Name: 解讀特朗普的烏克蘭和平計劃 (Trump's Ukraine Peace Plan Explained)
Uploaded: 2024-11-14T16:42:59.000Z
Duration: 8 min 59 s

This video was brought to you by Ground News.

Earlier this week Donald Trump was declared winner of the US presidential election.

本週早些時候，唐納德-特朗普被宣佈贏得美國總統大選。

未來完成式

Trump has repeatedly vowed that one of his first tasks as president will be to end the war in Ukraine, insisting that the war would have never started had he won in 2020, and promising that he would end the war in quote 24 hours.

特朗普多次發誓，他作為總統的首要任務之一就是結束烏克蘭戰爭，堅稱如果他在 2020 年獲勝，這場戰爭就不會爆發，並承諾將在 24 小時內結束戰爭。

So in this video we're going to explain why Trump wants to end the war in Ukraine, his plan to do so, and how he would manage to coax Zelensky and Putin to the war.

是以，在這段視頻中，我們將解釋特朗普為什麼要結束烏克蘭戰爭，他的計劃是什麼，以及他將如何哄騙澤連斯基和普京參戰。

Before we start, if you haven't already, please consider subscribing and ringing the bell to stay in the loop and be notified when we release new videos.

在我們開始之前，如果您還沒有訂閱，請考慮訂閱並按鈴，以便在我們發佈新視頻時及時收到通知。

So before we get into his peace plan, let's quickly explain why Trump is so keen to end the war.

是以，在瞭解他的和平計劃之前，讓我們先快速解釋一下特朗普為何如此熱衷於結束戰爭。

Now this is in part because Trump is a self-declared isolationist, and ending the war, or winding down support for Ukraine, plays well to his base, because as of December last year 48% of Republicans believed that the US was providing too much support to Ukraine, and this figure has almost definitely grown since then.

這在一定程度上是因為特朗普自詡為孤立主義者，結束戰爭或減少對烏克蘭的支持對他的基礎選民很有利，因為截至去年 12 月，48% 的共和黨人認為美國對烏克蘭的支持過多，而這一數字自那時以來幾乎肯定有所增長。

But Trump, or at least his allies, also have a deeper geostrategic motivation.

但是，特朗普，或者至少是他的盟友，還有更深層次的地緣戰略動機。

A research paper written for the America First Policy Institute by two of Trump's former national security chiefs gives us some idea of how Trump and co might be thinking about it.

特朗普的兩位前國家安全部長為 "美國優先政策研究所"（America First Policy Institute）撰寫了一份研究報告，讓我們瞭解了特朗普和他的團隊可能會如何考慮這個問題。

According to the paper, there are essentially three reasons they want to end the war.

根據這份文件，他們希望結束戰爭的原因主要有三個。

Secondly, a prolonged conflict risks strengthening the alliance between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, as indicated by NATO's recent report of over 10,000 North Korean troops being stationed in Russia following a defence deal.

其次，長期衝突有可能加強俄羅斯、中國、伊朗和北韓之間的聯盟，北約最近的報告顯示，在達成防務協議後，超過 10,000 名北韓阿兵哥駐紮在俄羅斯。

And thirdly, the US just has low ammunition stockpiles, and needs to conserve resources for a potential conflict with China.

第三，美國只是彈藥儲備不足，需要節約資源以應對與中國的潛在衝突。

This is something that former Trump advisor Elbridge Colby often talks about, as a result of sending military aid to support both Israel and Ukraine, America's ammunition and weapons stockpiles are running alarmingly low, and the Rand Corporation recently estimated that in the event of a war over Taiwan, the US could exhaust its ammunition stockpiles within just three to four weeks.

這也是特朗普前顧問埃爾布里奇-科爾比（Elbridge Colby）經常談到的，由於向以色列和烏克蘭提供軍事援助，美國的彈藥和武器庫存低得驚人，蘭德公司（Rand Corporation）最近估計，如果發生臺灣戰爭，美國可能會在短短三到四周內耗盡彈藥庫存。

Not only will replenishing Washington's ammunition infantry take years, but the supply chain has become overly dependent on China and Russia for its key components, putting the US base in a precarious position.

補充華盛頓的彈藥步兵不僅需要數年時間，而且其關鍵部件的供應鏈已過度依賴中國和俄羅斯，這使美國基地岌岌可危。

Anyway, that's why Trump wants to end the war.

總之，這就是特朗普想要結束戰爭的原因。

Now let's take a look at how he actually wants to do it.

現在讓我們看看他究竟想怎麼做。

So far, Trump has declined to give too many specific details about his plan, but fortunately for us, his advisors and allies haven't been so tight-lipped.

迄今為止，特朗普一直拒絕透露有關其計劃的太多具體細節，但幸運的是，他的顧問和盟友並沒有如此守口如瓶。

In an interview with the Sean Ryan Show in September, Trump's Vice President J.D.

在今年 9 月接受肖恩-瑞安秀採訪時，特朗普的副總統 J.D.

Vance laid out Trump's plans pretty clearly.

萬斯非常清楚地闡述了特朗普的計劃。

Broadly speaking, there were two elements to Vance's plan in Ukraine.

概括地說，萬斯在烏克蘭的計劃有兩個要素。

First, a complete ceasefire along the current front line, which stretches about 1,300 kilometres.

首先，在目前綿延約 1 300 公里的前線實現全面停火。

According to Vance, the first bit, a freeze along the current front lines, would pave the way for the creation of a demilitarised zone, presumably akin to the one between North and South Korea, which is about four kilometres wide and heavily fortified.

萬斯認為，第一點，即沿目前前線的凍結，將為建立非軍事區鋪平道路。

This implies Ukraine giving up about a fifth of its land, which is currently controlled by Russia.

這意味著烏克蘭要放棄目前由俄羅斯控制的約五分之一的土地。

This includes Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, about 80% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, and about 70% of the Southern Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblasts.

其中包括俄羅斯於 2014 年吞併的克里米亞、頓涅茨克州和盧甘斯克州約 80% 的地區，以及南扎波羅熱州和赫爾松州約 70% 的地區。

This actually brings us to the second point of Trump's possible peace plan, as outlined by Vance, Ukraine's neutrality.

這實際上引出了萬斯所概述的特朗普可能的和平計劃的第二點，即烏克蘭的中立性。

In other words, Trump, Vance, and Trump ally Elon Musk, who suggested something similar in late 2022, think that Ukraine shouldn't join NATO, both to avoid dragging the West into World War 3, and to avoid upsetting Putin, who's long been opposed to Ukraine joining NATO, and leaving Russia's so-called sphere of influence.

換句話說，特朗普、萬斯和特朗普的盟友埃隆-馬斯克（他曾在 2022 年末提出過類似建議）都認為烏克蘭不應該加入北約，一是為了避免將西方拖入第三次世界大戰，二是為了避免惹惱普京，因為普京長期以來一直反對烏克蘭加入北約，離開俄羅斯所謂的勢力範圍。

Speaking on the All In podcast this June, Trump said that Biden's hostile attitude towards Russia, and America's decision to dangle NATO membership in front of Ukraine, was quote, a mistake, and really why the war started.

今年 6 月，特朗普在 "All In "播客節目中說，拜登對俄羅斯的敵視態度，以及美國在烏克蘭面前慫恿其加入北約的決定是一個錯誤，也是戰爭爆發的真正原因。

According to a report by the Wall Ukraine's accession to NATO entirely, but would suggest delaying it by at least 20 years.

根據《牆報》的報道，烏克蘭將完全加入北約，但建議至少延後 20 年。

Now this peace plan will likely include some kind of enforcement mechanisms, like deploying peacekeeping troops on the ground.

現在，這項和平計劃很可能包括某種執行機制，比如在當地部署維和部隊。

However, Trump has long argued that Europe doesn't pull its weight in defence spending, which means that Europe would most likely have to pick up the bill, or use its troops.

然而，特朗普長期以來一直認為，歐洲在國防開支方面並不盡如人意，這意味著歐洲很可能不得不承擔這筆賬單，或者動用自己的軍隊。

So that's the plan, but how would Trump actually get Ukraine and Russia to agree to it, given that neither side is currently keen on negotiating?

這就是特朗普的計劃，但鑑於烏克蘭和俄羅斯目前都不熱衷於談判，特朗普如何才能真正讓烏克蘭和俄羅斯同意呢？

Well, Trump would probably force Ukraine to the negotiating table, by threatening to end or significantly reduce its military aid.

特朗普可能會威脅終止或大幅削減對烏克蘭的軍事援助，從而迫使烏克蘭走上談判桌。

For context, since the start of the war, the US has spent more than $70 billion in military aid, and unless Europe really stepped up, it's hard to see Ukraine's war effort continuing without American support.

從背景來看，自戰爭開始以來，美國已經花費了 700 多億美元用於軍事援助，除非歐洲真正站出來，否則很難想象烏克蘭的戰爭會在沒有美國支持的情況下繼續下去。

However, it's less clear how he convinced Russia to agree to it.

不過，他是如何說服俄羅斯同意的就不太清楚了。

While you might assume that Russia would be pretty happy with the plan, after all, it gives them 20% of Ukraine, and guarantees Ukrainian neutrality, it still falls short of their maximalist war aims, which include the total annexation of the four oblasts claimed by Russia in 2022, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia.

雖然您可能會認為俄羅斯會對該計劃相當滿意，畢竟它給了俄羅斯 20% 的烏克蘭領土，並保證了烏克蘭的中立，但該計劃仍未達到其最大的戰爭目標，其中包括完全吞併俄羅斯在 2022 年聲稱擁有的四個州，即盧甘斯克、頓涅茨克、赫爾松和扎波羅熱。

Russian forces currently don't control all of Donetsk, Kherson, or Zaporizhia, so a freeze along the current front lines would fall short of Putin's stated aims, especially if there's a sizeable buffer zone.

俄軍目前並沒有控制頓涅茨克、赫爾松或扎波羅熱的全部地區，是以沿目前前線實施的凍結行動將無法實現普京宣稱的目標，尤其是在有一個相當大的緩衝區的情況下。

If Putin does refuse Trump's peace plan, it'll be interesting how Trump responds.

如果普京真的拒絕了特朗普的和平計劃，特朗普如何迴應將很有趣。

While many Europeans and Ukrainian leaders worry that he'll just make more concessions to Putin, it's worth noting that in his first term, despite some occasionally friendly rhetoric, Trump wasn't afraid to put Putin in his place, and was actually the first US president to authorise sending lethal military aid to Ukraine.

雖然許多歐洲人和烏克蘭領導人擔心他只會對普京做出更多讓步，但值得注意的是，在他的第一個任期內，儘管偶爾會有一些友好的言論，但特朗普並不害怕將普京置於死地，實際上他是第一位授權向烏克蘭提供致命軍事援助的美國總統。

Trump also imposed sanctions against Russian firms building the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in Germany, ordered airstrikes on the Russian mercenary groups in Syria, and withdrew from multiple nuclear treaties.

特朗普還對在德國建設北溪 2 號天然氣管道的俄羅斯公司實施制裁，下令空襲敘利亞境內的俄羅斯僱傭軍組織，並退出了多個核條約。

Trump also said in an interview with Fox News last year that he'd actually step up support for Ukraine in order to force Russia to acquiesce, saying quote, I'd tell Putin, if you don't make a deal, we're going to give them a lot more than they ever got.

特朗普去年在接受福克斯新聞採訪時還表示，為了迫使俄羅斯默許，他實際上會加強對烏克蘭的支持，他說："我會告訴普京，如果你們不達成協議，我們會給他們比以前多得多的東西。

All in all, neither Ukraine or Russia would be immediately keen on the deal, and it's an open question as to whether Trump would be able to leverage them into it, but he's certainly pretty intent on trying to do so.

總之，烏克蘭和俄羅斯都不會立即熱衷於這項交易，特朗普能否利用他們的影響力達成交易還是個未知數，但他肯定很想這麼做。

This is also something that's been discussed in Europe for a long time too.

Hungary's Viktor Orban actually warned before the election that were Trump to win, the EU would need to fundamentally change their approach to Russia, with 48 different news outlets reporting on this story alone. 36% of that reporting came from the left, while 43% came from the right.

匈牙利的維克托-歐爾班（Viktor Orban）實際上在大選前就警告說，如果特朗普獲勝，歐盟將需要從根本上改變對俄羅斯的態度。其中36%的報道來自左翼，43%來自右翼。

And if you compare the headlines, you start to see some interesting framing emerge.

如果比較一下這些標題，你就會發現一些有趣的框架出現了。

On the left, you have the Kyiv Independent saying that if Trump wins the US presidential election, Europe cannot remain pro-war.

在左翼，《基輔獨立報》說，如果特朗普贏得美國總統大選，歐洲就不能繼續支持戰爭。

While on the right, you have Origo simply saying, Viktor Orban, come on Donald Trump.

而在右翼，奧裡戈只是說，維克托-歐爾班，來吧，唐納德-特朗普。

These stories are similar, the framing, but that's very different.

這些故事的框架很相似，但卻大相徑庭。

Now, all of this analysis is possible thanks to our sponsor, Ground News, a website and app developed by a former NASA engineer on a mission to give readers an easy, data-driven, objective way to read the news.

現在，所有這些分析都要歸功於我們的贊助商--地面新聞（Ground News），這是一個由前美國國家航空航天局（NASA）工程師開發的網站和應用程序，旨在為讀者提供一種簡單、數據驅動、客觀的新聞閱讀方式。

They pull in stories from all over the world, and organise them by story, with each story coming with a quick visual breakdown of the political bias, factuality, and ownership of the sources reporting, all backed by ratings from three independent news monitoring organisations.

他們從世界各地收集報道，並按報道內容進行分類，每篇報道都有一個快速的可視化分類，包括報道來源的政治偏見、事實真相和所有權，所有這些都有三個獨立新聞監測機構的評級作為支持。

One of my favourite features is their blind spot which shows you stories underreported by one side of the political spectrum or the other.

我最喜歡的功能之一是他們的 "盲點 "功能，它可以顯示被政治派別一方或另一方報道不足的故事。

For example, if you lean right, you probably missed this story where Russia denied quote baseless claims about their election interference in the US.

例如，如果你傾向於右派，你可能會錯過俄羅斯否認引用毫無根據的說法干涉美國大選的報道。

Ground News is such an incredibly useful platform that captures information you just can't get anywhere else.

Ground News 是一個非常有用的平臺，它能捕捉到其他地方無法獲取的資訊。

It's especially useful when you're looking at news stories from around the world, as I'm sure our very global audience often does.

當您瀏覽世界各地的新聞報道時，它尤其有用，我相信我們的全球閱聽人也經常這樣做。

If you're not familiar with the media market, it's hard to know who you should trust, so Ground's guidance can prove invaluable whether you're a European trying to unpack the US election, or an American trying to understand the Bulgarian one.

如果你不熟悉媒體市場，就很難知道應該相信誰，是以，無論你是試圖解讀美國大選的歐洲人，還是試圖瞭解保加利亞大選的美國人，Ground 的指導都會證明是無價之寶。

好吧，後者聽起來確實不太可能。

Best of all, Ground are currently offering our viewers a 50% discount on their Vantage plan, which includes unlimited access to their election pages, blind spot feed, and many other features that empower you as a news consumer.

最重要的是，Ground 目前正在為我們的觀眾提供 Vantage 計劃的半價優惠，其中包括無限制訪問其選舉頁面、盲點饋送和許多其他功能，以增強您作為新聞消費者的能力。

 This is their biggest discount yet, so go to ground.news forward slash tldr, scan the QR code on screen, or use the link in the video's description to subscribe today.

這是他們目前最大的折扣，請訪問 ground.news forward slash tldr，掃描螢幕上的二維碼，或使用視頻描述中的鏈接立即訂閱。