These graphics show what's called the cone of uncertainty.

這些圖形顯示了所謂的不確定性錐。

It's the range of potential paths the center of a tropical storm could take.

這是熱帶風暴中心可能經過的路徑範圍。

It's often shortened to just the cone, or forecast cone.

通常簡稱為錐體或預報錐體。

It fans out like this because meteorologists can't know for sure which way the center will go.

之所以會出現這樣的扇形，是因為氣象學家無法確定中心會向哪個方向移動。

But these familiar diagrams leave out something that's super important for mapping how far-reaching a hurricane's impact area could be.

但是，這些我們熟知的圖表卻忽略了對繪製颶風影響範圍有多遠極其重要的東西。

They don't show what happens here.

他們沒有展示這裡發生的事情。

On the...

在...

Dirty side.

骯髒的一面

Dirty side.

骯髒的一面

Dirty side.

骯髒的一面

You don't want to be on this side of a hurricane as it starts to make landfall.

當颶風開始登陸時，你可千萬別站在颶風的這一邊。

Atlantic hurricanes like Milton, Helene, Katrina, ones in the Northern Hemisphere, rotate counterclockwise.

北半球的大西洋颶風，如米爾頓、海倫、卡特里娜，都是逆時針旋轉的。

The center of a hurricane is the eye, a relatively calm column of air that scientists still don't fully understand.

颶風的中心是颶風眼，這是一個相對平靜的氣柱，科學家們至今仍未完全弄清它的來龍去脈。

Around that is the eye wall.

周圍是眼牆。

This is the strongest part of the storm, where the fastest winds and highest concentrations of moisture are.

這是風暴最強的部分，也是風速最快、水汽最集中的地方。

Moving out from that are the rain bands, swirling winds and moisture that are very strong near the eye wall and weaken as they move to the outer edge of the hurricane.

從這裡向外移動的是雨帶、漩渦風和水汽，它們在眼壁附近非常強勁，向颶風外緣移動時逐漸減弱。

From above, a hurricane looks pretty symmetrical.

從高空俯瞰，颶風看起來非常對稱。

But the energy isn't distributed equally.

但能量並不是平均分配的。

Meteorologists divide a tropical cyclone into quadrants like this.

氣象學家將熱帶氣旋劃分為這樣的象限。

The right front, left front, left rear, and right rear.

右前、左前、左後和右後。

It's the right side of the storm, and particularly the right front quadrant, that's often considered the most dangerous.

風暴的右側，尤其是右前象限，通常被認為是最危險的。

We call this the dirty side.

我們稱之為 "骯髒的一面"。

But what actually makes the dirty side so dangerous?

但究竟是什麼讓骯髒的一面變得如此危險？

The dirty side of the storm is where the greatest winds, the greatest tornado risk, and crucially, the greatest storm surge and flooding usually occur.

風暴的骯髒一側通常是風力最大、龍捲風風險最大的地方，關鍵是風暴潮和洪水也最大。

That's because the winds here are moving in the same direction as the storm, combining their speeds, whereas the winds on the left side are moving in the opposite direction of the storm, which slows them down.

這是因為這裡的風與風暴的移動方向相同，是以速度加在一起，而左側的風與風暴的移動方向相反，是以速度減慢。

You can see the dirty side more clearly in radar images, like this one of Hurricane Katrina.

你可以從雷達影像中更清楚地看到骯髒的一面，比如這張卡特里娜颶風的影像。

Look how much stronger the winds inside the rain bands to the right of the eye are compared to the left.

看看眼睛右邊雨帶內的風力比左邊大多少。

One important thing to note, though, is that the right and left side of a storm is relative to the direction the storm is heading.

但需要注意的一點是，風暴的左右兩側是相對於風暴的前進方向而言的。

So in a northern-moving storm like Hurricane Katrina was, the dirty side, on the right, was to the east.

是以，在像卡特里娜颶風這樣向北移動的風暴中，右邊骯髒的一側就是東面。

But when Hurricane Laura was moving from east to west across the Atlantic in 2020, the forward-moving winds were more on top, to the north.

但是，當颶風勞拉在 2020 年自東向西橫穿大西洋時，前進的風更多是在頂部，也就是北面。

And for Milton, which was moving northeast, the right side of the storm was here, southeast of the eye.

至於向東北方向移動的 "米爾頓"，風暴的右側就在這裡，即風暴眼的東南方。

The track of the storm is key.

風暴的軌跡是關鍵。

Are you on the clean or the dirty side of the storm?

你是站在風暴中乾淨的那一邊，還是骯髒的那一邊？

Some of the worst damage and threat to human life during hurricanes is from storm surge, when the forward-moving winds of an approaching hurricane push seawater toward the shore, which causes major flooding before the storm even hits.

風暴潮是颶風來臨時向前移動的風將海水推向海岸，在風暴來臨前就造成了嚴重的洪災，對人類生命造成最嚴重的破壞和威脅。

These forecast storm surge maps from previous hurricanes show time and again that the most significant threat of storm surge is at the center of the storm, in the eyewall, and to its right, the dirty side.

以往颶風的風暴潮預報圖一再顯示，風暴潮的最大威脅位於風暴中心的眼球和右側，即骯髒的一面。

And storm surge in coastal areas isn't the only way the dirty side can bring on huge amounts of rainfall and deadly flooding.

沿海地區的風暴潮並不是骯髒的一面帶來大量降雨和致命洪水的唯一方式。

Helene's Path found western North Carolina sitting just to the right of its eye.

Helene's Path 發現北卡羅來納州西部就在它眼睛的右側。

And the forward-moving winds in that part of the storm pushed warm moisture up the southern Appalachian Mountains, leading to historic rainfall and catastrophic flooding hundreds of miles inland.

風暴中前行的風將溫暖的水汽推向阿巴拉契亞山脈南部，導致了歷史性的降雨和內陸數百英里的災難性洪水。

Which is why these forecast diagrams emphasizing the cone of uncertainty, tracking where the storm will move to but omitting the wider potential impact areas, can be misleading when taken on their own, particularly for people living to the right of where the center of the storm will hit.

這就是為什麼這些預報圖強調不確定性錐體，追蹤風暴將移動到哪裡，卻忽略了更廣泛的潛在影響區域，如果單看這些預報圖，就會產生誤導，尤其是對於生活在風暴中心右側的人們來說。

This is going to be where the potential impacts are still felt, even when Helene tracks within that forecast cone.

即使海倫娜在預報範圍內運行，這裡仍然會感受到潛在的影響。

Just look at this graphic from the New York Times showing power outages in the aftermath of Helene, and you can see how much more devastating it is to be on the right side of the storm rather than the left.

只要看看《紐約時報》的這幅顯示海倫颶風后停電情況的圖表，你就會明白，處於風暴右側比左側的破壞性有多大。

Thankfully, a lot of meteorologists do provide warnings about the dirty side.

值得慶幸的是，很多氣象學家都會就髒的一面發出警告。

And some are starting to add context to storm tracking graphics to include potential impact zones.

有些人開始在風暴跟蹤圖形中添加背景資訊，包括潛在的影響區域。

Like this one from Hurricane Helene, where you can see the impact zone reaching farther to the right than to the left.

比如這張海倫颶風的照片，你可以看到颶風影響區域向右延伸的距離比向左延伸的距離更遠。

As climate change warms our oceans, we'll continue to see tropical storms gather enormous amounts of power quickly, leading to more catastrophic flooding, property damage, and threats to human life, both along coasts and inland.

隨著氣候變化使我們的海洋變暖，我們將繼續看到熱帶風暴迅速聚集巨大的能量，導致沿海和內陸地區發生更多災難性洪水、財產損失並威脅人類生命。

And knowing which side of a future hurricane you're on will become even more essential.

知道自己處於未來颶風的哪一邊將變得更加重要。

Really quickly, before you go, we have something we're excited to tell you about.

真的很快，在你們走之前，我們有一件興奮的事情要告訴你們。

Vox has launched a membership program.

Vox 推出了會員計劃。

It's the best way to support our journalism.

這是支持我們新聞工作的最佳方式。

As a Vox member, you'll gain greater access to our award-winning newsroom and have your curiosity sparked by our new member-only benefits.

作為 Vox 會員，您將有更多機會訪問我們屢獲殊榮的新聞編輯室，我們新推出的會員專享福利將激發您的好奇心。

Please consider becoming a Vox member today.

請考慮今天就成為 Vox 會員。

Go to vox.com slash memberships to join.

請訪問 vox.com slash memberships 加入。