Name: 貴鬆鬆還是搶破頭要買！為什麼愛馬仕業績不斷增長，LV 和 Gucci 卻在下滑？ (Why Hermès Is Growing While LVMH And Gucci Decline)
Uploaded: 2024-11-08T21:01:30.000Z
Duration: 9 min 12 s

程度副詞

Hermes has been one of the main players in the world of luxury for nearly 200 years.

近 200 年來，愛馬仕一直是奢侈品世界的主要參與者之一。

But when it comes to building a brand that is desirable, that is exclusive, that is very expensive, but that is known among the elite as the status brand, Hermes stands by itself.

但是，如果要打造一個令人嚮往、獨一無二、價格昂貴，但在精英階層中又被稱為 "身份象徵 "的品牌，愛馬仕卻獨樹一幟。

The brand offers a variety of products, but its handbags are the most coveted of all.

該品牌的產品種類繁多，但手袋最令人垂涎。

Celebrities, leaders and even royals have to earn the chance to buy a Birkin or a Kelly bag, which analysts say accounts for a quarter of Hermes' total revenue.

名流、領袖甚至皇室成員都必須贏得購買 Birkin 或 Kelly 手袋的機會，分析師稱這佔愛馬仕總收入的四分之一。

And they can fetch a hefty $100,000 or more on the resale market.

在轉售市場上，它們可以賣到 10 萬美元甚至更高的價格。

When we look at brands, the most important metric to judge is desirability.

當我們審視品牌時，最重要的評判標準是可取性。

Surprise, surprise, once again, Hermes has been at the top of the list.

令人驚喜的是，愛馬仕再次名列榜首。

It's the world's fourth biggest luxury fashion brand by revenue.

按收入計算，它是世界第四大奢侈時尚品牌。

And by close on October 24th, its stock had soared to more than $22,000 a share, lifting its market cap to more than $233 billion.

截至 10 月 24 日收盤，其股價已飆升至每股 22 000 多美元，市值超過 2330 億美元。

Despite a global luxury slowdown, Hermes is seeing impressive sales and growth, all while maintaining its centuries-old strategy that places scarcity at the forefront, fueling fierce demand.

儘管全球奢侈品市場放緩，但愛馬仕的銷售額和增長速度令人印象深刻，同時還保持了其百年戰略，即把稀缺性放在首位，刺激激烈的需求。

They've managed this balance where, as a publicly traded company, they have strong sales growth, they have strong margins, but they also maintain that exclusivity and that sense that Hermes is a special thing to have because they have these different tiers of products.

作為一家上市公司，愛馬仕在實現銷售強勁增長、利潤豐厚的同時，也保持了其獨特性，讓人感覺到愛馬仕的與眾不同，因為愛馬仕擁有不同層次的產品。

And that's where they have mastered the art of the luxury game.

而這正是他們掌握奢華遊戲藝術的地方。

Hermes was founded in Paris in 1837 by Thierry Hermes, who initially made high-quality harnesses and saddles for European royalty.

愛馬仕由 Thierry Hermes 於 1837 年在巴黎創立，最初為歐洲皇室製作高品質的馬具和馬鞍。

The brand later moved to the Rue du Faubourg Saint-Honoré, where it has remained since 1880.

後來，品牌搬到了聖奧諾雷街（Rue du Faubourg Saint-Honoré），自 1880 年以來一直在那裡經營。

Its renowned products have legendary histories as well, from the Kelly, named after Princess Grace Kelly of Monaco, or the Birkin, because of a chance encounter with actress Jane Birkin.

其知名產品也有著傳奇的歷史，如 Kelly（以摩納哥格蕾絲-凱利王妃的名字命名）和 Birkin（因與女演員簡-伯金的偶遇而得名）。

Hermes was even the first to bring back the zipper from the U.S.

愛馬仕甚至是第一個從美國帶回拉鍊的品牌。

They spend a lot of time making the highest quality leathers, stitching, etc., but also paying close attention to the lifestyle of their customers.

他們花費大量時間製作最高品質的皮革、縫線等，同時也密切關注顧客的生活方式。

And that is where Hermes is just unparalleled, that combination of history, craftsmanship and awareness of what their customers, their wealthy customers, truly want.

這正是愛馬仕無與倫比的地方，它將歷史、工藝和對顧客--富裕顧客--真正需求的瞭解結合在一起。

The company doesn't partner with brand ambassadors and spends considerably less on advertising than its competitors.

該公司不與品牌大使合作，廣告支出也比競爭對手少得多。

When it comes to its most notable products, even the elite must have an in, cultivating a relationship with a sales associate and making several purchases just to be considered for a Kelly or Birkin.

說到其最著名的產品，即使是精英人士也必須 "打入內部"，與銷售人員建立良好的關係，並多次購買，才有可能被考慮購買 Kelly 或 Birkin。

There's only a limited amount released per year, with a quota attached to certain styles.

每年推出的數量有限，某些款式還有配額限制。

A client can only purchase two Birkin and Kelly purses per year, for example.

例如，客戶每年只能購買兩個 Birkin 和 Kelly 手袋。

When you're holding a Birkin bag, especially if it's a special limited edition, it's not just that you bought the bag, but people know that to get that bag, you've spent five, 10 times that.

當你拿著一隻 Birkin 手袋，尤其是特別限量版的時候，這不僅僅是你買了這隻手袋，而且人們知道，為了得到這隻手袋，你花了五倍、十倍的錢。

Hermes is a vertically integrated company that's still run by the founding family.

愛馬仕是一家垂直整合公司，仍由創始家族經營。

They always want to be building or making less than there is demand for.

他們總是希望建造或製造的產品少於需求。

So that's fewer stores, fewer handbags, fewer online sales than the market would otherwise purchase.

這樣一來，商店、手提包和網上銷售的數量都會比市場購買的數量少。

By making less than the market demands, they can smooth over and ride these cycles of ups and downs.

通過低於市場需求的利潤，他們可以平穩地度過這些起伏週期。

They're very keen to stick to what works and to their way of doing things.

他們非常熱衷於堅持自己的工作方式和方法。

Think about, for example, the streetwear revolution that has caught the industry by storm.

舉例來說，街頭服飾革命已經在業界掀起了一場風暴。

Now that it has been significantly abating, I guess that they have been right to stay true to their DNA.

現在，這種現象已經明顯減少，我想他們堅持自己的基因是對的。

While Hermes' store count is much smaller than its competitors, its revenue is substantially higher.

雖然愛馬仕的店鋪數量比競爭對手少得多，但收入卻高得多。

You could say that Hermes fights way above their weight when it comes to profit margins and growth and certainly status.

可以說，愛馬仕在利潤率、增長和地位方面都遠遠超過了他們的體重。

They are top of the industry, which is why Bernard Arnault made such a run for the company.

他們是行業中的佼佼者，這也是 Bernard Arnault 為公司做出巨大貢獻的原因。

The run Frank is referring to is the four-year legal battle between Hermes and LVMH CEO Bernard Arnault after he built a more than 20 percent stake in the company, becoming its largest stakeholder.

弗蘭克所說的 "跑路 "指的是愛馬仕與路威酩軒集團首席執行官伯納德-阿諾特（Bernard Arnault）之間長達四年的官司，因為阿諾特持有愛馬仕超過 20% 的股份，成為該公司最大的股東。

Today, LVMH holds no ownership, though the Arnault family owns just under 2 percent.

如今，LVMH 並未持有任何股份，但 Arnault 家族僅持有不到 2% 的股份。

A good measure for how much faith investors have in a company's future growth is its price-to-earnings ratio.

市盈率是衡量投資者對一家公司未來增長的信心程度的良好標準。

Hermes' is more than double that of several rivals.

愛馬仕的這一數字是幾個競爭對手的兩倍多。

In 2024's third quarter, Hermes saw double-digit revenue growth, while competitors like LVMH and Gucci owner Kering reported sharper-than-expected declines in sales.

2024 年第三季度，愛馬仕的收入實現了兩位數的增長，而 LVMH 集團和古馳（Gucci）所有者開雲集團（Kering）等競爭對手的銷售額卻出現了超預期的下滑。

The company's share price has risen almost 10 percent since the start of 2024.

自 2024 年開始以來，公司股價已上漲近 10%。

While LVMH and Kering declined 13 percent and 40 percent respectively.

而 LVMH 和 Kering 則分別下降了 13% 和 40%。

The luxury industry is going through a huge correction right now.

目前，奢侈品行業正在經歷一場巨大的調整。

You've had the aspirational consumer, those are people that aren't really wealthy but just like to splurge once in a while on a great handbag, pair of shoes, whatever.

你已經有了有追求的消費者，這些人其實並不富裕，只是喜歡偶爾奢侈一下，買個好皮包、一雙好鞋子什麼的。

Those customers have not disappeared but certainly faded away.

這些客戶沒有消失，但肯定會逐漸消失。

In its Q3 2024, it did see lower sales growth in all regions compared with the same quarter the prior year.

在 2024 年第三季度，該公司在所有地區的銷售增長與上年同期相比都有所下降。

The company noted in an earnings call that it was still facing lower traffic, but that customers were spending more money per transaction.

該公司在財報電話會議上指出，雖然流量仍在下降，但客戶每次交易的花費卻在增加。

The luxury goods industry could be in for a prolonged period of weakness.

奢侈品行業可能會長期處於疲軟狀態。

We've already seen it for a couple of semesters.

Hermes is still growing at double-digit rates.

愛馬仕仍在以兩位數的速度增長。

You could see some slowing though over the next year or so, depending on what happens in China, North America and in Europe.

不過，根據中國、北美和歐洲的情況，未來一年左右的增長速度可能會有所放緩。

Since 2019, luxury prices have increased by more than 30 percent.

自 2019 年以來，奢侈品價格上漲了 30% 以上。

The cost of Hermes' most popular model is now 16 percent higher.

現在，愛馬仕最受歡迎的款式的價格上漲了 16%。

In the past few years, their price increases have been more muted relative to their competitors, take Chanel, take Dior, take Vuitton.

在過去幾年裡，與香奈兒、迪奧和威登等競爭對手相比，它們的價格漲幅較為平緩。

This year, they have by far the most important contribution from pricing to the tune of 8 percent, which is definitely very handy in a year when the industry is confronted with a global cyclical slowdown.

今年，定價對該行業的貢獻最大，達到了 8%，這在該行業面臨全球週期性放緩的這一年無疑是非常有利的。

Keeping its products timeless is core to Hermes' identity.

保持產品的永恆性是愛馬仕的核心特徵。

And yet, they haven't really launched anything massively innovative aside from new materials, new looks to sort of traditional products.

然而，除了新材料和傳統產品的新外觀之外，他們還沒有真正推出任何大規模的創新產品。

And yes, those things are timeless and classic, and that's the look and the brand that they like to be.

是的，這些東西是永恆的經典，這就是他們喜歡的外觀和品牌。

But at some point, those timeless products may have seen their time.

但在某些時候，這些永恆的產品可能已經過時了。

They could establish more iconic products outside of leather goods.

他們可以在皮革製品之外打造更多標誌性產品。

I'm thinking of watches, for example, and to drive their own growth without any risk that there's cross-subsidization from one category to the other.

例如，我指的是手錶，它們可以推動自己的增長，而不會出現從一個類別到另一個類別交叉補貼的風險。

And there's always the risk that counterfeits pose, both from a reputational perspective as well as legal.

無論從聲譽還是法律角度來看，假冒產品都會帶來風險。

Fakes are a $4.5 trillion industry, and Hermes has spent millions in legal fees trying to fight them.

假貨是一個價值 4.5 萬億美元的產業，愛馬仕為打擊假貨花費了數百萬美元的法律費用。

Though the company's margins haven't been as affected by a decrease in spending by aspirational buyers, higher prices and long wait lists could push away even the most loyal.

雖然該公司的利潤率並沒有因為有追求的買家減少消費而受到影響，但較高的價格和較長的等待時間可能會把最忠實的買家趕走。

Falling share prices across the sector could be a sign of what's to come.

整個行業股價的下跌可能預示著未來會發生什麼。

Hermes also faces sustainability and ethical concerns tied to its use of wild animal skins.

愛馬仕還面臨著與使用野生動物皮有關的可持續性和道德問題。

Climate change could impact its supply chain for materials like Brazilian silk or European leather.

氣候變化可能會影響其巴西絲綢或歐洲皮革等材料的供應鏈。

While some deem that to be precisely the reason why the company has been so successful, it could also backfire.

有些人認為，這正是該公司如此成功的原因，但也可能適得其反。

A class action lawsuit filed March 2024 in California accused the company of forcing its customers to spend thousands before being able to buy a Birkin, alleging this violates antitrust law.

2024 年 3 月在加利福尼亞州提起的一項集體訴訟指控該公司強迫客戶花費數千美元才能購買 Birkin，稱這違反了反壟斷法。

Plaintiffs revised their suit with more details on October 14th, 2024, after the judge requested more proof for the case to proceed.

2024 年 10 月 14 日，在法官要求提供更多證據後，原告修改了他們的訴訟，並提供了更多細節。

Imagine any other business where you walk into a store and you say, here's $12,000.

想象一下，如果你走進一家商店，對店員說："這裡有 12000 美元。

And you say, OK, I'm going to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on scarves, on belts, on other bags, and then I'll be eligible to buy that.

然後你說，好吧，我要花幾十萬美元買圍巾、皮帶和其他包包，然後我就有資格買這些東西了。

So it's not just no, you can't have it, but you're gonna have to spend 10 times that just to be eligible to buy it.

是以，你不僅不能擁有它，還必須花 10 倍的錢才有資格購買。

我是說，這是一種狡猾的商業模式。

 It sounds insane to most people, but it is one of the keys to their success.

對大多數人來說，這聽起來很瘋狂，但卻是他們成功的關鍵之一。

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貴鬆鬆還是搶破頭要買！為什麼愛馬仕業績不斷增長，LV 和 Gucci 卻在下滑？ (Why Hermès Is Growing While LVMH And Gucci Decline)

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