The paychecks of typical workers have not grown nearly as fast as overall economic growth over the past four years.

在過去四年中，普通工人的工資增長速度遠不及整體經濟增長速度。

In June 2024, two thirds of middle income households believed that their income was falling behind the cost of living.

2024 年 6 月，三分之二的中等收入家庭認為他們的收入落後於生活成本。

I think that many Americans feel the financial struggle because their household budget and their household balance sheets are facing so much pressure.

我認為，許多美國人都感受到了經濟上的掙扎，因為他們的家庭預算和家庭資產負債表面臨著巨大的壓力。

Every time I check my local mom group on Facebook, I see requests or people asking where they can get some financial assistance to pay utilities or assistance with rent.

每次我在 Facebook 上查看當地的媽媽群組時，都會看到有人請求或詢問在哪裡可以獲得支付水電費或房租的經濟援助。

And it's concerning because these people are working full time jobs and they just can't make things work right now.

這令人擔憂，因為這些人都在做全職工作，但他們現在卻無法把事情做好。

The issue of wage trends, wage suppression, I mean, it just could not be more central to what has happened to the middle class over the past couple of decades.

工資趨勢、工資抑制問題，我的意思是，它是過去幾十年中產階級遭遇的最核心的問題。

So what exactly is keeping the middle class from earning a higher paycheck?

那麼，究竟是什麼阻礙了中產階級獲得更高的薪酬呢？

I think people think inflation is a policy problem, but wages are my problem.

我認為人們認為通貨膨脹是政策問題，但工資才是我的問題。

And it turns out wages are not just your problem.

事實證明，工資不僅僅是你一個人的問題。

Wages are entirely a policy and political variable.

工資完全是一個政策和政治變量。

The main goal of policymakers at the Federal Reserve is to ensure maximum employment while keeping prices stable.

美聯儲決策者的主要目標是在保持物價穩定的同時確保最大限度的就業。

They rely on various economic data to guide their decisions, including the natural rate of unemployment.

他們依靠各種經濟數據，包括自然失業率來指導決策。

Economists produce this thing they call the natural rate of unemployment.

經濟學家提出了一個叫自然失業率的東西。

It's like the lowest unemployment can go without generating inflation.

這就好比失業率降到最低也不會引發通貨膨脹。

Throughout history, the natural rate of unemployment has hovered between 4.5 percent and 5.5 percent.

縱觀歷史，自然失業率一直徘徊在 4.5% 到 5.5% 之間。

And then we look at actual unemployment and how often it is above that estimate of the natural rate versus below.

然後，我們再看實際失業率，以及高於自然失業率估算值與低於自然失業率估算值的頻率。

And if you look at the years since 1979, we have spent far more time with actual unemployment well above that estimate of the natural rate.

而縱觀1979年以來的幾年，實際失業率遠高於自然失業率估算值的時間要長得多。

Between 1949 and 1979, the actual unemployment rate was cumulatively 15.3 percent below the natural rate of unemployment.

從 1949 年到 1979 年，實際失業率累計比自然失業率低 15.3%。

In contrast, the unemployment rate was cumulatively 35.7 percent above the natural rate of unemployment between 1979 and 2017.

相比之下，1979 年至 2017 年間，失業率累計比自然失業率高出 35.7%。

This has real world consequences for the American middle class because wages tend to grow faster during periods when unemployment is low.

這對美國中產階級產生了現實影響，因為在失業率較低的時期，工資往往增長較快。

The Economic Policy Institute estimates that just a one percentage point drop in unemployment leads to wage growth of 0.4 to 0.9 percentage points for workers near the median of the wage distribution.

經濟政策研究所估計，只要失業率下降一個百分點，工資分佈中位數附近的工人的工資就會增長 0.4 至 0.9 個百分點。

The best bargaining chip any employee has to getting wage growth is going to the boss and saying, I'm going to go somewhere else unless I make more money.

任何員工要想獲得工資增長，最好的籌碼就是去找老闆說：除非我賺更多的錢，否則我就去別的地方。

And that's just not a credible threat when unemployment is high.

在失業率居高不下的情況下，這種威脅並不可信。

The only people whose wages are not very affected by unemployment are like the 90th and 95th percentile.

只有第 90 和第 95 百分位數的人的工資不會受到失業的嚴重影響。

Like they don't need super low unemployment to get some consistent wage growth.

好像他們不需要超低的失業率就能獲得持續的工資增長似的。

But the middle class absolutely does.

但中產階級絕對會這樣做。

This means the Federal Reserve's policy decisions that result in higher than necessary unemployment might be creating conditions that actively hold back wage growth for middle class Americans.

這意味著，美聯儲導致失業率高於必要水準的政策決定，可能正在創造條件，積極阻礙美國中產階級的工資增長。

Location could be another factor.

地點可能是另一個因素。

There are other reasons for why we've seen less growth in the middle than, say, at the other parts of the distribution.

與分佈的其他部分相比，中間部分的增長較少還有其他原因。

Another one is just that people don't move as much as they used to.

另一個原因是，人們不再像以前那樣經常走動了。

The share of Americans on the move has declined over the years from more than 20 percent in 1948 to just 8.7 percent in 2022.

多年來，美國人的流動人口比例從 1948 年的 20% 以上下降到 2022 年的 8.7%。

Between 1986 and 1997, almost 29 percent of job seekers relocated for new jobs.

1986 年至 1997 年間，將近 29% 的求職者重新安置了工作。

That number has fallen to just 1.6 percent in 2023.

到 2023 年，這一數字將降至 1.6%。

Location plays a crucial role in wages.

地理位置對工資起著至關重要的作用。

Despite the surge in remote work during the COVID-19 pandemic, wages for remote and hybrid jobs haven't grown nearly as much as salaries for full-time in-office roles, with some research estimating that remote workers could earn up to 30 percent more if they came into the office five days a week.

儘管在 COVID-19 大流行期間，遠程工作激增，但遠程工作和混合工作的工資增長幅度遠不及辦公室全職工作的工資增長幅度，一些研究估計，如果遠程工作者每週有五天到辦公室工作，他們的收入最多可增加 30%。

Decades ago, when I was a worker living in sort of a lower opportunity area, I would move to a higher productivity city like maybe a San Francisco or New York City or Los Angeles.

幾十年前，當我還是一名生活在機會較少地區的工人時，我會搬到生產力較高的城市，比如舊金山、紐約或洛杉磯。

And as a result, I'd be able to capture higher wages, gain more skills and then move up the income distribution.

這樣，我就能拿到更高的工資，獲得更多的技能，然後在收入分配中更上一層樓。

Now there's a lot less people moving across areas to capture those opportunities.

現在，為了抓住這些機會而跨地區流動的人少了很多。

Real reason behind that is astronomical housing costs that are due to excessive regulations at local levels.

這背後的真正原因是，地方層面的過度監管導致了天文數字般的住房成本。

Home prices hit a record high in June 2024, with existing homes selling at a median price of $426,900.

2024 年 6 月，房價創下歷史新高，成屋銷售中位價為 42.69 萬美元。

In line with typical seasonal trends, home prices declined in July and August, but still set new records for those months.

根據典型的季節性趨勢，7 月和 8 月的房價有所下降，但仍創下了這兩個月的新紀錄。

The overwhelming number of jobs in the U.S. are in places that have really not seen much construction of housing.

在美國，絕大多數工作機會都是在那些沒有太多住房建設的地方。

Some economists also argue that globalization has played a pivotal role in stalling wage growth for middle-income Americans.

一些經濟學家還認為，全球化在阻礙美國中等收入人群工資增長方面發揮了關鍵作用。

The expansion of trade with countries that have much lower wages, I think that was always going to provide quite a bit of pressure on the U.S. middle class because so much of that trade runs through like the manufacturing sector, which is where a lot of middle-class jobs have been.

與工資水平低得多的國家擴大貿易，我認為這始終會給美國中產階級帶來相當大的壓力，因為許多貿易都是通過製造業進行的，而製造業正是中產階級大量就業的地方。

Between 1995 and 2013, trade with lower-wage nations like Mexico and China reduced wages for workers without a four-year degree by roughly 5.6 percent, or about $2,000 per year for workers at the median wage.

1995 年至 2013 年間，與墨西哥和中國等低工資國家的貿易使未獲得四年制學位的工人的工資降低了約 5.6%，即工資中位數工人的年薪降低了約 2000 美元。

However, whether globalization is actually to blame has long been debated, with some research suggesting it has had a minimal impact on wage and income inequality.

然而，全球化是否真的是罪魁禍首一直存在爭議，一些研究表明，全球化對工資和收入不平等的影響微乎其微。

It's not just that we did it.

這不僅僅是我們做到了。

We also did it on terms set by trade agreements that really, you know, people call them free trade agreements.

我們還根據貿易協定規定的條件來做，你知道，人們稱之為自由貿易協定。

They weren't.

他們沒有。

They were basically exercises in selective protectionism.

它們基本上是選擇性保護主義的演練。

Who gets protected?

誰會受到保護？

Who doesn't?

誰不是呢？

Middle-class workers were not protected.

中產階級工人得不到保護。

Corporations, especially corporations like software companies, drug makers, Hollywood, were all protected in these trade agreements.

在這些貿易協定中，公司，尤其是軟件公司、製藥商、好萊塢等公司都受到了保護。

So, like, it's not just the natural flow of globalization.

是以，這不僅僅是全球化的自然流動。

It's how policy shaped how it happened and who got protected and who didn't.

這是政策如何決定了事情的發生，以及誰得到了保護，誰沒有。

Regulatory policies can limit the power workers have within the labor market.

監管政策會限制工人在勞動力市場中的權力。

We've seen this huge decline in the share of workers who are represented by a union in the U.S. economy.

我們看到，在美國經濟中，由工會代表的工人比例大幅下降。

In 1983, roughly one in five Americans were in a union.

1983 年，大約五分之一的美國人加入了工會。

By 2023, that number had dropped to one in 10.

到 2023 年，這一數字下降到十分之一。

Full-time salaried union workers made about 15.9 percent more compared to non-union workers in 2023.

2023 年，全職受薪工會工人的收入比非工會工人高出約 15.9%。

Single worker going to the boss and saying, you need to give me a raise or I'll leave.

單身工人去找老闆說，你得給我加薪，否則我就走人。

That's that's not there's not a lot of force behind that threat.

這種威脅背後的力量並不強大。

When you've got a union doing it, there's a lot of force behind that threat.

如果有工會參與，這種威脅的背後就會有很大的力量。

And you look at countries that look like us.

你看看那些和我們長得很像的國家。

So they've experienced the same globalization shocks like the UK, Canada, Germany.

是以，他們和英國、加拿大、德國一樣經歷了全球化的衝擊。

Their unionization rates have fallen a bit since the peaks, but nowhere like the U.S. fall.

自高峰期以來，他們的工會組建率略有下降，但遠不及美國的下降幅度。

And then if you just sort of look at the facts on the ground over the past 30 to 40 years in the U.S., there's just been clearly been a growing employer hostility to union organizing efforts.

再看看美國過去三四十年來的實際情況，僱主對工會組織的敵意顯然與日俱增。

Among U.S. employers involved in unionization efforts, more than four out of 10 have been charged with violating federal laws during their union election campaigns.

在參與工會工作的美國僱主中，每 10 人中就有 4 人以上被指控在工會選舉活動中違反聯邦法律。

And one out of five campaigns involved the charge that a worker was illegally fired for trying to organize a union.

每五次競選活動中就有一次涉及指控一名工人因試圖組織工會而被非法解僱。

Just the number of registered unfair labor practices that are firing people trying to organize a union have risen a lot.

僅僅是解僱試圖組織工會的人的登記在冊的不公平勞動行為的數量就增加了很多。

And one thing that's happened to enable that is, I mean, one, there's been a change in management norms, I think, but also like all of the penalties for doing that, just like they're not adjusted for inflation often.

導致這種情況發生的一個原因是，我的意思是，首先，管理規範發生了變化，我認為，但同時，就像所有的懲罰措施一樣，它們並沒有經常根據通貨膨脹進行調整。

They've always been pathetically low.

他們總是低得可憐。

Like if you fire a worker for trying to organize a union, the penalty you face is you have to pay them back the whole legal process grinds out and they come back to your company.

比如，如果你解僱了一名試圖組織工會的工人，你所面臨的懲罰就是你必須向他們支付賠償金，整個法律程序都要走完，然後他們再回到你的公司。

But then you're allowed to deduct any wages they made in the meantime at another job they got.

但你可以扣除他們在此期間在另一份工作上賺取的工資。

And so firing workers trying to form a union is just a pretty small cost of business.

是以，解僱試圖組建工會的工人只是很小的經營成本。

And it pays off great because unions really do raise wages.

因為工會確實能提高工資，所以它的回報率很高。

And that's not something employers want.

這不是僱主想要的。

The decline of union membership isn't the only roadblock for growing the middle class workers' income.

工會會員人數的減少並不是中產階級工人收入增長的唯一障礙。

So in many cases, you'll have policies at a local level and a firm specific level that cut off wage growth.

是以，在很多情況下，地方層面和企業層面的政策會抑制工資增長。

There's occupational licensing in different areas of the country, which can make it harder to start a new career.

國內不同地區有不同的職業許可，這可能會增加開始新職業的難度。

While estimates vary, between a fifth and a third of all American workers are required to have a license to work.

據估計，五分之一到三分之一的美國工人需要持有工作許可證。

A study found that jobs in states requiring a license earn about 8 percent more compared to the same jobs in states that don't.

一項研究發現，與不需要執照的州相比，需要執照的州的工作收入要高出約 8%。

However, just a 10 percent increase in licensed workers with similar skills is estimated to reduce all workers' wages down by 1.6 to 2.3 percent.

然而，具有類似技能的持證工人只要增加 10%，估計所有工人的工資就會下降 1.6%至 2.3%。

Economists estimate that eliminating occupational licensing can reduce earnings inequality within occupations by 2 to 4 percent.

經濟學家估計，取消職業許可可將職業內部的收入不平等程度降低 2% 至 4%。

While licensing might appear to be necessary for some professions with health and safety concerns, researchers found no statistical difference in health and safety quality outcomes between states that require licensing compared to states that don't.

雖然對於某些存在健康和安全問題的職業來說，頒發執照似乎很有必要，但研究人員發現，在健康和安全品質結果方面，要求頒發執照的州與不要求頒發執照的州之間沒有統計差異。

To be a hairstylist in some places, for instance, you need a license from the state to actually do that.

例如，在某些地方，要成為一名髮型師，你需要獲得州政府頒發的執照才能真正從事這項工作。

So there's a lot of these types of occupations that really are not dangerous and don't need state licensing to be made safe.

是以，有很多這類職業其實並不危險，也不需要國家頒發許可證來確保安全。

But nonetheless, we have these licenses in place probably to protect the incumbents and make it harder for new entrants to come in, sort of do their own business or start this new career field and thereby increase their wages.

但儘管如此，我們還是設立了這些許可證，可能是為了保護在職者，讓新進入者更難進來，做自己的生意或開始新的職業領域，從而提高他們的工資。

I think as important as the middle class is economically, and I think it's incredibly important, it is just the entire game for, I think, politics.

我認為，中產階級在經濟上固然重要，而且我認為它無比重要，但我認為，它只是政治遊戲的全部。

Both political parties in the United States recognize the economic pressures facing U.S. families.

美國的兩個政黨都認識到美國家庭所面臨的經濟壓力。

There's different visions on how to intervene effectively.

對於如何進行有效干預，人們有不同的看法。

I was raised as a middle class kid, and I am actually the only person on this stage who has a plan that is about lifting up the middle class and working people of America.

我是作為中產階級的孩子長大的，而實際上，我是這個舞臺上唯一一個有一個關於提升美國中產階級和勞動人民的計劃的人。

For Kamala Harris, strengthening wages is about two things.

對於卡馬拉-哈里斯來說，提高工資有兩方面的意義。

It's about boosting the industries where wage workers work.

這是為了促進僱傭工人工作的行業。

So she wants to build on the Biden administration's infrastructure investments to onshore domestic manufacturing and construction and boost those domestic industries.

是以，她希望以拜登政府的基礎設施投資為基礎，在岸上發展國內製造業和建築業，並促進這些國內產業的發展。

She also has a huge focus on strengthening union protections.

她還非常重視加強對工會的保護。

She wants to raise the minimum wage, end taxes on tips, which is a policy that Trump first proposed and she later echoed.

她希望提高最低工資標準，取消小費稅，這是特朗普首先提出的政策，她後來也表示贊同。

Trump's proposals to strengthen wages for the middle class, in many ways, it mirrors what Harris has proposed, which is to onshore domestic manufacturing and construction.

特朗普提出的提高中產階級工資的建議，在很多方面都與哈里斯的建議如出一轍，即在岸國內製造業和建築業。

He has proposed doing so by instating a hardline tariff policy.

他建議採取強硬的關稅政策。

Former President Trump publicly denounced globalism during his time in office, blaming the financial struggles faced by many Americans on it.

前總統特朗普在任期間曾公開譴責全球主義，將許多美國人面臨的金融困境歸咎於全球主義。

We're doing tariffs on other countries.

我們正在對其他國家徵收關稅。

Other countries are going to finally, after 75 years, pay us back for all that we've done for the world.

其他國家在 75 年後終於要回報我們為世界所做的一切。

He's faced some backlash from economists about how this could threaten to reheat the consumer price spikes that are just beginning to cool.

他面臨著一些經濟學家的反彈，認為這可能會使剛剛開始降溫的消費價格飆升再次升溫。

But he sees it as a long term strategy to bring domestic jobs back to the U.S., boost manufacturing in the U.S.

但他認為這是一項長期戰略，可以將國內就業崗位帶回美國，促進美國製造業的發展。

So in some ways, this is his plan to grow the U.S. economy as a whole and let the effects sort of ripple into the middle class as a result.

是以，從某種程度上說，這是他的計劃，目的是讓美國經濟整體增長，並讓其影響波及中產階級。

Another major difference is in the candidates' proposed tax policies.

另一個主要區別在於候選人提出的稅收政策。

I have a plan to give startup businesses $50,000 tax deduction to pursue their ambitions, their innovation, their ideas, their hard work.

我有一項計劃，為初創企業提供 5 萬美元的稅收減免，以實現他們的抱負、創新、想法和辛勤工作。

I have a plan, $6,000 for young families for the first year of your child's life to help you in that most critical stage of your child's development.

我有一個計劃，在孩子出生後的第一年為年輕家庭提供 6,000 美元，在孩子成長的最關鍵階段為您提供幫助。

She has proposed offsetting the costs of her tax relief proposals by increasing corporate tax hikes and tax hikes on the wealthy.

她提議通過增加企業稅和富人稅來抵消其減稅提案的成本。

She's proposed increasing the corporate tax rate to 28 percent.

她建議將企業稅率提高到 28%。

She wants to increase the tax rate on long term capital gains also to 28 percent.

她希望將長期資本收益的稅率也提高到 28%。

Everybody knows I'm an open book.

大家都知道我是個開放的人。

Everybody knows what I'm going to do, cut taxes very substantially and create a great economy like I did before.

每個人都知道我要做什麼，大幅減稅，像以前一樣創造一個偉大的經濟。

So in 2017, we had the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which substantially lowered the corporate tax.

是以，2017 年，我們出臺了《減稅與就業法案》，大幅降低了企業稅。

And there's varying degrees about how much people believe that translated into higher wages.

至於人們認為這在多大程度上能轉化為更高的工資，則各有不同。

But there's a pretty strong consensus that lowering the corporate tax actually increased worker wages.

但有一個相當強烈的共識，即降低企業稅實際上增加了工人工資。

Some research has estimated that the 2017 tax cut led to a $750 increase in annual pay for full time employees in 2017 dollars.

有研究估計，按 2017 年美元計算，2017 年的減稅政策使全職員工的年薪增加了 750 美元。

Opposing research argues that the earning gains were concentrated in the top 10 percent, with no changes in earnings for the bottom 90 percent.

相反的研究認為，收入增長主要集中在收入最高的 10%，而收入最低的 90%的人的收入沒有變化。

Trump's framing of boosting the middle class by boosting the economy as a whole doesn't offer sort of the targeted approach that Harris has brought to her economic platform.

特朗普的構想是通過促進整體經濟來提高中產階級的地位，而哈里斯在她的經濟政綱中並沒有提供那種有針對性的方法。

Her policy page is consistently drawing back to the middle class, saying how, you know, her tax relief programs will benefit the middle class specifically.

她的政策頁面一直在強調中產階級，說她的減稅計劃將如何特別惠及中產階級。

Trump is focused on growth and growing the U.S. economy as a whole and letting the success of that policy trickle down to the middle class.

特朗普關注的是增長和美國整體經濟的增長，並讓這一政策的成功惠及中產階級。

Policy matters so much in generating like the wage income that is the lifeblood of the middle class.

工資收入是中產階級的命脈，在創造工資收入方面，政策非常重要。

I think a lot of people just haven't made that connection between the wages I earn and what is the policy environment.

我想很多人都沒有把我的工資和政策環境聯繫起來。

When they think policy, they think direct benefits that come from the government.

當他們想到政策時，就會想到來自政府的直接利益。

But a lot of what the government does conditions how fast their wages grow in the labor market.

但政府所做的很多事情都會影響他們在勞動力市場上的工資增長速度。

And yet the connection hasn't been made on how policy affects them and the most important way they earn income in the labor market.

然而，政策對他們的影響以及他們在勞動力市場上賺取收入的最重要方式還沒有聯繫起來。

I'm not hopeful that the presidential platforms themselves will solve the woes of the middle class, but nor do I think the federal government is in the front seat on solving them anyway.

我對總統政綱本身能否解決中產階級的困境不抱希望，但無論如何，我也不認為聯邦政府是解決這些問題的主導者。

But they are taking it seriously.

但他們正在認真對待。

I mean, hopefully those problems will be made more transparent.

我的意思是，希望這些問題能夠更加透明化。

We'll shine a light on them.

我們將為他們點亮一盞燈。

And then through a combination of federal action, state and local action, that we will see some of these improvements that we need in terms of less regulation and some targeted support where it makes sense to help middle class families thrive.

然後，通過聯邦行動、州和地方行動的結合，我們將看到我們所需要的一些改進，即減少監管和一些有針對性的支持，以幫助中產階級家庭茁壯成長。