And my answer is always yes.

我的回答總是肯定的。

It's like so many important and valuable human capabilities, a mixture of nature and nurture and experience.

它就像人類許多重要而寶貴的能力一樣，是天性、教養和經驗的混合體。

You're not going to become a world-class marathoner if you don't have the right physiology, the right muscles, the right lungs.

如果你沒有正確的生理結構、正確的肌肉和正確的肺部，你就不可能成為世界級的馬拉松運動員。

But you still need to train very hard.

但你仍然需要刻苦訓練。

And it's very similar with strategic thinking.

戰略思維也是如此。

You certainly are born with an endowment.

你當然生來就有天賦。

Some people are naturally better than others.

有些人天生就比其他人優秀。

But there's so much you can do to develop yourself. And I always tell people, don't worry about the endowment.

但你可以做很多事情來發展自己。我總是告訴人們，不要擔心捐贈。

Focus on the improvement.

注重改進。

Because my research shows definitively that you can get much better at being an effective strategic thinker.

因為我的研究明確顯示，你可以更好地成為一名有效的戰略思考者。

I'm Michael Watkins.

我是邁克爾-沃特金斯

I'm a professor of leadership and organizational change at the IMD Business School in Lausanne, Switzerland.

我是瑞士洛桑國際管理髮展學院（IMD）商學院的領導力與組織變革教授。

My book is "The Six Disciplines of Strategic Thinking." Strategic thinking has always been a critical skill at the top.

我的書是 "戰略思維的六項修煉"。戰略思維一直是高層管理者的一項重要技能。

Leaders must be able to recognize emerging challenges and opportunities, establish the right priorities to focus their organizations, and critically mobilize their people to do what's necessary to adapt to the many changes that are going on today.

領導者必須能夠認識到新出現的挑戰和機遇，確定正確的優先事項以突出組織的重點，並以批判的眼光動員員工採取必要行動，以適應當今的諸多變化。

In the research I did on strategic thinking, I identified six key mental disciplines that underlie your ability to recognize, prioritize, and mobilize. Pattern recognition is a foundational discipline of strategic thinking.

在我對戰略思維的研究中，我發現了六種關鍵的思維方式，它們是你識別、優先考慮和調動能力的基礎。模式識別是戰略思維的基礎學科。

The ability to find the signal, the important information, in what can be a sea of noise.

在茫茫噪音中找到信號、重要資訊的能力。

Not just absorbing what's happening, but thinking about why.

不僅要了解發生了什麼，還要思考為什麼。

Thinking about connection.

思考連接。

When grandmasters look at a chessboard, they don't just see pieces, they don't just see the layout of the board.

特級大師看棋盤時，他們看到的不僅僅是棋子，也不僅僅是棋盤的佈局。

They see the most important patterns that exist in that configuration.

他們能看到該配置中存在的最重要的模式。

They see opportunity.

他們看到了機遇。

They see concentrations of power.

他們看到了權力的集中。

They see potential vulnerabilities. At the heart of your ability as a leader to navigate complexity is the discipline of systems analysis.

他們能看到潛在的漏洞。系統分析是領導者駕馭複雜性的核心能力。

It's absolutely essential, of course, that systems models capture the most important features and dynamics of the system that you're talking about.

當然，絕對重要的是，系統模型要捕捉到所討論系統的最重要特徵和動態。

But given the very, very high levels of complexity today, no human being, and indeed, so far, no computer, is able to flawlessly model the entire set of variables and interactions that constitute a complicated system. One example I use is climate, where today we have very good models of climate, but they're absolutely simplifications of reality.

但是，鑑於今天的複雜程度非常非常高，沒有人，事實上，到目前為止，也沒有計算機，能夠完美無瑕地模擬構成一個複雜系統的全部變量和相互作用。我舉的一個例子是氣候，今天我們有非常好的氣候模型，但它們絕對是對現實的簡化。

They model large chunks of the atmosphere, for example, in ways that are really kind of crude, almost.

例如，它們對大塊大氣層進行建模的方式非常粗糙。

But they do capture the most important features of the overall climate system in a way that lets you make good predictions. As you focus on the discipline of mental agility, it's important to understand this idea of level shifting.

但是，它們確實捕捉到了整個氣候系統最重要的特徵，讓你可以做出很好的預測。當你專注于思維敏捷性的訓練時，理解這種水準轉換的理念非常重要。

There's a CEO I work with who describes this as cloud-to-ground thinking, the ability to move from a high-level perspective to be in the clouds to see the big picture of what's going on, but also to drill down into the detail when necessary.

與我共事的一位首席執行官將其形容為 "從雲到地的思維"，即能夠從高層次的視角進入雲端，看到正在發生的事情的全貌，同時也能在必要時深入細節。

The great strategic thinkers I know are able to move between those levels of analysis and do so fluidly and also intentionally. Structured problem solving is what you do with teams to help them engage in rigorous processes of framing and solving the most consequential problems that the organization faces.

我所認識的那些偉大的戰略思想家都能夠在這些分析層面之間遊刃有餘，而且還能有意識地做到這一點。結構化問題解決是你與團隊一起做的事情，幫助他們參與制定和解決組織面臨的最重要問題的嚴格過程。

The structured part is really essential because it ensures that you're doing a good job of truly solving the right problem.

有條理的部分確實非常重要，因為它能確保你做得很好，真正解決了正確的問題。

That's the framing part.

這就是框架的部分。

And then generating and testing the right options so that you end up with a robust solution.

然後生成並測試正確的方案，最終形成一個強大的解決方案。

There can be many stakeholders involved that have an interest in what happens.

可能會有許多利益相關者參與其中，並對所發生的事情感興趣。

And so it's essential, therefore, to establish a process that moves people through that framing and solving of problems such that at the end of the process, they're in alignment, if not enthusiastic, about what happens going forward. At its core, visioning is about identifying the future to which you are trying to move your organization, a compelling portrait of where we are going to go together and why we should feel excited about getting there.

是以，至關重要的是建立一個流程，讓人們通過這個流程來構思和解決問題，這樣在流程結束時，他們即使不熱衷於未來的發展，也會保持一致。就其核心而言，願景規劃就是要確定你的組織要邁向的未來，即我們要共同邁向的令人信服的未來，以及我們為什麼要為邁向未來而感到興奮。

There's a core tension you need to manage between ambition and achievability.

你需要在雄心壯志和可實現性之間找到一個核心平衡點。

Err too far on the side of ambition, you're creating something that's unrealistic, people won't feel like they can really accomplish, and ultimately does exactly what you're trying not to do, which is to demotivate people.

如果過於偏重雄心壯志，你所創造的東西就會不切實際，人們就會覺得自己無法真正完成任務，最終做了你不想做的事，即打擊人們的積極性。

Err too far on the side of achievability, it's too easy, it's not ambitious enough, it's not exciting for people, it doesn't really fundamentally motivate them. And finally, politics is an essential part of every human organization.

過於偏重可實現性，就會顯得過於簡單，不夠雄心勃勃，不能讓人興奮，不能真正從根本上激發他們的積極性。最後，政治是每個人類組織不可或缺的一部分。

And there's simply no avoiding it.

這是無法迴避的。

There are certain tactics that you can use that will help you influence people.

有一些策略可以幫助你影響他人。

A classic example of this is what's known as sequencing strategy.

一個典型的例子就是所謂的排序策略。

This is really about being thoughtful about the order in which you communicate with people and how you engage, in order to build momentum in the directions you want the organization to go.

這實際上就是要深思熟慮地確定與人溝通的順序和參與的方式，以便為組織的發展方向造勢。

I'm going to talk first to Christian, and then I'm going to talk to Stephanie.

我要先和克里斯蒂安談談，然後再和斯蒂芬妮談談。

And if I have Christian and Stephanie on board, then getting Robert on board is going to be easier.

如果有克里斯蒂安和斯蒂芬妮加入，讓羅伯特加入就更容易了。

And I need to be careful in the process not to overplay things in a way that causes Trudy to feel threatened by what I'm trying to do and start to do things to mobilize potential opposition.

在這一過程中，我需要小心謹慎，不要過度渲染，導致特魯迪對我的努力感到威脅，並開始採取行動動員潛在的反對力量。

Just think about this process of moving people step-by-step to a place that they wouldn't have gone in a single leap. The people making the decisions about leaders' futures are more and more weighting the importance of strategic thinking capability in their decisions about whether you will advance or not.

試想一下，在這個過程中，人們一步一步地走向他們不可能一蹴而就的地方。決定領導者未來的人在決定你是否晉升時，越來越重視戰略思維能力的重要性。

And this just amplifies the importance of focusing as much as possible on building your strategic thinking capability.

而這恰恰說明了儘可能集中精力培養戰略思維能力的重要性。

It really is the fast track to the top.

這確實是通往巔峰的捷徑。

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要想從世界上最偉大的思想家那裡學到更多，請為您的企業獲取 Big Think Plus。