Name: 特朗普的第二個任期將有何不同 (How Trump’s second term will be different)
Uploaded: 2024-11-07T02:57:15.000Z
Duration: 13 min 27 s

Donald Trump will become the 47th president of the United States.

唐納德-特朗普將成為美國第 47 任總統。

I want to thank the American people for the extraordinary honor of being elected your 47th president and your 45th president.

我要感謝美國人民給予我非凡的榮譽，讓我當選為你們的第 47 任總統和第 45 任總統。

程度副詞

So I think we should start off by just saying what's happening and then my big question is going to be, how should we be thinking about this?

是以，我認為我們應該先說說發生了什麼，然後我的大問題是，我們應該如何思考這個問題？

We now know that Donald Trump is returning to the White House.

我們現在知道，唐納德-特朗普將重返白宮。

American voters have seen what Trump had to offer and at least a critical mass of them decided they want to do the same thing again.

美國選民已經看到了特朗普的所作所為，他們中至少有一部分人決定要重蹈覆轍。

I called up some colleagues at Vox to ask what we should be making of this moment and I ended up spending a long time talking to Zach.

我給 Vox 的一些同事打了電話，詢問我們應該如何看待這一時刻，結果我和扎克聊了很久。

I'm Zach Beecham, I'm a senior correspondent at Vox.

我是扎克-比徹姆（Zach Beecham），Vox資深記者。

Zach writes about reactionary politics, the right wing basically, and the thing that he really wanted me to understand is that even though the outcome of this election is the same as the 2016 election, the Trump who is about to become president is different.

扎克寫的是反動政治，基本上是右翼政治，而他真正想讓我明白的是，儘管這次大選的結果與2016年大選相同，但即將成為總統的特朗普是不同的。

Donald Trump is much more organized, he knows what he's doing, has a series of distinct policy objectives that he's reiterated again and again.

唐納德-特朗普更有條理，他知道自己在做什麼，有一系列他一再重申的明確政策目標。

It will be in a lot of ways fundamentally different than what we all lived through four years ago.

它將在很多方面與四年前我們所經歷的有著本質的不同。

Lock up the Bibles, lock up Hillary, lock them up.

把《聖經》鎖起來，把希拉里鎖起來，把他們鎖起來。

The first time Trump was president, he wanted to do all sorts of very controversial things and a lot of times he didn't actually end up doing them.

特朗普第一次擔任總統時，他想做各種非常有爭議的事情，但很多時候他最終並沒有真正去做。

One big example is wanting his critics and political opponents to be prosecuted.

其中一個很大的例子就是希望起訴他的批評者和政治對手。

He was constrained by other parts of the political system, the guardrails of democracy.

他受制於政治制度的其他部分，即民主的護欄。

我是安德魯-普羅科普，我報道政治。

The guardrails encompass first Congress and the courts, but also within the executive branch, you have Trump's own appointees for top positions who often last time around proved unwilling to carry out some of the things he wanted to do.

護欄首先包括國會和法院，但在行政部門內部，也有特朗普自己任命的高級職位人選，這些人上次往往被證明不願意執行他想做的一些事情。

Then you also have the permanent civil service career employees that he can't fire at will.

此外，他還不能隨意解僱長期的公務員職業僱員。

First of all, the courts have grown more conservative and more Trump-friendly since he put three of his own appointees in the Supreme Court.

首先，自從特朗普將自己任命的三人送入最高法院後，法院變得更加保守，對特朗普更加友好。

Congressional Republicans have grown much more pro-Trump.

國會共和黨人越來越親特朗普。

Trump and the people around him want hardcore MAGA true believers staffing the government who will not have these pesky qualms about legality or ethics or things like that.

特朗普和他周圍的人希望鐵桿的 MAGA 忠實信徒能在政府中任職，而這些人不會對合法性、道德或諸如此類的事情有這些煩人的顧慮。

Trump wants to use an executive order to reclassify thousands of people with civil service protections against firing as political appointees who he can fire to then put in a lot of MAGA loyalists in their place instead.

特朗普想用行政命令將成千上萬受公務員保護不得解僱的人重新歸類為政治任命人員，他可以解僱這些人，然後讓大量忠於 MAGA 的人取而代之。

He's had four years to basically stew over, you know, what he didn't get to do last time and what he would do differently if he was given another chance.

他有四年的時間來思考，你知道，他上次沒有做到的事情，以及如果再給他一次機會，他會怎麼做。

And now he will seemingly get that chance.

而現在，他似乎有了這樣的機會。

We're going to have the largest deportation in the history of our country.

我們將迎來我國曆史上最大規模的驅逐行動。

The mantra that Trump had on the border on 2016 was build the wall.

2016 年，特朗普在邊境問題上的口號是建牆。

That was his centerpiece of his immigration platform.

That sort of changed over the course of his presidency.

這種情況在他擔任總統期間有所改變。

And increasingly, he wanted to turn his intention not to the border, but to the interior of the U.S., the undocumented population here.

而且，他越來越想把他的意圖不是轉向邊境，而是轉向美國內陸，轉向這裡的無證人口。

I'm Nicole Norea, and I cover politics and immigration for Vox.

我是 Nicole Norea，為 Vox 報道政治和移民問題。

Under Biden, there were record levels of people arriving on the border.

拜登執政期間，抵達邊境的人數創下歷史新高。

We've seen those numbers come down significantly in 2024.

在 2024 年，我們看到這些數字大幅下降。

But when Americans are pulled, large portions of them say that they want mass deportations.

但是，當美國人被拉出來時，他們中的很大一部分人說，他們希望大規模驅逐出境。

They might be thinking about people being deported immediately after they arrive on the border.

他們可能在想，人們在抵達邊境後會立即被驅逐出境。

But that's not what Trump's contemplating.

He's trying to go into communities across the U.S.

他正試圖進入美國各地的社區。

and we're talking about people who have lived here, you know, for years and decades.

我們說的是在這裡生活了幾年甚至幾十年的人。

That would sort of involve huge investments in law enforcement and also the cooperation of local law enforcement agencies, which I'm not sure we would see necessarily in Democratic states.

這將涉及到對執法的鉅額投資，以及地方執法機構的合作，我不確定我們是否會在民主黨各州看到這一點。

But let's say in states like Texas and Florida, certainly you might find law enforcement willing to cooperate with federal immigration authorities there.

但比方說，在德克薩斯州和佛羅里達州，你肯定會發現那裡的執法部門願意與聯邦移民當局合作。

A landmark decision in American history as it relates to presidential power.

美國曆史上與總統權力有關的一個里程碑式的決定。

When Trump initially took office, the median vote on the Supreme Court was a moderate conservative, someone who would draw the line somewhere.

特朗普上任之初，最高法院的票數中位數是溫和保守派，他們會在某個地方劃清界限。

Then Trump appointed a third of the United States Supreme Court.

然後，特朗普任命了美國最高法院三分之一的法官。

I'm Ian Milhiser, I cover the Supreme Court at Vox.

我是 Ian Milhiser，在 Vox 報道最高法院。

Trump v. United States is the decision that came down last July, concerning Special Prosecutor Jack Smith's indictment of Trump for trying to steal the 2020 presidential election.

特朗普訴美國案是去年 7 月做出的判決，涉及特別檢察官傑克-史密斯對特朗普試圖竊取 2020 年總統大選的起訴。

Trump made this really outlandish argument that he could not be charged with the crime for any official acts he committed while president.

特朗普提出了一個非常離譜的論點，即他在擔任總統期間的任何公務行為都不會被指控犯罪。

Pretty much everyone thought that that argument was silly and ridiculous and there was no chance that the court would ever adopt it.

幾乎所有人都認為這種說法愚蠢可笑，法院根本不可能採納。

And then all six of the Republican justices,

然後是所有六位共和黨大法官、

And then all six of the Republican justices adopted it.

然後，所有六位共和黨大法官都採納了這一建議。

What that decision said, it said that Donald Trump is immune from criminal prosecution for crimes that he commits using the official powers of office.

該判決指出，唐納德-特朗普利用職權犯下的罪行可以免於刑事起訴。

Trump is allowed to give any order he wants to the Department of Justice.

特朗普可以向司法部下達任何命令。

The basic matter is just that anything he does can potentially be beyond the scope of the criminal justice process.

最根本的問題是，他所做的任何事情都有可能超出刑事司法程序的範圍。

More than 40,000 Palestinians killed since the October 7th Hamas massacre.

自 10 月 7 日哈馬斯大屠殺以來，已有 4 萬多名巴勒斯坦人被殺害。

Right now, the situation on the ground in Gaza is an extraordinary humanitarian crisis and a moral stain on the United States for enabling so much of this to happen.

眼下，加沙當地的局勢是一場非同尋常的人道主義危機，也是美國的道德汙點，因為它促成了這麼多事情的發生。

Trump has a blank check approach to Israel.

特朗普對以色列採取空頭支票的做法。

He and his advisors don't believe in any of the even feeble restraints that the United States has to comply with.

他和他的顧問們不相信美國必須遵守的任何限制，哪怕是微不足道的限制。

They don't believe in any of the even feeble restraints that the Biden administration had put on Israeli conduct.

他們不相信拜登政府對以色列行為施加的任何限制，哪怕是微不足道的限制。

There are factions inside the Israeli government that have different visions of how to conduct the war.

以色列政府內部各派對如何進行戰爭有不同的看法。

People like Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gavir believe that Trump will let them do what they want based on what he said, what his advisors say, and what his political coalition at home wants.

Bezalel Smotrich 和 Itamar Ben-Gavir 等人相信，特朗普會根據他說的話、他的顧問說的話以及他在國內的政治聯盟的要求，讓他們為所欲為。

Are you on board with the way the IDF is taking the fight in Gaza?

你同意以色列國防軍在加沙的作戰方式嗎？

Maximalist vision of what they want the war to be.

Actually seizing and taking Gaza for Israel and returning to settlement, right, to rebuilding Israeli outposts, moving Israeli Jewish citizens in to make sure that its control over the area never slips.

實際上是為以色列奪取並佔領加沙，返回定居點，對吧，重建以色列前哨基地，將以色列猶太公民遷入，以確保以色列對該地區的控制永不衰退。

That would mean not just temporary eviction of Gazans from their homes and their cities, which would be bad enough.

這不僅意味著將加沙人暫時趕出家園和城市，這已經夠糟糕的了。

It would mean creating a massive permanent refugee population.

這意味著將產生大量永久性難民人口。

Outside of Gaza and the West Bank, we can only imagine previous American position has been you shall not under any circumstances annex parts of the West Bank.

在加沙和約旦河西岸之外，我們只能想象美國以前的立場是，你們在任何情況下都不得吞併約旦河西岸的部分地區。

It would be Israel declaring, in essence, its willingness to rule over the Palestinians in perpetuity.

這實質上是以色列宣佈願意永久統治巴勒斯坦人。

What I do know for sure is that a Trump administration would do nothing to punish them for it.

我可以肯定的是，特朗普政府不會是以懲罰他們。

我是亞當。我製作了這段視頻。

I think it is fair to say this is a historic moment.

可以說，這是一個歷史性的時刻。

And one thing it shows is that we truly do not know what the future holds.

這表明，我們確實不知道未來會發生什麼。

In these next four years, journalism is going to be important.

在接下來的四年裡，新聞業將變得非常重要。

It will sometimes be a struggle to know exactly what you should be paying attention to.

有時，要知道自己到底應該注意些什麼會很費勁。

We would like to be a place that you come to have your biggest questions answered, whether on our YouTube channel, our podcast, our newsletters, our website.

無論是在我們的 YouTube 頻道、播客、時事通訊還是網站上，我們都希望成為一個能為您解答最大問題的地方。

Our reporters, like the ones that you have seen in this video, their job is to point you to what actually matters.

我們的記者，就像你們在這段視頻中看到的記者一樣，他們的工作是為你們提供真正重要的資訊。

If you believe in that mission, the best way you can support it is by becoming a Vox member.

如果您相信這一使命，那麼成為 Vox 會員就是您支持這一使命的最佳方式。

It supports all the work that we do at Vox.

它支持我們在 Vox 所做的一切工作。

And honestly, it'll also probably just help us do more videos like this that are hopefully bringing you crucial information right when it is most valuable.

老實說，這也可能會幫助我們製作更多這樣的視頻，希望能在最有價值的時候為大家帶來關鍵資訊。

You can do that at vox.com slash memberships.

您可以在 vox.com 網站上註冊會員。

Trump declared he would veto a national abortion ban if he's reelected.

特朗普宣佈，如果連任，他將否決全國墮胎禁令。

Trump winning the presidency is not good for abortion rights.

特朗普贏得總統大選對墮胎權不利。

I mean, he's been out there claiming that he's the father of IVF, that he's going to be great for women's rights, but he surrounds himself with lots of people who absolutely, you know, do not have that as their goal.

我的意思是，他一直在外面宣稱他是試管嬰兒之父，他將為婦女權利做出巨大貢獻，但他身邊有很多人，你知道，他們的目標絕對不是這個。

I cover social policy at Vox, and I've been really focused on abortion rights for the last two and a half years since Roe was overturned.

我在 Vox 報道社會政策，自羅伊法案被推翻以來的兩年半里，我一直非常關注墮胎權利。

Something that has been confusing for voters is that

I don't think we're going to see a federal ban coming out of Congress.

我認為國會不會出臺聯邦禁令。

The biggest way that Trump could, I think, use his executive power to restrict abortion rights is to push for the enforcement of the Comstock Act on the federal level.

我認為，特朗普利用其行政權力限制墮胎權利的最大方式就是在聯邦層面推動《康斯托克法案》的實施。

The Comstock Act was this law passed in 1873, and among other things, it banned mailing anything associated with abortion.

康斯托克法案》是 1873 年通過的一項法律，其中禁止郵寄任何與墮胎有關的物品。

When the Supreme Court legalized abortion nationwide, the Comstock Act was rendered moot.

當最高法院在全國範圍內使墮胎合法化後，《康斯托克法案》就失去了意義。

It didn't matter anymore, but Congress never actually repealed it.

這已經不重要了，但國會從未真正廢除它。

Now that Roe has been overturned, you have a bunch of conservatives, including J.D. Vance, who are saying now is the time actually to enforce this zombie law that's been on the books for decades that people forgot about, and we should ban anything associated with abortion from being sent in the mail.

現在，羅伊法案被推翻了，包括J.D. Vance在內的一幫保守派人士說，現在是時候真正執行這條已經存在了幾十年、被人們遺忘的殭屍法律了，我們應該禁止郵寄任何與墮胎有關的東西。

So that could include not only abortion pills, which are used in the majority of abortions in the U.S., but it could also mean any medical equipment associated with surgical abortion, like dilators or speculums.

是以，這不僅包括在美國大多數墮胎中使用的墮胎藥，還包括與手術墮胎相關的任何醫療設備，如擴張器或窺器。

That would effectively mean a nationwide ban on abortion.

這實際上意味著在全國範圍內禁止墮胎。

Some might say it's economic nationalism.

有人可能會說這是經濟民族主義。

The thing about tariffs is that the president has a lot of unilateral authority to impose them without Congress's will.

關稅的問題在於，總統擁有很大的單邊權力，可以在沒有國會意願的情況下徵收關稅。