Name: 臺灣的軍費開支為何如此之低？- 視覺政治 EN (Why Does Taiwan Spend So Little on Its Military? - VisualPolitik EN)
Uploaded: 2024-10-04T23:25:40.000Z
Duration: 18 min 23 s

基礎被動語態

Lai Ching-tei, also known as William Lai, was sworn in on 20th May amid strong threats from China and pro-independence statements. "...

賴清德，又名威廉-賴，於 5 月 20 日在中國的強烈威脅和支持獨立的聲明中宣誓就職。"...

I hope that China will face the reality of Taiwan's existence, respect the choices of the people of Taiwan and, in good faith, choose dialogue over confrontation." So of course, the presidential inauguration has been anything but smooth for Lai.

我希望中國能夠正視臺灣存在的現實，尊重臺灣人民的選擇，真誠地選擇對話而不是對抗"。當然，賴清德的總統就職典禮並不順利。

The Beijing regime responded to the arrival of the new president by nothing less than carrying out new massive invasion drills on Taiwan.

北京政權對新總統上臺的反應不外乎是對臺灣進行新的大規模入侵演習。

It was Beijing's unusual welcome and a clear warning to what they consider a president very much inclined to secession.

這是北京不尋常的歡迎儀式，也是對他們認為非常傾向於分裂的總統的明確警告。

China says military drills encircling Taiwan designed to test its ability to seize power.

中國稱包圍臺灣的軍事演習旨在測試其奪權能力。

What you see right now on screen are the two biggest invasion drills Beijing has conducted in the last two years, this one from 24th May and one from August 2022.

您現在在螢幕上看到的是北京在過去兩年中進行的兩次最大規模的入侵演習，一次是 5 月 24 日的演習，另一次是 2022 年 8 月的演習。

With these exercises, the Chinese regime has encircled Taiwan by sea and air in what can be interpreted as terrible psychological warfare to threaten the Taiwanese and tell them that, if you take one step out of line, in a few hours you will become part of the People's Republic of China.

通過這些演習，中國政權從海上和空中包圍了臺灣，這可以被解釋為可怕的心理戰，威脅臺灣人並告訴他們，如果你越雷池一步，幾個小時後你將成為中華人民共和國的一部分。

In other words, we are facing an action of subjugation.

換句話說，我們面臨的是征服行動。

What Xi Jinping's regime is doing is telling the Taiwanese that everything they have, democracy, autonomy, freedom of expression, security, is because Beijing lets them have it until they get tired of it and take it away from them.

習近平政權正在做的就是告訴臺灣人，他們所擁有的一切，民主、自治、言論自由、安全，都是因為北京讓他們擁有，直到他們厭倦並奪走為止。

And of course, with the Hong Kong precedent and news items like this, the outlook is not reassuring.

當然，有了香港的先例和這樣的新聞，前景並不令人放心。

China drops peaceful reunification reference to Taiwan Now, with all these threats, which the Taiwanese have been putting up with for decades, you would think that the island, a fairly wealthy country with a GDP per capita, similar to that of South Korea, would put a veritable fortune into its military budget.

中國放棄和平統一臺灣的提法 現在，面對臺灣人幾十年來一直忍受的所有這些威脅，你會認為這個人均 GDP 與韓國相近、相當富裕的島國會在軍事預算上投入一筆名副其實的鉅款。

But what if I told you that this is not the case at all?

但如果我告訴你事實並非如此呢？

South Korea, a country also under great threat, in its case from its northern neighbor, invests around 3% of its GDP in defense, while Taiwan barely exceeds 2%.

韓國也面臨著來自北方鄰國的巨大威脅，其國防投資約佔國內生產總值的 3%，而臺灣僅勉強超過 2%。

What's more, that 2% is only thanks to the increase in recent years.

更重要的是，這 2% 只是由於近年來的增長。

Given the current situation, it seems much more likely that China will try to do something serious in Taiwan than that North Korea will try to do something serious to its maximum tension.

從目前的形勢來看，中國試圖在臺灣動真格的可能性似乎要比北韓試圖在其最大緊張局勢下動真格的可能性大得多。

I don't know, doesn't seem like a huge effort.

我也不知道，看起來不是很費勁。

As a comparison, many of the Eastern European countries bordering Russia and Belarus are already spending more than 3% on defense.

相比之下，與俄羅斯和白俄羅斯接壤的許多東歐國家的國防開支已經超過了 3%。

This has led the VisualPolitik team to ask ourselves a very clear question.

這促使 VisualPolitik 團隊向自己提出了一個非常明確的問題。

Why on earth does Taiwan spend so little on defense?

臺灣的國防開支為何如此之少？

Are they not concerned about the Chinese threat?

What is the explanation for this apparent incongruity?

Well, we've done our homework, and now in this video we're going to tell you all about it in order to get started.

好了，我們已經做足了功課，現在在這段視頻中，我們將告訴你有關它的一切，以便開始行動。

It's always been the great obsession of Chinese leaders.

這一直是中國領導人的一大心病。

Since Mao Zedong triumphed with his communist revolution in 1949, this has always been a priority objective, to recover the only communist party, Taiwan, the island where the leaders of the Republic of China and the Kuomintang took refuge.

自 1949 年毛澤東取得共產主義革命勝利以來，這一直是一個優先目標，即收復唯一的共產黨--臺灣，中華民國和國民黨領導人避難的島嶼。

We've already talked about it many times on VisualPolitik.

我們已經在 VisualPolitik 上討論過很多次了。

Now, the slowdown of the Chinese economy, domestic problems and the trade war with the United States have further fueled the nationalist discourse.

現在，中國經濟放緩、國內問題以及與美國的貿易戰進一步助長了民族主義言論。

And of course, if there is one thing that fuels Chinese nationalism above anything else, it is precisely the Taiwan issue.

當然，如果說有什麼東西能讓中國的民族主義火上澆油，那就是臺灣問題。

Which is also one of the reasons why China is modernizing its armed forces by leaps and bounds.

這也是中國軍隊現代化突飛猛進的原因之一。

Now, as I said before, with this growing threat, it would be reasonable to think that Taiwan is increasing its military spending, wouldn't it?

現在，正如我之前所說的，隨著威脅的不斷增加，我們有理由認為臺灣正在增加軍費開支，不是嗎？

After all, we're talking about the fact that its very existence may be in danger.

畢竟，我們談論的是它的生存可能面臨危險的事實。

As you can see, and despite a small recent rebound, the trend in Taiwan over recent decades has been to make a smaller and smaller economic effort in defense.

如您所見，儘管最近略有反彈，但近幾十年來，臺灣在國防方面的經濟努力一直呈下降趨勢。

If we look at the data of the last decade, we might well think that defense has been far from being a priority in Taipei.

如果我們看一下過去十年的數據，我們很可能會認為國防在臺北遠非優先事項。

The result is that between 1996 and 2019, the percentage of GDP devoted to defense was cut in half.

結果是，從 1996 年到 2019 年，國防開支佔國內生產總值的比例減少了一半。

Which, trust me, is easier said than done.

相信我，說起來容易做起來難。

And things don't seem to be changing much either.

Increases in military spending have been announced, but not with much sign of change.

增加軍費的消息已經宣佈，但並沒有什麼變化的跡象。

And this alone is something to make our heads explode.

光是這一點，就足以讓我們頭皮發麻。

In recent years, this island has become a key strategic enclave for global industry thanks to its famous microchips.

近年來，這座島嶼因其著名的微型芯片而成為全球工業的重要戰略飛地。

And yet Taiwan does not seem to take defense particularly seriously.

然而，臺灣似乎並不特別重視國防。

Most military analyses of the state of its armed forces are clear.

對其武裝部隊狀況的軍事分析大多是明確的。

But to illustrate this further, let's take a closer look at the defense effort they are actually making.

不過，為了進一步說明這一點，讓我們仔細看看他們實際做出的防禦努力。

Taiwan currently is spending $709 per capita on defense, an amount similar to countries without imminent geopolitical risks such as the Netherlands or New Zealand.

臺灣目前的人均國防開支為 709 美元，與荷蘭或紐西蘭等沒有緊迫地緣政治風險的國家相近。

By comparison, Singapore spends about $2,200 per capita, and Israel almost $3,000.

相比之下，新加坡的人均支出約為 2,200 美元，以色列接近 3,000 美元。

So you see, with the data in hand, it seems that Washington is more concerned about the security of the island than the Taiwanese government.

所以你看，有了這些數據，華盛頓似乎比臺灣政府更關心島內的安全。

And remember, we're not the only ones to have noticed.

請記住，我們不是唯一注意到這一點的人。

The United States has been urging them for years to redouble their efforts in order to be able to face a Chinese invasion when the time comes, a scenario that seems less and less unlikely.

多年來，美國一直敦促他們加倍努力，以便在時機成熟時能夠面對中國的入侵，而這種情況似乎越來越不可能發生。

Contrary to many other countries, public opinion in Taiwan is mostly in favor of increasing military spending.

與許多其他國家相反，臺灣的民意大多支持增加軍費。

To reach this 3% of GDP in defense in 2023, $6.6 billion more would have had to be spent than was actually spent.

要在 2023 年達到國防開支佔國內生產總值 3%的目標，就必須比實際開支多支出 66 億美元。

But then, if the threat exists, and Taiwanese society supports it, why does the defense budget of this island seem to be so low?

但是，既然威脅存在，臺灣社會也支持這種威脅，為什麼這個島國的國防預算似乎如此之低？

One question, have you ever considered what the US would do if China were to attack Taiwan?

有一個問題，你有沒有想過如果中國進攻臺灣，美國會怎麼做？

Well, those of you who think that Uncle Sam would definitely defend Taipei, congratulations!

那麼，那些認為山姆大叔一定會保衛臺北的人，恭喜你們！

You think the same as the Taiwanese government.

It's a sentiment that may be a long way toward explaining why Taiwan's defense spending is not higher.

這種情緒或許可以很好地解釋為什麼臺灣的國防開支沒有增加。

But what if I told you that there is a huge grey area in that interpretation?

但如果我告訴你，這種解釋存在著巨大的灰色地帶呢？

To begin with, in terms of defense, Taiwan-US relations are built through so-called strategic ambiguity.

首先，在防務方面，臺美關係是通過所謂的戰略模糊來建立的。

In other words, the Americans neither confirm nor deny that they would go out to protect the Taiwanese in the event of a Chinese invasion.

換句話說，美國人既不確認也不否認他們會在中國入侵時出兵保護臺灣人。

There is no protection agreement and there is no defensive umbrella or anything of the sort.

沒有保護協議，也沒有保護傘之類的東西。

This is a totally different situation from what is happening in South Korea, for example.

The only thing the Taiwanese have today, beyond the support of Joe Biden, who has said several times that he would defend Taiwan, is perhaps an unpublished communication of intent.

喬-拜登曾多次表示他將保衛臺灣，除了他的支持，臺灣人今天唯一擁有的也許就是一份未公開的意向書。

If Biden does not remain in the White House and another, less committed president arrives in the future, Taipei would have virtually nothing.

如果拜登不繼續留在白宮，而未來另一位不那麼堅定的總統上臺，臺北將幾乎一無所有。

And you may ask, how is it possible that what is probably one of America's most threatened allies is not under any umbrella of protection?

你可能會問，美國可能是最受威脅的盟國之一，怎麼可能不受任何保護？

Well, I'm guessing you can already imagine where this is going, China.

好吧，我猜你已經能想象出這是怎麼回事了，中國。

To begin with, Taiwan is not recognized as a state by Washington, which recognizes only one China and since 1979 that is the People's Republic of China.

首先，華盛頓不承認臺灣是一個國家，它只承認一箇中國，自 1979 年以來就是中華人民共和國。

Remember that Taiwan has never proclaimed its independence.

That alone greatly limits Washington's options to begin with.

僅這一點就大大限制了華盛頓的選擇。

As you know, over the years China has been gaining more and more ground economically to become an export powerhouse on which the supply chains of almost the entire world depend.

眾所周知，多年來，中國的經濟實力不斷增強，已成為出口大國，幾乎全世界的供應鏈都依賴於中國。

This in itself is Beijing's greatest source of protection and also its main bargaining chip.

這本身就是中國政府最大的保護傘，也是其討價還價的主要籌碼。

If the US goes too far with Taiwan, then China could hit the US economy very hard.

如果美國在臺灣問題上走得太遠，那麼中國可能會對美國經濟造成沉重打擊。

And don't even ask me what would happen to the European Union and other allies of the West in Asia that are heavily dependent on trade with Beijing.

不要問我歐盟和其他嚴重依賴與北京貿易的西方國家在亞洲的盟友會發生什麼。

當然，這已經不是什麼祕密了。

What's more, there are already precedents of Washington making decisions contrary to Taipei's interests so as to not upset China.

更何況，華盛頓為了不惹惱中國，做出違背臺北利益的決定已有先例。

That year, as you all know, the 9-11 attacks on the Twin Towers in New York took place, and George Bush then began to build an alliance to fight global terrorism, the famous War on Terror.

眾所周知，那一年發生了針對紐約雙子塔的 "9-11 "襲擊事件，喬治-布什隨後開始建立一個打擊全球恐怖主義的聯盟，這就是著名的反恐戰爭。

At that time, Taiwan was on the verge of closing a deal to buy American F-16 fighters.

當時，臺灣即將完成購買美國 F-16 戰鬥機的交易。

Bush had to delay the sale of these fighters to facilitate China collaborating in the anti-jihadist alliance, for example, with intelligence information.

布什不得不延後出售這些戰鬥機，以方便中國與反聖戰聯盟合作，例如提供情報信息。

When it comes down to it, the United States puts its own interests before those of Taiwan's defense.

歸根結底，美國將自身利益置於臺灣防務利益之上。

At least that is what some past events show us.

至少過去的一些事件告訴我們，情況就是這樣。

Added to this are the constant delays by the United States in delivering artillery, sea defense systems or missiles to Taiwan.

此外，美國還不斷拖延向臺灣運送火炮、海防系統或飛彈。

To give you an idea, the upgrade of the F-16 and delivery of AGM-154 air-to-ground missiles was delayed by more than a decade.

舉個例子，F-16 的升級和 AGM-154 空對地飛彈的交付就延後了十多年。

In fact, the backlog in arms deliveries is so large that, according to estimates, there is already about $19 billion in equipment awaiting delivery, an amount greater even than Taiwan's entire military budget in 2023.

事實上，武器交付的積壓量非常大，據估計，已有約 190 億美元的裝備等待交付，這一數額甚至超過了臺灣 2023 年的全部軍事預算。

And if we focus only on the expenditure items aimed at buying equipment, we are talking about quite a few years of military spending.

如果我們只關注用於購買裝備的支出項目，那麼我們談論的將是相當多年的軍費開支。

As you can imagine, this discourages the Taiwanese government from buying more weapons from the United States.

可以想象，這使臺灣政府不願意從美國購買更多武器。

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臺灣的軍費開支為何如此之低？- 視覺政治 EN (Why Does Taiwan Spend So Little on Its Military? - VisualPolitik EN)

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