Name: 5 分鐘歷史課--點陣保麗龍 (The Dot-Com Bubble - 5 Minute History Lesson)
Uploaded: 2024-10-02T09:38:51.000Z
Duration: 6 min 58 s

基礎被動語態

Go to squarespace.com slash ThePlainBagel to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain using code ThePlainBagel.

訪問 squarespace.com，輸入 ThePlainBagel，使用代碼 ThePlainBagel，即可在首次購買網站或域名時節省 10% 的折扣。

In the world of finance, we are often quick to forget the tragedies of the past.

在金融界，我們往往很快就會忘記過去的悲劇。

Yet valuable lessons are to be had by exploring their causes and effects.

然而，通過探索其原因和影響，我們可以獲得寶貴的經驗教訓。

After all, in a world of ever-changing rules, products, and services, history is the one constant that can guide us through the ambiguity.

畢竟，在規則、產品和服務千變萬化的世界裡，歷史是唯一不變的東西，可以指引我們走出模糊。

So let's take a 5-minute history lesson on today's plain bagel.

是以，讓我們用 5 分鐘的時間來了解一下今天的普通百吉餅的歷史。

It's early 1993, and the internet is kind of poopy.

現在是 1993 年初，互聯網有點糟糕。

Sure, the ability to transfer data globally and developments like the World Wide Web have been revolutionary, but only 2.3% of the US population is actually online.

當然，全球數據傳輸能力和網際網路等技術的發展具有革命性意義，但實際上只有 2.3% 的美國人口上網。

Because unless you're a techie, it's not that easy to use.

因為除非你是技術人員，否則它並不那麼容易使用。

That is until the release of Mosaic, a user-friendly home internet browser that shows pictures alongside text.

直到 Mosaic 的問世，這是一款用戶友好型家用互聯網瀏覽器，可在顯示文字的同時顯示圖片。

Suddenly doing the internets isn't so hard.

Lean web traffic to increase 1000% within a month of Mosaic's release.

精益網絡流量在 Mosaic 發佈後一個月內增加了 1000%。

And as the web starts bumping, entrepreneurs make a move.

隨著網絡的發展，企業家們也開始行動起來。

After all, with the internet in its infancy, there's a lot of untasked potential.

畢竟，互聯網還處於起步階段，還有很多潛力沒有挖掘出來。

And with interest rates at their lowest points in the 70s, starting a company is easier than bringing cups to a potluck.

現在的利率處於上世紀 70 年代的最低點，創辦一家公司比帶杯子參加聚餐還容易。

So before long, all kinds of dot-com companies start showing up.

於是，沒過多久，各種網絡公司開始出現。

From online retailers to search engines, early social media pages to...

從在線零售商到搜索引擎，從早期的社交媒體頁面到...

But the real gold rush comes late 1995, all thanks to a company called Netscape Communications.

但真正的淘金熱出現在 1995 年底，這要歸功於一家名為網景通信的公司。

You see, Netscape has launched its own internet browser, known as Navigator.

網景公司推出了自己的互聯網瀏覽器 Navigator。

And with its faster, easier-to-use interface, it's made quick work of Mosaic.

憑藉更快、更易用的界面，它很快就超越了 Mosaic。

But anyway, even though Netscape is losing money to costs, the founders decide to cash in on the browser's success through an initial public offering.

但不管怎麼說，儘管網景公司的成本在不斷增加，但創始人還是決定通過首次公開募股，從瀏覽器的成功中套現。

Now, normally investors are looking for companies with solid profits to invest in.

現在，投資者通常會尋找利潤穩健的公司進行投資。

每個人和他們的狗都在使用導航儀。

And with internet adoption accelerating, you'd have to be a dummy to pass up on the opportunity.

隨著互聯網普及速度的加快，如果你錯過了這個機會，那你就太笨了。

So the stock goes public, and on its first day of trading, its price doubles.

於是，這隻股票上市了，上市交易的第一天，股價就翻了一番。

With investor demand pushing the company's market capitalization to $2.7 billion in a matter of minutes.

投資者的需求在短短几分鐘內將該公司的市值推高到 27 億美元。

Something that took General Dynamics 43 years.

通用動力公司花了 43 年的時間才做到這一點。

It's a huge success, with Netscape reaching rockstar levels of fame, inspiring a wave of entrepreneurs and exciting investors.

它取得了巨大成功，網景公司的名氣達到了搖滾明星的水準，激發了創業者和投資者的熱情。

And with the proverbial gates of Al-Hala now open, we enter the internet age.

隨著眾所周知的 Al-Hala 大門的打開，我們進入了互聯網時代。

As people flock to achieve their own online glory.

當人們蜂擁而至，以實現自己的網絡榮耀時。

Before you know it, auction sites, web portals, internet radio, and even a food delivery service are coming online.

不知不覺中，拍賣網站、門戶網站、網絡電臺，甚至送餐服務都紛紛上線。

With new companies revolutionizing life as we know it, and experiencing huge sales growth right out the gate.

新公司正在徹底改變我們所熟知的生活，並在一開始就取得了巨大的銷售增長。

Not to mention investors are tossing money at every IPO they can.

更不用說投資者對每一次首次公開募股都傾注了大量資金。

Now, sure, companies are swinging out their Yahoo for this growth.

當然，現在各家公司都在為這一增長揮舞樂虎國際_樂虎國際app_樂虎國際APP下載_樂虎國際手機客戶端。

So after costs, their profits are pretty, well, non-existent.

是以，除去成本，他們的利潤非常低。

But hey, this is the internet we're talking about.

自切片面包問世以來的最大事件

If you want to make it big, you've got to be spending to grow your business.

如果你想大展宏圖，就必須花錢發展業務。

And besides, with the banking industry convincing investors that losses now just mean larger profits down the road, there's plenty of money keeping the dream alive.

此外，銀行業讓投資者相信，現在的虧損意味著未來會有更大的利潤，是以有足夠的資金來維持這個夢想。

So dot-coms continue to splurge, spending investor funds on advertising, acquisitions, fancy offices, fat paychecks, and all-expenses-paid vacations and parties for employees.

是以，網絡公司繼續大肆揮霍，將投資者的資金用於廣告、收購、豪華辦公室、高薪，以及員工的全額假期和聚會。

在大多數情況下，日子都還不錯。

By 1999, the tech-heavy Nasdaq has doubled, with even telecom and equipment companies getting in on the action.

到 1999 年，技術重鎮納斯達克指數翻了一番，甚至電信和設備公司也加入了這一行列。

Building out infrastructure and enabling companies to explore the boundless frontiers of the internet.

建設基礎設施，讓企業能夠探索互聯網的無限疆域。

But before long, troubling tides begin to emerge.

但不久之後，令人不安的潮汐開始出現。

With sales growth becoming the only thing investors care about, companies are employing growth-at-all-cost tactics.

隨著銷售增長成為投資者唯一關心的問題，企業開始不惜一切代價追求增長。

Selling units at a loss, spending excessively on marketing, and making hasty acquisitions to keep up their growth.

虧本銷售，在營銷上花費過多，為了保持增長而匆忙收購。

Worse yet, some companies are simply adding dot-com to their name to get in on the hype, with others going public without even having a finished product.

更有甚者，一些公司只是在自己的名字上加了一個 dot-com，以達到炒作的目的，還有一些公司甚至連成品都沒有就上市了。

But investors have been convinced to look past outdated metrics like profitability and valuation.

但投資者已被說服，不再看重盈利能力和估值等過時的指標。

So they're buying up anything with a pulse and a domain.

是以，他們正在收購任何有脈搏和域名的東西。

Something that only intensifies when rumors surface of an impending computer calamity, Y2K.

當有關計算機災難--千年蟲--即將來臨的傳言浮出水面時，這種情況只會更加嚴重。

A calendar bug that threatens to end technology as we know it.

一個日曆錯誤可能會終結我們所知的技術。

The scare leads to a wave of computer equipment upgrades, boosting business activity and pushing markets into an outright mania.

這種恐慌引發了計算機設備升級的浪潮，促進了商業活動，並將市場推向徹底的狂熱。

Stocks start seeing 400, 500, nearly 700% returns on their first day of trading.

股票上市首日就能獲得 400%、500% 甚至近 700% 的回報。

With other takers rising above 1,000% in 1999 alone.

僅 1999 年一年，其他投標人的投資回報率就超過了 1,000%。

People are leaving their day jobs to trade stocks full-time.

人們離開日常工作，全職從事股票交易。

And as more companies battle for online real estate, things start to feel like a fever dream.

隨著越來越多的公司爭奪網絡地產，一切開始變得像一場噩夢。

Whoopi Goldberg is advertising in Crypto Wannabe.

烏比-戈德堡在《Crypto Wannabe》中做廣告。

And an online retailer has spent millions to make a stock puppet a nationally recognized mascot after mere months of existence.

一家在線零售商花費數百萬美元，讓一個庫存木偶在短短几個月後成為全國知名的吉祥物。

And on March 10th, 2000, the Nasdaq Composite Index hits 5,048 points.

2000 年 3 月 10 日，納斯達克綜合指數達到 5048 點。

A bubble 200 times the size of underlying earnings.

But while it would take the index only five years to rise over 500%, it would take only half that to undo it all.

不過，雖然指數只需五年時間就能上漲超過 500%，但只需五年時間的一半就能將其全部挽回。

You see, with the Federal Reserve planning on aggressively tightening monetary policy and insiders cashing out, selling pressure has been on the rise.

要知道，隨著美聯儲計劃積極收緊貨幣政策，內部人士紛紛套現，拋售壓力一直在上升。

Not to mention that, after crazy spending, people just don't need as much computer equipment or online retailers.

更不用說，在瘋狂消費之後，人們不再需要那麼多電腦設備或在線零售商。

So on March 13th, when it's announced that Japan has entered a recession, the Nasdaq slips.

是以，3 月 13 日，當日本宣佈進入經濟衰退時，納斯達克指數下滑。

Suffering its fourth largest loss up to that point.

遭受了迄今為止的第四大損失。

It's enough to spook investors and get them questioning whether their companies can survive without their chief capital.

這足以嚇壞投資者，讓他們懷疑自己的公司在沒有首席資本的情況下能否生存下去。

As the taps turn off, dot-coms find themselves burning through cash.

隨著水龍頭的關閉，網絡公司發現自己的現金消耗殆盡。

And with promised profits failing to materialize, things go from Mamma Mia to Red Wedding real quick.

由於承諾的利潤未能兌現，事情很快就從《媽媽咪呀》變成了《紅色婚禮》。

Within months, companies that had reached $100 million valuations become worthless.

幾個月內，估值達到 1 億美元的公司變得一文不值。

And markets tumble as management mishaps and even fraud come to light.

隨著管理失誤甚至欺詐行為的曝光，市場也隨之下跌。

By March of 2001, the U.S. is in a recession.

2001 年 3 月，美國陷入經濟衰退。

And on October 9th, 2002, the Nasdaq bottoms out.

2002 年 10 月 9 日，納斯達克指數觸底反彈。

At 1,114 points, a 77.9% decline from its peak.

1114 點，比最高點下降了 77.9%。

Over 415,000 IT jobs would be lost as a result of the tech crash.

技術崩潰將導致超過 415,000 個 IT 工作崗位流失。

And it would take the Nasdaq 15 years to recover.

納斯達克指數需要 15 年才能恢復。

While some dot-coms would survive and actually go on to prosper, half would fail by 2004.

雖然一些網絡公司得以倖存並繼續繁榮發展，但到 2004 年，有一半的網絡公司將倒閉。

With many others becoming but shadows of their former selves.

還有許多人變得只剩下昔日的影子。

Oh, and as for Netscape, the company that arguably kicked this all off?

哦，至於網景公司（Netscape），這家公司可以說是這一切的始作俑者？

It would lose its market share to a program released just a week after its IPO, Internet Explorer.

它的市場份額將被上市一週後發佈的 Internet Explorer 所取代。

And while AOL would acquire the company, its name, and that of thousands more, would eventually fade into obscurity.

雖然美國在線收購了這家公司，但它的名字，以及成千上萬個其他公司的名字，最終都將淡出人們的視線。

It goes to show that not all that glitters is gold.

這說明，並非所有閃光的都是金子。

And while a great idea can send stock prices to unfathomable levels, it takes but a reality check to pop a bubble.

雖然一個偉大的想法能讓股價達到深不可測的水準，但要戳破一個保麗龍，只需要一個現實的檢驗。

Despite the dot-com crash, the internet, and by extension the web, did of course go on to revolutionize the world.

儘管出現了網絡公司崩潰，但互聯網和網絡確實給世界帶來了革命性的變化。

Just not in the way many investors had hoped for.

只是許多投資者並沒有如願以償。

In fact, while the number of websites online grew during the bubble, it continued rising after the crash.

事實上，雖然在線網站的數量在保麗龍期間有所增長，但在崩潰之後仍在繼續上升。