The world is, in many ways, organized in a nested system.

世界在許多方面都是一個嵌套系統。

And so we have nations, within those we have industries, within industries we have corporations, within those we have business units, within those we have teams, within the teams we have people, and within our people we have brains.

是以，我們有國家，在國家中我們有行業，在行業中我們有公司，在公司中我們有業務組織、部門，在業務組織、部門中我們有團隊，在團隊中我們有員工，在員工中我們有大腦。

And we're nested.

我們是嵌套的。

It turns out that, as I have, and my colleagues have tried to understand how business works, we've developed a set of theories.

事實證明，當我和我的同事們試圖瞭解商業是如何運作的時候，我們已經形成了一套理論。

And when I say a theory, what I mean is a statement of causality, an understanding of what causes what, and why.

當我說理論時，我指的是對因果關係的陳述，是對什麼導致什麼以及為什麼導致什麼的理解。

And some of you know some of the theories.

你們中有些人知道其中的一些理論。

Disruption is a theory, and what it asserts is that the mechanism that causes successful companies to fall is not that they're not at their work, but rather somebody comes in at the bottom of the market and moves up, and that's the mechanism, the pursuit of profit at the bottom of the market that makes success so hard to sustain.

顛覆是一種理論，它認為，導致成功企業衰落的機制並不是它們沒有做好本職工作，而是有人從市場底層殺入，並不斷向上攀升，而這正是市場底層追求利潤的機制，它讓成功難以為繼。

There's another theory called the theory of the preservation of modularity.

還有一種理論叫做模塊化保存理論。

And the theory of the preservation of modularity explains, among other things, why the euro doesn't work, and why SAP implementation systems are so difficult and complicated.

模塊化保存理論可以解釋歐元為何行不通，SAP 實施系統為何如此困難和複雜。

And there's another theory called jobs to be done.

還有一種理論叫做工作要做。

And what it asserts is that, you know, here's Clay.

它所宣稱的是，你知道，這就是克萊。

I have characteristics. I, unfortunately, am 60 years old now.

我有自己的特點。不幸的是，我已經 60 歲了。

I live in the suburbs. Five children, unfortunately, have all left and are living independently, and life has become boring.

我住在郊區。不幸的是，五個孩子都已離開，獨立生活，生活變得枯燥乏味。

But the fact that I have those characteristics doesn't cause me to go out and buy the New York Times.

但我有這些特點並不會讓我去買《紐約時報》。

There might be a correlation between my characteristics and the propensity to buy the New York Times, but the characteristics don't cause me to do anything.

我的特點與購買《紐約時報》的傾向之間可能存在相關性，但這些特點並不會導致我做任何事情。

What causes us to do something is there's a job that arises in our life, and we have to get the job done.

我們之所以要做某件事，是因為我們的生活中出現了一項工作，我們必須完成這項工作。

And what causes us to buy a product or service is we have to reach out and find something that can do the job and pull it into our lives.

促使我們購買產品或服務的原因是，我們必須伸出雙手，找到能夠完成任務的東西，並將其融入我們的生活。

And that's the causal mechanism behind a purchase, is understanding what's the job.

這就是購買背後的因果機制，也就是了解什麼是工作。

And the insight there is that the customer is the wrong unit of analysis.

其中的啟示是，客戶是錯誤的分析組織、部門。

It's the job that we need to understand.

我們需要了解的是工作。

So these are all theories, and some of you know those and a number of others from our research.

是以，這些都是理論，你們中的一些人知道這些理論，還有我們研究中的其他一些理論。

What we have learned, and inadvertently in many ways, is that these statements of causality apply at every stage in this nested system.

我們在許多方面無意中瞭解到，這些因果關係的陳述適用於這個嵌套系統的每一個階段。

And so the theories help us understand why nations lose their competitiveness, why Japan was so successful and then died, for example, and why America finds it so hard to regain our momentum.

是以，這些理論有助於我們理解為什麼國家會失去競爭力，為什麼日本曾經如此成功，但後來卻滅亡了，以及為什麼美國很難重振雄風。

And that goes all the way down to the point of teams.

這一點一直延伸到團隊。

Well, a number of years ago in my course at the Harvard Business School, in this course we study these theories, try to understand them, then put these theories on like a set of lenses and examine companies or economies or industries and try to understand, can we understand why things are happening the way they're happening and what actions would lead to what results.

若干年前，我在哈佛商學院開設了一門課程，在這門課程中，我們研究這些理論，試圖理解這些理論，然後把這些理論戴上一副鏡片，審視公司、經濟或行業，並試圖理解，我們能否理解事情為什麼會以這樣的方式發生，以及什麼樣的行動會導致什麼樣的結果。

At the end of the course on the last day, rather than asking them to just put on these lenses and examine yet another company, I ask them to look in the mirror and ask them, can you explain why your life is the way it is today because of these theories?

在課程結束的最後一天，我沒有讓他們戴上這些鏡片去審視另一家公司，而是讓他們照照鏡子，問他們：你能解釋一下為什麼你的生活會變成今天這樣，是因為這些理論嗎？

And can you predict what will happen in your life if you continue to do what you are now doing?

如果你繼續像現在這樣做，你能預測你的人生會發生什麼嗎？

And it's been a remarkable experience to see the students come back on the last day of class and with causal theories as the explanation, what they need to change in their lives so that their life will be the life that they hope to live.

看到學生們在課堂的最後一天回來，用因果理論來解釋他們需要改變的生活，從而使他們的生活成為他們所希望的生活，這真是一種非凡的體驗。

And I thought I'd just offer a couple of these in the hopes that as entrepreneurs and ambitious people, you end up living the life that you hope you will live.

我想我只想提供其中幾條，希望作為企業家和雄心勃勃的人，你們最終能過上自己希望的生活。

So one of the things we observed, as I mentioned, is that what kills successful companies is somebody comes in at the bottom of the market.

是以，正如我提到的，我們觀察到的一個現象是，成功公司的致命傷是有人在市場最底層介入。

If you go back a few years ago in telecommunications, the darlings of the industry were Lucent and Nortel, made circuit switching technology.

回溯幾年前的電信業，當時的寵兒是採用電路交換技術的朗訊（Lucent）和北電網絡（Nortel）。

And this rusty little or small company, not very consequential, called Cisco emerged.

於是，這家生疏的小公司，或者說小公司，出現了，它叫思科。

And their technology, the router, wasn't good enough to be used in voice.

他們的路由器技術還不夠好，無法用於語音領域。

But they deployed it at the bottom of the market with data and then went up market and ultimately killed Lucent and Nortel.

但他們在市場底層部署了數據，然後進入市場上層，最終扼殺了朗訊和北電網絡。

And the reason why is that when they looked down at the router, the router on every dimension wasn't as good.

原因是，當他們低頭看路由器時，路由器的各個維度都沒有那麼好。

And so they kept making better and better circuit switch devices.

於是，他們不斷製造出更好的電路開關設備。

And we ask ourselves, I wonder who decided at Lucent that they should go out and get killed?

我們捫心自問，不知道朗訊是誰決定讓他們出去送死的？

And when was the date on which they decided they would get killed?

他們決定被殺的日期是什麼時候？

And the answer, of course, is that nobody made the decision.

當然，答案是沒有人做出決定。

In fact, what happened is all the individual people in a very successful organization did everything right.

事實上，在一個非常成功的組織中，所有人都做得很好。

But because they did all of these things independently and what made sense in those circumstances, when it's summed up, it's summed up to disaster.

但是，由於他們獨立完成了所有這些事情，而在當時的情況下，什麼才是合理的，總結起來，就是災難。

Well, the reason why it sums up to disaster is they're trying to maximize their profitability.

那麼，之所以總結起來是災難，是因為他們想最大限度地提高利潤率。

And typically, the way you calculate profitability, the investments that pay off tomorrow go to the bottom line and are much more tangible than investments that pay off ten years from now.

通常情況下，在計算盈利能力時，明天就能見效的投資會比十年後才見效的投資更實在。

Well, when I go back to my graduating classes,

好吧，等我回到畢業班再說、

I graduated from the MBA program at Harvard in 1979.

1979 年，我從哈佛大學 MBA 項目畢業。

We have a reunion every five years.

我們每五年舉行一次同學聚會。

When we came back for our fifth reunion, man, everybody was happy.

當我們回來參加第五次同學聚會時，每個人都很開心。

Most of our classmates had married people who were much better looking than my classmates.

我們大多數同學都嫁給了比我同學漂亮得多的人。

They're doing well in their career.

他們的事業發展得很好。

But as we hit the 10th and 15th and 20th and then the 25th anniversaries, oh my gosh, my friends were coming back not happy with their lives.

但是，當我們迎來 10 週年、15 週年、20 週年和 25 週年紀念日時，我的天哪，我的朋友們回來了，他們對自己的生活並不滿意。

And very many of them had gotten divorced.

他們中的很多人都離婚了。

Their spouses had remarried and they were raising my classmates' children on the other side of the country, alienated from them.

他們的配偶已經再婚，他們在國家的另一端撫養我同學的孩子，與他們疏遠。

And I guarantee that none of my classmates ever planned when they graduated from the business school to go out and get divorced and have children who hate their guts and are being raised by other children.

我敢保證，我的同學們從商學院畢業時，沒有一個人打算出去離婚，生下恨他們入骨的孩子，由其他孩子撫養。

And yet a very large portion of my classmates actually implemented a strategy that they never planned to do.

然而，我的很大一部分同學實際上實施了他們從未計劃過的策略。

And it turns out that the reason why they do that is the very same mechanism and that is the pursuit of achievement.

事實證明，他們這樣做的原因是相同的，那就是追求成就。

So we all, everybody here is driven to achieve.

是以，我們大家，這裡的每個人都有實現目標的動力。

And when you have an extra ounce of energy or 30 minutes of time, instinctively and unconsciously, you'll allocate it to whatever activities in your life give you the most immediate evidence of achievement.

當你有多餘的精力或 30 分鐘的時間時，你會本能地或不自覺地將其分配給生活中能給你帶來最直接成就感的活動。

And our careers provide that immediate evidence of achievement.

而我們的職業生涯則是取得成就的直接證據。

We close a sale, we ship a product, we finish a presentation, we close a deal, we get promoted, we get paid.

我們完成一次銷售、運送一件產品、完成一次演示、達成一筆交易、獲得晉升、得到報酬。

Our careers provide the most very tangible immediate achievement.

我們的職業提供了最切實的直接成就。

In contrast, investments in our families don't pay off for a very long time.

相比之下，對家庭的投資在很長一段時間內都不會有回報。

In fact, on a day-to-day basis, our children misbehave over and over again.

事實上，在日常生活中，我們的孩子一次又一次地行為不端。

And it really isn't until 20 years down the road that you can look at your children and be able to put your hands on your hips and say, we raised great children.

直到 20 年後，你才能看著自己的孩子，雙手叉腰說："我們養育了優秀的孩子"。

But on a day-to-day basis, achievement doesn't at hand when we invest in relationships with our family, with our children and our spouses.

但在日常生活中，當我們投資於與家人、孩子和配偶的關係時，成就並不唾手可得。

And as a consequence, people like you and I who plan to have a happy life because our families truly are the deepest source of happiness in our lives, find that although that's what we want, the way we invest our time and energy and talents causes us to implement a strategy that we wouldn't at all plan to pursue.

是以，像你我這樣打算過上幸福生活的人，因為家庭確實是我們生命中最深層的幸福源泉，卻發現雖然這正是我們想要的，但我們投入時間、精力和才能的方式卻讓我們實施了根本不打算實施的策略。

And so I wanted to just offer that one as something to think about.

是以，我只想提出這一點，供大家思考。

The reason why successful companies fail is they invest in things that provide the most immediate and tangible evidence of achievement.

成功的公司之所以失敗，是因為他們投資於那些能提供最直接、最具體成就證據的事物。

And the reason why they have such a short time horizon is that they are run by people like you and I.

它們之所以時間跨度這麼短，是因為它們是由像你我這樣的人經營的。

And we then apply that very same thinking process in our personal lives with sad results.

然後，我們把同樣的思維過程應用到個人生活中，結果卻令人痛心。

Let me just offer another thought that might be useful.

讓我再提出一個可能有用的想法。

I was driving to work a number of years ago early.

幾年前，我早早地開車去上班。

And when I was on Huron Avenue in Cambridge,

而當我在劍橋的休倫大道上、

I just had a feeling that something important was going to happen to Clay Christensen, that I was going to be given a much more consequential business opportunity than I have just as a plain old professor.

我有一種預感，克雷-克里斯坦森將會遇到一些重要的事情，我將獲得一個比普通教授更重要的商業機會。

And a couple of weeks later, somebody who was in that position announced that he was leaving, and I put two and two together and decided, gosh, it sounds like for whatever reason I just had this feeling that I'm going to be his replacement.

幾周後，在那個位置上的某個人宣佈他要離開，我一想，天哪，不管出於什麼原因，我好像有種感覺，我將成為他的接班人。

So the day came and they chose another person.

於是，這一天到來了，他們選擇了另一個人。

And I wondered, why did I have that feeling that an important thing was going to happen to me?

我在想，為什麼我會有這種感覺，覺得有一件重要的事情要發生在我身上？

Did the people kind of lose guts? I don't know.

人們是不是失去了勇氣？我不知道。

But I wrestled with how will they measure Clay Christensen's life?

但我糾結的是，他們將如何衡量克萊-克里斯滕森的一生？

If they're going to not make me the leader of a large institution, how do I know whether my life has been worth living?

如果他們不打算讓我成為一個大機構的上司，我怎麼知道我的人生是否有價值？

And again, how will I measure my life?

同樣，我將如何衡量自己的人生？

And I realized that I studied this for a long time.

我意識到，我研究了很長時間。

And I reached the strangest conclusion that God doesn't employ accountants or statisticians.

我得出了一個最奇怪的結論：上帝不會僱用會計或統計人員。

And what I mean by that is because you and I have finite minds, when we try to understand what's going on in the world, we have to aggregate things.

我的意思是，因為你我的思維都是有限的，當我們試圖理解世界上發生的事情時，我們必須把事情彙總起來。

So in your companies, you can't keep track of every individual invoice, and so you have to aggregate all those up so that you have receivables and payables and revenues.

是以，在你的公司裡，你不可能跟蹤每一張發票，所以你必須把所有發票彙總起來，這樣你就有了應收賬款、應付賬款和收入。

You can't keep track of every element of cost, and so you have to aggregate all that up into total cost categories, and then you subtract that from this, and there's a number.

你不可能跟蹤每一個成本要素，是以你必須將所有成本彙總到總成本類別中，然後將其從這個類別中減去，就得出了一個數字。

And that's the way we try to understand the world, is because we have limited minds, we have to aggregate things up.

這就是我們試圖理解世界的方式，因為我們的思維有限，我們必須把事情彙總起來。

And then we'll look at that number compared to last year's number, and if it's better, then we say we're doing better.

然後，我們會將這一數字與去年的數字進行比較，如果結果更好，我們就會說我們做得更好。

And that's the way we look at the world, because of our minds.

這就是我們看待世界的方式，因為我們有思想。

And it has then another interesting effect on us, and that is because we have to aggregate, we get a sense of hierarchy in the world.

這對我們產生了另一種有趣的影響，那就是因為我們必須聚集在一起，我們會在世界上產生一種等級感。

In other words, people who are higher up in larger organizations are more important than people who preside over fewer numbers of people and fewer numbers down the road, down the bottom.

換句話說，在較大的組織中，職位較高的人要比主持工作的人數較少、職位較低的人更重要。

And so we get this sense that people who achieve in a hierarchical sense, their lives will be judged somehow as better, having lived, than those below.

是以，我們會有這樣一種感覺，即在等級意義上取得成就的人，他們的生活會在某種程度上被評判為比下面的人生活得更好。

And we measure sometimes how high we go or how successful we are by how much money we make.

有時，我們會用賺多少錢來衡量我們走得有多高或有多成功。

But these are all the result of our having limited minds and their having to aggregate measures of success.

但是，這些都是我們的思維有限，不得不把成功的標準綜合起來的結果。

And this choice of measurement is actually a big deal.

而這種測量方法的選擇其實很重要。

In a company, for example, if you measure profitability by return on net assets, that's a ratio.

以公司為例，如果用淨資產收益率來衡量盈利能力，這就是一個比率。

Sure, you could be innovative, develop successful new products, and take that profitability and stick it into the numerator of the ratio.

當然，你可以勇於創新，開發出成功的新產品，並將這種盈利能力納入比率的分子中。

But you could also reduce the denominator of the ratio by outsourcing everything.

不過，你也可以通過外包一切來減少比率的分母。

And the ratio doesn't matter whether you build it from the top or subtract from the bottom.

無論是從上往下建，還是從下往上減，比例都沒有關係。

If profitability is measured by return on net assets, it causes us to manage it in a particular way.

如果以淨資產收益率來衡量盈利能力，就會促使我們以特定的方式進行管理。

And in a similar way, if we follow our professor's advices from finance and we measure profitability on innovation in terms of internal rate of return or IRR, it's a ratio.

同樣，如果我們按照金融學教授的建議，用內部收益率（IRR）來衡量創新的盈利能力，這是一個比率。

And sure, you could get the ratio up by being successful with innovation, but you also could get that measure up by only investing in short-term projects.

當然，你可以通過成功創新來提高這一比例，但你也可以通過只投資短期項目來提高這一比例。

And it's just a long way of saying, be careful in how you measure profitability in your company.

這只是一種長話短說的方式，要小心衡量公司的盈利能力。

So how do you measure the success of your life?

那麼，如何衡量自己的人生是否成功呢？

And as I mentioned, it's because we have to aggregate.

正如我提到的，這是因為我們必須彙總。

We have this sense of hierarchy, wealth, and so on.

我們有等級意識、財富意識等等。

But the reason I concluded that God doesn't employ accountants is He has an infinite mind.

但我得出結論，上帝之所以不僱傭會計，是因為他有無限的思想。

And what that means, He doesn't have to aggregate up above the level of individual people in order to have a perfect understanding of what's going on in this world.

這意味著，祂不需要超越個人的層次，就能對這個世界上發生的事情瞭如指掌。

And when I realized that, that He doesn't have to aggregate up above the level of individuals, then I realized, oh my goodness.

當我意識到這一點，意識到祂並不一定要聚集到個人的層次之上時，我才意識到，我的天哪。

When I have my interview with God at the end of my life,

當我在生命的最後時刻與上帝面談時、

He's not going to ask to show me how high I went in anybody's org chart or how much money I left behind in the bank when I died.

他不會讓我看我在誰的組織結構圖上排第幾，也不會讓我看我死後在銀行裡留下了多少錢。

But rather He's going to say, oh Clay, I put you in that circumstance.

相反，祂會說，哦，克萊，是我把你放在那個環境中的。

Now can we talk about the individual people whose lives you helped to become better people because you worked with them or they were members of your family or you just met them and they needed your help.

現在，我們能不能談談那些你幫助過的人，因為你與他們共事，或者他們是你的家人，或者你剛剛認識他們，他們需要你的幫助，他們的生活變得更加美好。

And then Clay, I stuck you in this situation.

然後克萊，我把你困在了這種情況下。

Now let's talk about the individual people whose lives you blessed because you used the talents I gave you to help them.

現在，讓我們來談談那些你用我給你的才能幫助了他們，從而使他們的生活得到祝福的人。

And I realized that that's the way God will measure my life, is the individual people whose lives I blessed.

我意識到，這就是上帝衡量我生命的方式，是我祝福過的每一個人的生命。

And I just want to offer that as the second takeaway from at least what Clay Christensen is thinking about.

我只想把這一點作為克萊-克里斯滕森思考的第二個啟示。

And that is it's actually really important that you succeed at what you're succeeding at.

這就是，你能在自己擅長的領域取得成功其實非常重要。

But that isn't going to be the measure of your life.

但這並不是衡量你人生的標準。

God doesn't count.

上帝不算數。

He doesn't aggregate.

他不聚合。

And He's just going to assess you on the basis of how well you helped other people be better people.

祂會根據你幫助他人成為更好的人的程度來評估你。

Well, God bless you.

上帝保佑你

I hope that some of these ideas will be helpful to you and that you will be successful in the way that God will measure success.

我希望其中的一些想法會對你有所幫助，並希望你能以上帝衡量成功的方式取得成功。

Thank you.

謝謝。