A lot of investors have strong opinions about Palantir stock one way or another, but how much is Palantir stock really worth?

很多投資者對 Palantir 的股票有這樣或那樣的強烈看法，但 Palantir 的股票到底值多少錢？

I'm going to answer that question in this video by conducting a discounted cash flow analysis of Palantir stock, evaluating the company's growth of free cash flows over the next five years, discounting them today, and applying a valuation to determine how much I think Palantir's intrinsic value is worth.

在本視頻中，我將通過對 Palantir 股票進行現金流貼現分析來回答這個問題，評估該公司未來五年自由現金流的增長情況，將其貼現到現在，並應用估值來確定我認為 Palantir 的內在價值是多少。

Now this example provides a very interesting learning experience.

現在，這個例子提供了一個非常有趣的學習體驗。

I love when these cases come up when conducting a discounted cash flow analysis, when my discounted intrinsic value differs so greatly from the current market price, because that allows us to look at why there is that big difference and evaluate what assumptions are creating that difference.

我喜歡在進行貼現現金流分析時遇到這些情況，當我的貼現內在價值與當前市場價格相差如此之大時，因為這可以讓我們研究為什麼會出現如此大的差異，並評估是什麼假設造成了這種差異。

So without further ado, let's take a look.

話不多說，讓我們一起來看看吧。

I want to thank The Motley Fool for sponsoring this video.

感謝 The Motley Fool 贊助本視頻。

Visit fool.com slash parkev for the 10 best stocks to buy now.

請訪問 fool.com slash parkev，查看現在最值得購買的 10 只股票。

All right, so here we have my Palantir discounted cash flow model, but before I get into the details of the numbers, let me share with you where I'm getting all of the numbers from.

好了，這就是我的 Palantir 貼現現金流模型，但在我介紹數字細節之前，請允許我與大家分享一下我的所有數字來源。

So from Y charts, I got Palantir Technologies average diluted shares outstanding of $2.415 billion and the current market price of $39.26 for Palantir stock.

是以，從 Y 圖中，我得出 Palantir Technologies 平均攤薄後流通股為 24.15 億美元，Palantir 股票當前市價為 39.26 美元。

I also pulled Palantir's trailing 12-month free cash flow of $696.41 million.

我還調出了 Palantir 追溯 12 個月的自由現金流 6.9641 億美元。

This is where I will start my cash flow forecast, my free cash flow forecast for Palantir for the next five years.

我將從這裡開始預測 Palantir 未來五年的現金流和自由現金流。

Now, I also got Palantir's growth rate expectations for earnings per share for the next five years from Yahoo Finance and the analysts on Wall Street that are following Palantir stock.

現在，我還從雅虎財經和關注 Palantir 股票的華爾街分析師那裡獲得了 Palantir 未來五年的每股收益增長率預期。

They expect its earnings per share will grow by 57.64% over the next five years.

他們預計，未來五年，該公司的每股收益將增長 57.64%。

Now, I'm going to use that growth rate to forecast Palantir's free cash over the next five years, and already you see one of the challenges of creating this type of discounted cash flow valuation.

現在，我要用這個增長率來預測 Palantir 未來五年的自由現金流，你已經看到了創建這種貼現現金流估值的挑戰之一。

I'm using an earnings per share forecast and using that for my free cash flow forecast.

我使用的是每股收益預測，並以此來預測自由現金流。

So it's an imprecise forecast.

是以，這是一個不精確的預測。

Everything when you're looking to the future is imprecise, but like Warren Buffett says, I'd rather be approximately right instead of precisely wrong.

展望未來，一切都是不精確的，但正如沃倫-巴菲特所說，我寧願大致正確，而不是精確錯誤。

So I tend to use generalities and I'll share with you the differences I'm using where I'm getting the numbers from to be transparent and so you can tell what's going on and make your own conclusion whether or not the numbers I'm using are accurate or too optimistic or too pessimistic.

是以，我傾向於使用概括性的數據，我會與你們分享我所使用的數據的不同之處，以便做到透明，這樣你們就能知道發生了什麼，並自己得出結論，我所使用的數據是準確還是過於樂觀或過於悲觀。

Whatever you might feel, I'm going to share with you where I'm getting the numbers so you can come to your own conclusions.

無論你怎麼想，我都會與你分享我的數據來源，這樣你就可以得出自己的結論。

All right, so here we go.

好了，我們開始吧。

Let's start with 2024 free cash flows here for Palantir.

我們先來看看 Palantir 2024 年的自由現金流。

I told you I got this number from YCharts. 696 million in free cash flow for Palantir in 2024, and I forecasted their free cash flows out for the next five years using the growth rate that I got from Yahoo Finance from the analysts on Wall Street that are following Palantir's stock of 57.64%.

我告訴過你，我是從 YCharts 得到這個數字的。2024 年，Palantir 的自由現金流為 6.96 億美元，我預測了未來五年的自由現金流，使用的是我從雅虎財經獲得的華爾街關注 Palantir 股票的分析師提供的 57.64% 的增長率。

I forecasted the next five years of cash flows using that 57.64% growth rate, and then in the sixth year, I forecasted Palantir's cash flow using a long-term growth rate of 5%.

我用 57.64% 的增長率預測了未來五年的現金流，然後在第六年，我用 5% 的長期增長率預測了 Palantir 的現金流。

In this valuation model, I'm forecasting Palantir will grow at an above average rate for the next five years and then settle down to the long-run growth rate of just 5%.

在這個估值模型中，我預測 Palantir 將在未來五年以高於平均水平的速度增長，然後穩定下來，長期增長率僅為 5%。

Now, this isn't typically what happens in business.

現在，這種情況在企業中並不常見。

Usually, a business will transition to a lower growth rate, and I would typically model this out in phases where I would have this short-term growth rate of 57%, and then perhaps a smaller growth rate of 25% for the next five years, and then slowly transitioning to the long-term growth rate of 5% for Palantir.

通常情況下，企業會向較低的增長率過渡，我通常會分階段建立模型，短期增長率為 57%，接下來的五年增長率可能會降低到 25%，然後慢慢過渡到 Palantir 5%的長期增長率。

But for the sake of being concise and shortening the video and shortening the example, I just went straight into the long-term growth rate, which is something that brings down Palantir's valuation perhaps more than it should.

但為了簡明扼要，縮短視頻和例子的時間，我直接講了長期增長率，這可能會降低 Palantir 的估值。

So already, this one number that I'm using or this one strategy that I'm using to evaluate Palantir stock gives it a lower valuation than it should, but I wanted to share that with you so you know that's one area that's bringing the valuation down.

是以，我在評估 Palantir 股票時使用的這一數字或這一策略使其估值低於應有的水準，但我想與你們分享這一點，讓你們知道這是導致估值下降的一個方面。

All right, the next thing I want to highlight is the cost of capital.

好了，接下來我要強調的是資本成本。

So Palantir's weighted average cost of capital, I calculated at 19.07%.

是以，我計算出 Palantir 的加權平均資本成本為 19.07%。

Now, I feel that is on the higher side than where it should be, but here's where I'm getting the numbers from.

現在，我覺得這個數字偏高了，但我是從這裡得到這些數字的。

So Palantir's capital asset pricing model, where I bring in the pricing model cost of equity of 19.82%, mostly because Palantir's beta is very high at 2.72. 2.72, and I got this beta from Yahoo Finance, which provides the beta for Palantir stock.

是以，Palantir 的資本資產定價模型，我把定價模型的股本成本定為 19.82%，主要是因為 Palantir 的貝塔係數非常高，為 2.72。2.72 這個貝塔係數是我從雅虎財經獲得的，雅虎財經提供了 Palantir 股票的貝塔係數。

Additionally, since Palantir has close to zero debt and over 94% of its capitalization is from so because the cost of equity is so high and more than 94% of the company, 94.3% to be precise, is capitalized through equity, that brings up Palantir's weighted average cost of capital to 19.07%.

此外，由於 Palantir 的債務接近於零，超過 94% 的資本來自股權，是以股權成本非常高，公司超過 94% 的資本，準確地說是 94.3% 來自股權，這使得 Palantir 的加權平均資本成本上升到 19.07%。

So these cash flows that I forecasted out for the next five years, I'm discounting them back at that 19.07% growth rate or discount rate, I should say, and that brings me to the present value of the cash flows of the next five years of $8.7269 billion, all right.

是以，我預測了未來五年的現金流，按照 19.07% 的增長率或貼現率進行折現，得出未來五年現金流的現值為 87.269 億美元。

Then when we look at the horizon value, and this means the cash flows, I've heard this called terminal value as well.

然後，我們再看地平線價值，也就是現金流，我聽說這也叫終值。

In the textbooks that I use to teach corporate finance, they call it horizon value.

在我用來教授公司財務的教科書中，他們稱之為地平線價值。

So I've gotten in the habit of calling it horizon value, but you could think of it as the terminal value.

是以，我習慣把它稱為地平線價值，但你也可以把它看作是終值。

It's the same concept.

概念是一樣的。

I've got a calculation for a horizon value at $50.57 billion, and I'm taking the 2030 expected free cash flow of $7.1 billion, divided by the weighted average cost of capital of 19.07%, minus the long-term growth rate of 5%, which brings me to that $50 billion horizon value.

我計算出的前景價值為 505.7 億美元，我將 2030 年的預期自由現金流 71 億美元除以 19.07% 的加權平均資本成本，再減去 5%的長期增長率，得出了 500 億美元的前景價值。

But remember, that's the horizon value in the year 2029.

但請記住，這是 2029 年的地平線值。

We need to get that value today.

我們今天就需要獲得這種價值。

So I discount this horizon value all the way back to today, which brings me to the present value of the horizon value of $21 billion.

是以，我將這一遠景價值一直折算到今天，得出遠景價值的現值為 210 億美元。

When we sum up these two values together, the PV of cash flows plus the PV of horizon value, we get the value of operations at $29.8639 billion for overall value of Palantir's business.

將現金流 PV 和地平線價值 PV 這兩個值相加，我們得出 Palantir 業務的整體營運價值為 298.639 億美元。

So now we have the value here, $29.863 billion value of operations.

是以，我們現在有了 298.63 億美元的業務價值。

We need to add non-operating assets and subtract debt.

我們需要增加非經營性資產，減去債務。

So I add Palantir's cash balance of $3.998 billion, and then I subtract its debt of only $229 million.

是以，我加上 Palantir 39.98 億美元的現金餘額，然後減去其僅為 2.29 億美元的債務。

And then we have to take that value and divide it by the number of shares outstanding.

然後，我們必須用這個數值除以已發行股票的數量。

So when we take this number, the value of equity at $33.632 billion for Palantir, divided by the number of shares outstanding, I get an intrinsic value calculation of Palantir stock of just $13.93.

是以，當我們用 Palantir 的股本價值（336.32 億美元）除以流通股數量時，Palantir 股票的內在價值計算結果僅為 13.93 美元。

And remember in the introduction of the video, I said I like when I get a value that's so much different than the current market price, which is right now $39 per share.

還記得我在視頻介紹中說過，我喜歡我得到的價值與目前的市場價格（現在是每股 39 美元）相差甚遠。

And my intrinsic value suggests it's worth $13.93 per share.

而我的內在價值顯示，它每股價值 13.93 美元。

So I love when this happens because then I get to ask further questions.

所以我很喜歡這種情況，因為這樣我就可以問更多的問題。

Why is my valuation so much lower than the current market price?

為什麼我的估值比目前的市場價格低這麼多？

What are the assumptions that are causing this big difference?

造成這種巨大差異的假設是什麼？

And for one, it's what I mentioned in the beginning of the video when I introduced my model and I said that I'm assuming that after five years, Palantir goes immediately into its long run growth rate, which is a much smaller growth rate of just 5%, which is one tenth the rate of one eleventh the rate of growth of the next five years.

首先，這是我在視頻開頭介紹我的模型時提到的，我說我假設五年後，Palantir 立即進入長期增長率，這個增長率要小得多，只有 5%，是未來五年增長率的十分之一。

So that's one assumption that's bringing down my intrinsic value.

是以，這也是降低我內在價值的一個假設。

Whereas if I did what's called the H model, which is a transition into a lower growth rate instead of an abrupt shift to the lower growth rate, that would have lifted Palantir's valuation according to my big difference is the weighted average cost of capital.

而如果我採用所謂的 H 模型，即過渡到較低的增長率，而不是突然轉向較低的增長率，那麼根據我的加權平均資本成本，Palantir 的估值就會提高。

I mentioned that I feel this weighted average cost of capital is too high for Palantir stock.

我說過，我覺得 Palantir 股票的加權平均資本成本太高了。

A beta of 2.72 is really high for Palantir given its business.

考慮到 Palantir 的業務，2.72 的貝塔值確實很高。

Typically, when a company is deriving a significant percentage of its revenue from the government, you have these companies become lower beta companies.

通常情況下，當一家公司有相當大比例的收入來自政府時，這些公司就會成為貝塔值較低的公司。

They're considered defense stocks, etc.

它們被視為國防股等。

And they have lower betas.

而且它們的 betas 值較低。

These revenues are at lower risk than revenues to enterprises because the government has the ability to spend money, whether the economy is in a recession or whether the economy is in robust growth.

與企業收入相比，這些收入的風險較低，因為無論是經濟衰退還是經濟強勁增長，政府都有能力花錢。

So I would adjust downward Palantir's beta.

是以，我會下調 Palantir 的測試版。

I would adjust it downward at least to perhaps 1.72.

我至少會把它調低到 1.72。

And you'll notice that brings up the intrinsic value per share to $24.55.

你會發現，每股內在價值上升到了 24.55 美元。

It makes a big difference, right?

差別很大，對吧？

Now, if I were to lower the beta further 1.32, that would bring me to a market price and intrinsic value per share that's closer to the current market price.

現在，如果我將貝塔係數進一步降低到 1.32，那麼市場價格和每股內在價值就會更接近當前的市場價格。

But at the current beta of 2.72, that's making the big difference of bringing down the intrinsic value per share.

但目前的貝塔係數為 2.72，這就造成了每股內在價值的大幅下降。

So if I were to make a few changes to the assumptions, you'll see that Palantir's intrinsic value per share will increase.

是以，如果我對假設做一些改動，你會發現 Palantir 的每股內在價值會增加。

But still, regardless of the assumptions that I adjust, I don't arrive at a calculation that makes me feel that Palantir stock is undervalued.

但是，無論我如何調整假設，我的計算結果都不會讓我覺得 Palantir 的股價被低估。

And you'll see that.

你會看到的。

And that's partly the reason why earlier, a couple of months ago or a couple of weeks ago, I forget, but you can look back on my videos and see when I told investors that I felt Palantir stock was overvalued and it was a good time to take profits.

這也是為什麼早些時候，幾個月前還是幾周前，我忘了，但你可以回顧一下我的視頻，看看我是什麼時候告訴投資者，我覺得 Palantir 的股價被高估了，現在是獲利的好時機。

Earlier this year, around January, I had Palantir stock rated as a buy because the market price was below where I felt the stock price was worth.

今年 1 月初左右，我將 Palantir 的股票評級為買入，因為當時的市價低於我認為的股價價值。

And then after the stock price surged, I told investors, okay, the stock price has increased way faster than I thought it would and way ahead of the company's growth in profits and free cash flow.

股價飆升後，我告訴投資者，好吧，股價上漲的速度比我想象的要快得多，遠遠超過了公司利潤和自由現金流的增長速度。

So it's an interesting example, not one that you should use explicitly, meaning this isn't the one data point you should use to make your investment decision.

是以，這是一個有趣的例子，但不是一個你應該明確使用的例子，也就是說，這不是你應該用來做出投資決策的一個數據點。

This is just one of among many things you can utilize to make your decision about Palantir stock.

這只是您可以用來決定是否購買 Palantir 股票的眾多因素之一。

Hey, everyone.

大家好

So many of you have been asking about my investing strategy, and I'm excited to announce that I've written a book that's available for sale now that describes my six-step investing framework for evaluating stocks.

你們很多人都在詢問我的投資策略，我很高興地宣佈，我已經寫了一本書，現在已經開始銷售，書中介紹了我評估股票的六步投資框架。

I've added the link in the description below.

我在下面的描述中添加了鏈接。