

這可能會讓你大吃一驚，但其實這並不新鮮。

The idea of a minimum wage became popular in the US, not because of the progressive movement or unions, but because of racists who saw it as a tool to keep blacks out of jobs.

最低工資的想法在美國流行起來，並不是因為進步運動或工會，而是因為種族主義者將其視為阻止黑人就業的工具。

The idea was that, since blacks had less than average education, they wouldn't be productive enough to reach the minimum level for which the company could pay.

當時的想法是，由於黑人的教育水準低於平均水平，他們的生產力不足以達到公司可以支付的最低水平。

In other words, the minimum wage was the way to discriminate against them.

換句話說，最低工資就是歧視他們的方式。

And in this case, it seems that the Alternative for Germany party is following in the same footsteps.

在這種情況下，德國選擇黨似乎也在步其後塵。

Beyond migration issues, AFD also proposes other measures, such as the reduction of the bureaucracy so prevalent in Europe.

除了移民問題，法國民主聯盟還提出了其他措施，如減少歐洲盛行的官僚主義。

The problem is that all parties propose the same thing, and AFD gives no clue as to which specific laws it wants to cut or what their impact would be.

問題是，所有政黨都提出了同樣的建議，而法國民主力量黨卻沒有提供任何線索，說明它希望削減哪些具體法律，以及這些法律會產生什麼影響。

As a side note, in its plan of almost 100 pages, the section dedicated to this topic is a scant paragraph of 9 lines on a single sheet of paper.

順便提一句，在近 100 頁的計劃中，專門討論這一主題的部分只有一張紙上 9 行的寥寥一段。

And this bureaucracy brings us to another issue, one that has been of great concern to the Germans in recent years, the cost of energy.

這種官僚主義讓我們想到了另一個問題，一個近年來德國人非常關注的問題，即能源成本。

In theory, AFD is in favor of extending the life of existing nuclear power plants.

理論上，AFD 支持延長現有核電站的壽命。

But at the same time, they aren't very enthusiastic about nuclear power.

但與此同時，他們對核能並不熱衷。

For example, we can read how they constantly talk about exploring other alternatives.

例如，我們可以讀到他們是如何不斷談論探索其他替代方案的。

And also that gas and coal are fundamental pillars that will not be touched.

此外，天然氣和煤炭也是不可觸碰的基本支柱。

And let's remember that the proportion of coal in the energy mix has shot up precisely because nuclear energy has been eliminated.

讓我們記住，正是因為核能被淘汰，煤炭在能源結構中所佔的比例才急劇上升。

The most striking point is the ban on renewables, especially windmills.