Name: 【國際議題】以色列與伊朗的緊張局勢將會對商業航線造成什麼樣慘烈的影響？(How Israel-Iran Tensions Are Choking Commercial Flight Paths | WSJ)
Uploaded: 2024-10-07T21:01:20.000Z
Duration: 5 min 44 s

As more than 180 Iranian missiles streamed down on Israel on October 1st, surrounding countries were forced to shut their airspace, and airlines were left scrambling to redirect at least 80 flights.

10 月 1 日，180 多枚伊朗飛彈飛向以色列，周邊國家被迫關閉領空，航空公司不得不緊急調整至少 80 個班機的方向。

Now, the prospect of a full-fledged war between Israel and Iran means navigation through this, one of the most densely traversed regions of the world, has suddenly become even more complicated.

現在，以色列和伊朗之間全面開戰的前景意味著，在這個世界上交通最密集的地區之一航行，突然變得更加複雜。

What we've seen over the last few years is that conflicts around the region have started to cut off some of that crucial airspace.

我們在過去幾年中看到，該地區的衝突已開始切斷一些關鍵空域。

So here's how commercial airlines are adjusting to the increasingly volatile situation in the Middle East.

以下是商業航空公司如何應對日益動盪的中東局勢。

Positioned at the strategic crossroads of the major economies, Asia, Africa and Europe, 9% of international traffic passes through the Middle East region.

中東地區地處亞洲、非洲和歐洲主要經濟體的戰略交匯點，9% 的國際交通通過該地區。

That's more than the 8% of international traffic that crosses North America.

這比穿越北美的國際交通量的 8%還要多。

Much of it goes via the Superhub airports in the UAE and Qatar.

大部分貨運都要經過阿聯酋和卡達的超級樞紐機場。

That's really attributed to this massive growth in airlines like Emirates, Etihad, Qatar Airways, which have started to use the Middle East as really a stopover point for connecting the world's traffic.

這主要歸功於阿聯酋航空、阿提哈德航空、卡達航空等航空公司的大幅增長，它們開始將中東作為連接全球交通的中轉站。

But this thoroughfare linking the West and the East is a narrow one.

但這條連接東西方的大道卻很狹窄。

Even before the Iranian missile attacks of October 1st, airlines were detouring around Libya, Sudan, Syria and Yemen.

甚至在 10 月 1 日伊朗飛彈襲擊之前，航空公司就開始繞道利比亞、蘇丹、敘利亞和葉門。

And Russia's war on Ukraine has turned more than 200,000 square miles of Europe into a no-fly zone, with Moscow also closing its airspace to airlines from dozens of countries in response to Western sanctions.

俄羅斯對烏克蘭發動的戰爭已將歐洲 20 多萬平方英里的土地變成禁飛區，莫斯科還關閉了其領空，禁止數十個國家的航空公司進入，以迴應西方的制裁。

Industry experts divide the rest of the available airspace into four main corridors across Iraq, Iran, Egypt in the south and Azerbaijan in the north.

業內專家將其餘可用空域劃分為橫跨伊拉克、伊朗、南部埃及和北部阿塞拜疆的四條主要走廊。

But in April 2024, only these two routes were left for airlines to use, when Iran's first missile and drone attack on Israel resulted in the temporary closure of airspace over Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and partially over Iran, impacting flights across the region.

但到了 2024 年 4 月，航空公司只能使用這兩條航線，因為伊朗對以色列發動了首次飛彈和無人機襲擊，導致以色列、黎巴嫩、約旦、伊拉克上空的空域暫時關閉，伊朗上空的部分空域也被關閉，整個地區的班機受到影響。

Following Iran's latest attack on Israel, Europe's aviation regulator has now issued a recommendation for airlines to halt all operations in Israeli, Lebanese and Iranian airspace.

繼伊朗最近對以色列發動襲擊之後，歐洲航空監管機構現已建議航空公司停止在以色列、黎巴嫩和伊朗領空的所有業務。

Aviation, just in general, is often one of the first places you can see when a conflict starts to unravel or starts to take place, because countries have a duty to protect civilians flying over or through their airspace.

一般來說，當衝突開始瓦解或開始發生時，航空往往是你最先看到的地方之一，因為各國有責任保護飛越或通過其領空的平民。

The killing of senior members from the militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah in late July put commercial aviation on high alert in the Middle East, prompting airlines to adjust operations in the region once more.

7 月底，激進組織哈馬斯和真主黨的高級成員被殺，使中東地區的商業航空處於高度警戒狀態，促使航空公司再次調整在該地區的營運。

We've seen airlines shift to morning flights as opposed to evening flights.

我們看到，與晚間班機相比，航空公司已將早間班機改為晚間班機。

That's really designed to prevent their crew and their aircraft being stuck overnight in an area that may or may not fall into a significant conflict.

這樣做的真正目的是防止機組人員和飛機被困在一個可能會也可能不會陷入重大沖突的地區過夜。

By mid-August, dozens of airlines temporarily rerouted or cancelled some of their flights in the region.

到 8 月中旬，數十家航空公司臨時改變或取消了該地區的部分班機。

There are small adjustments to airspace that have these huge ramifications on airlines.

空域的微小調整都會對航空公司產生巨大影響。

For passengers, longer flights, less access to destinations, and more expensive tickets.

對乘客來說，飛行時間更長，到達目的地的機會更少，機票價格更貴。

If it costs more for the airline to operate, it'll cost more for the passenger to fly.

如果航空公司的營運成本增加，乘客的飛行成本也會增加。

For example, a 17-hour-long flight from Perth, Australia, to London had to be modified to include a pit stop in Singapore, adding about three hours to the journey.

例如，從澳洲珀斯飛往倫敦的長達 17 個小時的班機必須進行調整，在新加坡中途停留，從而增加了約 3 個小時的航程。

And to avoid the turbulent Middle East, the flight was rerouted over Afghanistan.

為了避開動盪的中東，班機改道飛越阿富汗。

Afghan airspace has remained mostly unused for transiting since the Taliban returned to power in 2021.

自 2021 年塔利班重新掌權以來，阿富汗領空大部分時間仍未用於過境。

In late August 2023, dozens of aircraft, mainly Afghan ones, passed through the country on a daily basis.

2023 年 8 月下旬，每天都有數十架飛機（主要是阿富汗飛機）經過該國。

A year later, nearly 200 did, according to data by flight tracking organisation Flight Radar 24.

一年後，根據飛行跟蹤組織 Flight Radar 24 的數據，有近 200 架飛機這樣做了。

But in July, the European Aviation Safety Regulator warned that extremist groups remain active and might sporadically target aviation facilities.

但今年 7 月，歐洲航空安全監管局警告說，極端主義組織依然活躍，可能會不時以航空設施為襲擊目標。

The regulator also raised concern over their absence or limited air traffic service capacities across the entire country.

監管機構還對全國範圍內缺乏空中交通服務能力或能力有限表示關切。

Qantas, operating the flight from Perth to London, ran the modified route with a stopover in Singapore for around a week in April and two weeks in August.

營運珀斯至倫敦班機的澳洲航空公司（Qantas）在四月和八月分別營運了約一週和兩週經停新加坡的修改航線。

Commenting on the use of Afghan airspace, Qantas said that they regularly review and determine the flight paths taken by their aircraft based on multiple factors, including security and weather.

在談到阿富汗領空的使用時，澳航表示，他們會根據安全和天氣等多重因素定期審查和確定飛機的飛行路線。

Aviation experts say many airlines are already operating at the margin of profitability on long-haul flights.

航空專家說，許多航空公司的長途班機已經處於盈利邊緣。

And so the request from Europe's aviation regulator for airlines to halt all operations in Israeli, Lebanese and Iranian airspace is the latest challenge to the viability of some of those long-distance flights.

是以，歐洲航空監管機構要求航空公司停止在以色列、黎巴嫩和伊朗領空的所有業務，是對一些長途班機可行性的最新挑戰。

We're seeing, coming out of the pandemic, massive investments being made in Turkey, in India, in Saudi Arabia.

我們看到，大流行病過後，土耳其、印度和沙特阿拉伯都在進行大規模投資。

These airlines buying hundreds of new aircraft with the goal of really connecting Saudi Arabia, India, kind of to the world.

這些航空公司購買了數百架新飛機，目標是真正將沙特阿拉伯、印度與世界連接起來。

So these really massive operations are going to rely more and more increasingly on the Middle East as this really critical connection point.

是以，這些真正的大規模行動將越來越多地依賴中東這個關鍵的連接點。

This is really the sliver of airspace that punches above its weight when it comes to its significance for commercial aviation.

就其對商業航空的重要意義而言，這確實是一片超乎尋常的空域。

 This risk of an escalating crisis or a broader Middle East regional conflict, the fallout for airlines would be incredibly significant.

這種危機升級的風險或更廣泛的中東地區衝突，對航空公司的影響將是巨大的。