Voters absolutely are using the economy as a metric by which to evaluate presidents.

選民絕對會把經濟作為評價總統的標準。

It's something that they encounter in their day-to-day lives, you know, what their bank accounts look like, what their grocery bills look like.

這是他們在日常生活中遇到的事情，你知道，他們的銀行賬戶是什麼樣的，他們的雜貨賬單是什麼樣的。

And so it's very natural to start to wonder, well, who's responsible for this?

是以，人們很自然地開始想，這是誰造成的？

And so people can eventually get this sort of picture in their minds of a president as a kind of economic wizard behind a curtain that's pulling levers.

是以，人們最終會在腦海中浮現出這樣一幅畫面：總統是一位幕後拉桿的經濟巫師。

And we're just all on the receiving end of this, when the reality is something like presidents are basically a roulette ball spinning around a wheel, desperately hoping that their presidency lands on black.

我們都在接受這種說法，而現實情況是，總統基本上就像一個輪盤賭球，在輪盤上旋轉，拼命希望自己的總統任期落在黑色上。

So how much influence do U.S. presidents actually have on the economy?

那麼，美國總統對經濟的影響力究竟有多大？

There has been a tendency on the part of our society led by politicians to exaggerate the amount of power that the president wields.

在政客的主導下，我們的社會有一種誇大總統權力的傾向。

And that's encouraged by participants in these campaigns.

這也是這些活動的參與者所鼓勵的。

You've got a problem.

你有麻煩了

I'm going to solve it.

我要去解決它。

Policymakers have two main tools to influence the economy, monetary and fiscal policy.

政策制定者有兩種影響經濟的主要工具，即貨幣政策和財政政策。

Monetary policy is one important tool that the government has to try to prevent the economy from overheating too much or from cooling off too much to find that nice, perfect, sweet spot of low unemployment and low inflation.

貨幣政策是政府的一個重要工具，它可以防止經濟過熱或過冷，從而找到低失業率和低通脹的完美平衡點。

What it really has to do with kind of interest rates, the cost of borrowing money.

這其實與利率和借貸成本有關。

If interest rates go up, for example, people will be more willing to save, less willing to make new purchases, less willing to take out big loans.

例如，如果利率上升，人們就會更願意儲蓄，更不願意購買新東西，更不願意大筆貸款。

And this should help to kind of cool off the economy if inflation is running high.

如果通脹率居高不下，這將有助於為經濟降溫。

But by design, power over monetary policies fall under the authority of the Federal Reserve rather than the president of the United States.

但按照設計，貨幣政策的權力屬於美聯儲而非美國總統。

Monetary policy is the sole domain of our central bank.

貨幣政策是我國中央銀行的專屬領域。

And we do have a politically independent Federal Reserve, which the data and history show is more effective when those who are in office have no real control over what the central bank does.

我們確實有一個政治上獨立的美聯儲，而數據和歷史表明，當執政者無法真正控制中央銀行的行為時，美聯儲就會更加有效。

It's almost inconceivable that the president would ever want higher interest rates.

幾乎無法想象總統會希望提高利率。

Right.

對

Those higher interest rates are going to influence credit card rates, the amount of money that the federal government spends on its debt.

這些較高的利率將影響信用卡利率和聯邦政府的債務支出。

It will influence the rates and amount of money that students have to pay if they're taking out loans for their education.

這將影響學生的教育貸款利率和金額。

If people are purchasing homes, mortgage rates, people want those rates lower, not higher.

如果人們要買房，抵押貸款利率，人們希望利率更低，而不是更高。

The Federal Reserve is empowered with this ability to make the decision that even though no one wants interest rates to be higher, sometimes that is the best policy to prevent these other problems.

美聯儲有能力做出這樣的決定：儘管沒有人希望利率升高，但有時這是防止其他問題的最佳政策。

However, presidents can also get a chance to appoint the leaders of agencies like the Federal Reserve or the Federal Trade Commission, which still needs confirmation by the Senate.

不過，總統也有機會任命美聯儲或聯邦貿易委員會等機構的領導人，但這仍需要參議院的確認。

These leaders go on to make important decisions that greatly impact the economy.

這些領導人隨後會做出對經濟產生重大影響的重要決策。

We can see a little bit of their influence happening for sure.

可以肯定的是，我們可以看到一點他們的影響。

Ideologically, we'd expect these people to be similar to the president, which is why the president picked them in the first place.

從意識形態上講，我們希望這些人與總統相似，這也是總統當初挑選他們的原因。

And so we can expect the president's ideology to matter there.

是以，我們可以預期總統的意識形態在那裡會很重要。

Presidents could have more influence over fiscal policies, which is all about how the U.S. government makes and spends its money.

總統可以對財政政策施加更大的影響，財政政策涉及美國政府如何賺錢和花錢。

But ultimately, the president can't achieve much alone without the approval of Congress.

但歸根結底，沒有國會的準許，總統一個人是做不了什麼的。

A president can talk until the proverbial cows come home about what they're going to do.

總統可以就他們要做的事說到天花亂墜。

But it requires Congress to open the gate for those cows to allow the federal spending to occur.

但這需要國會為這些奶牛打開大門，允許聯邦支出。

So a president does not have the power to propose a program to attach federal spending to it and then enact that spending because constitutionally, the Congress must approve the spending.

是以，總統無權提出一項計劃，並將聯邦支出附於其上，然後頒佈該支出，因為根據憲法，支出必須經國會準許。

And the president then has to approve what Congress essentially checks off.

然後，總統必須準許國會基本上要核對的內容。

The president's role is even more minimized when the president and Congress are at odds.

當總統和國會意見相左時，總統的作用就會被進一步削弱。

If a president comes in or after two years, let's say Congress now switches political power, what happens?

如果總統上臺，或者兩年後，比方說國會現在交換了政治權力，會發生什麼？

The president, it doesn't matter what they want anymore.

總統，他們想要什麼已經不重要了。

It has to get through Congress.

它必須通過國會。

And so if Congress is shutting down the president's agenda, nothing gets passed.

是以，如果國會阻止總統的議程，那麼什麼都無法通過。

Beyond policies, many other variables make it challenging for the president to steer the economy however they see fit.

除了政策之外，還有許多其他變數，使得總統很難隨心所欲地引導經濟。

The U.S. economy is like a giant supertanker.

美國經濟就像一艘巨大的超級油輪。

And that supertanker is going to have a great deal of momentum by virtue of its size and velocity that a president simply has no control over.

而這艘超級油輪憑藉其規模和速度，將擁有總統根本無法控制的巨大動力。

So what's going on in the global economy?

全球經濟到底怎麼了？

It's supply chains of minerals or oil or oil prices or wars or pandemics.

這是礦產、石油、油價、戰爭或流行病的供應鏈。

All of these, right, can really have a big influence on what's happening in the U.S. economy.

所有這些，都會對美國經濟的發展產生重大影響。

And yet they're very much outside of the president's direct control.

然而，他們在很大程度上不在總統的直接控制範圍內。

Even beyond that, right, individual states within the United States, they have influence over, you know, their state tax policies, unemployment insurance in different states.

除此以外，美國各州對本州的稅收政策、失業保險也有影響。

The president doesn't control a lot of what goes on in each state.

總統並不能控制每個州發生的很多事情。

And yet what goes on in each state can have a lot of influence on the overall national economy.

然而，每個州的情況都會對整個國家經濟產生很大影響。

The president's influence on the economy, it's not zero, but it is highly contingent and also not necessarily immediate in terms of what can be done.

總統對經濟的影響並非為零，但它具有很強的偶然性，而且也不一定能立竿見影。

The president's role can become more important during times of crises.

在危機時期，總統的作用會變得更加重要。

I think the president's powers are most important when the country has an identifiable crisis.

我認為，當國家出現可識別的危機時，總統的權力最為重要。

In 2008, we had the Troubled Assets Relief Program signed into law by President Bush.

2008 年，布什總統將問題資產救助計劃簽署為法律。

One year later, we're still in the midst and throes of the Great Recession.

一年後，我們仍處於大衰退的漩渦之中。

President Obama comes in and signs Congress's Reinvestment and Recovery Act, the stimulus package of 2009.

奧巴馬總統上任後簽署了國會的《再投資與復甦法案》，即 2009 年的經濟刺激計劃。

These were major spending bills to try to stop the economy from going into just freefall.

這些都是重要的支出法案，旨在阻止經濟自由落體。

And so in those particular moments, the president can have an influence.

是以，在這些特殊時刻，總統可以發揮影響力。

In theory, had President Bush or President Obama decided not to sign those bills, I think most economists would tell you that it would be pretty scary.

從理論上講，如果布什總統或奧巴馬總統決定不簽署這些法案，我想大多數經濟學家都會告訴你，這將是非常可怕的。

The president can figure out where the guardrails allow them to insert some special policy or initiative without the involvement of Congress.

總統可以找出允許他們在沒有國會參與的情況下插入某些特殊政策或倡議的防護欄。

If a president is well served by essentially their advisers, they will know where executive action can apply or where they think that they can essentially make a move without the approval of Congress.

如果總統的顧問們基本上都能很好地為總統服務，他們就會知道哪些地方可以採取行政行動，或者哪些地方他們認為基本上可以不經國會準許就採取行動。

But those are really special situations.

但這些都是非常特殊的情況。

Presidents also play a large role in negotiating trade deals and imposing sanctions or tariffs that can influence the economy more directly.

總統在貿易協議談判和實施制裁或關稅方面也發揮著重要作用，可以更直接地影響經濟。

In theory, presidents could have a pretty big effect were they to do something pretty extreme.

從理論上講，總統們如果做出一些非常極端的事情，可能會產生相當大的影響。

And so using tariffs, for example, if enormous, you know, 100 percent tariffs were imposed on any imports coming from particular countries, that could matter a lot.

是以，以關稅為例，如果對來自特定國家的任何進口商品徵收 100% 的鉅額關稅，就會產生很大影響。

I mean, consumers purchase these products.

我的意思是，消費者購買這些產品。

Businesses in the U.S. rely on these products as inputs for their own businesses.

美國的企業依靠這些產品為自己的業務提供投入。

It's just that in normal practice, presidents don't do this.

只是在正常情況下，總統不會這樣做。

Experts also suggest that the outcome of an election could also have an impact on consumer sentiment.

專家還認為，選舉結果也會對消費者情緒產生影響。

In our polarized era, a question that sometimes comes up is might consumers actually change their spending habits or their their habits for the future based on who is running?

在我們這個兩極分化的時代，有時會出現這樣一個問題：消費者是否真的會因為誰參選而改變自己的消費習慣或未來的消費習慣？

Right.

對

So if someone believes that a Republican president would be better for a business, will they hold off on investment or something until that president comes into office because they feel more secure about the economy?

那麼，如果有人認為共和黨總統對企業更有利，他們是否會因為對經濟更有安全感而暫緩投資或做其他事情，直到這位總統上臺？

And so in this way, some have been interested in researching this idea that consumers change their behavior in ways that can affect the economy based on who is in office.

是以，有些人一直有興趣研究這種觀點，即消費者會根據誰在位而改變他們的行為，從而影響經濟。

It's important for voters to have accurate expectations of what the president is actually able to do.

重要的是，選民要對總統的實際能力有準確的預期。

If you have this idea in your head that presidents wave a wand and they'll make the economy wonderful and that everything will turn around in a few months and just be great.

如果你腦子裡有這樣的想法：總統們揮揮魔杖，他們就會讓經濟變得美好，一切都會在幾個月內扭轉乾坤，變得棒極了。

Well, it's kind of a, you know, a delusion of sorts.

嗯，你知道，這是一種錯覺。

There is no overstating the importance of the presidency, but we can overstate the powers that we think the president can wield.

總統的重要性怎麼強調都不為過，但我們可以誇大我們認為總統可以行使的權力。

And that's a problem.

這是個問題。