After meeting our obligations, we have very little money left.

在履行義務後，我們的資金所剩無幾。

One count suggests that 27 states lack the necessary funds to pay their bills.

一項統計表明，有 27 個州缺乏支付賬單所需的資金。

The problem is most prominent in states like Connecticut, New Jersey, and Illinois.

這一問題在康涅狄格、紐澤西和伊利諾伊等州最為突出。

Not only the city of Chicago, but the state of Illinois is running straight into a brick wall in terms of its finances.

不僅是芝加哥市，伊利諾伊州的財政狀況也是一籌莫展。

City of Chicago is facing a billion dollar deficit.

芝加哥市正面臨著十億美元的赤字。

State's facing a massive deficit while also needing to bail out things like the Chicago Transit Authority.

州政府面臨鉅額赤字，同時還需要救助芝加哥交通局等機構。

Chicago Public Schools is asking for a bailout.

芝加哥公立學校要求救助。

The state cannot afford these things.

國家負擔不起這些東西。

States received about $800 billion from the federal government to kick off the decade.

各州從聯邦政府獲得了約 8000 億美元的資金，為這十年拉開了序幕。

That spending obscured long-running issues.

這些開支掩蓋了長期存在的問題。

What we're seeing is largely a return to earth from those pandemic surpluses.

我們所看到的，主要是從那些大流行病的盈餘中迴歸大地。

You know, we saw a big increase in income taxes.

要知道，我們看到所得稅大幅增加。

It was really like a bit of an economic boom.

這確實有點像經濟繁榮。

States now are working with tighter budgets as the country's population and infrastructure ages.

隨著人口和基礎設施的老齡化，各州現在的預算越來越緊張。

Even economically powerful states see trouble ahead.

即使是經濟實力強大的州也看到了未來的麻煩。

To the degree that the states are relying on federal aid, it becomes a daisy chain of vulnerability.

各州對聯邦援助的依賴程度越高，脆弱性就越大。

State governments account for 15% of the nation's economic output.

州政府佔全國經濟總量的 15%。

And they employ 13% of the U.S. workforce.

他們僱用了 13% 的美國勞動力。

So why are so many state governments going broke?

那麼，為什麼這麼多州政府會破產呢？

And what can they do to repair their finances?

他們又該如何修復自己的財務呢？

State governments pay for much of the nation's systems of education, healthcare, transportation, and public housing.

國家的教育、醫療、交通和公共住房系統大多由州政府支付。

But they received tremendous amounts of help from the federal government to do that.

但他們為此得到了聯邦政府的大量幫助。

In 2022, federal grants covered 38% of total spending from state governments.

2022 年，聯邦撥款佔州政府總支出的 38%。

That was a bit more than usual.

這比平時多了一點。

During the pandemic, we saw a lot of one-time revenue, a lot of one-time expenditures that kind of had the effect of obscuring these long-term challenges that states faced.

在大流行病期間，我們看到了大量的一次性收入和一次性支出，這些收入和支出掩蓋了各州面臨的長期挑戰。

The ensuing economic boom strengthened state coffers and increased revenues.

隨之而來的經濟繁榮鞏固了國庫，增加了財政收入。

The increase in revenue helped state leaders lower taxes and increase spending.

收入的增加有助於州上司降低稅收和增加支出。

We, you, all of us together, delivered both the largest tax cut ever by a huge margin and the largest increase in teacher salaries in our state's history.

我們，你們，我們所有人一起，以巨大的優勢實現了史上最大幅度的減稅，以及本州歷史上最大幅度的教師工資增長。

We understand that that's, you know, something that is politically palatable, particularly in the time of an election.

我們知道，這在政治上是可以接受的，尤其是在選舉期間。

It is something that if those receipts decline, we may see some future imbalances between, you know, expenditures and revenues that states will have to correct.

如果這些收入減少，我們可能會看到未來各州必須糾正的一些收支失衡現象。

Virtually every state made a tax cut.

幾乎每個州都進行了減稅。

In some cases, this is a very intentional plan for states to, you know, spend down these unexpectedly high revenues.

在某些情況下，這是各州政府有意為之的計劃，你知道，就是要把這些出乎意料的高收入花掉。

On the other side, this could really reflect, you know, tightening budget conditions and states needing to draw on those dollars to help make ends meet right now.

從另一個角度看，這也確實反映出，你知道的，預算條件趨緊，各州現在需要動用這些資金來幫助收支平衡。

But the federal funds given to states will run out in 2026, as a cost-of-living crisis hits many parts of the country.

但是，隨著生活費用危機在美國許多地區的爆發，給各州的聯邦資金將於 2026 年用完。

For too many, the cost of living is too high.

對很多人來說，生活成本太高了。

The higher cost of living is making some state leaders consider tax relief.

較高的生活成本使得一些州領導人開始考慮減稅。

That includes places like Wyoming and North Dakota.

其中包括懷俄明州和北達科他州等地。

States that do well are North Dakota, Idaho, South Dakota.

做得好的州有北達科他州、愛達荷州和南達科他州。

And what these states really have in common is that they have a relatively limited fiscal footprint.

而這些州的真正共同點是，它們的財政足跡相對有限。

Many policymakers across the states, they did pretty well managing the pandemic era budget surpluses.

各州的許多政策制定者在管理大流行病時期的預算盈餘方面做得相當不錯。

A huge looming question out there is around the long-term affordability of the tax cuts and spending increases that were enacted.

一個迫在眉睫的大問題是，減稅和增加開支的政策是否能夠長期承受。

State governments also have to manage long-running financial liabilities.

州政府還必須管理長期的財政負債。

There are states like Illinois, Connecticut and New Jersey.

還有伊利諾伊州、康涅狄格州和新澤西州。

While these states really have accumulated a lot of debt after the great financial crisis, the main reason for their weak fiscal stance is the pension obligation.

雖然這些州在大金融危機後確實積累了大量債務，但其財政狀況疲軟的主要原因是養老金債務。

Roughly 86 percent of public employees receive pensions.

約有 86% 的公職人員領取養老金。

These are retirement plans that provide guaranteed income for life.

這些退休計劃可終身提供有保障的收入。

States and cities, in order to attract public servants, maybe paying them less money than they would make in the private sector, provide generous pensions.

各州和各城市為了吸引公務員，也許支付給他們的工資低於他們在私營部門的收入，但卻為他們提供了豐厚的養老金。

And they ended up getting behind.

結果他們落後了。

If pension liabilities are fully accounted for, as many as 27 states lack the money needed to pay their bills.

如果養老金負債全部計算在內，多達 27 個州缺乏支付賬單所需的資金。

What goes a little bit under the radar is that pension liabilities are an extremely expensive form of debt.

讓人稍感忽視的是，養老金負債是一種極其昂貴的債務形式。

The portion of the pension that is unfunded increases by 7 percent every single year.

養老金中沒有資金保障的部分每年增加 7%。

This debt leaves states with less money to fund public programs.

這些債務使各州用於資助公共項目的資金減少。

So we're talking hospitals, we're talking about roads, we're talking about schools.

是以，我們在討論醫院、道路和學校。

Take Illinois, for example, which owes money to former employees, but has less than half of the funds raised to pay them back.

以伊利諾伊州為例，該州拖欠前僱員的工資，但籌集到的還貸資金還不到一半。

We've seen analysis from JP Morgan that says in order to actually fund these enormously generous promises that were made decades ago, you would have to double the state income tax overnight in Illinois.

我們看到摩根大通（JP Morgan）的分析報告稱，為了為這些幾十年前許下的慷慨承諾提供資金，伊利諾伊州的州所得稅必須在一夜之間翻番。

Illinois Governor J.B.

伊利諾伊州州長 J.B.

Pritzker has steadily kept spending on areas like roads in addition to education.

除教育外，普利茲克還穩步保持了道路等領域的支出。

Penny by penny, we are still working together, saving important things for our state.

我們仍在一分一毫地共同努力，為我們的國家挽救重要的東西。

This requires tax increases to balance the budget.

這就需要增加稅收來平衡預算。

But that option may not be available to a state like Illinois, which already has relatively high tax rates.

但像伊利諾伊州這樣稅率已經相對較高的州可能就沒有這種選擇了。

Using taxes to raise additional revenue is limited.

利用稅收來增加額外收入是有限的。

Higher taxes tend to make people move, especially top earners.

高稅率往往會促使人們搬家，尤其是高收入者。

That's according to studies on states like California.

這是根據對加利福尼亞等州的研究得出的結論。

When the marginal tax rate increases by 3 percent, California loses about 0.8 percent in the tax base in the top income bracket.

當邊際稅率增加 3% 時，加州最高收入階層的稅基將減少約 0.8%。

That's actually substantial because it's like 1 percent of the tax base in the very high bracket, which for the most part accounts for the majority of tax revenues overall.

這實際上是很可觀的，因為這相當於極高稅率稅基的 1%，而在大多數情況下，極高稅率稅基佔整個稅收收入的大部分。

Moving forward, state governments must respond to emerging risks like more extreme weather, an aging population, and migration.

展望未來，州政府必須應對新出現的風險，如更極端的天氣、人口老齡化和移民。

Migration, I believe, is going to be one of the biggest issues that will face the country.

我相信，移民問題將是我國面臨的最大問題之一。

In the 2020s, many Americans moved from high tax areas into states like Florida, Texas and North Carolina.

2020 年代，許多美國人從高稅收地區遷往佛羅里達、得克薩斯和北卡羅來納等州。

Coincidentally, those states that have those low income taxes, of course, they are attractive because of the climate, but they also have a high degree of climate risk.

巧合的是，那些徵收低所得稅的州當然因氣候而具有吸引力，但它們的氣候風險也很高。

That's where it gets, it's going to be a real test for politicians in terms of managing the state budget.

這將是對政治家管理國家預算的真正考驗。

Florida, for example, has drawn many people with its lack of state income taxes and business-friendly policies, but it sees risks ahead.

例如，佛羅里達州以其不徵收州所得稅和對企業友好的政策吸引了許多人，但它也看到了未來的風險。

Florida is being challenged by a few factors that may be outside of policymakers' control.

佛羅里達州正面臨著一些決策者可能無法控制的因素的挑戰。

Within Florida's long-term budget assessment, they actually highlight Medicaid as a growing fiscal concern for the state.

在佛羅里達州的長期預算評估中，他們實際上強調醫療補助是該州一個日益嚴重的財政問題。

And of course, climate change and hurricanes hitting the state of Florida is a real concern.

當然，氣候變化和颶風襲擊佛羅里達州也確實令人擔憂。

The federal government generally handles over 75% of disaster-related costs.

聯邦政府通常承擔 75% 以上的災害相關費用。

Agencies like the Federal Emergency Management Authority, or FEMA, could quickly run out their budgets and require further funds from Congress.

聯邦緊急事務管理局（FEMA）等機構的預算可能很快用完，需要國會進一步撥款。

I think anyone that's relying on FEMA to be leading the response, that is not the way proper storm response is.

我認為，任何依靠聯邦緊急事務管理局來上司應對工作的人，都不是正確的風暴應對方式。

There's a great concern of what that future risk is to the federal government, and that it's a big number that's being presented to the taxpayer, ultimately.

人們非常擔心聯邦政府未來會面臨怎樣的風險，而且最終要向納稅人提出的是一個很大的數字。

Nearly all counties in the United States are exposed to some sort of climate hazard.

美國幾乎所有的縣都受到某種氣候災害的影響。

I don't think people always associate a rising number of heat days with climate.

我不認為人們總是把高溫天數的增加與氣候聯繫在一起。

I think the Midwest, being exposed to extreme heat, it can compound other hazards, which can be particularly impactful to agriculture.

我認為，中西部地區暴露在極端高溫下，會加劇其他危害，對農業的影響尤為嚴重。

Crop production in the Midwest does contribute to that gross state product.

中西部地區的農作物生產確實為該州的生產總值做出了貢獻。

You know, we've seen a lot of food inflation over the last couple of years.

要知道，在過去幾年裡，我們已經看到了很多食品通脹。

Right now, the market isn't pricing in climate risks into securities, into municipal bonds.

目前，市場並未將氣候風險納入證券和市政債券的定價。

And so this becomes a future potential bill for state and local governments.

是以，這將成為州政府和地方政府未來的潛在法案。

Even in North Carolina, where Helene went up and disaster struck, could anyone have really anticipated that?

即使是在北卡羅來納州，海倫升空，災難降臨，真的有人能預料到嗎？

You need to check on your health of your infrastructure, and can it withstand a severe stress test?

您需要檢查基礎設施的健康狀況，它能否經受住嚴峻的壓力測試？

The largest banks have to do stress tests coming out of the Great Recession.

大衰退之後，最大的銀行必須進行壓力測試。

There's a similar concept that states actually do.

各州實際上也有類似的概念。

At least 20 states review their financial strength by conducting stress tests or long-term budget assessments.

至少有 20 個州通過進行壓力測試或長期預算評估來審查其財政實力。

And all 50 are developing rainy day funds.

所有 50 個國家都在建立雨天基金。

These savings are used during economic downturns.

這些節餘在經濟衰退時使用。

Some states, like New Jersey, Montana, and Illinois, have very low savings in these funds.

有些州，如新澤西州、蒙大拿州和伊利諾伊州，這些基金的節餘非常少。

Other states, like Wyoming and Alaska, could finance their operations for months.

其他州，如懷俄明州和阿拉斯加州，可以為其數月的營運提供資金。

Alaska, a very resource-rich state, a lot of its tax revenue is derived from oil prices and what's called severance taxes on net energy production.

阿拉斯加州是一個資源非常豐富的州，它的很多稅收都來自石油價格和所謂的能源生產淨額分離稅。

It really is a double-edged sword for a state like Alaska, as well as other states like North Dakota and Wyoming.

對於阿拉斯加這樣的州以及北達科他州和懷俄明州等其他州來說，這確實是一把雙刃劍。

This dependence on oil prices and on those severance taxes has really become unsustainable.

這種對石油價格和開採稅的依賴已經到了難以為繼的地步。

The point of optimism is that we're seeing more and more states do their assessment, do their homework, right, to understand whether they are on a fiscally sustainable trajectory these days.

樂觀的一點是，我們看到越來越多的州在做評估、做功課，對吧，以瞭解它們如今是否走在財政上可持續的軌道上。

For example, the state of Maryland found budget gaps in its long-term assessment conducted in 2022.

例如，馬里蘭州在 2022 年進行的長期評估中發現了預算缺口。

And to the state leader's credit, they focused on finding longer-term solutions by raising revenue, some spending cuts.

值得稱讚的是，州政府領導人把重點放在了通過增加收入和削減部分開支來尋找長期解決方案上。

This trend has contributed to strong credit ratings for states across the board.

這一趨勢促使各州的信用評級全面提升。

When you're in a healthy condition, right, that's when you're supposed to be planning for adversity and not reacting to it.

當你處於健康狀態時，你就應該為逆境做好準備，而不是對逆境做出反應。

This is really an opportune time for those issuers who are in geographic areas of high degrees of climate risk.

對於那些處於高氣候風險地區的發行商來說，這確實是一個好時機。

The level of annual issuance of municipal debt may have to double from about $400 to $450 billion to between $800 and $900 billion annually for the assets, the public assets in the U.S. to be adapted and more resilient to climate hazards. 68% of investment advisors in the United States see public debt as the top economic issue to the country.

要使美國的資產、公共資產適應氣候災害並具有更強的抵禦能力，市政債務的年發行量可能必須翻一番，從每年約 4,000 億至 4,500 億美元增加到 8,000 億至 9,000 億美元。美國 68% 的投資顧問認為公共債務是美國面臨的首要經濟問題。

I don't think politicians have any plan, really, to solve this in Illinois.

我不認為政客們真的有任何計劃來解決伊利諾伊州的問題。

And we saw a hint of this, actually, during the pandemic.

實際上，在大流行病期間，我們就看到了這種跡象。

Illinois was going to Congress asking for a $10 billion pension bailout.

伊利諾伊州向國會申請 100 億美元的養老金救助。

That is really the only answer they have because it's so politically toxic to keep raising taxes on Illinois residents.

這確實是他們唯一的答案，因為不斷提高伊利諾伊州居民的稅收在政治上是非常有害的。

There are certainly tremendous challenges going forward.

未來肯定會面臨巨大的挑戰。

There's still like a $1.3 trillion of pension debt outstanding.

還有 1.3 萬億美元的養老金債務尚未償還。

So that's big relative to, you know, the annual revenues that those states received.

是以，相對於這些州的年收入而言，這是一個很大的數字。