Name: 中國的經濟問題 | 鉅額債務 (China's Economic Problem | Massive Debt)
Uploaded: 2024-11-11T03:37:20.000Z
Duration: 10 min 33 s

情態副詞

Many economists and analysts have recently been raising alarm about China's rising debt levels.

最近，許多經濟學家和分析師都對中國不斷上升的債務水準提出了警告。

According to the International Monetary Fund Global Debt Monitor, as of 2022,

根據國際貨幣基金組織《全球債務監測》，截至 2022 年、

China's total debt as a percentage of its GDP has risen to a massive 272%.

中國的債務總額佔 GDP 的比例已大幅上升至 272%。

That is an increase from a mere small debt of just 71.3% back in the 1980s.

與 20 世紀 80 年代僅為 71.3%的小額債務相比，這一比例有所上升。

As you can see in the graph here, China's total debt has been rising every decade and every year.

如圖所示，中國的債務總額每十年、每年都在增加。

This was driven by a combination of aggressive economic policies, rapid urbanisation and heavy investment in infrastructure, all of which required significant borrowing.

這得益於激進的經濟政策、快速的城市化和對基礎設施的大量投資，所有這些都需要大量的借貸。

This is why when you see videos, footage, photos of China, you see an immense difference from where it was 30, 20 or even 10 years ago.

這就是為什麼當你看到中國的視頻、鏡頭和照片時，你會發現它與 30 年前、20 年前甚至 10 年前有著天壤之別。

The country has continuously changed and continuously invests in future projects.

國家在不斷變化，並不斷投資於未來的項目。

Furthermore, if we compare this data for other countries, like Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States, the Euro area and other regions, we see this.

此外，如果我們比較一下其他國家，如日本、英國、美國、歐元區和其他地區的數據，就會發現這種情況。

China's total debt as a percentage of GDP is truly high.

中國的債務總額佔 GDP 的比例確實很高。

Having a high debt, even compared to countries like the US and UK, is quite extraordinary because China is still considered an emerging economy, while countries like the US, UK and Japan are advanced, mature economies with extensive financial systems and established debt management mechanisms.

即使與美國和英國等國家相比，中國的高債務也是非常特殊的，因為中國仍被視為新興經濟體，而美國、英國和日本等國家則是先進的成熟經濟體，擁有廣泛的金融體系和成熟的債務管理機制。

The fact that China's debt levels have reached comparable or even higher levels than these countries raises concerns about sustainability and risk, especially considering that China's economic growth, while still strong, has been gradually slowing down.

中國的債務水準已達到與這些國家相當甚至更高的水準，這引發了人們對可持續性和風險的擔憂，特別是考慮到中國的經濟增長雖然依然強勁，但已逐漸放緩。

So, is China's debt going to cause a massive headache for the government?

那麼，中國的債務是否會讓政府大傷腦筋？

Will it actually cause an economic slowdown or worse, a deep stagnation like that of Japan?

這是否會導致經濟放緩，甚至像日本那樣陷入深度停滯？

Well, the answer is obviously difficult to say.

For one, the economic structure of China and Japan are both different.

首先，中日兩國的經濟結構不同。

Japan's economy has long been developed, with a mature industrial base, slower population growth and an ageing demographic.

長期以來，日本經濟發達，工業基礎成熟，人口增長放緩，人口老齡化嚴重。

This made it vulnerable to stagnation when growth slowed in the 1990s.

這使其在 20 世紀 90 年代增長放緩時容易陷入停滯。

China, however, is still transitioning from a developing to a developed economy, and its demographics, though ageing, are not as advanced in this shift as Japan's were during their period of economic struggle.

然而，中國仍在從發展中經濟體向發達經濟體過渡，其人口結構雖已老齡化，但在這一轉變過程中並不像日本在經濟困難時期那樣先進。

Additionally, China's financial system operates under a unique set of centralised controls that allow the government more influence over its banking sector and credit policies, which could enable China to manage its debt in ways other countries may not.

此外，中國的金融體系在一套獨特的中央控制下運行，使政府對銀行業和信貸政策有更大的影響力，這可能使中國能夠以其他國家可能無法做到的方式管理其債務。

But before we understand whether this is manageable or not, let's first understand what a country's total debt is.

但在瞭解這是否可控之前，讓我們先來了解一下什麼是國家的債務總額。

The total debt from the IMF is divided into two categories – public and private debt.

國際貨幣基金組織的債務總額分為兩類--公共債務和私人債務。

Public debt, as defined by the IMF, is the gross debt owed by the general and or central government.

根據國際貨幣基金組織的定義，公債是指政府或中央政府所欠的債務總額。

This includes obligations that the government has taken on, usually through bonds or loans, to finance spending on infrastructure, social programmes or economic stimulus efforts.

這包括政府承擔的義務，通常是通過債券或貸款，為基礎設施、社會計劃或經濟刺激措施的支出提供資金。

Private debt, on the other hand, is the debt owed by non-government entities, primarily businesses and households.

私人債務則是指非政府實體（主要是企業和家庭）所欠的債務。

In China, private debt is a substantial portion of the total debt, largely driven by corporations, particularly state-owned enterprises, and an expanding household debt sector.

在中國，私人債務佔債務總額的很大一部分，主要由企業（尤其是國有企業）和不斷擴大的家庭債務部門所驅動。

Private debt includes all liabilities incurred by private businesses to fund their operations, expansions or acquisitions, as well as personal borrowing by individuals for mortgages, credit cards and other consumer loans.

私人債務包括私營企業為其營運、擴張或收購提供資金而產生的所有債務，以及個人為抵押貸款、信用卡和其他消費貸款而產生的個人借款。

Now, the public debt of China isn't a lot.

現在，中國的公共債務並不多。

You know that data set that many people look at – Japan's massive public debt, which reaches more than 260%?

你知道很多人都會關注的一組數據--日本高達 260% 以上的鉅額公共債務？

This data has always been blamed for Japan's slowing economy, and is indeed a key reason why the country is having a hard time.

這一數據一直是日本經濟放緩的罪魁禍首，也確實是日本經濟陷入困境的重要原因。

The US, on the other hand, has also been battling with rising public debt.

另一方面，美國也一直在與不斷上升的公共債務作鬥爭。

Its government has been in a fiscal deficit for more than two decades.

二十多年來，該國政府一直處於財政赤字狀態。

They have been spending more than what they make.

The COVID-19 pandemic has also incurred rapid increase in government spending, which caused the debt to balloon.

COVID-19 大流行病還導致政府開支迅速增加，造成債務膨脹。

This is why the US's public debt to GDP now reached over 121% for 2022.

這就是為什麼美國的公共債務與國內生產總值的比率在 2022 年達到了 121% 以上。

China, on the other hand, isn't really in a bad position as compared to these major economies.

另一方面，與這些主要經濟體相比，中國的處境其實並不差。

As a matter of fact, China's public debt to GDP is actually lower than some emerging economies.

事實上，中國的公共債務佔國內生產總值的比例實際上低於一些新興經濟體。

India's economy is nowhere near that of China.

And, as a developing nation, its debt must be lower, right?

而且，作為一個開發中國家，它的債務肯定更低，不是嗎？

Well, India's debt to GDP is actually higher than that of China.

實際上，印度的債務與國內生產總值之比高於中國。

Even other developing countries across Southeast Asia nearly have a similar debt to GDP levels to that of China.

即使是東南亞的其他開發中國家，其債務與國內生產總值的比例也幾乎與中國相似。

Take Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines.

以泰國、馬來西亞和菲律賓為例。

These three have around 60% debt to GDP levels, with Malaysia the highest, and the Philippines the lowest.

這三個國家的債務佔國內生產總值的比例約為 60%，其中馬來西亞最高，菲律賓最低。

Yet, China maintains a public debt to GDP ratio that is relatively modest, especially when considering its vast economy and its role as the world's second-largest economic power.

然而，中國的公共債務佔國內生產總值的比例相對較低，尤其是考慮到其龐大的經濟規模和世界第二大經濟強國的地位。

Private debt, as we just mentioned, is the debt owned by the private sector.

正如我們剛才提到的，私人債務是指私營部門擁有的債務。

These can be companies like Alibaba, Tencent, or state-owned enterprises like PetroChina and China Mobile.

這些企業可以是阿里巴巴、騰訊這樣的公司，也可以是中石油和中國移動這樣的國有企業。

Here's the graph of China's private debt.

The rate of increase since 2010 is also quite overwhelming.

2010 年以來的增長速度也相當驚人。

Further, it is more than double than that of the government debt, which should imply that China's private debt is too much.

此外，它比政府債務高出一倍多，這應該意味著中國的私人債務過多。

Well, one can say that it is a lot, but it's quite comparable to some Asian nations like Thailand, South Korea, and Japan.

嗯，可以說是很多，但與泰國、韓國和日本等一些亞洲國家相當。

Even compared to some European nations, China's private debt isn't that high.

即使與一些歐洲國家相比，中國的私人債務也不算高。

Just take a look at Sweden's private debt.

看看瑞典的私人債務就知道了。

France's private debt is also up there at over 228% of their GDP.

法國的私人債務也高達其國內生產總值的 228% 以上。

Now, determining whether a country's debt is a problem is quite difficult to say.

現在，要確定一個國家的債務是否是一個問題是相當困難的。

If used properly, it can drive economic growth for the better.

如果使用得當，它可以更好地推動經濟增長。

But if used recklessly, it can do the exact opposite.

但如果胡亂使用，則可能適得其反。

So that is what we must determine for China.

是以，這就是我們必須為中國做出的決定。

Well, let's understand the big factors that led to China's debt accumulation.

那麼，讓我們來了解一下導致中國債務積累的主要因素。

The first reason is because of urbanisation.

As China's economy transitioned from an agrarian society to an industrial powerhouse, this necessitated big investments in infrastructure.

隨著中國經濟從農業社會轉型為工業強國，有必要對基礎設施進行大量投資。

To finance big infrastructure plans, however, required a lot of money.

然而，為大型基礎設施計劃提供資金需要大量資金。

The government then had to borrow money through substantial borrowings to make these happen.

為了實現這些目標，政府不得不大量舉債。

Another reason for the accumulation was due to local government financing vehicles – LGFVs.

積累的另一個原因是地方政府融資工具（LGFV）。

To circumvent borrowing restrictions, local governments established LGFVs to fund infrastructure projects.

為規避借貸限制，地方政府設立了地方政府融資機制，為基礎設施項目提供資金。

These entities allowed for off-balance-sheet borrowing, meaning that debt was not always visible on government financial statements.

這些實體允許在資產負債表外借款，這意味著債務在政府財務報表上並不總是顯而易見的。

Unfortunately, some estimates suggest that by the end of 2024, hidden local government debt could reach nearly 55% of GDP, potentially escalating to almost 150% by 2029.

不幸的是，據估計，到 2024 年底，地方政府的隱性債務可能達到 GDP 的近 55%，到 2029 年可能上升到近 150%。

Finally, a major cause for the rise is no other than the real estate sector.

最後，房地產業也是房價上漲的一個重要原因。

The property market has been a significant driver of debt, with developers and local governments borrowing extensively to finance construction projects.

房地產市場一直是債務的重要推動力，開發商和地方政府大量舉債為建設項目融資。

This is one of the big problems that China has had as of late.

這也是中國近來遇到的一個大問題。

They had too many real estate projects, with no one occupying them, a lot of which were borrowed extensively.

他們有太多的房地產項目，卻無人問津，其中很多都是大肆借貸。

With no expected investment return, China then had to face its own real estate crisis.

在沒有預期投資回報的情況下，中國不得不面對自己的房地產危機。

Just take a look at the stock performance of many Chinese real estate companies.

看看中國許多房地產公司的股票表現就知道了。

It's not a pretty picture to see, especially knowing that China's economy depends a lot on its real estate sector.

這並不是一幅美麗的圖景，尤其是中國經濟在很大程度上依賴於房地產行業。

So, knowing these, how bad is China's debt?

那麼，瞭解了這些情況，中國的債務到底有多糟？

Well, for one, China's corporate debt may be a big problem.

首先，中國的企業債務可能是個大問題。

According to S&P Global, China's corporate debt reached approximately $29 trillion by early 2022, nearly the equivalent of the entire US government debt.

根據標普全球的數據，到 2022 年初，中國的企業債務將達到約 29 萬億美元，幾乎相當於美國政府的全部債務。

Another problem is that debt issues stem from deep-seated structural and policy choices that prioritise rapid growth and development over financial sustainability.

另一個問題是，債務問題源於根深蒂固的結構和政策選擇，這些選擇將快速增長和發展置於財政可持續性之上。

Much of the country's debt is held by state-owned enterprises, which have borrowed extensively to fund projects in infrastructure, energy and heavy industry.

該國大部分債務由國有企業持有，這些企業大量舉債，為基礎設施、能源和重工業項目提供資金。

These sectors are integral to China's economic strategy, but they do not always generate returns that match the scale of investment.

這些部門是中國經濟戰略不可或缺的一部分，但它們並不總能帶來與投資規模相匹配的回報。

Of course, the Chinese government is not oblivious to the risks posed by these debts.

當然，中國政府並非不知道這些債務所帶來的風險。

That is why, in recent years, they have been trying to change these.

是以，近年來，他們一直在努力改變這些情況。

But there's still a long way to go before they actually succeed.

但要真正取得成功，還有很長的路要走。

But anyway, do let us know what you think.

無論如何，請告訴我們您的想法。