Name: 【2024美國大選】賀錦麗、川普該採取什麼策略贏得 270 張選舉人票？ (How Harris or Trump could win 270 electoral votes)
Uploaded: 2024-11-04T04:11:44.000Z
Duration: 2 min 18 s

Let's bring in our political director, Washington Bureau Chief Rick Klein.

下面有請我們的政治部主任，華盛頓分社社長裡克-克萊恩。

Rick, the poll's all bunched up as we head into the final weekend.

裡克，在進入最後一個週末的時候，民意調查的結果都是一團糟。

Walk through some of the different paths that each candidate has.

The 538 battleground polls tell the story right now.

538 戰區民調說明了目前的情況。

The polling average is everywhere, all seven battlegrounds.

民調平均值無處不在，所有七個戰場都是如此。

No one has a lead of more than two and a half points, all within any poll's margin of error.

沒有人的領先優勢超過兩個半百分點，均在任何民調的誤差範圍之內。

So to start with, if you just assume that the polls are accurate, which of course is a huge assumption, this is where things would land at the end of election night.

是以，首先，如果您假定民調結果準確無誤，這當然是一個巨大的假設，那麼選舉之夜結束時的情況就是這樣。

Donald Trump, over 270 electoral votes, he would clinch the presidency for a second time.

如果唐納德-特朗普獲得超過 270 張選舉人票，他將第二次當選總統。

那麼，讓我們來玩一下這個遊戲。

Let's say that the polls are understating Vice President Harris or that she has a big ground operation, ekes out just enough votes to win.

假設民調低估了副總統哈里斯的票數，或者她有強大的地面行動，能夠獲得足夠的選票獲勝。

Here's a scenario that's probably her likeliest path to victory.

以下是她最有可能獲勝的方案。

She picks up one electoral vote in Nebraska.

她在內布拉斯加州獲得一張選舉人票。

And then Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, the Rust Belt, the blue wall holds right there.

然後是威斯康星州、密歇根州、賓夕法尼亞州，"鐵鏽地帶 "的藍牆就在那裡。

But of course the polls could be off in the other direction or Trump is able to hold.

當然，民調也可能偏離另一個方向，或者特朗普能夠守住。

This is Trump's likeliest path to victory.

這是特朗普最有可能獲勝的途徑。

If he holds the two battlegrounds out west in Nevada and Arizona and the two southern battlegrounds, Georgia and North Carolina, he is then just one state away from clinching the presidency.

如果他守住內華達州和亞利桑那州這兩個西部戰場以及佐治亞州和北卡羅來納州這兩個南部戰場，那麼他就只差一個州就能鎖定總統寶座。

Pennsylvania is the biggest prize on the map.

賓夕法尼亞州是地圖上最大的獎賞。

The single most important battleground state on the map probably for either candidate, George.

對於任何一位候選人來說，這可能是地圖上最重要的一個戰場州，喬治。

Rick, we have massive early vote, but does it tell us anything?

裡克，我們有大規模的提前投票，但這能說明什麼嗎？

Well, look, this is what we know so far. 65 million Americans have voted already.

好吧，聽著，這是我們目前知道的。6500萬美國人已經投票

It's 40% of the total turnout from 2020 with still four days to go.

這是 2020 年總投票率的 40%，還有四天時間。

We don't know who people voted for quite yet, but the Harris campaign's been touting what they call good news for them in the early voting.

我們還不知道大家投給了誰 但哈里斯競選團隊一直在宣傳 他們所謂的提前投票的好消息

So far, women making up about 55% of the people who have already voted.

到目前為止，女性約佔已投票人數的 55%。

That gap was actually a little bit larger by a single point four years ago, although in 2016, it was a little bit more even.

實際上，四年前這一差距還要大一點，只有一個百分點，不過在 2016 年，這一差距稍微拉平了一點。

The other thing we can tell is the likely partisanship of people who have already voted.

另外，我們還可以看出已經投票的人可能具有的黨派傾向。

So far across the battleground states, a two-point edge for Democrats.

到目前為止，在各交戰州中，民主黨的優勢為兩個百分點。

But four years ago, it was a nine-point edge.

但四年前，我們的優勢是 9 分。

A lot of things have changed in terms of voting in the four years, so it's hard to read too much into that.

四年來，投票方面發生了很多變化，是以很難對此做出過多解讀。

But the bottom line, there is no data that definitively says who will win and who will lose this race.

但最重要的一點是，沒有任何數據能明確說明誰會贏得這場比賽，誰會輸掉這場比賽。

The votes that will decide it almost certainly have not yet been cast, George.

幾乎可以肯定的是，決定勝負的選票還沒有投出，喬治。

字幕列表影片播放

【2024美國大選】賀錦麗、川普該採取什麼策略贏得 270 張選舉人票？ (How Harris or Trump could win 270 electoral votes)

assume

massive

scenario

opportunity