That phrase, secure our border, appears at least 10 times in the 2024 Democratic Party platform.

在 2024 年民主黨黨綱中，「確保我們的邊境安全」這句話至少出現了 10 次。

It's a major shift from 2020, where the phrase doesn't appear even once.

與 2020 年相比，這是一個重大轉變，在 2020 年，這句話甚至一次都沒有出現過。

Harris and the Democratic Party have adopted a stricter stance on the border, as voters have soured on immigration levels.

賀錦麗民主黨在邊境問題上採取了更嚴格的立場，因為選民們對移民水準感到失望。

Democrats don't like seeing chaos at the southwest border any more than Republicans.

民主黨人比共和黨人更不希望看到西南邊境出現混亂。

But at the same time, Republicans' opposition to immigration has reached a high.

但與此同時，共和黨人對移民的反對也達到了高潮。

The greatest invasion in history is taking place right here in our country.

歷史上最大規模的入侵就發生在我們國家。

Here's why both parties, and the electorate, are looking for stricter border policies, and what that means for November.

以下是兩黨和選民都在尋求更嚴格的邊境政策的原因，以及這對 11 月選舉意味著什麼。

One reason behind the change in rhetoric is a change in which policies voters say they want.

言論變化背後的一個原因是選民表示他們想要的政策發生了變化。

Let's look at four popular immigration proposals.

讓我們來看看四項廣受歡迎的移民提案。

Before the 2020 election, Democrats favored pathways to citizenship, while Republicans favored more restrictive policies like expanding the wall.

在 2020 年大選之前，民主黨人傾向於公民入籍途徑，而共和黨人則傾向於擴大隔離牆等限制性更強的政策。

Both parties viewed hiring more border agents favorably.

雙方都對僱傭更多邊境人員持積極態度。

This year, those views have shifted.

今年，這些觀點發生了轉變。

While even more Republicans want to see an expanded wall and more deportation, Democrats are also seeing those proposals slightly more favorably.

雖然有更多的共和黨人希望看到擴建隔離牆和增加遞解出境人數，但民主黨人也對這些提議略有好感。

Even as they still want pathways to citizenship.

即使他們仍然希望有途徑獲得公民身份。

A lot of these policies that people indicate they're supportive of are pretty directly contradictory to each other.

人們表示支持的很多政策都是相互矛盾的。

And ultimately, if I had to guess what that means, it just means that people are looking at this issue and saying, it's been so broken for so long, I just need my politicians to try something to fix it.

歸根結底，如果讓我猜猜這意味著什麼，那只是意味著人們在看待這個問題時會說，這個問題已經被破壞了這麼久，我只需要我的政治家們試著做些什麼來解決它。

So why the shift over the last four years?

那麼，為什麼在過去的四年裡發生了轉變？

To start, border crossings have increased nearly five-fold after low numbers at the beginning of the pandemic.

首先，在新冠疫情初期，過境人數很少，而現在則增加了近五倍。

Many people seeking a form of legal protection called asylum.

許多人在尋求一種名為庇護的法律保護。

And the backlog of asylum cases has been growing.

積壓的庇護案件也在不斷增加。

I believe the asylum system is broken.

我認為庇護制度已經崩潰。

And my constituents, whether they be right or left, believe the asylum system is broken.

我的選民，無論左派還是右派，都認為庇護制度已經崩潰。

Senator Chris Murphy chairs a subcommittee that oversees funding for homeland security.

克里斯-墨菲參議員是負責監督國土安全資金的小組委員會主席。

The asylum system inside the United States is so overwhelmed that it often takes five to 10 years for those asylum claims to be processed.

美國國內的庇護系統不堪重負，這些庇護申請往往需要五到十年的時間才能得到處理。

That broken system became an incentive for people who didn't actually have legitimate asylum claims to come to the United States because they essentially knew that they could stay here for years, maybe even a decade, before anybody found out that they didn't have a valid claim.

這種殘缺不全的制度刺激了那些實際上沒有合法庇護申請的人來到美國，因為他們基本上知道，在任何人發現他們沒有合法申請之前，他們可以在這裡待上幾年，甚至十年。

In 2022, border cities started busing migrants to blue-lead sanctuary cities like Denver, New York, D.C. and Chicago, which struggled to provide enough housing and other resources.

2022 年，邊境城市開始向丹佛、紐約、華盛頓特區和芝加哥等藍領庇護城市運送移民，這些城市努力提供足夠的住房和其他資源。

This issue will destroy New York City.

這個問題將摧毀紐約市。

Once word spreads that, by the way, there's a free bus for you to New York, New York is also going to provide you free shelter for basically as long as you need it.

一旦消息傳開，順便說一句，有一輛免費巴士供你們去紐約，只要你們需要，紐約也會為你們提供免費的庇護所。

New York was like, well, I mean, yeah, we have a right to shelter, but we don't have any more shelters.

紐約就像在說，是的，我們有避難的權利，但我們沒有更多的避難所了。

And so that's why I think this came to the forefront in those places where it maybe wouldn't have otherwise.

我認為這就是為什麼在那些可能不會出現這種情況的地方，這件事被推到了風口浪尖。

While some measures enacted by the Biden administration have started to bring crossings down, the surge is part of why Murphy says Democrats are prioritizing border security.

雖然拜登政府採取的一些措施已經開始減少越境人數，但墨菲說，越境人數激增是民主黨人優先考慮邊境安全的部分原因。

At the center of Harris' proposed policy is reviving a bill that House Republicans voted down earlier this year.

賀錦麗提出的政策核心是恢復眾議院共和黨人今年早些時候否決的一項法案。

And so even though Donald Trump tried to sabotage the border security bill, it is my pledge to you that as president of the United States, I will bring it back up and proudly sign it into law.

所以儘管川普試圖破壞邊境安全法案，但我向你們承諾，作為美國總統，我將重新提出該法案，並自豪地將其簽署成為法律。

It's really central to Democratic messaging because for years, the Democrats under Biden have been being blamed as the source of all the problems on the border.

這確實是民主黨傳遞信息的核心，因為多年來，拜登上司下的民主黨一直被指責為邊境所有問題的根源。

And this was the first time where they were able to say, actually, we're the party of solutions.

這是他們第一次能夠說，實際上，我們是解決問題的政黨。

Murphy was the bill's Democratic negotiator.

墨菲是該法案的民主黨談判代表。

There is much more talk in the Democratic Party of welcoming people to this country, but Democrats want to welcome to this country in a legal way.

民主黨內有更多關於歡迎人們來到這個國家的言論，但民主黨人希望以合法的方式歡迎人們來到這個國家。

The bill included resources to help speed up the asylum process and limit the number of people who could claim it.

該法案包括幫助加快庇護程序和限制申請庇護人數的資源。

And it included traditionally conservative policies like funding to build the wall.

其中包括傳統的保守政策，如撥款修建隔離牆。

As somebody who worked very closely on the 2013 bipartisan bill, I couldn't believe how many concessions the Democrats gave to Republicans.

作為一個曾密切參與 2013 年兩黨法案的人，我簡直不敢相信民主黨人對共和黨人做出了多少讓步。

Alex Conant was formerly the communications director for Senator Marco Rubio.

亞歷克斯-科南特曾任參議員馬可-魯比奧的通訊主任。

Every time the Democrats in 2013 gave us a little bit of border security, we had to give concessions on what to do with undocumented immigrants in the country in terms of giving them some sort of legal status, ultimately a pathway to citizenship.

每當民主黨在2013年為我們提供一點點邊境安全保障時，我們就不得不在如何處理國內無證移民的問題上做出讓步，給予他們某種合法身份，最終為他們提供一條入籍之路。

There was none of that in the 2024 bill.

2024 年法案中沒有這些內容。

Harris has said she plans on addressing pathways to citizenship in addition to passing the border security bill.

賀錦麗表示，除了通過邊境安全法案外，她還計劃解決入籍途徑問題。

Sort of going moderate on the issue of immigration is a great way for Democrats to signal the that they are moderate on other issues as well.

在移民問題上採取溫和態度是民主黨人發出信號的好方法，表明他們在其他問題上也是溫和的。

More restrictive policies appeal to a more middle ground section of the electorate and are popular with more moderate Democrats.

限制性更強的政策吸引了更多中間選民，也受到更溫和的民主黨人的歡迎。

For Trump, immigration has been a winning issue.

對川普來說，移民問題一直是一個制勝法寶。

His policies lean heavily on increasing deportation and building a wall, stances that have built on his proposals from 2016 and 2020, and that are viewed favorably by his most staunch supporters.

他的政策在很大程度上傾向於加大驅逐力度和修建隔離牆，這些立場建立在他 2016 年和 2020 年提案的基礎上，也得到了他最堅定支持者的青睞。

I think one of the things Donald Trump does on immigration is he approaches it from a lot of different angles.

我認為川普在移民問題上所做的事情之一就是從很多不同的角度來處理這個問題。

He talks about immigrants taking American jobs.

他說移民搶走了美國人的工作。

He also talks about it from a criminal perspective.

他還從犯罪的角度談了這個問題。

I don't think that's held up in a lot of statistics, but when you look at voters who are concerned about crime and then they see these stories about illegal immigrants causing the crimes, I think Trump's crackdown is something that appeals to them.

我不認為這在很多統計數字中成立，但當你看到那些關注犯罪問題的選民看到這些關於非法移民導致犯罪的故事時，我認為川普的打擊行動對他們有吸引力。

In the most recent debate, Trump mentioned immigration or the border in his responses to questions on the economy.

在最近一次辯論中，川普在回答有關經濟的問題時提到了移民或邊境問題。

And they're coming in and they're taking jobs.

他們來了，搶走了工作。

Tariffs.

關稅。

Well, bad immigration is the worst thing that can happen to our economy.

對我們的經濟來說，糟糕的移民是最糟糕的事情。

January 6th.

1月6日。

I ask, what about all the people that are pouring into our country and killing people?

我想問，那些湧入我國殺人的人怎麼辦？

And election integrity.

還有選舉的公正性。

And a lot of these illegal immigrants coming in, they're trying to get them to vote.

這些非法移民中的很多人都想參加投票。

I think Donald Trump has redefined what it means to be a Republican and on no issue is that more apparent than on immigration, where the party is far more skeptical of legal immigration, far more concerned about illegal immigration now than it's ever been in the past.

我認為川普重新定義了共和黨的含義，在移民問題上，這一點比以往任何時候都更加明顯，共和黨現在比以往任何時候都更加懷疑合法移民，更加關注非法移民。

But Trump's rhetoric does risk alienating voters who may be on the fence.

但川普的言論確實有可能疏遠那些可能持觀望態度的選民。

In Springfield, they're eating the dogs, the people that came in, they're eating the cats.

在斯普林菲爾德，它們在吃狗，進來的人在吃貓。

When you talk about immigrants eating dogs and cats without any evidence, that's crazy.

在沒有任何證據的情況下就說移民吃貓吃狗，這太瘋狂了。

And so I think to the extent that he can get off track and go too far on even an issue as winnable as immigration,

我認為，如果他在移民問題上偏離正軌、太超過，

that's a challenge for his campaign because it does turn off the moderate Republicans and independent voters who like his underlying policies but have Democrats also risk going too far in trying to appease voters.

這對他的競選是一個挑戰，因為這確實會讓溫和派共和黨人和喜歡他基本政策的獨立選民感到失望，但民主黨人也有可能為了安撫選民而走得太遠。

There is a sort of very vocal immigrant rights community on the left, but so far you haven't actually seen many of those immigrant rights folks break with Kamala or the Democrats in a way that some, let's say on the issue of Gaza and the war in Israel have.

左翼有一個移民權利團體，但到目前為止，你還沒有看到許多移民權利人士與卡馬拉或民主黨決裂，比如在加沙和以色列戰爭問題上。

I think that they have sort of recognized this is a really tough issue and when we have two choices, this is the better of the two.

我認為，他們已經認識到這是一個非常棘手的問題，當我們有兩個選擇時，這是兩個選擇中較好的一個。

For Harris especially, these stricter policies could appeal to independents, who make up a majority of undecided voters right now.

特別是對賀錦麗來說，這些更嚴格的政策可能會吸引無黨派人士，而無黨派人士目前佔未決選民的大多數。

It's a delicate balance for Kamala because she can't just be tough on the border, right?

這對賀錦麗來說是一個微妙的平衡，因為她不能只在邊境問題上強硬，對嗎？

Polling shows that most Americans actually want to hear a sort of split message that we're going to be tough, but we're also going to be generous to people who deserve our generosity.

民調顯示，大多數美國人實際上希望聽到一種分裂的資訊，即我們會強硬，但我們也會慷慨地對待值得我們慷慨的人。