A bullet grazed Trump's ear.

一顆子彈擦過特朗普的耳朵。

He was saved by a miracle.

他因奇蹟而得救。

A debate where they discussed whether immigrants ate cats and whether Kamala Harris' dad was a Marxist.

辯論中，他們討論了移民是否吃貓，卡馬拉-哈里斯的父親是否是馬克思主義者。

This election has been quite a show.

這次選舉真是一場好戲。

Of course, every show has an ending.

當然，每部劇都有一個結局。

The United States has spoken loud and clear.

美國已經發出了響亮而明確的聲音。

Donald Trump has won the election and will return to the Oval Office on January 20th.

唐納德-特朗普贏得了大選，並將於 1 月 20 日重返橢圓形辦公室。

Now, after a very long marathon and terribly intense campaign, what is known as the transition period begins.

現在，在經歷了漫長的馬拉松和異常激烈的競選之後，所謂的過渡期開始了。

A period that this time around will be anything but calm.

這一時期並不平靜。

Right now the Oval Office is a cockpit of an airplane flying through a huge storm, hostages in Gaza, Israel's wars, China's continual harassment of Taiwan and, of course, the war in Ukraine.

現在，橢圓形辦公室就像一個在巨大風暴中飛行的飛機駕駛艙，加沙的人質、以色列的戰爭、中國對臺灣的持續騷擾，當然還有烏克蘭戰爭。

There's a lot to be done.

有很多事情要做。

Both the Biden administration and the president-elect's team will have no respite in the coming months.

拜登政府和當選總統的團隊在未來幾個月都不會有喘息的機會。

Yet, of all the open conflicts, the situation in Ukraine is by far the most fragile and desperate.

然而，在所有公開衝突中，烏克蘭的局勢是迄今為止最脆弱、最令人絕望的。

The future of Ukraine and its President Zelensky lies ultimately in the hands of the United States.

烏克蘭及其總統澤連斯基的未來最終掌握在美國手中。

And now, with the election of Trump, uncertainty has blanketed the horizon.

現在，隨著特朗普的當選，不確定性籠罩了整個地平線。

This is the promise that Trump has repeated over and over again in recent months, to end the war in just 24 hours.

這是特朗普最近幾個月反覆強調的承諾，即在 24 小時內結束戰爭。

Of course, you don't have to be a visionary or even a geopolitical expert to know that this can probably only be achieved by paying a very high price.

當然，你不必是一個有遠見的人，甚至不必是一個地緣政治專家，就會知道這可能只有付出非常高的代價才能實現。

Giving Russia more than it asks for and putting the Ukrainian government between a rock and a hard place.

讓俄羅斯得寸進尺，讓烏克蘭政府左右為難。

A government that wants absolutely nothing to do with ceding territory to Russia, nor with reaching a false peace that would give Moscow the opportunity to recharge its batteries and prepare for a new attack.

這個政府絕對不想向俄羅斯割讓領土，也不想達成虛假的和平，讓莫斯科有機會重新充電，準備發動新的進攻。

Zelensky on Trump's peace plan.

澤倫斯基談特朗普的和平計劃。

No one can push Ukraine to give up territory for peace.

沒有人可以迫使烏克蘭為和平放棄領土。

If one person in the world, and this person is Donald Trump, can stop the war in 24 hours, the question is at what price and who will pay?

如果世界上有一個人--這個人就是唐納德-特朗普--能夠在 24 小時內阻止戰爭，問題是代價是什麼，誰來付出代價？

Zelensky said in an interview with BBC.

澤倫斯基在接受英國廣播公司採訪時說。

VisualPolitik community, with the victory of Donald Trump, the time has come to ask yourself a few questions.

VisualPolitik 社區，隨著唐納德-特朗普的勝利，是時候問自己幾個問題了。

How will the war evolve from now on?

從現在起，戰爭將如何演變？

In what ways could Trump bring the conflict to a close in 24 hours?

特朗普可以通過哪些方式在 24 小時內結束衝突？

Who is going to benefit most from the new US policy?

誰將從美國的新政策中獲益最多？

Well, we're going to see all that and more in this video.

在這段視頻中，我們將看到這一切，還有更多。

So fire up your engines and let's get started.

所以，發動引擎，讓我們開始吧。

At the end of September, as if he were a visionary, Volodymyr Zelensky went to Washington to knock on several doors.

9 月底，沃洛德梅爾-澤連斯基像個有遠見的人一樣，去華盛頓敲了幾扇門。

The Ukrainian president met with Joe Biden, congressional leaders, as well as Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

烏克蘭總統會見了喬-拜登、國會領導人以及卡馬拉-哈里斯和唐納德-特朗普。

Zelensky wanted to present everyone with his plan for victory, a strategy document explaining how Kyiv believes they could win the war and what they need to do to achieve it.

澤連斯基希望向所有人展示他的勝利計劃，這是一份戰略文件，說明基輔認為他們可以如何贏得戰爭，以及他們需要做些什麼來實現這一目標。

As you probably all know, Donald Trump has been very critical of both Ukraine and Zelensky himself.

大家可能都知道，唐納德-特朗普一直對烏克蘭和澤倫斯基本人持非常嚴厲的責備態度。

But at the time, the Ukrainian leader had enough instinct to meet with the candidates, even if it meant having to deal with Trump, a guy who frequently criticizes Ukraine, justifies Russia's actions and says glowing things about Putin.

但在當時，烏克蘭領導人有足夠的本能與候選人會面，即使這意味著必須與特朗普打交道，因為特朗普經常責備烏克蘭，為俄羅斯的行動辯解，並對普京讚譽有加。

But we already know all this.

但這些我們都已經知道了。

The question is, what on earth did the plan for victory say?

問題是，勝利計劃到底是怎麼說的？

Well, let's take a look.

讓我們來看看。

The first thing Zelensky envisages in his plan is that NATO should present his nation with an unconditional invitation for Ukraine to join the alliance as soon as the fighting is over.

澤連斯基在他的計劃中設想的第一件事是，北約應無條件地邀請烏克蘭在戰鬥結束後立即加入北約。

In other words, an absolutely binding commitment.

換句話說，這是一個絕對具有約束力的承諾。

Secondly, Ukraine is calling for increased delivery of military equipment, to armor the achieving any victory, and to enable Ukraine to advance in the occupied areas.

其次，烏克蘭呼籲增加軍事裝備的運送，為取得任何勝利提供裝備，並使烏克蘭能夠在被佔領地區取得進展。

Not only that, but Zelensky also proposes to turn Ukraine into a kind of arsenal for the West, the perfect base for non-nuclear deterrence against Russia.

不僅如此，澤連斯基還提議將烏克蘭變成西方的一種武器庫，成為對俄羅斯進行非核威懾的完美基地。

In exchange for aid, and this is the fourth point of the plan, Ukraine would give US and European companies a free hand to exploit a huge amount of Ukraine's critical resources, uranium, titanium, lithium, graphite, gas and many other such raw materials.

作為援助的交換條件（這是該計劃的第四點），烏克蘭將允許美國和歐洲公司自由開採烏克蘭的大量重要資源，如鈾、鈦、鋰、石墨、天然氣和其他許多原材料。

You give me weapons, I guarantee you preferential access to valuable resources.

你給我武器，我保證你優先獲得寶貴的資源。

And that's not all.

這還不是全部。

As the fifth and last point of this curious plan, Zelensky made the US leaders another offer.

作為這一奇特計劃的第五點，也是最後一點，澤倫斯基向美國領導人提出了另一個建議。

He must have told them something like this.

他一定是這樣告訴他們的。

Let's see, in Ukraine we've become a military power, we have a lot of equipment, an emerging and promising ammunition and military equipment industry, and tens and tens of thousands of troops with combat experience.

讓我們看看，在烏克蘭，我們已經成為軍事強國，我們擁有大量裝備、新興且前景廣闊的彈藥和軍事裝備工業，以及數以萬計具有作戰經驗的部隊。

We offer them to you.

我們為您提供。

Once the war is over, if you help us, Ukraine could take care of supporting the security of a lot of European countries and thus free up a lot of American troops so that you can focus on your number one priority, China.

一旦戰爭結束，如果你們幫助我們，烏克蘭就可以負責支持許多歐洲國家的安全，從而解放大量美軍，這樣你們就可以專注於你們的頭等大事--中國。

If the partners agree, we plan to replace certain military contingents of the US armed forces stationed in Europe with Ukrainian units after the war.

如果合作伙伴同意，我們計劃在戰後用烏克蘭部隊取代美國駐歐洲武裝部隊的某些軍事特遣隊。

In other words, Ukraine would use its troops to replace those of the United States in Europe and, at the same time, keep its army well oiled, just in case at any moment they have to join a war waged by the United States.

換句話說，烏克蘭將用自己的軍隊來取代美國在歐洲的軍隊，同時讓自己的軍隊保持良好狀態，以備隨時加入美國發動的戰爭。

Donald Trump was most likely indifferent to the first three points.

唐納德-特朗普很可能對前三點無動於衷。

Make America Great Again Republicans consider Age to Ukraine to be a big waste and certainly aren't exactly fans of organizations like NATO.

讓美國再次偉大》的共和黨人認為《烏克蘭時代》是一種巨大的浪費，當然也不是北約等組織的忠實擁護者。

However, what perhaps did capture the attention of the current president-elect were the last two points.

不過，最後兩點也許確實吸引了現任當選總統的注意力。

Ukraine is offering them free and preferential access to their most and also a lot of troops to support their missions around the world, starting by allowing them to withdraw a large part of the 100,000 troops that the United States has deployed in Europe.

烏克蘭向他們提供免費和優惠的最多准入，並提供大量部隊支持他們在世界各地的任務，首先允許他們撤出美國部署在歐洲的 10 萬部隊中的很大一部分。

Well, after presenting this plan to Donald Trump, Zelensky posed with the president-elect in front of the cameras and openly said in front of Trump that they would both like Ukraine to win this war.

在向唐納德-特朗普提出這一計劃後，澤連斯基與當選總統在攝影機前合影，並當著特朗普的面公開表示，他們都希望烏克蘭贏得這場戰爭。

And this may seem like a small thing to you, but the president-elect did not at all.

對你們來說，這可能是件小事，但當選總統卻一點也不小。

That was considered a breakthrough because, in the debate between presidential candidates, Trump avoided answering Kamala Harris about whether or not he would like Kiev to defeat Moscow.

這被認為是一個突破，因為在總統候選人之間的辯論中，特朗普避免回答卡馬拉-哈里斯關於他是否希望基輔擊敗莫斯科的問題。

Note the details.

注意細節。

Zelensky was smart enough to find a point of consensus.

澤倫斯基很聰明，他找到了一個共識點。

The war has to stop, but we can't let Putin win either.

戰爭必須停止，但我們也不能讓普京獲勝。

Maybe there's a middle ground.

也許有一箇中間地帶。

In truth, Zelensky didn't have much choice.

事實上，澤倫斯基並沒有太多選擇。

And something he did get in the following weeks, Trump came to refer to the Ukrainian president as an honorable leader who was unprotected by the Biden administration.

在接下來的幾周裡，特朗普確實得到了一些東西，他稱烏克蘭總統是一位受到拜登政府保護的可敬的領導人。

Even if he did go back to blaming it all on Zelensky again.

即使他又把一切歸咎於澤倫斯基。

But, you know, Trump's kind of like that.

但是，你知道，特朗普就是這樣的人。

But the point is that Zelensky has a plan, but Trump's team also claims to have one.

但問題是，澤倫斯基有一個計劃，但特朗普的團隊也聲稱有一個計劃。

In this regard, Trump's Vice President, J.D.

在這方面，特朗普的副總統 J.D.

Vance, speaks bluntly.

萬斯，直言不諱。

Vance says Trump's plan to end war in Ukraine could include creating demilitarized zone.

萬斯說，特朗普結束烏克蘭戰爭的計劃可能包括建立非軍事區。

In a podcast interview, J.D.

在一次播客採訪中，J.D.

Vance also said a peace settlement could involve barring Ukraine from joining the NATO alliance.

萬斯還表示，和平解決方案可能包括禁止烏克蘭加入北約聯盟。

So we have the Zelensky plan and the Trump plan.

是以，我們有了澤倫斯基計劃和特朗普計劃。

Both plans envisage the war ending, but to what extent are they compatible?

這兩個計劃都設想結束戰爭，但它們在多大程度上是一致的呢？

Ukraine didn't talk about negotiating with Moscow, at least until it had a position of strength, but Trump seems to want to shelve the conflict as soon as possible.

烏克蘭沒有談及與莫斯科談判的問題，至少在它有實力之前是這樣，但特朗普似乎想盡快擱置衝突。

So what can the US ask of Ukraine and Russia?

那麼，美國能要求烏克蘭和俄羅斯做些什麼呢？

Well, Trump's intentions regarding Ukraine are not yet known.

特朗普在烏克蘭問題上的意圖尚不得而知。

Zelensky made him an offer, and both the president-elect and his vice president are aiming for a negotiated exit.

澤倫斯基向他開出了條件，當選總統和他的副總統都希望通過談判退出。

The Wall Street Journal has leaked that Trump's plan might include freezing the war, establishing a demilitarized zone along the new border, and continuing to support Ukraine with weapons to deter future attacks.

華爾街日報》透露，特朗普的計劃可能包括凍結戰爭、沿新邊界建立非軍事區、繼續向烏克蘭提供武器支持以阻止未來的襲擊。

It would be a Korean-style solution.

這將是一個韓國式的解決方案。

But nothing is confirmed yet.

但目前尚未得到證實。

And that brings us directly to a very clear question.

這就直接引出了一個非常明確的問題。

But does that mean that they do or do not accept the Ukrainian offer?

但這是否意味著他們接受或不接受烏克蘭的提議？

What can we expect their position to be?

我們能期望他們的立場是什麼？

Well, to try to understand, or at least approximate, how Donald Trump will act towards Ukraine, we first need to know who will be responsible for implementing his foreign policy.

那麼，要想了解或至少大致瞭解唐納德-特朗普將如何對待烏克蘭，我們首先需要知道誰將負責執行他的外交政策。

Right now, we don't exactly know that either.

現在，我們也不太清楚。

But what we do know is the three names of those who are likely to be crucial in understanding the role that the United States will seek to play in Europe over the next four years.

但我們所知道的是，這三個人的名字很可能對了解美國未來四年在歐洲扮演的角色至關重要。

The first of these is Elbridge Colby, who is currently known as none other than the architect of Trumpist foreign policy.

第一位是埃爾布里奇-科爾比，他目前被稱為特朗普主義外交政策的設計師。

And of course, he's expected to be a part of the new government at a high level.

當然，他也有望成為新政府高層的一員。

Well, in 2021 he published the book entitled The Strategy of Denial, American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict.

2021 年，他出版了《否認的戰略：大國衝突時代的美國國防》一書。

In it, he describes how he believes the United States should act in the world.

他在書中描述了他認為美國應如何在世界上行事。

And take note, because he gives us many clues.

請注意，因為他給了我們很多線索。

There is thus no strategic need to add new states to the alliance.

是以，在戰略上沒有必要為聯盟增加新的國家。

Washington could reasonably support adding easily defensible states.

華盛頓可以合理地支持增加易守難攻的州。

But it should not agree to add Georgia or Ukraine to NATO, because both are highly exposed to Russian attack while offering no meaningful advantage.

但北約不應同意將格魯吉亞或烏克蘭加入北約，因為這兩個國家極易受到俄羅斯的攻擊，同時又沒有任何有意義的優勢。

It's the same thing J.D.

這是一樣的，J.D.

Vance has said on several occasions.

萬斯曾在多個場合說過。

Coincidence?

巧合？

Difficult to say.

很難說。

But Colby argues in his book that NATO far exceeds Russia's military power and therefore Putin cannot project his power onto any member state.

但科爾比在書中認為，北約的軍事實力遠遠超過俄羅斯，是以普京無法將自己的力量投射到任何一個成員國。

Therefore, according to him, it would be pointless to expand the alliance because it has already served its strategic purpose.

是以，他認為擴大聯盟毫無意義，因為聯盟已經達到了其戰略目的。

Ukraine is not useful because the deterrence on Moscow is already complete.

烏克蘭沒有用，因為對莫斯科的威懾已經完成。

The first point of Zelensky's plan is complicated.

澤倫斯基計劃的第一點很複雜。

Colby is very clear, Russia for the United States is nothing more than a distraction.

科爾比非常清楚，對美國來說，俄羅斯不過是一個分散注意力的地方。

According to this Trump strategist, it has to turn its attention to the three rival powers.

這位特朗普的戰略家認為，特朗普必須將注意力轉向三個競爭對手。

China, China and China.

中國、中國和中國。

Of course, if that were the position, Ukraine's idea of offering to become a key component of deterrence might not fit with the plans of the future White House.

當然，如果是這樣的話，烏克蘭提出成為威懾力量關鍵組成部分的想法可能與未來白宮的計劃不符。

But Colby is not the only guy who stands out.

但科爾比並不是唯一出類拔萃的人。

Among the senior officials surrounding Trump we also have Keith Kellogg, who previously worked as the president's national security advisor.

在特朗普身邊的高級官員中，還有曾擔任總統國家安全顧問的基思-凱洛格（Keith Kellogg）。

Well, when NATO met in Washington last July, Kellogg organized several meetings with leaders of member countries to begin building ties.

去年 7 月，北約在華盛頓開會時，凱洛格組織了幾次與成員國領導人的會議，開始建立聯繫。

Then the European and American press confirmed a common message for all of them.

隨後，歐美媒體證實了他們的一個共同資訊。

Trump will make each country of the alliance spend 2% of its GDP on defense.

特朗普將要求聯盟中的每個國家將其國內生產總值的 2% 用於國防。

Period.

期間。

Which is also no longer very far from the new post-war reality in Ukraine.

這與烏克蘭戰後的新現實也已相去不遠。

In the same vein, we find Rick Grenell, who already worked with Trump as US ambassador to Germany.

同樣，我們還發現了裡克-格林納爾，他在擔任美國駐德國大使期間曾與特朗普共事。

Well, it was precisely at this stage that Grenell was known for threatening Merkel that the US would withdraw troops from the country if Germany did not increase its defense spending.

嗯，正是在這個階段，格雷德爾因威脅默克爾說，如果德國不增加國防開支，美國將從該國撤軍而聞名。

In fact, several German parliamentarians went so far as to call for his expulsion.

事實上，一些德國議員甚至要求驅逐他。

I think we can say that, with Grenell, Berlin and Washington had their worst relations in a long time.

我想我們可以說，由於格雷奈爾，柏林和華盛頓的關係是長期以來最糟糕的。

Staunch Trump ally Richard Grenell to end tumultuous tenure as US ambassador to Germany.

特朗普的堅定盟友理查德-格林納爾將結束動盪的美國駐德國大使任期。

Wolfgang Kubicki, vice president of the German parliament, at one point said Grenell was acting as if the United States were still an occupying power here.

德國議會副議長沃爾夫岡-庫比奇（Wolfgang Kubicki）曾一度說，格林納爾的行為就好像美國仍然是這裡的佔領國。

Well, it's suspected that Grenell, along with Kellogg, would be in charge of managing relations between the White House and Europe, with one very clear objective.

據猜測，格雷德爾和凱洛格將負責管理白宮和歐洲之間的關係，他們的目標非常明確。

That the European NATO countries begin to empty their wallets, including paying for the deployment of American troops.

北約歐洲國家開始掏空錢包，包括為部署美軍買單。

And naturally, the question is, if the new administration is going to be so obsessed with money, is it really going to be willing to fund Kiev?

自然，問題是，如果新政府對金錢如此痴迷，它真的願意資助基輔嗎？

Well, there are doubts.

嗯，有疑問。

Within Trump's circles, it's said that any defense initiative in Europe is tantamount to wasting resources and money.

在特朗普的圈子裡，有人說在歐洲的任何防務舉措都等同於浪費資源和金錢。

That if Europeans want to protect themselves, they will have to pay for it themselves.

如果歐洲人想要保護自己，就必須自己掏腰包。

So, let me say it again, this makes points two and three of Zelensky's plan complicated.

所以，讓我再說一遍，這使得澤倫斯基計劃的第二和第三點變得複雜了。

But that's not all.

但這還不是全部。

Zelensky has offered the United States certain privileges, but he has competition.

澤倫斯基為美國提供了某些特權，但他也有競爭對手。

The president-elect has already said on occasion that he would like to lift economic sanctions on Russia with the idea of strengthening the use of the dollar.

當選總統已經在一些場合表示，他希望取消對俄羅斯的經濟制裁，並加強美元的使用。

Shall we translate?

要翻譯嗎？

There have been many economic interests that have been the U.S. has given Ukraine since the beginning of the war, much of it has been spent on huge arms contracts from within the United States.

自戰爭開始以來，美國給烏克蘭帶來了許多經濟利益，其中大部分都花在了美國國內的鉅額軍火合同上。

We're talking about billions spent by the Pentagon to replenish ammunition and equipment delivered to Ukraine.

我們說的是五角大樓花費數十億美元補充運往烏克蘭的彈藥和裝備。

We're talking about the money that the U.S. government puts up to pay the companies that then deliver their military production to Ukraine.

我們說的是美國政府拿出錢來支付給那些向烏克蘭提供軍事產品的公司。

And we're also talking about investments to increase the capacity of the U.S. military industry.

我們還在討論投資以提高美國軍事工業的能力。

This has some political benefits.

這在政治上有一定的好處。

First, assistance to Ukraine is increasing U.S. military production as the Pentagon renews its arsenals.

首先，隨著五角大樓更新其武器庫，對烏克蘭的援助正在增加美國的軍事生產。

This may eventually prove critical to maintaining a well-oiled and well-supplied military.

這可能最終會被證明對維持一支運轉良好、補給充足的軍隊至關重要。

In other words, if you want the U.S. military to maintain its advantage over Chinese forces, you need to have a robust military-industrial complex.

換句話說，如果想讓美國軍隊保持對中國軍隊的優勢，就必須擁有一個強大的軍工綜合體。

And that basically happens by placing orders.

而這基本上是通過下訂單實現的。

Therefore, much of the money that has gone to and also economic incentives.

是以，大部分資金都用於經濟激勵措施。

This in itself feeds point two and three of the Zelensky plan.

這本身就為澤倫斯基計劃的第二點和第三點提供了依據。

In this case, as you can see, it's a bit of a mixed blessing.

在這種情況下，正如你所看到的，它有點喜憂參半。

But, VisualPolitik community, Trump's plan may have another problem.

但是，VisualPolitik 社區認為，特朗普的計劃可能存在另一個問題。

THE LAST WINTER Trump will return to the White House on January 20th, in the middle of winter, just at the time when the fighting is generally less ambitious and more static.

最後的冬天》 特朗普將於 1 月 20 日重返白宮，時值隆冬，正是鬥志普遍減弱、靜止不動的時候。

A good time to try your luck with a ceasefire agreement.

現在是達成停火協議的好時機。

However, there's one problem.

不過，有一個問題。

Game theory.

博弈論

The president-elect already knows the Russian demands for stopping the war.

當選總統已經知道俄羅斯對停止戰爭的要求。

That Ukraine renounce NATO membership and withdraw its troops from the occupied regions.

烏克蘭放棄北約成員資格，從被佔領地區撤軍。

Along those lines, the U.S. could force Ukraine to accept those conditions with a very clear threat.

按照這種思路，美國可以用非常明確的威脅迫使烏克蘭接受這些條件。

Either you accept or I withdraw all support and Russia will come for you.

要麼你們接受，要麼我撤回所有支持，俄羅斯就會來找你們。

However, the Republicans couldn't afford to see Russian soldiers parading through Kiev or invading new areas of Ukraine.

然而，共和黨人不能看到俄羅斯阿兵哥在基輔遊行或入侵烏克蘭新的地區。

And for Zelensky and the Ukrainian government, that may be an advantage in negotiating their position.

而對於澤連斯基和烏克蘭政府來說，這可能是談判立場的一個優勢。

And so we're back to square one.

於是，我們又回到了原點。

That could cause the conflict to drag on and Trump would have to maintain military support for Ukraine at the risk of seeing Russian advances that would sink his reputation.

這可能會導致衝突拖延下去，特朗普將不得不冒著看到俄羅斯取得進展的風險維持對烏克蘭的軍事支持，這將使他的聲譽受損。

Of course, this is just one possibility, which perhaps the Ukrainians will study.

當然，這只是一種可能性，也許烏克蘭人會對此進行研究。